More Chances of Snow

/More Chances of Snow

More Chances of Snow

Good Sunday bloggers,

It is another Sunday and it’s another Sunday with snow. Today, however, is a completely different animal than last week. A strong storm that ripped out into the Plains Friday, producing severe weather from Oklahoma to Illinois and a snowstorm in Nebraska and northwest Iowa is now weakening and headed to the Great Lakes. Disturbances are rotating around the system and one this morning is bringing snow to south KC and another disturbance will affect, mostly northern Missouri tonight. Temperatures this morning were above freezing in most locations and this is huge in keeping roads damp to wet and not icy. Tonight may be different.

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TODAY AND TONIGHT: The morning band of snow south of the river will fall apart by 10 AM-Noon. The rest of the day will be cloudy, windy and cold with flurries. Then, tonight a new area of snow will likely cross northern Missouri. It may extend south to I-70. Temperatures will be dropping into the 20s, so where the band of snow tracks a dusting to 1/2″ is possible with slick spots likely. Even if most of the snow accumulates on the grass, any paved surfaces that are wet/damp will turn to black ice.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Here is our snowfall forecast for tonight. The best chance of accumulation is across northern Missouri, but the I-70 corridor is not immune from slick spots.

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MONDAY: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs around 30°. Slick spots are possible during the morning.

2

There are two systems to track during the next week. They are timed for Thursday and Friday-Saturday.

The first system for Thursday is along a cold front and does not look like a big issue a this time. We could see a period of rain and snow with minor accumulation. There could be slick spots and it is something to watch.

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The second system has our attention. This looks like a big winter storm. When we were tracking the blizzard last week, the question was where will it track? If it tracked farther south, then KC gets more into the blizzard.  And, as we know, it did. This storm has the same track issue, but in order for our area to get snow, the storm has to track farther north. We have data from every model and each run of every model showing a different track. We will follow this through the week.

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We are still at 7.8″ of snow for the season and have exceeded the totals from the last three years. We WILL add more to this total in December.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2018-12-03T07:53:41+00:00December 2nd, 2018|General|89 Comments

89 Comments

  1. Stl78(winon,mn) December 2, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    First

  2. Weatherjaded December 2, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    First from our local region.

  3. NoBeachHere December 2, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Roll Tide!

    • Gary December 2, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

      Maybe they will play the Sooners!

      • Mike (OP) December 2, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

        Buckeyes deserve to play in the playoffs!!

        • Johnny December 2, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

          No!

        • NoBeachHere December 2, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

          No on OSU. Oklahoma did what they needed to do.
          That being said K Murray is my choice for Heisman. Tua, while a dime dropping QB was stonewalled in first half, outplayed by Fromm and was beat up. Being relieved by 26-2 starter back up, in and how he did it, poetic victory. However you think it should be,
          1 Bama
          2 Clemson
          3 Oklahoma
          4 Notre Dame

          Bama vs Oklahoma
          Heisman Winner vs Heisman Runner-Up

          These are the last days of the game we remember. In a few years, it will all be different.

          • Mike (OP) December 2, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

            Oklahoma played who this year? Get real the Big 12 is a joke of a football conference. KSU, KU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State…HMMM. Oklahoma’s best win is against Texas who finished with 4 losses. Enough said.

            • thetophat December 2, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

              NO playoffs when you are destroyed by Purdue. Period.

        • Gary December 2, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

          Yes, and this is why there should be a 12 team play off. Four teams get a bi-week, and eight teams play, then you reseed the teams and play the final 8, the final 4, and the final game. This would mean that a team would play four extra games if they can win them all. Or at least a final 6 with two teams getting a bi-week. This way Ohio State and Oklahoma are in for sure. This current system is flawed so badly.

          • Mike (OP) December 2, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

            Gary I agree that the system is flawed. I think it’s funny that a sport that is decided by empirical, quantitative data is left to be decided by opinionated humans or be swayed by a network like ESPN who is biased because of their affiliation with SEC. ESPN has the power to sway committee members and it will be evident again today. I think if we all want to see who the best teams are then they should expand the playoff field and force the hands of Athletic Directors to play tougher schedules. If you expand the field, teams like Alabama will stop scheduling Citadel as their second to last game.

