It Was The Coldest KC November, Now What?

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Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City set the record for the coldest November ever in recorded history.  35.6° is the average temperature for November. The average temperature is calculated by adding up all of the high temperatures and low temperatures and then dividing by 60:

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7.6″ of snow fell during the month with the coldest temperature of 9 degrees. Here are some more November statistics:

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This Dominant Weather Pattern For This Winter Season:

The weather pattern is now set for the winter season, and there has been splitting of the upper level flow over the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is still strengthening and it is influencing this pattern.  This is the pattern we saw developing weeks ago.  There are still many variables that we are monitoring as we learn a lot more this month.  Here it the dominant pattern in this years LRC with the Anchor Troughs shown:

Winter-Forecast-Pattern-December-1-640x360

There is a mean split flow that has been showing up over and over again in the past few weeks, and this is most often located over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  And there is on a main anchor trough, where storm systems will be intensifying most often as the move closer to this location. It appears to be located just east of KC. There will be an active southern branch this winter, and the way the weather pattern has set up, cold air has been available, and yet we are still waiting for our first Arctic blast.

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The storm in question for this next weekend is still rather suspect and forecast to be off the California coast on Tuesday, as you can see above.  The trend on the models overnight was for this system to track much farther south and weaken.  It’s only Monday, so let’s see how the next few model runs come in.

We had a dusting of snow again last night.  In fact, KCI may have had 0.2″ of snow, which would put us up to 8″ for the season. It snowed pretty hard around 1:30 AM.  Sunny The Weather Dog shows us:

IMG_6031

It will be a cold and cloudy day in KC with a few snow flurries possible.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

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snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Very light snow in Parkville. It seems to actually be sticking a tiny bit.

Plowboy87
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Plowboy87

Heavy coating in independence.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yep, and I don’t think anyone called for this.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Has anyone else noticed that the 06z runs tend to work off the data from the 18z and 12z runs? It seems the 00z runs are the only ones that pick up on new data trends until the 12z runs come out.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Yes and this year it seems to show more than others.

morganu
Member
morganu

FV3 is also south. Back to square one.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

They never learn

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I think Ill start paying attention to models Wednesday late in the day

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

FV3 encouraging
GFS 1 step forward 2 steps back
Canadian hasn’t budged for days

Terry
Guest
Terry

Everyone’s model watching still too early to many days to track still

morganu
Member
morganu

Canadian is also south.

morganu
Member
morganu

GFS took a step back south.

Not buying everything
Guest
Not buying everything

foodl, do you think this will be an extended winter? could spring come early?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

foodl3 what are your thoughts on an early spring? or do you think winter will linger

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

5″ of snow on the 8th would help strengthen an Arctic blast on the 9th

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The Euro shows all the action will be both north and south with very little in between. This area north of Manhattan gets snagged by a 3-4″ swath, whereas, WeatherUnderground predicts we’ll get 1-3″ Saturday.
comment image

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

I’m thinking 6-10.

Clint
Guest
Clint

00z NAM is not in range but does give some hopeful clues that lead me to think it likes a northern solution.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Will be interesting to see the euro model to see if it shifts any north.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

FV3 is encouraging. Keep on shifting! (knock on wood)

Richard
Guest
Richard

FYI

WEDNESDAY
No mail delivery
Federal offices will be closed
National day of mourning

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

There is virtually a consensus among the models that the low is in central Mexico 4 days from now. It’s going to be tough for every one to be wrong, and wrong by a lot.

Alex Pickman
Guest
Alex Pickman

The 0.5” I got here in Stewartsville yesterday late afternoon-overnight outs my season total to 13.1”

Jack
Guest
Jack

18z really had quite the dramatic jump.. 6 inches in southern joco. Let’s get thing going further north! We want this looking really good by Wednesday evening!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Euro’s weird…it hits west Oklahoma/east Texas Panhandle and north Arkansas/south Missouri really hard, with a gap in between, so the snow somehow skips over Tulsa and hits everything around it.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

GFS back north but with a painful cutoff. Canadian shifted its narrow east/west corridor of snow slightly north and east. Waiting on FV3.

