Is This A Wet Pattern Or A Dry Pattern?

/Is This A Wet Pattern Or A Dry Pattern?

Is This A Wet Pattern Or A Dry Pattern?

Good morning bloggers,

As we continue to wrap our weather minds into this year cycling pattern there are a few glaring and not so glaring things to think about.  Glaring Definition:  giving out or reflecting a strong dazzling light, highly obvious or conspicuous.  So, maybe I shouldn’t use the term glaring, since we are still figuring this pattern out.  Just take a look at the first 60 days or so of this years LRC:

Version 2

What does “glaringly” stick out is the area from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri extending northeast into southern Illinois.  This area is a few inches below average on precipitation during these first 60 days of this years LRC.  While most of Kansas and northern Missouri is well above average on precipitation, including 8″ of snow in Kansas City so far.  KCI had 0.2″ yesterday to put KC up to 8″ for the season, which is more than all of the past three years totals (7.7″ last year, 4.9″ two year ago, 5.9″ three years ago).  Just something to think about as we continue to figure this pattern out.

This next storm that is in question for the weekend:

The storm that is being analyzed for Friday into Saturday is still way off shore, and thus we are getting many varying solutions, most of which track the system farther south missing the KC region.  Since it is still off the coast, we will wait another couple of days before completely ruling out a farther north solution.  The trend, at the moment, is even farther south, and this is being weighed in heavily, and this is why I only went with a 20% chance of precipitation in KC from this system.

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If it takes the track shown above, then KC would barely get missed. It will either shift farther north, and then we will be changing our forecast, or it will track a bit farther south and not even be close. It is trying to target the area that has been driest in the past 60 days.  So, let’s see if this trend continues.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:  Summary….We are in a cold pool aloft, above us at around 15,000 to 20,000 feet and this has created an unstable air mass, which is leading to the snow showers. This will move away later today.

  • Today:  Cloudy with snow showers and a dusting likely.  There will be a light northwest breeze at around 5 to 10 mph.  High:  30°
  • Wednesday:  Becoming Sunny with a southwest breeze at 7 to 17 mph.  High:  48°
  • Thursday:  There is a 30% chance of early morning snow/sleet/rain showers.  Temperatures will drop during the morning with a high of 34°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let’s have a fun and educational discussion over on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

2018-12-05T08:16:00+00:00December 4th, 2018|General|103 Comments

103 Comments

  1. Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 7:50 am - Reply

    First!!

  2. Anonymous December 4, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

    There is dandruff falling from the sky in La Cygne. 🙂

  3. Brian Hart December 4, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

    Snowing pretty steady in gladstone and sticking pretty quickly on grass and roads

  4. Farmgirl December 4, 2018 at 8:04 am - Reply

    There is dandruff falling from the sky in La Cygne. 🙂

  5. Mike December 4, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

    If the trend targets the south area that has been driest in the past 60 days, it does not fit to the pattern that sets up two months ago according to lrc.

    • 39th&Blue December 4, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

      I thought the south had heavy rain late oct or early nov? I somewhat remember them getting a lot of rain since this lrc set up. Could be wrong. Thoughts anyone?

  6. Mr. Pete December 4, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    A very light snow here in Prairie Village now

  7. Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    It’s coming down pretty decent in downtown Independence. Any chance this could turn into an unexpected inch or two?

    • Three7s December 4, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

      I would be shocked.

      • Clint December 4, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

        Getting close to a 1/2in here in Warrensburg with big flakes falling.

        • snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

          Warrensburg seems to be at the center of it.

    • snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      Looking at radar…maybe in south St. Louis or in Marshall or Sedalia. But not here, unless the tiny bits of snow to the west suddenly organize.

      • Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

        Based on what I’ve seen so far this morning, I’m not actually trusting the radar.

        • snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

          Is it still coming down where you are? Southern Platte County is dry. Only clouds.

          • Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

            Yes, it’s been almost non-stop in downtown Independence. Sometimes heavier than other times, but constant nonetheless.