            • NoBeachHere December 2, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

              You must be a Big Ten guy, no problem. They all schedule cupcakes, they all do. It’s about money for the little guys program which they need those games to pay for stuff, remember they cry for the little guy? Funny how that a problem now. As far as who they played, well a bunch of teams, bottom line, they did not get blown out by a mediocre Purdue team. If you want to see FCS and lower divisions get raked over and go non scholarship D3 way, keep at it and bye bye lower division matchups, money. A 16 team playoff is no good, 8 teams, ok, but take the regular season and it’s merits and throw it out, throw out CCG’s as well. It’s becoming more apparent that CCG don’t matter, So that game will become the first round and or agreements between conference’s for champs and runner ups to play each other, gone is the 12th.
              In less than 6 years all new TV contracts will be decided, Big 12 is gone, absorbed by the PAC and SEC, SEC expands to Northern Illinois and Cincy. No telling where the Big 12 teams go.

          • Joe December 2, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

            12 team playoff….LOL. Yeah lets make the college football season irrelevant like basketball and give everyone participation trophies. I am a Ohio State alumnus and we did not deserve to be in the top 4. Need to take care of business and we got embarrassed by Purdue.

            • NoBeachHere December 2, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

              ☝️👍

            • Gary December 2, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

              That’s fine Joe, but how about 25 wins in a row UCF. There should be enough teams in a playoff to sneak a cinderella team into the playoffs. I say a 6 to 8 team playoff would do it.

              • NoBeachHere December 2, 2018 at 3:29 pm

                UCF will get that chance if they beat LSU first.
                Then it’s just a beauty pageant.

  4. Bill in Lawrence December 2, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Sunday to you sir!! Hope your weekend has been a good one!!

    Just some random thoughts on this chilly Sunday morning that are based on my interpretations of this LRC. Mine and interpretations should have anyone reading saying danger Will Robinson and must they must be taken with a grain of salt. I have worn many clown suits on this blog and eaten much crow and this may well be one of those times again!!

    To begin, my little neck of the woods has picked up close to 1.4 inches of rain from this system. With the frozen ground and leaves being gone from the trees it wears enough to get things running and Washington Creek is now running more than it has since October of 2017. My pond actually rose about another foot and our neighbor’s lake is for the first time in months at full reservoir. A wonderful rain indeed and quite the active week we have just experienced!!!

    As I have stated before, I am not as bullish on snow for this season as many on here and especially for the month of December. I stated last week I think Lawrence will wind up with around 16 inches of frozen precip (snow, sleet, freezing rain) which is about average for this area. (Lawrence only averages 13 inches of snow a year but if you add sleet and freezing rain I’d say close to 16 of frozen precip a year). In my very humble opinion I think there are some warning signs in this pattern to produce an abundance of snow.

    For December…until around Christmas week I would respectfully argue that temperatures will be around normal and maybe we eek out 1-2 inches of snow. There are two waves between now and Christmas Week that could produce but again would argue they are suspect. There will have to be a player that my hobbyist knowledge did not pick out to make for a different solution than we saw in cycle 1. The waves are there but I would guess we have they have about a 20% chance of producing much over an inch. Regarding temps like in October they will be overall normal; so we will have highs in the upper 30’s o low 40’s for the majority of the time with 1-2 cold fronts that could give us 1-2 days with highs in the upper 20’s…but pretty normal fair for December. I just don’t see this part of the pattern producing arctic outbreak. Look at the temps in the NWT and around Banf and Lake Louise….there is just continental polar air….not arctic air and that should hold until the 18th or so when we should see the arctic air truly return to this side of the pole. Right now the real arctic air is in Siberia not this side of the Pole.

    In my very humble opinion, things will get interesting again around Christmas week through the 2nd to last week of January. This is the time of 2-3 true arctic outbreaks and our best chances of 1-2 decent snows. I must admit, I am very confident about the cold air in this period; in fact, I would venture we will see temps much colder than last year and there is a better than 60% chance of ice skating on Clinton Reservoir again as we saw last January. The issues I see with the snows is will the waves we saw in November will they actually dig far enough south and west to produce in cycles 2 and 3. In cycle one most of these waves dug just to between Hays and Dodge City…they will need to dig further south and west to really get us. Of course we have the “blizzard” part of the pattern return in his time frame as well.

    The one caveat with all of this is of course the development of the El Ninio…that is a player we did not have in Cycle 1 so it will be interesting to see what that does to this pattern.

