Winter Storm & Tornado Risk On The Last Day Of November

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a winter storm forming today and it has a strong spring component to the system.  In today’s blog we will look at today’s set up and also look ahead to one week from now.  Let’s begin with the watches and warnings around the nation this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-11-30 at 7.39.17 AM

There are winter storm warnings over parts of Nebraska and South Dakota; Dense Fog Advisories in the gray; and wind advisories over southwest Texas and New Mexico.  A major storm is developing today and this storm is caught is a blocked up pattern.  There is a tornado risk as well.  Here is the Severe Weather Tornado Outlook from the SPC:

day1probotlk_1300_torn

The target area is located over far southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas and adjacent areas of Texas and Louisiana.  High levels of low level fuel in the form of high dew points is surging into this region this morning, and as this storm develops today, at the surface and aloft, severe thunderstorms are expected to form in this region.

Dew Points:

1

2Take a look at todays 6 PM surface forecast.  I didn’t plot this map so you can see how it looks without any plotted surface boundaries.  A strong low pressure systems is going to form over the southwestern plains today near the western Oklahoma Panhandle.  Can you see the kinks in the isobars (the lines of equal pressure), the black lines?  The kinks form a surface boundary, and this one is a warm front. There are other features as well.  And, you can see the south Gulf of Mexico flow from deep down into the tropics where the high dew points are being pulled from.  This set up will help begin forming the heavy areas of snow, and the potential severe weather later today down south. It will also produce a chance of thunderstorms here in Kansas City.

Okay, here is the plotted surface map:

2a

This is really a rather fascinating and unique surface set up.  Kansas City will be north of the warm front, and there will still be a surge of higher dew points northward and it will lead to a chance of thunderstorms tonight:

3

The dotted lines show the convective activity predicted. We may see some lightning and hear some thunder in KC tonight.  And, we will potentially see some snowflakes by the end of the weekend as well.  What a couple of months we have just had!

4

That is a lot of snow just northwest of Omaha and Des Moines.  And, then we have this to track in about a week. This is the FV3-GFS model that came out overnight. This model and all of the other models are all over the place on this end of next week storm system.  Some models take it way south, and others take it farther north. There is no consistency at the moment.

5

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy with a chance of rain by evening.  High: 45°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  The chance of rain is 100%.  Temperatures rising a few degrees more, possibly up into the lower 50s.
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with morning showers likely, then a west wind shift.
  • Sunday-Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers, and a minor accumulation of snow possible mainly north of KC.  Windy and turning colder.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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f00dl3Stl78(winon,mn)Mike (OP)BrianTroy Recent comment authors
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Mike (OP)
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Mike (OP)
Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Where is rp county?

Brian
Guest
Brian

RP County Kansas = Republic County, Kansas

Brian
Guest
Brian

Northernmost county directly north of Salina

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thanks Brian

Troy
Guest
Troy

Had 1.70″ of rain overnight but turned to snow about 5:30 am with about an inch of accumulation so far here in RP county.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Upgraded us to a warning overnight. More suitable for what models were showing. I wouldn’t b surprised to hear a little thunder at the onset. Looking like a solid 6 to 8 for my location.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

It looks like an eye is starting to form on the radar this morning

Matt
Guest
Matt

Severe Weather is better then Winter Weather if theirs no Damage. Said to see him pass away.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

President HW Bush dies at 94

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Lightening and low rumble thunder tonight in Prairie Village. What a interesting week of weather.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah blizzard, then Tstorms

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

With this being a negatively tilted system storm tonight what are chances when this returns later in the winter weather it could be negatively tilted storm system again? Isn’t a negatively tilted storm stronger than a positively tilted system & have more impacts & produce more snow & ice?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

It’s a strong system, but it brings up far too much warm air to bring us snow. I’m not sure we’ll ever be cold enough for this storm to produce winter precip for us.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I could see it producing a quick 1/2″ ice before rapidly changing to rain in future cycles

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

What is with your obsession w ice storms? You did this last year, I hope you’re not actually hoping for this, if you are you’ve obviously never been in one that produced .5″ or more of ice, they are a f-ing disaster.