  8. Anonymous December 4, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Flurry Warning IndepMo. Neighborhood roads slippery.

  9. Terry December 4, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    Gary your take on this storm System coming in or this weekend? Do you think the models are handling it wrong on the south track or not. Because you’re said that is targeting the parts are the areas where they have been the drives for the last 60 days?

    • Terry December 4, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

      I mean the have been the drives for the last 60 days and do you support a more of a North track? Or what’s LRC pattern In is this a repeat storm the has come through already?

      • Tony December 4, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

        What now?!?!?!

        • Richard December 4, 2018 at 10:14 am - Reply

          Leave Terry alone. Most understand what he is trying to say.
          And with a little effort you can too.

  10. REAL HUMEDUDE December 4, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    I would pint out those areas are not by any means “dry”. They are just a little behind average, and have gotten pretty decent precip this LRC actually considering how cold its been. They had severe thunderstorms and Tornados in SW MO this part Friday night, so the weather isn’t totally calm there by any means just lesser total amounts than points north.

  11. Mr. Pete December 4, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    We have what I would call a “noticeable dusting” now in Prairie Village – a visible coating that’s sticking to the streets and everything

  12. Rodney December 4, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    Woke up to around 3/10 of an inch of snow in Ashland this morning measured at 6:00 AM which made for a white knuckle commute with steady snow falling on Highway 63 between Ashland and Jefferson City with slide offs. Banding of snow continued in a narrow area and a close by neighbor measured 1.5 inches of snow in Ashland at 8 AM with some very light snow still falling. Light snow is now falling with big flakes outside my office in Jefferson City. With at least 1.5” of new snow this morning added to my prior total do far this season of 6.8” that brings my Ashland, MO snow total up to: 8.3”, WOW!! We are just barely into December. Looks like we could have another event on Thursday morning through the afternoon, local meteorologists saying 1/2”-1” could fall as the front pushes through. Hard to believe I could be between 9-10” by the end of the week.

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

  13. Mike Holm December 4, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    Freezing rain 23° 635 near Parkville

  14. morganu December 4, 2018 at 10:02 am - Reply

    EURO has had the weekend storm pegged for for days. On to the next storm.

    • MMike December 4, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

      Morganu.

      You said that about the blizzard last weekend, “it’s going north, it was fun while it lasted” You said that from (2) days out.

      Latest data on the Canadian and GFS are actually farther north on these runs, it’s close. It’s not out of the question to go 100 miles north considering the storm is still 4-5 days out.

      You might very well be right, but you can’t deny that this is just south of KC and a north jog isn’t out of the question. I think the data is picking up on the high pressure pushing in later this week and in return, dry air here in KC which would indeed push the storm south of our area. What if that push of dry air is less??

    • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

      What next storm?

  15. Clint December 4, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply
  16. f00dl3 December 4, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

    I would expect either a severe correction south or north on Friday’s model runs after the models sample the environment left in wake of the Thursday snow event.

    • Clint December 4, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

      Lets hope north, that’s the most the CMC has budged on this.

  17. 39th&Blue December 4, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

    Has anyone ever heard or read about steam or smokestack effect induced snow from industrial areas? Given the right ingredients in the atmosphere, it can happen. Could what is falling be smokestack effect snow? We don’t necessarily have to be in the immediate vicinity of an industrial area, from what I read, to see snow fall, if conditions are just right. Just something to think about.

  18. Mandy in Raytown December 4, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    It’s snowing hard here in Raytown, just south of the stadiums. Tons of heavy, large flakes! Looking out my window on the 5th floor, it’s a full on winter wonderland out there. Wondering if this will give us much more accumulation. The main roads are fine, but all of our side roads are a bit of a mess. I’m guessing because the city wasn’t prepared for this much snow.

  19. snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply

    Southern Platte’s getting skipped over! We have a few tiny snowflakes wandering through the air and a very light dusting on the ground.