    Finally…the snow showing up for Later this week, If I am looking at this correctly….a huge if….this wave in cycle 1 just gave us clouds and sprinkles. So I would venture that we have less than a 25% chance of this producing more than an inch for my area. Again, there well may be a player I have missed that could force this further north, but I do not not know what it is so I will stick with a very southern track for this wave.

    Just some random thoughts on this Sunday….will probably be wearing a clown suit but that has never stopped me before!!!

    Have a great Sunday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary December 2, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

      Thanks Bill,

      The way I see it, this system has a decent chance of being farther north. Now, the cycle length is far from being determined still at this point. The new Canadian model did take it way south, and the GFS as well. A lot of time to track this.

      Gary

  5. Michael Casteel December 2, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    We’re over 13” now up in Maryville with more tonight. I bet by March we are over 40”! Have a great Sunday bloggers!
    Michael

  6. Rodney December 2, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    On the storm for next weekend I feel it will be slightly further north maybe not for northern MO but I feel central MO gets in on the snow. Yesterday the NWS in St Louis had a 50% chance of snow in central MO around Ashland & Jefferson City areas & on this mornings update they bummed up chances to 60% Friday night & 80% chance of snow on Saturday. It’s not often you see that high of a chance issued by them 6 days out so they have must high confidence. The GFS & Canadian both had 4-8” snows making it up into my area on last nights late runs. I may be way off but I think this looks to become a big storm with widespread impacts & just may get that nudge north, time will tell. Have s great day bloggers & Go Chiefs!!

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

  7. KS Jones December 2, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    This area midway between Manhattan & Marysville got 2.28″ of rain Friday afternoon through Saturday, and that was followed by 1″ of wet snow (huge flakes) that quickly melted to 0.16″ of water, bringing our year-to-date precipitation to 39.23″ and our autumn snowfall to 8.1″ 
    Presently, it is 32° with snow flurries, and the Big Blue River is 10′ above flood stage.
    https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=top&gage=blrk1

  8. morganu December 2, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Looks like Oklahoma and Arkansas are in for a major snow next week. Been a while for them.

  9. JimT December 2, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

    Gary,
    As u are, I’m a snow lover, so I’m rooting for a northerly track on the storm for next weekend, have a great Sunday. Go Chiefs!

    • Richard December 2, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

      4 corners trough ?
      And the date, 13-15h ?

      • Richard December 2, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

        I meant Dec 13th-15th

  10. morganu December 2, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    EURO even further south than previous run.

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      stop living run to run this far out. As Joe L. said in his blog yesterday, not going to even discuss model runs six days out as they will change 20-30 times before they start to resemble what will actually happen

      • Anonymous December 2, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

        I’m not living run to run. Just commenting on what I see.

      • morganu December 2, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

        I’m not living run to run. Just commenting on what I see.

        • Frankie December 2, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

          Exactly, nothing wrong with pointing out model runs and trends even though we know they will change. Just discussion.

      • Tony December 2, 2018 at 2:46 pm - Reply

        Grow up Heat!

        • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 4:20 pm - Reply

          I just pointed out that pointing out each model run six days out, as Gary pointed out above, doesn’t mean much at all. So, to say, “look, the next run shows it went more south”…well, that’s great but does it really mean anything historically? Well, no, not really. Lets see what the track looks like next week. I’d say Tuesday I’ll start to pay attention, and Wednesday I’ll start to give models some credibility. Man up there Tony, speaking the truth, even if you don’t like it, is no call to be unpleasant. LoL

    • thetophat December 2, 2018 at 2:05 pm - Reply

      Enjoy last Sunday’s blizzard. There will be ZERO more storms like that the rest of this winter plus a major warmup is coming around Christmas-New Years.

      • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

        Actually in Lawrence, we only got about four inches from that blizzard. I wager we will get a snow of greater than four inches the rest of the winter.

  11. rush2112 December 2, 2018 at 1:05 pm - Reply

    Interesting football discussion, the natl champ will of course be Alabama, not a fan though. War Eagle!

    • Bill in Lawrence December 2, 2018 at 4:05 pm - Reply

      Okay….love I mean love your name!!!!!!

      Huge Rush fan here!!!!

      Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

      • Freezemiser December 2, 2018 at 4:09 pm - Reply

        +1 on loving RUSH!

        • j-ox December 2, 2018 at 11:51 pm - Reply

          AMEN!!!!