BRAD WILLIAMS
Guest
BRAD WILLIAMS

Chance of a major ice storm this winter

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

Now cloud-to-ground lightning. Wow!

morganu
Member
morganu

Uninspiring models runs today. Weather looks boring until middle of December.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

come on, models change all the time…next weekend is supposed to be looking interesting

LSDoc
Guest
LSDoc

Cloud-to-cloud lightning in Lenexa!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This setup… wow, 39F still. 10 degrees colder and this would be major ice storm

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Spencer ware is once again the starting rb for the chiefs I applaud they let hunt go after his actions. In weather looks like we will see a nice rain tonight and wash off that yuck on the streets and cars.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, what a scum bag. And any other players caught on camera hitting women…no warnings, no probation, no suspension…you’re done.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Wasn’t bad enough for him to be kicked off team.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

And look at what the 18z GFS is showing again. Yesterday’s and today’s 18z runs have picked up on it.

comment image

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

That’s really short!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The system is still there, but the high pressure is supressing it into the south across Oklahoma and Arkansas (primarily). I don’t know the exact time period for the recurrence of these systems, but aside from the early October 6-9th, the Oct 14th snow, a couple of rains and the one early November snow then last weeks storm, there has been active storms, but not ever system targeted the same areas (I think that we will have active periods that won’t produce) in each cycle and the models identify potential systems that would verify with the lrc but or we… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Next weekend went POOF on the new GFS.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

If all the jargon dumped on this blog could be converted to snow, KC would look like Antarctica. (ha)

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Is it me or did the temps not get as warm as they predicted today? Any chance this could impact our precip form tonight in the metro?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Up here they have put us under a winter weather advisory for up to 7 inches. I’m surprised the didn’t put us under a warning. Got the notice from powers above we will b working 48 hrs of continuous service for snow removal sat n sun. A bit of Overkill if u ask me. Oh well

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s getting froggy out there.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

7.0 earthquake near Anchorage

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Unfortunately, we can expect more seismic activity with the upcoming grand solar minimum.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

What I don’t understand is why worry about whether peers or competitors do not believe in the cycle length. If they are non-believers then that is their issue. You can’t please everyone and just have to tune out the chatter. If you believe in the theory, then I certainly wouldn’t hide it. By not discussing it, they have basically won in intimidation. Just my two-cents.

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

Temperature here in McLouth was 41. Now at 37. Is it suppose to climb again before the rain begins later this evening ?

morganu
Member
morganu

The storm next week looks like a typical southern slider turned east coast bomb. EURO has shown this for two runs now. GFS has to an extent too. I know its a long way out, but not feeling this one.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

According to the euro though it’s not that far south along and south of interstate 44 with heaviest snow won’t take much of a shift north to bring that snow especially into the central Missouri area where I’m located. Time to watch the models hopefully by Tuesday or Wednesday we will have be a better idea on what may happen

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

GFS for Dec 8-9 looks fun.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Strong quake in AK just 11 mi. south of Anchorage. My brother in law is in Seward. They have been told to go to higher ground. There is no higher ground there !
Tsunami warning out for Cook Inlet and Kenai Penninsula.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

Looking at google maps, it shows red on almost every street in anchorage. People heeding the tsunami warning most likely, or maybe they just had some snow or combination of both. That is a strong quake that close to Anchorage. Fingers crossed no tsunami!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Late next week into next weekend looking more & more intriguing. GFS runs & now Euro showing a nice winter storm about 7 -8 days from now. Placement & amounts will change but maybe this is a good trend. Wanting a big snow in central MO. KC & St Louis had theirs now it’s my turn, lol. Look at the Euro through Next weekend Sunday. Hopefully that will shift north a little, let the model watching fun begin.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20181210-0000z.html

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Makes sense to me.

