Snow In The Morning

/Snow In The Morning

Snow In The Morning

7:30 AM Update:

I will write up a new blog later today. For now, here is an update.  Take a look at Gower, just north of KC:

DtvGB4BU0AI-GG2.jpg-large

Over an inch has been reported just east of Gower, MO.  The snow band has increased over the KC metro area as well as you can see below:

Screen Shot 2018-12-06 at 7.18.59 AM

Temperatures are dropping, so there will be some slick spots.  KC metro will get anywhere from a dusting to up to around an inch of snow. This is our 12th date with snow reported at KCI Airport already this season.  This will end from northwest to southeast by noon.  Have a great morning, and again, look for the new blog later this afternoon after I have time to put it together. We will look ahead to both Chiefs games.

Previous Entry Below:

Good evening  bloggers,

The first ingredient for snow is the cold air, and there is a cold front heading this way:

10

It appears that conditions will be favorable for a band of snow to develop near KC, and it may initially be rain and sleet, then change to snow.  It is really a small and fast moving system.  A band may form in place right near KC around 5 to 7 AM, and then drift southeast before shifting off to the east before noon.  Here is one map I am showing at 10 PM with possible 1/2″ to 1″ amounts, most likely on grassy surfaces. Let’s see if this develops.

1

Gary

2018-12-06T16:45:21+00:00December 5th, 2018|General|68 Comments

68 Comments

  1. RossBo December 5, 2018 at 10:05 pm - Reply

    First

  2. CraigMac December 5, 2018 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    It would be nice for the weekend storm to develop closer to KC. There has been an amazing frequency of snow so far this season.

  3. Fred Nolan December 6, 2018 at 12:16 am - Reply

    Third

  4. MattinLV December 6, 2018 at 12:35 am - Reply

    Looks like they are calling for some ice in parts Oklahoma per NWS out of Norman. I really wish the snow was over us, but we will have more chances.

  5. Freezemiser December 6, 2018 at 4:46 am - Reply

    I’m loving the frequent light snow when I don’t expect to see any. Loving this winter so far!

    • Heat Miser December 6, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

      You are doing a fine job Freezy!

      • Anonymous December 6, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

        You however are not, get your ass back to work, loser.

  6. brad December 6, 2018 at 5:54 am - Reply

    Snowing pretty good in st joe .

  7. Three7s December 6, 2018 at 6:14 am - Reply

    Looks like the bulk of this is staying north.

  8. Elaine Watson December 6, 2018 at 6:16 am - Reply

    Saying uncle on the week end storm. When is our next dose of model watching? Next Wednesday?

    • Matt December 6, 2018 at 6:28 am - Reply

      It looks like Rain next week.

  9. Kurt December 6, 2018 at 6:34 am - Reply

    Quick one inch here just south of St Joseph, that’s almost two inches since our rains Saturday and 15 inches for the season. Maybe another half inch before this ends this morning. Definitely a surprise snow for us up here

    • Gary December 6, 2018 at 6:40 am - Reply

      Wow. That band is impressive. It is just starting here.

  10. f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 7:15 am - Reply

    We should see snow with at least 1 of the 3 pieces of energy that dive down the Rockys from the 14-21st.

  11. snowflakeparkville December 6, 2018 at 7:36 am - Reply

    Snowing in Platte County…more tiny ice balls than snow though.

  12. Snow Miser December 6, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    I had never even heard of Gower before I read this blog.

    • Alex Pickman December 6, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

      Little town just southeast of St. Joe down Hwy 169. Been there numerous times

    • Dustin TheWind December 6, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

      My car got towed there once after I had an unlucky bout with some black ice just south of St. Joe. Fond memories.

  13. Weatherby Tom December 6, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

    Nice moderate snow/sleet mix here, everything turning white

  14. Rickmckc December 6, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Pretty impressive that every time it MIGHT snow it HAS snowed. Love this LRC.

  15. TerryPolo December 6, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    Almost 2 inches here Polo Mo with cars off the road and two of our buses stuck in the ditch

  16. KS Jones December 6, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    NWS’s November 2018 weather stats for Topeka & Concordia
    https://www.weather.gov/images/top/wxstory/Tab3FileL.png?a7e8d1bd94f7ad80606db3b0f5c75a98

  17. craig December 6, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    Gary, it’s only two days till the event and yet there’s an incredible disparity between the NAM and GFS for Oklahoma.
    The GFS has mostly rain with only slight snow accumulations yet the NAM has 14-20″ of snow from OKC to Tulsa.
    It’s a forecaster’s nightmare down there. Just wondering which solution you prefer at this point.
    Thanks.

