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Good Sunday bloggers,

It is another Sunday and it’s another Sunday with snow. Today, however, is a completely different animal than last week. A strong storm that ripped out into the Plains Friday, producing severe weather from Oklahoma to Illinois and a snowstorm in Nebraska and northwest Iowa is now weakening and headed to the Great Lakes. Disturbances are rotating around the system and one this morning is bringing snow to south KC and another disturbance will affect, mostly northern Missouri tonight. Temperatures this morning were above freezing in most locations and this is huge in keeping roads damp to wet and not icy. Tonight may be different.

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TODAY AND TONIGHT: The morning band of snow south of the river will fall apart by 10 AM-Noon. The rest of the day will be cloudy, windy and cold with flurries. Then, tonight a new area of snow will likely cross northern Missouri. It may extend south to I-70. Temperatures will be dropping into the 20s, so where the band of snow tracks a dusting to 1/2″ is possible with slick spots likely. Even if most of the snow accumulates on the grass, any paved surfaces that are wet/damp will turn to black ice.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Here is our snowfall forecast for tonight. The best chance of accumulation is across northern Missouri, but the I-70 corridor is not immune from slick spots.

3

MONDAY: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs around 30°. Slick spots are possible during the morning.

2

There are two systems to track during the next week. They are timed for Thursday and Friday-Saturday.

The first system for Thursday is along a cold front and does not look like a big issue a this time. We could see a period of rain and snow with minor accumulation. There could be slick spots and it is something to watch.

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The second system has our attention. This looks like a big winter storm. When we were tracking the blizzard last week, the question was where will it track? If it tracked farther south, then KC gets more into the blizzard.  And, as we know, it did. This storm has the same track issue, but in order for our area to get snow, the storm has to track farther north. We have data from every model and each run of every model showing a different track. We will follow this through the week.

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We are still at 7.8″ of snow for the season and have exceeded the totals from the last three years. We WILL add more to this total in December.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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Tonyf00dl3JimHRodneysnowflakeparkville Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary – I think you need to make this a CC-bill or pay site again. I wouldn’t mind a small nominal 99c/month fee. At least something you can tie accounts in with credit cards to get rid of people who are abusing the system. This blog system you have is rather too open I think, as it allows anyone to post anonymously without any account, and all you have to do is pop an email/name in and it has no validation of who the user is what so ever. Sadly, it appears we have people abusing this.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Questionable content websites have in the past successfully kept underage visitors out by using a system where they do not charge a credit card but use it for verification purposes only. Wonder if a system like that would work?

Tony
Guest
Tony

He went to a seminar on successful blogs and look what is happening here…smh

JimH
Guest
JimH

Fuck all of you!

JimH
Guest
JimH

Motherfuckers!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Some models trended north again. Snow is back on for Friday night and Saturday! BTW I love Rush also. My favorite band by far!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Dusting of snow on grass/cars/roofs/trees/etc and a few areas of pavement in southern Platte County.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image

Look at that puppy!

lol. It’s going to be very exciting to see how many solutions we have put out for that 1 week period!

Terry
Guest
Terry

Too many people watching model the model runs they will change And I’m trying not to do that.

Jack
Guest
Jack

I think all of our dispositions towards this year’s winter snow fall should no doubt be very good right now– 2 major snow storms in the plains the past 2 weekends! And the second one will likely come back late January and be further south. I am going with around 30 inches.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But don’t forget the Harmonic means we get a cold half and cool have of the cycle – but both halfs run overall below average!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And double the chances, double the fun – that’s the statement of the great snow of 2 short harmonics for a longer than usual cycle – unless they are indeed not harmonics – but I do see 1 single feature in the long length cycle that stands out that wasn’t in the harmonic part of the pattern.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary live on the air now!!!

morganu
Member
morganu

GFS and Canadian are back south. Brutal cutoff.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