  20. Clint December 4, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

    Funny that nobody is even talking about the fact that the GFS, FV3-GFS, and CMC all give a lot of us an inch or 2 of snow Thursday morning.

    • Richard December 4, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

      I think Gary mentioned it last night on air. He said it could be another situation like yesterday morning. Slick streets.

    • A1hoops December 4, 2018 at 11:06 am - Reply

      A year ago the blog would have been excited for a inch. This year that’s not exciting to us lol

    • snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 1:16 pm - Reply

      i <3 fv3

  21. Richard December 4, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Light snow in Olathe. Sticking

  22. Melanie December 4, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply

    As much as I love snow, I’m hoping this one stays south of the metro. My daughter has 2 outdoor soccer games this weekend. It is going to be freezing and we don’t need snow on top of it.

    • Johnny December 4, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

      It will make them tougher

    • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

      Who schedules outdoor soccer games in December…how bizarre?

      • Mr. Pete December 4, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

        Does seem odd – my girls play indoor all winter.

  23. Stl78(winon,mn) December 4, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    Outdoor games in December?!

  24. Jack December 4, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    If you compare the 12km nam and the gfs at 84 hours it looks like the nam has the storm dig a bit more creating a stronger storm. Gary did you notice this?

  25. Tony December 4, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    It’s more than likely going to stay south

  26. Urbanity December 4, 2018 at 1:18 pm - Reply

    Gary, if you throw out the early October rain, since Oct 10th Salina has had about an 1.4″ of precip, November had .89 total. I don’t see this being a wet pattern here, I’m sure the early Oct storm was a freak, not going to ever repeat esp since there was a cyclone from the Pacific that was involved. In fact there were several large gulf storms leading up to early October that threw moisture our way. With no foreseeable precip in the forecast through mid Dec it looks to be a drier pattern than we had hoped. No snow looks to be the case also as temps warm through Dec.

    • Gary December 4, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

      It is definitely something to pay attention too, and I am still expecting that part of the pattern to produce in future cycles. It does count, maybe not the extreme rainfall event, but at least the wet event will return in future cycles.

      Gary

    • f00dl3 December 4, 2018 at 1:29 pm - Reply

      I think we are in a wet pattern. The constant waves of energy creating a steady stream of forcing. I think we will have a long term frontal boundary set up here similar to 1993 that could cause serious flooding issues, coupled with the frequent storm systems. Million dollar question is how far north that boundary sets up to determine how far downstream MCSs travel.

      • thetophat December 4, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

        I’m not the expert some of you all are but my gut feeling remains: big warmup second half of December followed by some major cold that could push the main storm track well south. Much as all the snow lovers here got to enjoy the November blizzard I doubt all the ingredients for something like that recur.

        The one thing I am VERY concerned about is this type of pattern in April-May. The USA is, as a whole, way overdue for a major severe weather season I fear that is coming in 2019.

        • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

          Not exactly a daring prediction…we very rarely get blizzards here…I too predict we probably wont get another blizzard this winter. However, good chance of more snows, and very possible at least a couple more very decent snows. The amount of rain and snow we’ve had the last two months has been just amazing…love the pattern.

        • rush2112 December 4, 2018 at 8:37 pm - Reply

          KC is way overdue for some bad severe, agree w top hat. We are living on borrowed time.

  27. BSmike December 4, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    Is Thursday morning going to be a rush hour problem??

    • thetophat December 4, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

      The way people drive in this town. Yes.

    • Richard December 4, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      very possible mixture of sleet and snow

  28. Bill in Lawrence December 4, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Tuesday afternoon to you sir!!

    After being outside some today I have to say it is just cold!!! The past 3 days have been down right chilly. Which got me to thinking….we have just witnessed the most winter like 5 week stretch we have seen since 2014. Being a fan of winter (yes I’m weird…but I like spring, summer and fall as well…that is the main reason I have stayed here…all 4 seasons…) I had to pause and think we have really seen a stretch of weather for this time of year that I doubt many of us on this blog will ever see again in our life times…pretty rare combination of long duration cold with 5-6 snow events (albeit all but one very small) for November and first week of December. It is worth taking a pause and thinking about…..