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

5 more days to go, it’s a good sign to start trending north now.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

If it’s anything like the last storm, it’ll go further north and then back south and then north again and then south again and then…here comes the modelitis!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Next up…………….kcchamps returns and predicts six feet of snow in the next months because the models say so!

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

trending back north now on latest gfs

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary do you have an early prediction on the chances of a KC White Christmas?

TC
Guest
TC

I thought it was trending toward a warm-up during that week last time I looked, so I’m also wondering if we are (hopefully) trending in a colder/snowier pattern?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I see a real problem with the amount of warm air that is forecasted to infiltrate the pattern the next 2 weeks. Even if the week long trough sets up how I think it will, we may be too warm for it to be all snow. If we have a major winter storm it would be during the period I aforementioned but we really need some cold air to filter in and I don’t see any sources close enough after the brief blast on the 9th.

Larry
Guest
Larry

I’m an old man with a lousty memory. Which “aforementioned period” is that?

Larry
Guest
Larry

lousy – I n- I can’t type, either.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I give it a 50 percent chance (meaning no clue). LOL

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I wonder how much precipitation Amarillo has received this LRC year….lol

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m very concerned bout this years severe storms, esp. the tornadic component. The Tornados over the weekend didn’t seem to catch much attention, but watching the on radar I got a little chill down my spine when I realized how bad this outbreak was on Dec.1st…..what will this look like in April/ May? We are going to make up for the quiet 18′ season this year, the way its setting up so far its looking like several major outbreaks this year the likes we haven’t seen in several years.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The nature / locations of the severe weather outbreaks have a lot in common with notable years in the midwest such as 1999. We may get fortunate that the highest tornado risk component may remain in OK/AR but it’s a concern.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

THIS is the real deal with what is developing. No way to tell where but these large cold core lows are very, very bad deals come April-May.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I didn’t even hear about it! Wow, Illinois was hit hard. That’s worrisome.

craig
Guest
craig

The official count is now 22 confirmed tornadoes in Illinois back on Saturday.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I agree

morganu
Member
morganu

The storm next weekend will most likely go south. It looks to get active again in around ten days or so, but we won’t have much of a cold air source in place by then. It’s looking quite torchy. I guess we’ll find out.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I recall we did have some storms that showed a south track but then shifted north. Let’s see as we still have 4-5 days before models will be pretty sure. Remember the GFS on one system this winter was so far south and the NAM was right..
Next weekends (after 13th) is going to be fun. Let’s see if models are totally underestimating cold air availability!

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks
This morning I heard Gary tell the 810 guys it will be dry for Sundays game.
Just wondered if anyone had a different take on it.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It may go south, but as with the last storm, this far out the models are often wrong this far out…let’s wait and see.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary already said it would be dry. He didn’t tell them let’s wait and see.

Richard
Guest
Richard

*dry for the game which is at noon. I guess things could change after 3 pm

Richard
Guest
Richard

So what is this weekend looking like ? ( Sunday )
wet or dry.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

YouTube snow miser, lots of great tutorials

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Good point, maybe I should start doing that when I’ve got nothing else to do.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Sometimes when I read the comments on this blog I think I should buy myself a Meteorology 101 book.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Most models are indicating cooler wet weather in the east from the mid Atlantic and southward. How can this be with an anchor trough located along the Mississippi river? In October from St. Louis to Mississippi they were much below average in precipitation. So does this mean that most weather will occur east of Kansas, and most likely south as the northern branch phases with the southern branch in a classic El Nino set up?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Good Morning Gary,
Could you explain the split flow a bit more into detail please.
Like the cause , why it continues, and most importantly why the northern branch has not taken over the southern.
I do find that feature interesting and I’m wondering if it will weaken when ENSO weakens?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary what you are so in this years LRC patterns so far how do you think Kc is going In going to benefit out of this? So far as being in the dominant storm track this year as Shown in the picture ? In your winter winter special ? Main Archor Trough moving the storm closer intensifying ? Is that good for as in Kc ?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Look at it like this. Last year, we were in an anchor ridge, which killed most of our chances for good precip. This year, we are in an anchor trough, so the exact opposite should happen, though east of us will get greater impacts.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

A lot of accidents today, MODOT caught off gaurd

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Nope for me

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

First!!!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

First?