More people die on wet roads from rain than snow or ice combined. Do you hate rain also? Sun causes skin cancer. Do you hate sunshine? Dry weather causes fires that burn homes. Wind whips flames and flips boats.. Cold weather can feeeze you to death and hot weather gives people heat stroke…..what killer weather do you prefer? It all can be dangerous so my advice is make peace with the weather and enjoy it. Especially since you’re on a weather blog…

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

i am glad you snowlovers love these big snows poeple die and hhave car wrecks in 2002 in that bad storrn when we had that ice i was stramded in my car for por 6 hours was in bad shape i ran out ofhgas and alkmost froze to death so thats why i hate v snow

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What do you consider a big snow? Why so angry tonight? No snow on the ground and Chiefs won.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

People get sunburns and skin cancer, but I still like the sun. People slip in puddles and drown in flash flooding, but I still like rain and thunderstorms. People have accidents on the snow, but I still love the snow. People die in cars every day, but I still enjoy my car. Take a logic class, you need it desperately troll.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Winter has not started. Perhaps you should take a trip to the Virgin Islands until the season passes. Thoughts?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

And why are you on a blog full of weather enthusiasts and snow lovers if you hate the snow…except to troll. Spare me the fake outrage.

JimH
Guest
JimH

Faggot!

Turd Ferguson
Guest
Turd Ferguson

Seems like you hate coherent typing more

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image

And that’s barrel 2 of a double barrel trough with oscillating lows that dive to Mexico digger!

Clint
Guest
Clint

That will be massive!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

As much as we would like to censor the weather, in 2 weeks it will become real obvious.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Just saw a horrific house fire off A highway and 131st street just north of Liberty. Praying that all made it out safely. It’s very sad, I experienced this in the month of December as a child and would not wish it on anyone. We were not so lucky as I lost two younger siblings.

Chris Paxton
Guest
Chris Paxton

Foodl3, Can you post a link for that please? Thanks sir!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look how the 18z FV3 handles the Rocky Trough at the 500 geopotential heights – that thing owns the nation lol

L.B
Guest
L.B

I hope it is a very white Christmas! and I am not much of a snow fan.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Not going to happen looks Warm.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

GFS and FV3 showing almost exactly the same 5-7 inches in KC. Canadian showing 1, with the heavy snow in a narrow line across Oklahoma-Arkansas-Tennessee. Euro has 4+ inches in north Mississippi, which is crazy.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Call me silly but look at that 500mb map for right now. That’s what I call a North Central US Trough!!!!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Evening FV3-GFS run looks better brings heavier snow back further north. Just because things shift south doesn’t mean they don’t come back north, this will be a fun storm to track this week & all the different model runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018120218&fh=0

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Its likely the same guy thats always on here trying to troll…sounds like he’s getting bitter and desperate and angry at not being able get most of his comments on the blog anymore. He clearly has no life other than to troll, so it’s probably really getting to him.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Whats up with comments on the blog today?

Richard
Guest
Richard

The same troll keeps changing his name.
Keeps finding new ways to get on here.
Just ignore don’t feed him

Clint
Guest
Clint
Clint
Guest
Clint
Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Wow the trolls are out in force today. What a loser…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Wishcasting warning: So to be completely nondescript and not mention dates, lengths, and just put my feelings out…. hypothetically if the low at 500 mb tracks the way it tracks, and if the GFS is modeling the surface low stalling out and reforming in error, then the track of the upper level low and surface low would be along the general track taking the core track from DFW -> Little Rock -> Cape Gireadu. Theoretically, all this 1.75-2.5″ of moisture, in that scenario, would be snowfall of 16+” for the entire KC area. Furthermore, if something weird were to happen… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That would be sweet! 😉

Matt
Guest
Matt

100 inches.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Funny. Every post today mentioning a 1 week period of time get wiped. I’m not even mentioning XX days.