    I fully agree we will moderate over the 8-14 days…moderate….say upper 30’s to mid 40’s not really warm up. I mean the 12Z GFS had one 52 and one 46 and that was as warm as it showed and the 52 was at hour 384 with a strong cold front on our door step. So yes we will moderate but not a warm up like we have witnessed in the past 4 years. I would respectfully argue that this pattern just does not have that for the winter cycles.

    That said…I would venture that 98% of the viewing area and probably 80% of those who read this blog would very much enjoy 8-14 days of moderating temperatures!!! Not everyone is Bytor and Snowdog as I am LOL

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • rush2112 December 4, 2018 at 8:30 pm - Reply

      Square for battle, let the fray begin….

  29. Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

    Epic fail for Saturday on the GFS.

    • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

      Epic fail for who/what?

      • Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

        Snow in KC. What else?

        • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

          I think a snow has to be forecast for your area for it to later be called an epic fail. This storm was never forecast to hit our area, so I would argue it’s not a fail.

          • Snow Miser December 4, 2018 at 5:20 pm - Reply

            Well, a few days ago it was showing snow over KC. So, I’d call it a fail.

            • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

              a few days ago some models showed snow over us a week out…we all know models cant forecast snow for KC with any accuracy a week out…so I guess we could say some models failed…but we already know they dont have that ability

        • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 4:25 pm - Reply

          It is, however, unfortunate for us snow lovers.

          • Tony December 4, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

            Take your prius and head south!

            • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:28 pm - Reply

              Naw..patience Grasshopper….more snow to come right here in our area…so many snow events already…AND ITS STILL FALL…just amazing

  30. weatherjaded December 4, 2018 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    I think an epic fail can be whatever someone wants it to be if it’s that important to them. If a snow enthusiast is looking for a positive trend in a forecast model and is resoundingly negative, epic fail can be fitting.

    • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

      I think in this case, I agree that you could say a couple models were an epic fail as they showed the snow over us a week out. But to me, we already know models cant forecast snow over KC a week out with any accuracy…so is something that is expected to be wrong an epic fail when it in fact turns out to be wrong…I’d argue no, I’d argue that is the expected result. But to each his own. LOL

      • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:36 pm - Reply

        Or to clarify/correct what I just said..things, like weather models a week out, epically fail on a regular basis when it comes to forecasting snow storm tracks in relationship to KC, so it should be no surprise when they do. LOL

        • Heat Miser December 4, 2018 at 8:38 pm - Reply

          I think my argument is an epic fail as its giving Heat Miser a headache. ROFL

  31. Richard December 4, 2018 at 4:50 pm - Reply

    On air
    Gary took out the chance for snow on Saturday but is saying could be slick Thursday morn, but could be mostly southeast of metro though.

  32. Emaw December 4, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

    Jack Squat until further notice!

  33. Richard December 4, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    The 5 major U.S. cities with the highest probability of a White Christmas ( 1 inch of snow on the ground)

    https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/white-christmas-top-five-major-us-cities/38504371

  34. Richard December 4, 2018 at 7:25 pm - Reply

    My thoughts on the blog title is it has been a wet cold pattern, but turning into a dry cold pattern?
    Wet meaning liquid amounts.
    We will get more snow but what will the liquid to snow ratio be ? Even the blizzard was not really a wet snow until it started melting. But what do I know 🤭😬 not much. I just know I am enjoying the new pattern.

    • Anonymous December 4, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

      That blizzard snow started out very wet actually. That is why there was a lot of ice issues around a lot of places.

