Strong Plains Storm System

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Good Saturday bloggers,

One of the wilder Novembers is over and since this is the first of December, it is November statistics day.

The average temperature was 35.6°, which was 8 degrees below average. This is the coldest November ever recorded (35.9° 1976, 36.5°, 2000) and we had 7.6″ of snow which is the second snowiest November ever recorded.  WOW! We ended up below average on rainfall, but it would have been above average if this current storm system was 12 hours faster.

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What is next? We have a strong storm system in the Plains and this will influence our weather through Monday. We will see more rain and possibly a minor accumulation of snow, but we are missing the snowstorm.

Here is radar from early Saturday morning.  We are seeing another classic storm system with the comma head across Nebraska and northern Kansas. The center of the upper level storm is moving north through northeast Kansas. Last Sunday we were in the comma head and we had a blizzard. The comma head of this storm will stay north and a major snowstorm is getting its act together across Nebraska and eventually in to Iowa. We are in the dry slot of the storm where it is cloudy, breezy and mild along with a few rain showers. The wrap around is in central Kansas and that will sweep in this afternoon.

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SATURDAY NOON: The wrap around will be on the way with areas of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperatures will range from the 30s and 40s north to 50s south.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: It will be breezy with scattered rain, some moderate to heavy downpours. Temperatures will begin to drift down to the 40s, 30s north.

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SATURDAY EVENING: It will be windy and cold with scattered rain showers. Temperatures will be above freezing from Maryville to Pleasanton, so roads will be wet to damp. The colder air will be entering from the southwest as a strong surface low tracks to the north.

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be windy and cold with northwest winds gusting 30-35 mph. Temperatures will be around 32° with flurries possible. Roads will be damp to wet.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs in the 30s. Flurries are possible.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The strong storm system will move into the Great Lakes and one last disturbance will rotate south around it bringing us scattered snow showers. Temperatures will drop just below freezing and so, we could see some minor accumulation on grassy surfaces. If there is enough snow, we could have some slick spots on roads by Monday morning.

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MONDAY MORNING: Any snow will be over with perhaps a few flurries. Temperatures will drop to the mid 20s and this is why we could have slick spots if there is enough water on the roads. That will depend on how much snow occurs Sunday night.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: We may see a dusting to 1/2″ Sunday night, mainly on grassy surfaces. 6″-12″ of snow is likely across Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Omaha, on this model, has around 1″ of snow. But, some data has them seeing over 5″ of snow as they are near the edge of the snowstorm.  It is a tough forecast in Omaha.

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We may not see the sun until Wednesday and our next chance of a winter storm is next weekend.

Have a great this weekend.

Jeff Penner

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Matt
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Katharidinaus
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Katharidinaus

Moderate snow out here at 95th and Antioch. 33 degrees. Grass and mulch starting to get covered.

morganu
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morganu

EURO not budging one bit. Keeps it south.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol..its doesnt really matter a week out dude….check the models again in a few days

Rodney
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Rodney

Here is the latest GFS, sorry I copied the Canadian link twice above.
Rodney (Ashland, MO)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018120200&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=

Rodney
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Rodney

Loving the trends in the models with at least some agreement & consistency for being 6-7 days out. Both the GFS & Canadian showing 6”+ across central MO more just to my south in the Ozarks, seems to have edged a little further north. The Euro on the other hand still has a donut hole with less than an inch in central MO but 12”+ along MO/AR border. Time do watch models over the next 4-5 days, exciting for all the snow enthusiasts like myself.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018120200&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018120200&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Drove a total of 450 miles today and tonight pushing snow around and cleaning out switches. Have a wide variety of reports across our territory. Back at it again tomorrow and we’ll see what we end up with. 8 in looks like a safe bet

Adam
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Adam

We just had the 2nd snowiest November(AND A BLIZZARD!!)on record, what looks like a very active pattern, and there is still a ton of negativity in here.

Really incredible. Hey

Clint
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Clint
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Adam
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Adam

Gonna be a tough model run for Morgan and ClassyCat.

morganu
Member
morganu

Cautiously pessimistic.

Adam
Guest
Adam

I get it man, I do. But when do you enjoy the ride? It’s obviously going to be a different winter this year. We know this already. Seeing as how we are pacing for an above average winter, now might be a good time to find some optimism.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol..Classy Cat kept trying to find ways for the blizzard to miss us..right up to the time it hit us. Classy Cat….quit being so negative, its a real drag. We are clearly in a new, much wetter pattern. Numberous rain and snow events the last two months, including a freaking blizzard in November.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Heat please please be quiet. Remember your inserting in a conversation you claimed? My statement is true. I never comment on models. Go back and read Robert. I always said what I thought was going to happen. As it turned out, I was incorrect. It’s not a hard thing to do…..admit you were wrong. You should try it sometime. Find ways for the blizzard to miss???? Do you really not understand that neither me, nor anyone else can actually cause the weather to do one thing or another? Tell me where my comment about not commenting on models is negative.… Read more »

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

What? I never comment on models.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Some do that every year…easy to panic. The last two months have been freaking awesome…tons of rain, and numerous snow events, one even a blizzard…and its still three weeks until winter.

