It Was The Coldest KC November, Now What?

/It Was The Coldest KC November, Now What?

It Was The Coldest KC November, Now What?

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City set the record for the coldest November ever in recorded history.  35.6° is the average temperature for November. The average temperature is calculated by adding up all of the high temperatures and low temperatures and then dividing by 60:

1

7.6″ of snow fell during the month with the coldest temperature of 9 degrees. Here are some more November statistics:

10

This Dominant Weather Pattern For This Winter Season:

The weather pattern is now set for the winter season, and there has been splitting of the upper level flow over the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is still strengthening and it is influencing this pattern.  This is the pattern we saw developing weeks ago.  There are still many variables that we are monitoring as we learn a lot more this month.  Here it the dominant pattern in this years LRC with the Anchor Troughs shown:

Winter-Forecast-Pattern-December-1-640x360

There is a mean split flow that has been showing up over and over again in the past few weeks, and this is most often located over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  And there is on a main anchor trough, where storm systems will be intensifying most often as the move closer to this location. It appears to be located just east of KC. There will be an active southern branch this winter, and the way the weather pattern has set up, cold air has been available, and yet we are still waiting for our first Arctic blast.

1

The storm in question for this next weekend is still rather suspect and forecast to be off the California coast on Tuesday, as you can see above.  The trend on the models overnight was for this system to track much farther south and weaken.  It’s only Monday, so let’s see how the next few model runs come in.

We had a dusting of snow again last night.  In fact, KCI may have had 0.2″ of snow, which would put us up to 8″ for the season. It snowed pretty hard around 1:30 AM.  Sunny The Weather Dog shows us:

IMG_6031

It will be a cold and cloudy day in KC with a few snow flurries possible.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

2018-12-04T07:58:49+00:00December 3rd, 2018|General|84 Comments

84 Comments

  1. Snow Miser December 3, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    First!!!

  2. ClassyCat December 3, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    First?

  3. ClassyCat December 3, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

    Nope for me

  4. Mike Holm December 3, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    A lot of accidents today, MODOT caught off gaurd

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

      I left the station at 11:45 last night, and the radar was pretty spotty with a few snow showers, and then it organized into a nice area of snow at 1 AM. They were no longer snow flurries. I knew there was a chance of this, and when temperatures are 31 degrees, it became the perfect scenario for a thin layer of ice forming on the roads early this morning.

      • Three7s December 3, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

        It seemed very sporadic when I was out, but there were slick spots for sure.

  5. Terry December 3, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Gary what you are so in this years LRC patterns so far how do you think Kc is going In going to benefit out of this? So far as being in the dominant storm track this year as Shown in the picture ? In your winter winter special ? Main Archor Trough moving the storm closer intensifying ? Is that good for as in Kc ?

    • Three7s December 3, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

      Look at it like this. Last year, we were in an anchor ridge, which killed most of our chances for good precip. This year, we are in an anchor trough, so the exact opposite should happen, though east of us will get greater impacts.

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

      It is good if you are close to an anchor trough. This increases the number of storm systems that will impact your area each year.

      • Terry December 3, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

        Gary so we are close to the Anchor trough in kc that’s a good sign for a ?

  6. NoBeachHere December 3, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    Good Morning Gary,
    Could you explain the split flow a bit more into detail please.
    Like the cause , why it continues, and most importantly why the northern branch has not taken over the southern.
    I do find that feature interesting and I’m wondering if it will weaken when ENSO weakens?

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

      We do get some sort of split flow almost every winter. In some years it is definitely stronger when there is a stronger southern branch of the jet stream. This is still evolving, and El Niño is stills strengthening and will likely continue through next spring. Where the anchor troughs are locate will still be the most important and this is near where storm systems will intensify most often. The storm we just had over the weekend intensified as it moved into he position. The models under did the intensification. It is something to keep track of as each system moves by. We will discuss each set-up as they happen and the answers will likely be within these discussions over the winter, and we can all learn.