  12. snowhater December 2, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    i am with big daddy puff the system saturday stays south and hheat mizer well be wrong about this storm

    • thetophat December 2, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

      Get ready for lots more poof. All the ingredients came together last Sunday. We WILL get more snow obviously just nothing like that at least the rest of this winter.

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

      LoL…are you over your deep depression from the last snow storm snowhater? You seem more energized today. I wont be wrong if it goes south, I have no idea where it will go yet, and neither does anyone else. Mabye in a few days we’ll have a decent idea of the storm’s path.

  13. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

    Funny. Every post today mentioning a 1 week period of time get wiped. I’m not even mentioning XX days.

    • Tony December 2, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

      Hmm indeed

    • Richard December 2, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

      I noticed that 2nd link you put up is gone?
      Wonder what happened. Lol now my reply up there makes no sense
      Would remove it if I could

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 4:23 pm - Reply

      didnt you just mention a week’s time right there? LOL

  14. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Wishcasting warning:

    So to be completely nondescript and not mention dates, lengths, and just put my feelings out…. hypothetically if the low at 500 mb tracks the way it tracks, and if the GFS is modeling the surface low stalling out and reforming in error, then the track of the upper level low and surface low would be along the general track taking the core track from DFW -> Little Rock -> Cape Gireadu.

    Theoretically, all this 1.75-2.5″ of moisture, in that scenario, would be snowfall of 16+” for the entire KC area.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120212/gfs_apcpn24_us_41.png

    Furthermore, if something weird were to happen and the ULL stalled, the second surface low in theory would take a similar track to the first as the general spin-up area would be the same. GFS shows another 0.3″ of moisture available for that system. If first said system dumped decent snowpack our temperatures would crash, leading to high snowfall ratios. That could be 4-8″ of snowfall, making 2 pieces of energy in less than 7 days having the potential to give us 2-3″ of liquid precipitation which in snowfall form could be a purely epic 20-30″

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

      That would be sweet! 😉

    • Matt December 2, 2018 at 9:00 pm - Reply

      100 inches.

  15. Mr. Pete December 2, 2018 at 4:16 pm - Reply

    Wow the trolls are out in force today. What a loser…

  16. Clint December 2, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    Whats up with comments on the blog today?

    • Richard December 2, 2018 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      The same troll keeps changing his name.
      Keeps finding new ways to get on here.
      Just ignore don’t feed him

  17. Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 5:42 pm - Reply

    Its likely the same guy thats always on here trying to troll…sounds like he’s getting bitter and desperate and angry at not being able get most of his comments on the blog anymore. He clearly has no life other than to troll, so it’s probably really getting to him.

  18. Rodney December 2, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    Evening FV3-GFS run looks better brings heavier snow back further north. Just because things shift south doesn’t mean they don’t come back north, this will be a fun storm to track this week & all the different model runs.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018120218&fh=0

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

  19. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 7:58 pm - Reply

    Call me silly but look at that 500mb map for right now. That’s what I call a North Central US Trough!!!!

  20. snowflakeparkville December 2, 2018 at 8:07 pm - Reply

    GFS and FV3 showing almost exactly the same 5-7 inches in KC. Canadian showing 1, with the heavy snow in a narrow line across Oklahoma-Arkansas-Tennessee. Euro has 4+ inches in north Mississippi, which is crazy.

  21. L.B December 2, 2018 at 8:44 pm - Reply

    I hope it is a very white Christmas! and I am not much of a snow fan.

    • Matt December 2, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

      Not going to happen looks Warm.

  22. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 9:04 pm - Reply

    Look how the 18z FV3 handles the Rocky Trough at the 500 geopotential heights – that thing owns the nation lol

  23. Chris Paxton December 2, 2018 at 9:14 pm - Reply

    Foodl3, Can you post a link for that please? Thanks sir!

  24. Hockeynut69 December 2, 2018 at 9:15 pm - Reply

    Just saw a horrific house fire off A highway and 131st street just north of Liberty. Praying that all made it out safely. It’s very sad, I experienced this in the month of December as a child and would not wish it on anyone. We were not so lucky as I lost two younger siblings.

  25. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 9:17 pm - Reply

    As much as we would like to censor the weather, in 2 weeks it will become real obvious.

  26. f00dl3 December 2, 2018 at 9:22 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120218/fv3p_z500a_us_61.png

    And that’s barrel 2 of a double barrel trough with oscillating lows that dive to Mexico digger!

