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7:30 AM Update:

I will write up a new blog later today. For now, here is an update.  Take a look at Gower, just north of KC:

DtvGB4BU0AI-GG2.jpg-large

Over an inch has been reported just east of Gower, MO.  The snow band has increased over the KC metro area as well as you can see below:

Screen Shot 2018-12-06 at 7.18.59 AM

Temperatures are dropping, so there will be some slick spots.  KC metro will get anywhere from a dusting to up to around an inch of snow. This is our 12th date with snow reported at KCI Airport already this season.  This will end from northwest to southeast by noon.  Have a great morning, and again, look for the new blog later this afternoon after I have time to put it together. We will look ahead to both Chiefs games.

Previous Entry Below:

Good evening  bloggers,

The first ingredient for snow is the cold air, and there is a cold front heading this way:

10

It appears that conditions will be favorable for a band of snow to develop near KC, and it may initially be rain and sleet, then change to snow.  It is really a small and fast moving system.  A band may form in place right near KC around 5 to 7 AM, and then drift southeast before shifting off to the east before noon.  Here is one map I am showing at 10 PM with possible 1/2″ to 1″ amounts, most likely on grassy surfaces. Let’s see if this develops.

1

Gary

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Heat MiserBill in LawrenceTim in Lone JackShawnA1hoops Recent comment authors
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Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Happy Thursday again!! First of all, my comment above is kind of a duh comment….of course it is easy to say we are heading into warmer part when it is on all the models….duh!! I would respectfully argue that the “moderation/warm up” fits the LRC as far as my own personal analysis. Maybe that is a bit more apt post!!! LOL I tell ya….I would hate to be a snow lover in the Texas Panhandle or Oklahoma right now….what an up and down ride. The 18Z NAM takes all the snow away from Oklahoma and reduces the snow in Texas… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Thursday to you sir!! I would respectfully argue that we are about to enter into the “warmer” part of this pattern. Of course warmer for this pattern has been just average at best so we’re not talking some massive blow torch situation and today’s 12Z GFS pretty much showed that. Lawrence’s average high for this time of year ranges from about 42-44 degrees and most of the highs the GFS showed were there or just below. However, hard to get a good snow storm at 44 degrees or even in the upper 30’s which would be slightly below… Read more »

BSmike
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A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

The lack of cold air worries me but it’s still a week away so lots will change

Chris Paxton
Guest
Chris Paxton

Clint, can you orfood post a link for the storm in the 16th-17th timeframe?

Adam
Guest
Adam

I’ll get more on board once the Euro shows a significant storm here. So far, it doesn’t.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

People in the Carolinas are NOT prepared for a storm like this:
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Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

That would be the largest since jan 25 2000 storm that dropped 21″ there..

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Heat Miser’s mom lives in Asheville, NC…looks like they are gonna get socked!

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Storm for next weekend is on FV3 as well. It just blows it up east of KC. GFS explodes right over KC. Another fun storm to track…

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Wow the 12z GFS for next Friday-Saturday. Bring it!

Richard
Guest
Richard

f00d
Love it !! LOL

“This is the Nth time I’ve seen this feature since X and exactly XX days”

Will we get a Christmas surprise from Gary telling us we can once again talk about xx ?

Looks like OK City is not going to get buried like previously thought this weekend, according to their NWS statement on Facebook.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image look at this GFS

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

All the snow that collected in my yard is now gone – evaporated.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And a 3rd will trail several days later.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I got it. I can say that these produced for me in the last cycle.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Well 2 of them did.

Clint
Guest
Clint

So f00dl3, if your right about the cycle length then we should look for another storm around the 16th or 17th as well. I am just checking to see if I have my dates right.

Nick
Guest
Nick

the coating of snow that we got in St. Joe last sunday night, melted yesterday and then… unmelted this morning! lol I woke up and did a double take, lol 🙂

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the storm for next weekend because it has just been one model run showing snow for our area. As we have learned, one run does not make an accurate forecast. Also, we have learned this far out the models are not the most accurate either. It’s something to watch, but I would not issue a French Toast Warning just yet.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Forget the models. I think you can put a French Toast Watch for it, and I’ve been touting this date for a month now.

This is the Nth time I’ve seen this feature since X and exactly XX days between the feature. Even if it comes through positively tilted which I doubt it will, it still fits. Don’t look at the surface precipitation forecast maps to validate the models.

Clint
Guest
Clint

How did the low track the last time through?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NOT SPECIFYING LENGTHS SO PLEASE DO NOT DELETE! First trough: Northern branch ULL dove Lloyd minster AB -> Saskatoon SK -> Prince Albert SK Southern branch ULL dove Edmonton AB -> Miles City MT -> Bismark ND -> Winnipeg MTB Second trough: Northern branch ULL dove Vancouver BC -> Salt Lake City UT -> Cheyenne WY -> Vermilion Bay ON Southern branch ULL ran Bluff UT -> Dodge City KS -> Falls City NE -> Minneapolis MN and merged with Northern branch ULL Third trough Northern branch ULL dove Chamberlin SD -> Worthington MN -> Green Bay WI -> Wawa… Read more »

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Is it the end of the world if it is?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

oh brother

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; however, they are not entitled to their own facts.

