Tough Forecast For Oklahoma

/Tough Forecast For Oklahoma

Tough Forecast For Oklahoma

Good evening bloggers,

It snowed again in Kansas City today.  0.2″ accumulated at KCI Airport with our official total today.  This puts KC up to 8.3″ for the season. Today was Kansas City’s seventh accumulation of the season so far, which included the earliest recorded accumulation in KC history on October 14th when 0.2″ also fell at the airport.  We will not get a little break, a big warm up next week ahead of a storm system, and the next possible storm around mid to late next week.

Oklahoma has a very difficult forecast.  A wet storm is developing, and look where the surface low is located:

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The main low is predicted to be deep in Mexico on Friday afternoon.  The farther south position has now created less cold air for this system to work with, and the northern edge of the precipitation shield is still predicted to be in the form of rain. As the main storm approaches, the northern edge will likely include more wintry types of precipitation, and this is where the biggest challenge has been placed on the meteorologists and weather forecasters across the Sooner state, and also adjacent regions.  This next map shows the GFS model prediction valid Friday Night In The Big Town:

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Eventually, that northern edge will likely begin producing some heavy snow and sleet:

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So, imagine you are a weather forecaster for Oklahoma City.  The challenge is rather high, and we will look into this in tomorrows blog.

For KC, we get a few days break. Our next storm is due in around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. We will begin this discussion in the comments section on Weather2020.com as we share in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great Thursday night!

Gary

2018-12-07T08:15:14+00:00December 6th, 2018|General|33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. Hockeynut69 December 6, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

    First

  2. Richard December 6, 2018 at 7:21 pm - Reply

    Second
    A warmup can’t come soon enough.
    I have a feeling we won’t see much snow the rest of Dec.
    Rain yes, snow not much if at all

  3. CraigMac December 6, 2018 at 7:29 pm - Reply

    I have no evidence for this, but I believe we will have at least two more snow events before Dec 31. The pattern has been too wet and cold for this pattern to just stop.

  4. L.B December 6, 2018 at 7:41 pm - Reply

    I am liking this! somewhat. Big snow all around us. some precipitation in the snowy form. This should be the winter that kinda pleases everybody as long as it does not last to long. A mini blizzard here and there a few soft snow showers here and there. I just pray spring comes early and we actually have one

  5. Terry December 6, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

    Gary did say yesterday but hes thanking there is increasing chance of an Arctic outbreak around Christmas week or before the new years.

  6. Terry December 6, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png GFS 18z Feast your eyes on this for next week come be snow!

  7. Emaw December 6, 2018 at 9:46 pm - Reply

    7th!

  8. Emaw December 6, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

    Arctic shmarctic, pacific sir will rule!

    • Terry December 6, 2018 at 10:19 pm - Reply

      Lol nope will see

    • thetophat December 7, 2018 at 6:35 am - Reply

      Big warmup coming…………….likely after an arctic invasion.

  9. Supercell December 6, 2018 at 10:16 pm - Reply

    00z GFS doesn’t show much snow for Oklahoma or Arkansas. Think how disappointed snow lovers in northern Arkansas are watching snow forecasts dwindle from historic 10-20 inches of snow down to maybe zip. Ouch

  10. Terry December 6, 2018 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png GFS 00z for next week Friday feast your eyes on this a little bit colder this be a heck of Storm snow maybe.

  11. Terry December 6, 2018 at 10:29 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png GFS 00z next Friday A better picture for next week Friday 14th

    • Heat Miser December 6, 2018 at 11:10 pm - Reply

      mabye, but a week ago some models showed a heck of a storm over us this weekend. A week out means very little with these models.

  12. Stl78(winon,mn) December 7, 2018 at 3:35 am - Reply

    Warm air is goin to b a problem for u guys. It may very well be a problem of us up north as well.

  13. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 4:59 am - Reply

    I totally don’t get it. This is the Rocky trough coming up but we have so much warm air – it’s almost like the surface pattern and the upper level pattern are not in synch. Wonder if there’s 2 LRCs – one for the 500 mb level, and one for the surface?

    • Clint December 7, 2018 at 5:40 am - Reply

      Great point because temps resemble more of the mid October part of the pattern but the storm track is clearly in the early November part. It would explain alot.

      • Clint December 7, 2018 at 5:42 am - Reply

        Nothing about November was warm and mid October was not wet.

    • Mike Holm December 7, 2018 at 6:07 am - Reply

      It’s the same but different

      • thetophat December 7, 2018 at 6:37 am - Reply

        Perhaps back to “not in the right spot”. Takes many ingredients coming together just right (or wrong for snow haters like me) to have a blizzard like last month. Still doubt we see anything like that the rest of the winter/early spring.

        • Gary December 7, 2018 at 6:41 am - Reply

          Oh we will a few more times!

          • thetophat December 7, 2018 at 7:27 am - Reply

            Snow agree completely. A raging blizzard like that I don’t know……………but like I said weather is just a hobby of mine. Why I love reading your blogs.

          • Anonymous December 7, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

            no we wont

        • Terry December 7, 2018 at 7:37 am - Reply

          We are in a good spot in the LRC pattern. We’re not gonna get every storm .

    • Gary December 7, 2018 at 6:43 am - Reply

      There is one fOOdl3! Everything is in sync! We are just experiencing this unique pattern!

      • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 7:25 am - Reply

        Temps and pattern synchs up with second time I saw this feature so maybe it’s the first and third times I saw this feature were harmonics and if so this is a very long LRC.

      • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

        Gary, I really miss you providing maps showing how this storm matches up with the LRC. I mean for those of us who think we have it all figured out it would be nice for verification or to show we are wrong and where to look to see what we are getting wrong. I know you don’t want to give away the secret formula, but in reality I think that’s what made me believe and then see the LRC – seeing is believing, per se. Just like in grade school, if you don’t show your work, it’s harder to trust an answer – especially when external factors can change the results.

        • Richard December 7, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

          Agree

  14. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 7:28 am - Reply

    I think what also has to be brought up is that the LRC dictates 500mb low tracks and will not control temperatures, the temperatures can be relative to the airmass – i.e. if a storm pulled in cold air one time it came through it will pull in cold air again, but if the cold air that is in place is only mild then it will not pull in cold air like it did the previous time it came through.

    Also at no point did we ever have a Arctic airmass for these storms to tap into. The whole “North Central US trough” feature created scenarios where the pressure above the trough over the Dakotas/Montana/MN were cold enough to be our source of cold air – not the Arctic. It’s almost as if the source region for cold air this winter will be the northern US.

    • Three7s December 7, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

      Which means it will be next to impossible to predict whether or not storms in future cycles will be snow producers or not.

      • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

        Unfortunately, I totally agree 100% with this.

  15. Clint December 7, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    I feel like this is where the MJO, AO, and NAO weigh in. It sure would be nice if Gary could help us understand.

    • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

      I would not be shocked if the whole LRC was the same storms coming in a brand new pattern by result of the AO / NAO influencing storm tracks when the storms track so far north in June/July/August that their timing/placement is not determined by the LRC anymore. Likewise, moisture and thus forced warm air advection may be influenced by the MJO/ENSO more than the LRC because while the LRC can dictate where storms move, the ENSO/MJO can influence the amount of fuel available for storms to syphon.

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