      • NoBeachHere December 3, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

        Ok, thank you

  7. Urbanity December 3, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

    Most models are indicating cooler wet weather in the east from the mid Atlantic and southward. How can this be with an anchor trough located along the Mississippi river? In October from St. Louis to Mississippi they were much below average in precipitation. So does this mean that most weather will occur east of Kansas, and most likely south as the northern branch phases with the southern branch in a classic El Nino set up?

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

      Look carefully, there are other weaker features as well as the main anchor trough. The anchor trough is somewhat like the thermal wind, it is difficult to see at times as we flow through the pattern. Areas off to the east are also influenced by another trough near or off the northeast coast. It is a much bigger picture that needs to be analyzed. Storm systems will be impacting near and off to the east of the main anchor position, and then the southern branch will provide some interesting systems tracking across the four corners states.

      • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

        I think this Main Anchor Trough is what I kind of have called the North Central US trough. Takes up like a rex block with storms oscillating around inside the trough/pattern. And yes they do seem to dip right there.

        I’m surprised you did not mention the Rocky Trough part of the pattern though that occurs right after the Anchor trough part vanishes, which if I’m thinking right, produced the massive flooding over Iowa/Manhatten KS, gave us the massive rainfall on the “first day” of the LRC, produced back 2″ snowfalls, and may produce a major winter storm next weekend.

      • brad December 3, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

        What are the chances of a major ice storm this winter ?

  8. Snow Miser December 3, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

    Sometimes when I read the comments on this blog I think I should buy myself a Meteorology 101 book.

  9. Mike Holm December 3, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    YouTube snow miser, lots of great tutorials

    • Snow Miser December 3, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

      Good point, maybe I should start doing that when I’ve got nothing else to do.

  10. Richard December 3, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

    So what is this weekend looking like ? ( Sunday )
    wet or dry.

  11. morganu December 3, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

    The storm next weekend will most likely go south. It looks to get active again in around ten days or so, but we won’t have much of a cold air source in place by then. It’s looking quite torchy. I guess we’ll find out.

    • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

      I recall we did have some storms that showed a south track but then shifted north. Let’s see as we still have 4-5 days before models will be pretty sure. Remember the GFS on one system this winter was so far south and the NAM was right..
      Next weekends (after 13th) is going to be fun. Let’s see if models are totally underestimating cold air availability!

    • Richard December 3, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      Thanks
      This morning I heard Gary tell the 810 guys it will be dry for Sundays game.
      Just wondered if anyone had a different take on it.

    • Heat Miser December 3, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

      It may go south, but as with the last storm, this far out the models are often wrong this far out…let’s wait and see.

      • Richard December 3, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply

        Gary already said it would be dry. He didn’t tell them let’s wait and see.

        • Richard December 3, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

          *dry for the game which is at noon. I guess things could change after 3 pm

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE December 3, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    I’m very concerned bout this years severe storms, esp. the tornadic component. The Tornados over the weekend didn’t seem to catch much attention, but watching the on radar I got a little chill down my spine when I realized how bad this outbreak was on Dec.1st…..what will this look like in April/ May? We are going to make up for the quiet 18′ season this year, the way its setting up so far its looking like several major outbreaks this year the likes we haven’t seen in several years.

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

      I have the same concern. We will discuss more in the next few weeks. We are entering the time of the year where the LRC truly comes into focus.

      Gary

    • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

      The nature / locations of the severe weather outbreaks have a lot in common with notable years in the midwest such as 1999. We may get fortunate that the highest tornado risk component may remain in OK/AR but it’s a concern.

      • Gary December 3, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

        I think we will look at close to Christmas for our first chance of an Arctic Outbreak. I still need more time to figure this out. Just something to think about. And, hint bloggers, this is how we can discuss predictions without mentioning cycle length, etc. I don’t want to open up a can of worms again, so just respect the rules and let’s share in this weather experience.