    • Clint December 3, 2018 at 6:00 am - Reply

      That will be massive!

  27. snowhater December 2, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    i am glad you snowlovers love these big snows poeple die and hhave car wrecks in 2002 in that bad storrn when we had that ice i was stramded in my car for por 6 hours was in bad shape i ran out ofhgas and alkmost froze to death so thats why i hate v snow

    • Mr. Pete December 2, 2018 at 10:52 pm - Reply

      What do you consider a big snow? Why so angry tonight? No snow on the ground and Chiefs won.

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 10:59 pm - Reply

      People get sunburns and skin cancer, but I still like the sun. People slip in puddles and drown in flash flooding, but I still like rain and thunderstorms. People have accidents on the snow, but I still love the snow. People die in cars every day, but I still enjoy my car. Take a logic class, you need it desperately troll.

    • Mr. Pete December 2, 2018 at 10:59 pm - Reply

      Winter has not started. Perhaps you should take a trip to the Virgin Islands until the season passes. Thoughts?

    • Heat Miser December 2, 2018 at 11:00 pm - Reply

      And why are you on a blog full of weather enthusiasts and snow lovers if you hate the snow…except to troll. Spare me the fake outrage.

      • JimH December 3, 2018 at 8:06 am - Reply

        Faggot!

    • Turd Ferguson December 2, 2018 at 11:17 pm - Reply

      Seems like you hate coherent typing more

  28. Supercell December 2, 2018 at 10:07 pm - Reply

    More people die on wet roads from rain than snow or ice combined. Do you hate rain also? Sun causes skin cancer. Do you hate sunshine? Dry weather causes fires that burn homes. Wind whips flames and flips boats.. Cold weather can feeeze you to death and hot weather gives people heat stroke…..what killer weather do you prefer? It all can be dangerous so my advice is make peace with the weather and enjoy it. Especially since you’re on a weather blog…

  29. morganu December 2, 2018 at 10:14 pm - Reply

    GFS and Canadian are back south. Brutal cutoff.

  30. Mr. Pete December 2, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

    Gary live on the air now!!!

  31. Jack December 2, 2018 at 11:35 pm - Reply

    I think all of our dispositions towards this year’s winter snow fall should no doubt be very good right now– 2 major snow storms in the plains the past 2 weekends! And the second one will likely come back late January and be further south. I am going with around 30 inches.

    • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 6:13 am - Reply

      But don’t forget the Harmonic means we get a cold half and cool have of the cycle – but both halfs run overall below average!

      • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 6:14 am - Reply

        And double the chances, double the fun – that’s the statement of the great snow of 2 short harmonics for a longer than usual cycle – unless they are indeed not harmonics – but I do see 1 single feature in the long length cycle that stands out that wasn’t in the harmonic part of the pattern.

  32. Terry December 3, 2018 at 1:36 am - Reply

    Too many people watching model the model runs they will change And I’m trying not to do that.

  33. f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 6:16 am - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120306/fv3p_z500_vort_us_65.png

    Look at that puppy!

    lol. It’s going to be very exciting to see how many solutions we have put out for that 1 week period!

  34. snowflakeparkville December 3, 2018 at 7:34 am - Reply

    Dusting of snow on grass/cars/roofs/trees/etc and a few areas of pavement in southern Platte County.

  35. Rodney December 3, 2018 at 7:39 am - Reply

    Some models trended north again. Snow is back on for Friday night and Saturday! BTW I love Rush also. My favorite band by far!

  36. JimH December 3, 2018 at 8:05 am - Reply

    Motherfuckers!

  37. JimH December 3, 2018 at 8:06 am - Reply

    Fuck all of you!

  38. f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

    Gary – I think you need to make this a CC-bill or pay site again. I wouldn’t mind a small nominal 99c/month fee. At least something you can tie accounts in with credit cards to get rid of people who are abusing the system. This blog system you have is rather too open I think, as it allows anyone to post anonymously without any account, and all you have to do is pop an email/name in and it has no validation of who the user is what so ever. Sadly, it appears we have people abusing this.

    • f00dl3 December 3, 2018 at 8:33 am - Reply

      Questionable content websites have in the past successfully kept underage visitors out by using a system where they do not charge a credit card but use it for verification purposes only. Wonder if a system like that would work?

    • Tony December 3, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

      He went to a seminar on successful blogs and look what is happening here…smh

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