  18. Psychotic Aardvark December 6, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Seems like this morning’s snow formed more north than what was expected. Any reason for that?

  19. NoBeachHere December 6, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply
    • Jordan December 6, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

      HAHAHAHAHAHAHA The Heartland Institute? As soon as I saw Peter Ferrara’s name, I closed the article. These are the same morons that tried to lobby against smoking bans in public places for Philip Morris because “Secondhand smoke isn’t actually dangerous”.

      Also, your article is over 6 years old.

      You’re right, this was fun.

      • Anonymous December 6, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

        And even before I posted, touche’. Knew what was coming from that side.

    • Jordan December 6, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

      LOL it’s a 6 year-old article written by an attorney associated with a billionaire-industrialist-funded thinktank that has been proven to espouse pseudoscience to further corporate interests, regardless of the public health risks. Anyone with half of a brain should be skeptical of any “scientific” conclusion they come to.

      • KS Jones December 6, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

        Yes, that was published in May 2012, and how did that work out?
        Top 10 warmest years (NOAA)
        Rank Year Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
        1 2016 0.94 1.69
        2 2015 0.90 1.62
        3 2017 0.84 1.51
        4 2014 0.74 1.33
        5 2010 0.70 1.26
        6 2013 0.66 1.19
        7 2005 0.65 1.17
        8 2009 0.64 1.15
        9 1998 0.63 1.13
        10 2012 0.62 1.12

  20. A1hoops December 6, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    I’m liking the looks of the storm for next weekend. Looks like to bomb out over southern ks and turn negative tilt

    • thetophat December 6, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

      All good as long as these hit on WEEKENDS.

    • Clint December 6, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      Blizzard #2?

    • f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply
      • Clint December 6, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

        What are your thoughts on snow potential? That run was a little warm for much snow.

      • f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

        Warm air could be a problem. But it fits – the way the trough digs, the way the energy rides the trough. Not our first rodeo with that alignment. In fact not even our second.

    • morganu December 6, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

      Lack of cold air source is a big concern.

  21. Kurt December 6, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    It was a really pretty snow this morning with little wind, 2 inches just south of St. Joseph, but country roads at least mine frozen under the top layer of snow, city streets wet with the amount of treatment on them. Season total 16 inches now. Ground still not frozen under the snow (at least not the top layer)

  22. Anonymous December 6, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

    Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; however, they are not entitled to their own facts.

    Those who are not on the global warming train consistently provide facts to defend their stance. The alarmists just yell louder and name call when they see facts.

    Facts beat no facts every time people.

  23. Hockeynut69 December 6, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    I wouldn’t put too much stock in the storm for next weekend because it has just been one model run showing snow for our area. As we have learned, one run does not make an accurate forecast. Also, we have learned this far out the models are not the most accurate either. It’s something to watch, but I would not issue a French Toast Warning just yet.

    • f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

      Forget the models. I think you can put a French Toast Watch for it, and I’ve been touting this date for a month now.

      This is the Nth time I’ve seen this feature since X and exactly XX days between the feature. Even if it comes through positively tilted which I doubt it will, it still fits. Don’t look at the surface precipitation forecast maps to validate the models.

      • Clint December 6, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

        How did the low track the last time through?

        • f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

          NOT SPECIFYING LENGTHS SO PLEASE DO NOT DELETE!

          First trough:
          Northern branch ULL dove Lloyd minster AB -> Saskatoon SK -> Prince Albert SK
          Southern branch ULL dove Edmonton AB -> Miles City MT -> Bismark ND -> Winnipeg MTB

          Second trough:
          Northern branch ULL dove Vancouver BC -> Salt Lake City UT -> Cheyenne WY -> Vermilion Bay ON
          Southern branch ULL ran Bluff UT -> Dodge City KS -> Falls City NE -> Minneapolis MN and merged with Northern branch ULL

          Third trough
          Northern branch ULL dove Chamberlin SD -> Worthington MN -> Green Bay WI -> Wawa ON
          Southern branch ULL formed UT/ID/WY border -> Carlsbad NM -> Little Rock AR -> Cape Gireadu MO -> Pittsburgh PH

          • Anonymous December 6, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

            Is it the end of the world if it is?