        Gary

        • Snow Miser December 3, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

          Does not the 9 degrees on the 10th count as an Arctic outbreak? Seems pretty Arctic-esque to me! 😀

        • Rickmckc December 3, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

          Interesting that we have had no Arctic outbreaks yet we were -8F below average in November. The last two weeks felt more like January than late November. Seems to me that if the pattern continues, the next three months ought to be plenty cold enough for snow without anything from the Arctic.

        • BRAD WILLIAMS December 3, 2018 at 4:02 pm - Reply

          What are the chances that a major ice storm this winter?

          • Gary December 3, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

            Fairly low. I wouldn’t say there is no chance, however. We are still learning more about this pattern.

            On another note, the GFS came in with a stronger wave coming in from the northwest ON Saturday, this allows for a farther north lead wave. I wouldn’t completely throw this solution out, and I am still paying close attention. There should be a wave coming in from the northwest on the back side of this trough, so let’s pay close attention to the next few model runs.

    • thetophat December 3, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

      THIS is the real deal with what is developing. No way to tell where but these large cold core lows are very, very bad deals come April-May.

    • snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

      I didn’t even hear about it! Wow, Illinois was hit hard. That’s worrisome.

      • craig December 3, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

        The official count is now 22 confirmed tornadoes in Illinois back on Saturday.

    • Jason December 3, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

      I agree

  13. Urbanity December 3, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

    I wonder how much precipitation Amarillo has received this LRC year….lol

  14. Mr. Pete December 3, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

    Gary do you have an early prediction on the chances of a KC White Christmas?

    • TC December 3, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

      I thought it was trending toward a warm-up during that week last time I looked, so I’m also wondering if we are (hopefully) trending in a colder/snowier pattern?

      • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

        I see a real problem with the amount of warm air that is forecasted to infiltrate the pattern the next 2 weeks. Even if the week long trough sets up how I think it will, we may be too warm for it to be all snow. If we have a major winter storm it would be during the period I aforementioned but we really need some cold air to filter in and I don’t see any sources close enough after the brief blast on the 9th.

        • Larry December 3, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

          I’m an old man with a lousty memory. Which “aforementioned period” is that?

          • Larry December 3, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

            lousy – I n- I can’t type, either.

    • Heat Miser December 3, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

      I give it a 50 percent chance (meaning no clue). LOL

  15. BSmike December 3, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

    trending back north now on latest gfs

  16. snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    GFS back north but with a painful cutoff. Canadian shifted its narrow east/west corridor of snow slightly north and east. Waiting on FV3.

    • BSmike December 3, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      5 more days to go, it’s a good sign to start trending north now.

      • snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

        If it’s anything like the last storm, it’ll go further north and then back south and then north again and then south again and then…here comes the modelitis!

        • thetophat December 3, 2018 at 7:13 pm - Reply

          Next up…………….kcchamps returns and predicts six feet of snow in the next months because the models say so!

  17. snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 4:32 pm - Reply

    Euro’s weird…it hits west Oklahoma/east Texas Panhandle and north Arkansas/south Missouri really hard, with a gap in between, so the snow somehow skips over Tulsa and hits everything around it.

  18. Jack December 3, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

    18z really had quite the dramatic jump.. 6 inches in southern joco. Let’s get thing going further north! We want this looking really good by Wednesday evening!

  19. Alex Pickman December 3, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    The 0.5” I got here in Stewartsville yesterday late afternoon-overnight outs my season total to 13.1”

  20. weatherjaded December 3, 2018 at 5:22 pm - Reply

    There is virtually a consensus among the models that the low is in central Mexico 4 days from now. It’s going to be tough for every one to be wrong, and wrong by a lot.

  21. Richard December 3, 2018 at 5:43 pm - Reply

    FYI

    WEDNESDAY
    No mail delivery
    Federal offices will be closed
    National day of mourning

  22. Julie December 3, 2018 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    I have a wedding on Saturday please NO snow!!