Tony
Guest
Tony

Hmm indeed

Richard
Guest
Richard

I noticed that 2nd link you put up is gone?
Wonder what happened. Lol now my reply up there makes no sense
Would remove it if I could

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

didnt you just mention a week’s time right there? LOL

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

i am with big daddy puff the system saturday stays south and hheat mizer well be wrong about this storm

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Get ready for lots more poof. All the ingredients came together last Sunday. We WILL get more snow obviously just nothing like that at least the rest of this winter.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…are you over your deep depression from the last snow storm snowhater? You seem more energized today. I wont be wrong if it goes south, I have no idea where it will go yet, and neither does anyone else. Mabye in a few days we’ll have a decent idea of the storm’s path.

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Interesting football discussion, the natl champ will of course be Alabama, not a fan though. War Eagle!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Okay….love I mean love your name!!!!!!

Huge Rush fan here!!!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

+1 on loving RUSH!

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

AMEN!!!!

morganu
Member
morganu

EURO even further south than previous run.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

stop living run to run this far out. As Joe L. said in his blog yesterday, not going to even discuss model runs six days out as they will change 20-30 times before they start to resemble what will actually happen

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I’m not living run to run. Just commenting on what I see.

morganu
Member
morganu

I’m not living run to run. Just commenting on what I see.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Exactly, nothing wrong with pointing out model runs and trends even though we know they will change. Just discussion.

Tony
Guest
Tony

Grow up Heat!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I just pointed out that pointing out each model run six days out, as Gary pointed out above, doesn’t mean much at all. So, to say, “look, the next run shows it went more south”…well, that’s great but does it really mean anything historically? Well, no, not really. Lets see what the track looks like next week. I’d say Tuesday I’ll start to pay attention, and Wednesday I’ll start to give models some credibility. Man up there Tony, speaking the truth, even if you don’t like it, is no call to be unpleasant. LoL

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Enjoy last Sunday’s blizzard. There will be ZERO more storms like that the rest of this winter plus a major warmup is coming around Christmas-New Years.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Actually in Lawrence, we only got about four inches from that blizzard. I wager we will get a snow of greater than four inches the rest of the winter.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Harmonics, yes

Hint
Synonym for revolution

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hmmmmm

comment image

Richard
Guest
Richard

4 corners trough ?
And the date, 13-15h ?

Richard
Guest
Richard

I meant Dec 13th-15th

JimT
Guest
JimT

Gary,
As u are, I’m a snow lover, so I’m rooting for a northerly track on the storm for next weekend, have a great Sunday. Go Chiefs!

morganu
Member
morganu

Looks like Oklahoma and Arkansas are in for a major snow next week. Been a while for them.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This area midway between Manhattan & Marysville got 2.28″ of rain Friday afternoon through Saturday, and that was followed by 1″ of wet snow (huge flakes) that quickly melted to 0.16″ of water, bringing our year-to-date precipitation to 39.23″ and our autumn snowfall to 8.1″ 
Presently, it is 32° with snow flurries, and the Big Blue River is 10′ above flood stage.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=top&gage=blrk1

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

On the storm for next weekend I feel it will be slightly further north maybe not for northern MO but I feel central MO gets in on the snow. Yesterday the NWS in St Louis had a 50% chance of snow in central MO around Ashland & Jefferson City areas & on this mornings update they bummed up chances to 60% Friday night & 80% chance of snow on Saturday. It’s not often you see that high of a chance issued by them 6 days out so they have must high confidence. The GFS & Canadian both had 4-8” snows… Read more »

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

We’re over 13” now up in Maryville with more tonight. I bet by March we are over 40”! Have a great Sunday bloggers!
Michael

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Sunday to you sir!! Hope your weekend has been a good one!! Just some random thoughts on this chilly Sunday morning that are based on my interpretations of this LRC. Mine and interpretations should have anyone reading saying danger Will Robinson and must they must be taken with a grain of salt. I have worn many clown suits on this blog and eaten much crow and this may well be one of those times again!! To begin, my little neck of the woods has picked up close to 1.4 inches of rain from this system. With the frozen… Read more »

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Roll Tide!

Weatherjaded
Guest
Weatherjaded

First from our local region.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

First