The Sun Returns During This Cold Weather Pattern

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Good morning bloggers,

The month began with dense fog, lightning, thunder, heavy rain, snow, graupel, and cold.  In Kansas City we had precipitation fall the first four days of the month and we are already at 1.00″ liquid, and it has snowed 0.3″ after 0.1″ was recorded yesterday, so this total below needs to be updated to 8.1″ so far this season:

11

We are usually waiting for our first inch of snow at this time of the year, and in recent years we have had to wait until January or February for that first inch of snow in KC.  The first inch happened the Sunday after Thanksgiving this year when 5.8″ of snow was reported at KCI Airport.  There are more chances showing up on the models including a slight chance of snow later tonight:

1

The map above shows the chance of snow later tonight.  The chance is near zero up around Maryville; around 20% chance at KCI Airport; a 30% chance on the south side of the city; and a 50% chance around Pleasanton, KS to Clinton, MO farther south.  The chance opens up around 3 AM tonight into 10 AM on Thursday morning.  It will be caused by a wave in the northern branch of the jet stream and some jet dynamics.  The new NAM came out this morning with one thin band of snow that formed just south of I-70 and then moved quickly away.  This is a very difficult thing to predict, and this is why we have such a low chance of snow for this situation.

The Next Storm System:

image3

A winter storm watch is in effect for parts of Oklahoma, which now includes Oklahoma City.  I began my career working in Oklahoma after graduating from the University of Oklahoma with my Bachelors of Science degree in Meteorology in 1985.  Some of my fellow students remember me discussing the cycling pattern with them in the early 1980s, and it was the huge winter of 1987-1988 when I began truly seeing and experiencing the organization to the chaos in the upper levels above us within the troposphere.  Oklahoma City rarely gets hit by major winter storms, and in 1987 there was a one foot snow storm in early December.  A second one foot snow storm hit around 45 days later that winter in January, and it was around that time I noticed that the storm systems tracked, produced, and looked quite similar.  It couldn’t possibly by a coincidence, and the seeds for the LRC began.  Let’s see what happens with this next storm.  As, this part of the pattern will be returning over and over again through next September as the pattern cycles.

Looking farther ahead:

Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 7.40.35 AM

Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 7.40.21 AM

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation are suddenly being modeled to dip negative again around the middle of December.  I have predicted that there is a much increased chance of our first Arctic outbreak of the season around Christmas week to the end of the year.  And, this sudden shift on these indexes fit better than what it was showing yesterday, which was higher positives on these indexes.  The LRC would strongly support the conditions favorable for a big ridge forming off the west coast extending up to eastern Alaska and western Canada within a couple of weeks.  In the first cycle of the LRC, there was no build of of Arctic Air. This is no longer the case as temperatures have dropped up over the far northern part of North America, down to around 30 degrees below zero.  So, this time, when the pattern becomes favorable for high pressure to build at the surface, there will be a large Arctic air mass for it to pull from. I am still uncertain of the exact date range, however, and we will pin this down soon.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and much warmer. Expect a southwest breeze around 15 mph.  High:  46°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a chance of rain-sleet-snow around 3 to 6 AM.  The chance is higher south and east of KC.  Low:  32°
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy with a few snowflakes and colder. Areas south of I-70 have a slight chance of less than 1″ of snow.  Temperatures dropping into the upper 20s or staying in the lower 30s with winds out of the north around 20 mph.  Wind chills in the teens.

Let’s see how the models trend today.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day! And, head over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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RossBo
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RossBo

New blog

JC
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JC

Could Iola Kansas see any decent totals from this or still too far north?

Jack
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Jack

NAM still slams Oklahoma… we will need to see a 200 mile shift north to see anything.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jack,

Unfortunately, I do not see it happening with this system. At least not enough to produce anything of significance for the metro area, but hang on to your hat as this ride is just getting started in terms of winter weather. Active period is very near and the next cycle, in my opinion, is going to be exciting.

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

poof poof poof poof rthege track is southn for this weekend sorry heat mizer

Jack
Guest
Jack

There is no poof going on cause we have never had anything to start with.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

The track has always been South so not sure about any poof. Accept it or not, this winter will hold a number of winter storms for our region and yes, I believe we have another chance at a blizzard-like storm this year. If you do not like snow, you are really going to hate the next 2 cycles

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…snowhater is going to need some serious therapy before this winter is over

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Track has been south since at least 5 days out with storm off shore as well, if I may add, correct? So basically, models ARE somewhat trustworthy more than five days out AND while storm is still offshore. Who’d a thought.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL..nice try snowhater….the storm was never forecast to hit our area…so that doesn’t qualify a poof. You gave it the good ol’ college try though. 😉

Richard
Guest
Richard

I agree the best bet is not to bet.
Thats just how things go.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I don’t think anyone believed it would happen.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Not sure if anyone remembers this far back but for the rainfall event on November 3-6th did the models shift it north a lot from the track it was forecast to have 4-5 days out?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I don’t know, but I believe the Nov 8 snow event got shifted north?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I do recall that very well. Just forgot if the prior rain event had the same model trends

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Happy Wednesday afternoon to you sir!! Very nice day outside indeed!! Just a few random thoughts from someone who doesn’t seem to know how to write something very short….no coincidence I’m such a Rush fan huh??  Thus, I don’t blame anyone who skips this!! Lawrence has done very well with precip so far in this pattern. I have recorded close to 10 inches of liquid precip to this point but more telling is the fact that Washington Creek is running for the first time since October of 2017 as is my neighbor’s lake. With that, we have had close… Read more »

Tony
Guest
Tony

The off run models are not as accurate. The 18z has been more north lately, as F00 mentioned

Kristi
Guest
Kristi

What does tomorrow am look like?