  23. snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 7:27 pm - Reply

    FV3 is encouraging. Keep on shifting! (knock on wood)

  24. Lrcfan1 December 3, 2018 at 7:39 pm - Reply

    Will be interesting to see the euro model to see if it shifts any north.

    • Gary December 3, 2018 at 7:53 pm - Reply

      There is a series of waves that would shift everything north, and this series of waves is located on the northwest side of the trough. If there is enough strength in this energy, then it would shift the southern wave farther north. The European Model didn’t have that series of waves thi morning, so let’s see if it picks up on it and if tonights models pick up on this. New models soon.

      • Richard December 3, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

        Gary
        Heat keeps saying stop living for each model run 😄😏
        But seriously I know that’s how you and a lot of the bloggers roll !
        So bring it on !

        • Gary December 3, 2018 at 8:24 pm - Reply

          Oh, it is fun looking at every model run. Just don’t think it is over because of one model here or there. It is five days away.

          Gary

        • Heat Miser December 3, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

          Exactly Richard…glad you are paying attention. Okay to watch model runs, but some live from model run to model run. As long as you understand each model run five or six days out is often pretty much meaningless…thats all im pointing out. That last storm was very demonstrative of that.

  25. Anonymous December 3, 2018 at 7:50 pm - Reply
  26. Clint December 3, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

    00z NAM is not in range but does give some hopeful clues that lead me to think it likes a northern solution.

  27. Emaw December 3, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

    I’m thinking 6-10.

  28. KS Jones December 3, 2018 at 9:10 pm - Reply

    The Euro shows all the action will be both north and south with very little in between. This area north of Manhattan gets snagged by a 3-4″ swath, whereas, WeatherUnderground predicts we’ll get 1-3″ Saturday.
    https://img3.weather.us/images/data/cache/model/download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120312_144_514_215.png

  29. f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 9:28 pm - Reply

    5″ of snow on the 8th would help strengthen an Arctic blast on the 9th

  30. Anonymous December 3, 2018 at 9:43 pm - Reply

    foodl3 what are your thoughts on an early spring? or do you think winter will linger

  31. Not buying everything December 3, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    foodl, do you think this will be an extended winter? could spring come early?

  32. morganu December 3, 2018 at 10:03 pm - Reply

    GFS took a step back south.

  33. morganu December 3, 2018 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    Canadian is also south.

  34. Terry December 3, 2018 at 10:12 pm - Reply

    Everyone’s model watching still too early to many days to track still

  35. snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 10:30 pm - Reply

    FV3 encouraging
    GFS 1 step forward 2 steps back
    Canadian hasn’t budged for days

  36. Heat Miser December 3, 2018 at 11:13 pm - Reply

    I think Ill start paying attention to models Wednesday late in the day

  37. morganu December 3, 2018 at 11:27 pm - Reply

    FV3 is also south. Back to square one.

    • Anonymous December 4, 2018 at 6:12 am - Reply

      They never learn

  38. f00dl3 December 4, 2018 at 6:50 am - Reply

    Has anyone else noticed that the 06z runs tend to work off the data from the 18z and 12z runs? It seems the 00z runs are the only ones that pick up on new data trends until the 12z runs come out.

    • Clint December 4, 2018 at 7:06 am - Reply

      Yes and this year it seems to show more than others.

    • Gary December 4, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

      I will disagree. The 6z and 18z runs have a lot of evidence in showing changes, trends. They should be taken and weighted appropriately.

  39. Plowboy87 December 4, 2018 at 7:03 am - Reply

    Heavy coating in independence.

    • Three7s December 4, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

      Yep, and I don’t think anyone called for this.

  40. snowflakeparkville December 4, 2018 at 7:27 am - Reply

    Very light snow in Parkville. It seems to actually be sticking a tiny bit.

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