    • Gary December 4, 2018 at 8:21 pm - Reply

      What? Did you just experience this week, the past three days: 0.94″ on Saturday, 0.04 Sunday, 0.02″ yesterday, and a dusting today. Think about these facts Richard, and you think it is getting drier?

      • Richard December 5, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

        Gary
        Thats why I said what do I know !
        Then KS Jones comes along (along comes Jones) and said Olathe precip was 2″ below norm in Nov

    • KS Jones December 4, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

      On average, Olathe gets 3.46″ of precipitation in October and 2.95″ in November.
      Here’s the 60 day weather history for Olathe.
      https://maps.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOJC/2018/10/4/CustomHistory.html?dayend=4&monthend=12&yearend=2018&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

      • KS Jones December 4, 2018 at 9:34 pm - Reply

        As you can see from that 60 day history, Olathe’s precipitation was 2″ below average in November. You’ve gotten 0.62″ so far this December, and 1.77″ is your December average.

  35. Austin Braddock December 4, 2018 at 8:17 pm - Reply

    There is a chance of slick roads Thursday morning?

    • Gary December 4, 2018 at 8:19 pm - Reply

      If it precipitates? The NAM just trended in the direction of the GFS. It has a band of higher relative humidity that increases and moves across between 4 AM and 9 AM Thursday. There is a little disturbance and we will talk about it in tomorrows blog if this trend continues.

  36. L.B December 4, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    Could just be a teaser winter shaping up. not quite in the right spot will probably be the mantra. I think spring might arrive early with a lot of mist and rain. Very nasty April. Lot’s of small storms around us with some mean weather mainly north east and south east. Just a typical Kansas normalcy type thing.

  37. Clint December 4, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Gary, the NAM just slowed down the weekend system A LOT. Am I right to think this is a good thing?

    • Jack December 5, 2018 at 12:24 am - Reply

      Yes, I saw that too and I think it is due to it being stronger on the nam… nam should be interesting to look at tomorrow.

  38. Emaw December 4, 2018 at 8:57 pm - Reply

    Richard, the ground is saturated.

  39. Supercell December 4, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    KC is in exactly the right spot this winter. It has been historic already and we’re just in the first week of December. The Central Plains are ground zero this winter. It’s ok if southern Kansas and Missouri get theirs this weekend. Nebraska and Iowa have had theirs, KC has been nailed, now it’s southern Kansas and Missouri’s turn. This is a great sign for rest of winter. I think Gary’s 26 inches is in jeopardy on the low side. The writing is on the wall to hang on this winter and enjoy the ride. Don’t worry if one storm misses us to the south. In years when our area is not in right spot it generally coincides with most of the central plains missing out. We’re in the sweet spot this year and the storms just keep coming. We will have plenty more opportunities.

  40. Hockeynut69 December 4, 2018 at 9:44 pm - Reply

    Wow just saw that Mike Thompson is retiring and his last day at Fox 4 will be December 21st!

    • Gary December 4, 2018 at 9:55 pm - Reply

      Yes, he is retiring early. I worked with him for my first six years in KC from 1992-1998. I haven’t talked with him about this yet, and I will soon.

      Gary

      • Matt December 5, 2018 at 6:44 am - Reply

        Might suggest to Plenner or Anderson or Evening Weekend guy apply for Chief opening.

  41. Lrcfan1 December 4, 2018 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    Gary put a chance of snow back in for Saturday said 2 models bring it up to i70

  42. snowflakeparkville December 5, 2018 at 6:19 am - Reply

    Why is no one talking about how one model shows 20 inches in South Carolina? Or how all of them have consistently shown over a foot of snow in Virginia and North Carolina? This is “a normal season’s snowfall in one storm” territory for that region.

  43. snowhater December 5, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

    the storm is trending south sorry snowlovers thank god for big daddy poof can we say poof poof poof and to heat mizer sorry your storm wont materailize

  44. f00dl3 December 5, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

    I like what the GFS is doing with the energy for the 14-21st. Holding it back a bit and it’s starting to trend to a better snowy solution now.

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