Those who are not on the global warming train consistently provide facts to defend their stance. The alarmists just yell louder and name call when they see facts.

Facts beat no facts every time people.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I would like to see the satellites they used to measure greenhouse gasses 50,000 years ago. Were they collaborated to the same settings? I know the Ancient Egyptians had help building the Pyramids from other forces but didn’t know scientists have known about them and just are not telling us.

I Want to Believe….. in aliens monitoring our climate change and working with our government hiding evidence.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

They can measure greenhouse gases using ice core samples. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131105081228.htm That literally took 5 seconds to Google.

Shawn
Guest
Shawn

You’re usually pretty level-headed – why the resistance when we discuss climate change?

https://www.nature.com/articles/315045a0

Jordan
Guest
Jordan
Kurt
Guest
Kurt

It was a really pretty snow this morning with little wind, 2 inches just south of St. Joseph, but country roads at least mine frozen under the top layer of snow, city streets wet with the amount of treatment on them. Season total 16 inches now. Ground still not frozen under the snow (at least not the top layer)

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

I’m liking the looks of the storm for next weekend. Looks like to bomb out over southern ks and turn negative tilt

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

All good as long as these hit on WEEKENDS.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Blizzard #2?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Fits the LRC like a new pair of jeans.

comment image

Clint
Guest
Clint

What are your thoughts on snow potential? That run was a little warm for much snow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Warm air could be a problem. But it fits – the way the trough digs, the way the energy rides the trough. Not our first rodeo with that alignment. In fact not even our second.

morganu
Member
morganu

Lack of cold air source is a big concern.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere
Jordan
Guest
Jordan

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA The Heartland Institute? As soon as I saw Peter Ferrara’s name, I closed the article. These are the same morons that tried to lobby against smoking bans in public places for Philip Morris because “Secondhand smoke isn’t actually dangerous”.

Also, your article is over 6 years old.

You’re right, this was fun.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

And even before I posted, touche’. Knew what was coming from that side.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

LOL it’s a 6 year-old article written by an attorney associated with a billionaire-industrialist-funded thinktank that has been proven to espouse pseudoscience to further corporate interests, regardless of the public health risks. Anyone with half of a brain should be skeptical of any “scientific” conclusion they come to.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yes, that was published in May 2012, and how did that work out?
Top 10 warmest years (NOAA)
Rank Year Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
1 2016 0.94 1.69
2 2015 0.90 1.62
3 2017 0.84 1.51
4 2014 0.74 1.33
5 2010 0.70 1.26
6 2013 0.66 1.19
7 2005 0.65 1.17
8 2009 0.64 1.15
9 1998 0.63 1.13
10 2012 0.62 1.12

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Seems like this morning’s snow formed more north than what was expected. Any reason for that?

craig
Guest
craig

Gary, it’s only two days till the event and yet there’s an incredible disparity between the NAM and GFS for Oklahoma.
The GFS has mostly rain with only slight snow accumulations yet the NAM has 14-20″ of snow from OKC to Tulsa.
It’s a forecaster’s nightmare down there. Just wondering which solution you prefer at this point.
Thanks.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

NWS’s November 2018 weather stats for Topeka & Concordia
comment image?a7e8d1bd94f7ad80606db3b0f5c75a98

TerryPolo
Guest
TerryPolo

Almost 2 inches here Polo Mo with cars off the road and two of our buses stuck in the ditch

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

Pretty impressive that every time it MIGHT snow it HAS snowed. Love this LRC.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Nice moderate snow/sleet mix here, everything turning white

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I had never even heard of Gower before I read this blog.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

Little town just southeast of St. Joe down Hwy 169. Been there numerous times

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

My car got towed there once after I had an unlucky bout with some black ice just south of St. Joe. Fond memories.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Snowing in Platte County…more tiny ice balls than snow though.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We should see snow with at least 1 of the 3 pieces of energy that dive down the Rockys from the 14-21st.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Quick one inch here just south of St Joseph, that’s almost two inches since our rains Saturday and 15 inches for the season. Maybe another half inch before this ends this morning. Definitely a surprise snow for us up here

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

Saying uncle on the week end storm. When is our next dose of model watching? Next Wednesday?

Matt
Guest
Matt

It looks like Rain next week.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Looks like the bulk of this is staying north.

brad
Guest
brad

Snowing pretty good in st joe .

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

I’m loving the frequent light snow when I don’t expect to see any. Loving this winter so far!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

You are doing a fine job Freezy!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

You however are not, get your ass back to work, loser.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Looks like they are calling for some ice in parts Oklahoma per NWS out of Norman. I really wish the snow was over us, but we will have more chances.

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Third

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

It would be nice for the weekend storm to develop closer to KC. There has been an amazing frequency of snow so far this season.

RossBo
Guest
RossBo

First