Jack
Guest
Jack

Nam has a strong storm tracking along and just north of the Oklahoma Texas border bringing close to 2 feet of snow in Oklahoma, 7-10 inches in Wichita, and about 3-5 inches in Emporia. We need to watch if there is northern trend over the next 4-5 runs… if nothing appears to be trending at all I think we will be out of luck.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If you go by climatology this is more likely to track north w/ less qpf but higher ratios

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I’ve noticed 18z runs always push north.

JasonAtt
Guest
JasonAtt

Is this yesterday’s or the latest? BC, that’s a lot more than what I thought.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

That would need a whole lot of push to the north to get to Northwest Missouri, I also think the NAM is much wetter/more aggressive with snow totals than other models. Enjoy the sunshine and see if we can get some more sunny days and a few more warm ones here before a true arctic outbreak.

Would be nice to get a good snow cover before the really cold arctic air too.

Paul
Guest
Paul

Is there still a chance for this weekend? For snow that is!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I will note that Joe Bastardi said he thinks its coming further north

Jack
Guest
Jack

NAM is further north.. still coming out.

Clint
Guest
Clint

It is starting to look like the CMC. Need a little more push to the north.

Anghara
Guest
Anghara

I see pollution has taken the sun away and hidden it behind a veil again. Great. Can’t have one day without it and now my eyes are burning. This happens a lot.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Skycast is Green……
Those are cirrus clouds, not pollution
Maybe you have poor indoor air quality. It’s often worse Inside our homes than outside

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What are you talking about?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Models are all over the place for the 14-21st. I don’t think any of them have a clue.

Roger
Guest
Roger
REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I wouldn’t call MT “Talent”, although I buy the high price. Nice enough guy he just doesn’t have a feel for KC weather even after all his experience. JL is long deserving of a head MET position, they are crazy if they dont promote him he is awesome

matt
Guest
matt

Penner? Anderson? Horner? Bender? Anthony? Weekend Evening guy KSHB? Pete G.?

Richard
Guest
Richard

Penner ?? You are joking.
No way will he ever leave kshb or Gary or the WX2020 team.
Especially for fox4. Or any other local station.

Mark
Guest
Mark

I vote for Michelle Bogowith.

morganu
Member
morganu

Hardly any cold air in the extended. Warm Pacific air looks like it’s going to infiltrate nearly the entire country.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Haha

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s the same but different.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

I’ve seen a couple of other weather sites predicting a “blow torch” New Years across most of the USA. Shall see if that pans out.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Dec. 22 is MO Alternative Deer season. Last year I hunted on a day that only had a high of like 3F, and it was already -2F by the time I got back to truck that evening. Ice was so think by the end of that arctic spell I swear you could have driven a tank over it no problem which is rare in this region. Lets just say I would rather not be hunting in that kind of weather this year, its awful! I am glad to see this weekend storm fizzle, we have already gone through ALOT of… Read more »

JimT
Guest
JimT

Gary,
Good sunny 🌞 morning,

With the mentioned of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation negitive tilt later this month, along with a possible Artic Outbreak, would u think this also bring with it more snows?❄❄

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I don’t know how KC faired, but in eastern Iowa, we broke 17 records for the month of November, the most notable including: Coldest Nov by high temperature (4th coldest overall), two record cold temps, 3 daily record snowfalls, the monthly record total snowfall (15.1″), largest November snowstorm (12.1″), only November blizzard on record, 6 daily record snow depths, and monthly record snow depth of 10″. We also had 11 days with highs below freezing. Pretty incredible!

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

If this part of the pattern cycles back in late December/January, and then again in late Feb/early March, this could shape up to be one heck of a winter!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Most importantly it keeps it south of kc although the cmc brings it closer to kc on the 12z run.

Jack
Guest
Jack

12km nam has quite the strong storm in Oklahoma and Texas– if this were to pan out we would 3 major winter storms in the northern and southern plains the last 3 weekends, pretty crazy.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Gary: Based on the pattern do you see a higher or lower chance of winter storm systems being negatively tilted versus being positively tilted when they cycle through over the winter? I was just curious since your forecasting above normal snowfall and negatively tilted storms tend to be stronger just wondering if you think we will see more or less of these or do you think they will mostly be positively tilted systems. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Glad to see the sun today!! 🌞

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Second…where’s everyone else?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

First!!