SnowCommander
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SnowCommander

Low pressure is located directly over my backyard 😲 per radar!

Bsmike
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Bsmike

It’s 9:03pm and ou still sucks

JimT
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JimT

Gary,
Boomer Sooner!! Awesome game!
How’s the potential storm track looking for next weekend?

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Maybe it’s like stoplights you get stopped at that seem like you hit it red each time and piss you off, but in reality don’t recall you hit it green sometimes (ok that was weird I admit), but it sure seems when a big storm a week out on the models targets Nebraska/South Dakota, it seems like it almost always is right……like it never takes a 200 mile jog south. When this part of country gets targeted a week out, more often than not storms do miss us badly. I know this blizzard we had did move south some and… Read more »

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

we ve had a few bad snow years, but this new pattern has been awesome…tons of rain and numerous snows in the last two months…including a freaking blizzard….and its till three weeks until winter starts. It seems to me rather odd to me that you dismiss all of that…KC has been hit by plenty of snow storms since I have lived here…its not that unusual. You have to get your mind out of the dry stretch weve had the last few winters…this new pattern is clearly much more active for us. If that last couple of months havent convinced you… Read more »

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Wait, werent you the one all the way up to the blizzard constantly it would miss us…until it didnt? LoL..I get your MO now.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Yes I thought it would miss. I was wrong. At least I’m not an antagonist on here like you. And I wanted the storm. I just thought it would miss. If you’d like to be civil please do. If not just tell me otherwise and we can discuss.

morganu
Member
morganu

High pressure will squash it.

Terry
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Terry

We really don’t know what’s gonna happen at this point. Maybe not

morganu
Member
morganu

FV3 is way south of previous run. Nice storm for Oklahoma.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

in this run…the runs will likely change day to day as they usually do. Tomorrows runs might show a good storm for NE lol

Terry
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Terry

That’s right heat and look at the storm we had last Sunday And how many times it changed each day on the data. But we know there are some that will say that runs right or not right . I do that myself and in going to try not to this time around on end of next week’s this. Like Gary’s says Hang on for the ride and I’m ready.

Alexander
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Alexander

It seems like these snow storms always move north when it is on us a week out – maybe this will move north on southern Missouri and come to us!

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

If the cold air is in place I wouldn’t think the storms would go south unless that is just the track this year. Seems like when cold air is trying to come in at the same time as a storm and pushes hard then the storms go south?? Or I’m just a hopeless snow dreamer.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Cold air might get too intense this winter and shove all the storms south. Worrisome. March blizzard though?

morganu
Member
morganu

EURO back south again. All the models are really south with the low anyway.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

luckily, a week out they are more often wrong than not

Kurt
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Kurt

I think it will be father south and southeast no impacting immediate KC metro, depends on how much impact cold air has on pushing storm track deeper south.

No consistency of models run to run that far out yet as to where it will be, I’d guess it’s an I-44 storm

morganu
Member
morganu

Hit the nail on the head.

JimT
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JimT

Gary, Fv3-Gfs model trends toward monster amounts of snow next weekend, it will be interesting to see if this indeed happens.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Loving this new lrc, so many storms to track!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look at that Baja bomb too on the FV3 at the end of the period…

morganu
Member
Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Fv3-gfs monster next weekend

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

1.4 inches of rain in east Lawrence so far as of 11:20 am today.

craig
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craig

I’ve got 1.3″ in the gauge here on W Lenexa.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Seeking rain totals for Lawrence since last night – since I brought in my rain gauge for the Winter. TIA

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser
j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Thanks, but they restart daily totals at midnight. Then the previous day’s totals revert to what the airport received, IIRC. Well over 95% of the time in years’ past – I get more than the airport; though this year it was nearly reversed.

Had several tropical downpours between 10:15 & midnight last night.

Larry? Jason?

Larry
Guest
Larry

1.23″ in NW Lawrence through 8:00 AM Saturday. Will report more for Sunday.

Janet
Guest
Janet

What were rain totals last night? I live in west Olathe near K-7 and College and my rain gage didn’t work. It was pouring several times and was hoping to know how much it was! Loved how it about washed the old snow away. But, I’m ready for the next one! 🙂

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

Janet try this website.

http://Www.stormwatch.com

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

How do you pull those same 24hr totals for another city, Lawrence for example

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

Thank you, Mike! That was very helpful.

Jsnet
Guest
Jsnet

Thanks! That was perfect. It showed K-7/ K-10 had 1.1in. That’s almost where I live. 👍🏻

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Wrap around happening at my house in SW Topeka…the wind is now generally from the west and the temp has dropped from 51F earlier to 49F. Radar shows this pretty well.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Update: the temp at my house has fallen from 49F to 44F in the last 20 minutes, so the colder air is wrapping back in now.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Look at the radar. Looks like a hurricane spinning over Kansas.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Third??

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
A1hoops
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A1hoops

Now if this model can stay consistent and move about 50 miles further north:)

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

First