12/8 @ 12 pm forecast 500 mb geopotential heights

vs

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Clint
Guest
Clint

Will the cold air be able to hang on long enough?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That’s the million dollar question. This relates to the storm that brought the cold air down, but was not in place with cold air. It may interface with it as it’s pulling it down though – at least, has a much better chance of doing so than this weekend’s storm. But omg the week after next is going to be a ride or I’m totally wrong on my interpretation of the cycle length.

Clint
Guest
Clint

If you are right, and combined with how cold this pattern is and how frequent storms are it could be possible to have at least some snow on the ground everyday through at least the entire month of January.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Major warmup coming around Christmas time…………

Clint
Guest
Clint

What part of this pattern has produced a major warm up. We had about a week with average to slightly above average temps. So that warm up would be what low 40s at best.

craig
Guest
craig

The edge of stronger storm possibility has crept closer to the metro.
Will be fun to see lightning and hear thunder tonight…just five days after a blizzard!!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3
Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

How many times has that huge trough appeared since Oct 6?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

So this is Algebra, find “x” 🤨

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If I’m right about tonight’s storm, I’m pretty confident that I know the cycle length. Shouldn’t be too hard to figure out.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s funny because the surface features feel familiar but the upper level features look different if your referring to the cold, heavy rain and thunderstorm day we had. I elaborated further but probably talked too many dates.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Remember, the is/was always in some transition. We are either in transition to a different season or air masses or out of old LRC into new LRC with fall changes happening as well. The oscillation is normal but the oscillation of cold vortex’s swinging through are either in transition to or from one push or multiple pushes. Without saying we are in this version of the revolutions, one should look at the possibility of multiple harmonics of each revolution in relation to transitioning vortex’s or air masses in conjunction with said storms or possibility of said storms that may actually… Read more »

JimH
Guest
JimH

cycle 3 already?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look at the way the GFS shows the lows… oscillating. The way the lows are modeled to oscillate does not match up with early October. Go on a bit more of a time warp – not much – but just a bit more. This is what I call the “North Central US trough” – it’s a pattern where lows oscillate through the flow to give an appearance of a trough effect because the constant waves of energy dipping both ends of the stream.in a rex block pattern.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

wrong again

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We will see if we have a big trough dive in Dec 14-21 time frame which has a trough dig and then turn into a cutoff low possibly as far south as Baja for a day or two and then swinging out. If I am wrong then that will not happen.

Randy Keller
Guest
Randy Keller

dont question the man!! and Gary is the MAN! thanks for the great blog Gary

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

If you search around the weather internets it’s announced how long our cycle is *hint hint*

J. R.
Guest
J. R.

Okay, we cannot discuss the “C” word here, lol. We also are not supposed to pay attention to models.

If we are trying to discuss the LRC in this blog, what is really left to discuss since vital components are left out of the discussion?

The “C” word used to be discussed here – so, if Gary is worried about someone stealing his theory, where are the competitors? Us?

This is just silly.

Richard
Guest
Richard

This is the weather2020 blog. Not the LRC blog. 😁
So we talk weather.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Stalker that whines.

Nate
Guest
Nate

With the LRC, there shouldn’t be any guessing or constant obsessing with models, right? That’s what I don’t understand. Should be, here’s what we’ll see and that’s it; otherwise the LRC hasn’t really changed anything..everyone is still just guessing and constantly changing their guess…it’s the way weather prediction has always been,

brian
Guest
brian

amen

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The LRC won’t say this is where the storm will track though! It only says there will be a feature kicking out in the plains somewhere. It may be positive tilted, it may be negative tilted. If we have a strong low level jet in summer we may have rain between the waves of energy if they trip storms over the Dodge City region. If it’s winter we may have the storm swing out and bring so much cold air in that it cuts rainfall / snowfall off until enough lift is established with the next wave.

KGal
Guest
KGal

I am hoping next week’s storm goes north because we are having our family Thanksgiving dinner on Saturday! I need to set the turkey out to thaw in a couple days but if the weather is going to be bad no one will come. Come on rain!