      • Anonymous December 6, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

        oh brother

  24. Nick December 6, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    the coating of snow that we got in St. Joe last sunday night, melted yesterday and then… unmelted this morning! lol I woke up and did a double take, lol 🙂

  25. Clint December 6, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

    So f00dl3, if your right about the cycle length then we should look for another storm around the 16th or 17th as well. I am just checking to see if I have my dates right.

  26. f00dl3 December 6, 2018 at 12:24 pm - Reply

    And a 3rd will trail several days later.

    • Clint December 6, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

      I got it. I can say that these produced for me in the last cycle.

      • Clint December 6, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

        Well 2 of them did.

  27. Mr. Pete December 6, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    All the snow that collected in my yard is now gone – evaporated.

  28. Richard December 6, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

    f00d
    Love it !! LOL

    “This is the Nth time I’ve seen this feature since X and exactly XX days”

    Will we get a Christmas surprise from Gary telling us we can once again talk about xx ?

    Looks like OK City is not going to get buried like previously thought this weekend, according to their NWS statement on Facebook.

  29. Supercell December 6, 2018 at 2:22 pm - Reply

    Wow the 12z GFS for next Friday-Saturday. Bring it!

  30. Supercell December 6, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Storm for next weekend is on FV3 as well. It just blows it up east of KC. GFS explodes right over KC. Another fun storm to track…

  31. Snow Miser December 6, 2018 at 2:50 pm - Reply

    People in the Carolinas are NOT prepared for a storm like this:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120618/namconus_asnow_seus_29.png

    • Tim in Lone Jack December 6, 2018 at 3:33 pm - Reply

      That would be the largest since jan 25 2000 storm that dropped 21″ there..

    • Heat Miser December 6, 2018 at 4:36 pm - Reply

      Heat Miser’s mom lives in Asheville, NC…looks like they are gonna get socked!

  32. Adam December 6, 2018 at 2:50 pm - Reply

    I’ll get more on board once the Euro shows a significant storm here. So far, it doesn’t.

  33. Chris Paxton December 6, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

    Clint, can you orfood post a link for the storm in the 16th-17th timeframe?

    • A1hoops December 6, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

      The lack of cold air worries me but it’s still a week away so lots will change

  34. Bill in Lawrence December 6, 2018 at 4:13 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Thursday to you sir!!

    I would respectfully argue that we are about to enter into the “warmer” part of this pattern. Of course warmer for this pattern has been just average at best so we’re not talking some massive blow torch situation and today’s 12Z GFS pretty much showed that. Lawrence’s average high for this time of year ranges from about 42-44 degrees and most of the highs the GFS showed were there or just below. However, hard to get a good snow storm at 44 degrees or even in the upper 30’s which would be slightly below average for this time of year in Lawrence.

    There should be a series of waves in this warmer period but the question will be can they create enough cold for snow….the true cold air from the NWT or Alberta will be mostly cut off during this time so I would argue the chances of a good snow event (3 plus inches) will be pretty low…maybe 30%.

    One last thought….I am sticking with the idea of Lawrence having just an average snow/frozen precip winter and today’s event is a an example of why. I think moisture wise for the this LRC we will be in great shape but for actual snow/freezing precip I think we will be around average. Every wave has just not quite dug enough to the south and west to get this area in the heavier snow bands. I think we will always be on the outer edge of the bigger snows keeping us close to average. Even in the blizzard Lawrence had some of the lighter amounts. I’m not complaining…compared to the last few years 16 inches will feel like 2012-2013 LOL and I did experience that blizzard so no complaints….just some thinking out loud!!

    Just some thoughts….as always could well be wearing a clown suit while eating crow when all is said and done!!! 🙂

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley

  35. Bill in Lawrence December 6, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    Happy Thursday again!!

    First of all, my comment above is kind of a duh comment….of course it is easy to say we are heading into warmer part when it is on all the models….duh!! I would respectfully argue that the “moderation/warm up” fits the LRC as far as my own personal analysis. Maybe that is a bit more apt post!!! LOL

    I tell ya….I would hate to be a snow lover in the Texas Panhandle or Oklahoma right now….what an up and down ride. The 18Z NAM takes all the snow away from Oklahoma and reduces the snow in Texas by quite a bit…..what a 180 from its 12Z run….ironically the GFS now gives Oklahoma more than the NAM does….the storm is weaker overall which I think does fit the LRC??? Still several runs to go so this is in no way a done deal….

    The discussion on this blog if this were here would be absolutely epic!!!! 🙂

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Leave A Comment