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

October 6th is when Gary said “welcome to the new LRC” do the math and that is the cycle

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But also if you read between the lines and compare 500 mb charts you would realize that while Oct 6 was the “full fledged, this is majority all new LRC content” date, he did state after the Autumnal equinox that the pattern started shifting, per his statement it was mostly the old still but transitioning. I believe it may have been much earlier as features started showing up as far back as late August/early September – specifically the way the Rocky Trough set up and I swear I’m the only one who remembers the flooding in Manhattan Kansas and Iowa…… Read more »

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

The cycle length has been announced, just not on this platform. You just have to do a little digging

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Do not forget before we had the Rocky Trough we had a lot of storms move in from the southwest. Remember how I was saying that this part of the pattern was something we had not seen before in the last LRC – storms with tracks where the precip was moving our way from Dodge City KS up to our area? This is the part of the pattern that gave us several precip events moving in from the southwest. Thus they are bringing in warmer air and in this early season setup mainly rain. Later in the winter these could… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Please no ice storms.
Did Gary say anything about ice storms in winter special ?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Do not use models to judge our pattern – use 500 mb maps from the current time. Models are suggestions. Use the LRC to validate model suggestions but do not use the models to base your interpretation of the LRC.

SPC has a good resource for surface maps, if you go to http://spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps

Richard
Guest
Richard

It is hard to visiualize/focus on current or projected future storms without not being able to talk about you know what.
It is just very weird.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Really hard now that we are almost xx days into the new LRC.
Can I say almost 60 days, because Gary identified the first day as Oct 6, before the new rule was enacted, right ?

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

You’re really pushing the envelope today

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We’ve already seen this storm twice. This will be the 3rd time.

Mike
Guest
Mike

So are you saying this began in September?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Yes

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

How is that possible? There’s not enough space between October 6 and now to fit that many cycles, no matter how short they are.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s not old old old new new new – it’s old old old/old/old/new old/old/new/new, old/new/new/new, new new new

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Foodl3,

You are very close to another cycle theory and further away from the LRC. I studied the cycle/pattern setting up earlier for 2 years and found the same thing you will eventually find, it doesn’t. You may find some similarities, but they are the transitioning phase and will not repeat the same throughout the entire LRC.

Richard
Guest
Richard

I don’t mean to push any envelopes.
Notice the blog traffic/comments is way down since the rule came out.
Down except during the blizzard, or during a weather event.
Am I the only one who has noticed this ?
So many of the knowledgeable bloggers are silent/absent on here since.
Except for f00d. Thanks f00d !

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Richard, please stop complaining….it’s a real drag.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Good morning Heat

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

That’s simply not true.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Here are my very “Active November Precip Totals up here in Maryville: I recorded four rain events with the heaviest being .28″ on November 5th, and the least being .05″ on November 24th. I recorded three snow days with the Highest being 9″ on November 25th(Blizzard!) and the least being 1/2″ on November 9th. So TOTAL RAIN: .59″
TOTAL SNOW: 12”
Have a Blessed weekend Bloggers,
Michael

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Is this our early October storm that is going to affect Nebraska this weekend? With the trailing second storm it seems possible it could be. If so we can get a grasp on the psycholing pattern (I’m not sure we’re allowed to say the other word). If not than we could probably say the early October storm was probably an anomaly.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

It is that same part of the pattern but shhhhh don’t tell anyone:)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Compare these 3 maps
comment image
comment image
comment image

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Relates to Sep. 19 & Oct. 23

Richard
Guest
Richard

Look at that top map. FV3-GFS. !!
Is that predicted snowfall across the country on Monday ?
Holy cow. Why do I feel we are getting the shaft

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

theres always been a question about whether we’d get much snow from that second storm. Besides, after getting a blizzard a few days ago, I don’t feel at all shafted. LOL

Richard
Guest
Richard

I know. But just looking at it I feel like saying, come on down ! LOL

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

You’re both stalkers.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

When I read the title, I thought we had a tornado risk! That would be a first for this time of year.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Clickbait

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

So would this be third, or fourth? If the same person posts twice, does it count as one or two?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

But does it matter? lol

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Dang, oh well, I’ll take second