A Storm Hits The West Coast & Is Approaching The Plains

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Good morning bloggers,

Los Angeles is getting some heavy rain today, and this is a good sign for their winter. It is a functional storm that is hitting them now.  If it was going to be an extremely dry winter out there, they would not be getting hit by a storm of this strength.  Here are the impacts and forecast from the NWS in Oxnard, CA:

Screen Shot 2018-11-29 at 7.50.19 AM

This storm heading into California is centered north of San Francisco this morning, and the second system is organizing way offshore.  These two systems are also going to have impacts on other parts of the United States including the KC region:

Screen Shot 2018-11-29 at 7.52.56 AM

3This first storm is going to rip out into the plains on Friday into early Saturday, with the second one coming  into the west coast.  There is a split flow over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  A northern stream is located over the northern territories of Canada, if you look closely. And, the southern stream is quite active with our storm systems cycling through this southern branch.  The first system will be approaching the plains Friday and spinning into an upper level low over northern Kansas and Nebraska, possibly Iowa and Missouri Friday night and Saturday.  What happens with the strength and development of this first storm will have impacts on how the second storm affects our region.  The models have all had some strength of snowfall in our region even in KC by Sunday night or Monday with amounts varying from a few flakes on some models to 8″ of snow on others (Canadian Model).  Now, the solutions should come more in line today, so I am waiting on seeing how these trend as confidence is quite low for our area at the moment.

Let’s concentrate on this first storm:

2

A strong surface low will be moving out into the plains on Saturday morning.  Imagine this storm in the spring;  there would be a significant severe weather risk.  Oh, wait a second, take a look at this December risk on the day 2 outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):

day2otlk_0700

Dew points will be surging north.  And, I am talking high dew points, lots of moisture for this time of the year:

1

This GFS model dew point projection shows 50°+ dew points may make it as far north as KC early Saturday morning. That would push temperatures up into the 50s later tomorrow night, and there is a chance of thunderstorms near Kansas City as well.

A lot to discuss today in this rather strange and interesting weather pattern.  Remember, every LRC is unique, and we are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before. Now, let’s see how this all lines up.

Sporting KC has a big playoff game out at Children’s Mercy Park tonight.  Go Sporting KC!  Have a great day everyone, and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Sunny, my dog, is shaking her head, and I am taking her to the vet this morning, so I will check in soon.

Gary

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TC
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TC

How’s the setup looking now for Dec 7-9th? Tonight through Monday looks like mostly rain with some frozen stuff, but not much. Hoping for some more of the white stuff next weekend.

Richard
Guest
Richard

There is a new blog up

TC
Guest
TC

Thanks

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I think we have to admit that the early October system was an anomaly, so take it out of the equation and look at the events since then and where does that leave us? I think this winter is a perfect scenario to see the impact of the LRC, because by mid winter we’ll have a mod-strong El Nino, and the weather impacts should tell us if it has a bigger piece of the puzzle than the LRC allows.

Richard
Guest
Richard

If memory serves, I think in Feb of 2013 we had back to back big snowstorms.
Anyone know what we had in the way of snow before that, from Nov-Jan, and how much total snowfall for 2012-13 ?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

2012-2013

Oct: 0
Nov: trace
Dec: 3.7
Jan: 1.0
Feb: 20.5 (woah)
Mar: 6.1
Apr: trace
May: 0.5

Richard
Guest
Richard

Thanks snowflake ! Wow!
Over 31″ total ! With nearly 27 Feb-March
That had to be a tough LRC.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Rocky Trough

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Food I don’t know what I’m looking at there except maybe a low forming with that dip.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Going to be a loooong winter. Need to clean up the hiking boots so I can wear them to work.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s still fall bro! It’s depressing I know, but maybe last half of winter will act more like spring since last half of fall decided to be winter?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

1991-92 it happened. I lean toward this especially given we had three consecutive Sunday snows last April. Would be beyond extreme to see two consecutive snowy Aprils.

That being said watch out especially in the mid-south next spring. USA is way overdue for an active severe weather/tornado season.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Not that extreme. Measurable snow in April in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997. 1995 had a trace.

(amounts: 2.8 0.6 2.6 trace 1.0 1.3)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look what GFS is showing DEC 14… it’s catching on.

comment image

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Gary: You had mentioned in your winter forecast that some places could see as little as 15 inches but is much is 37 inches on the high end and that you expected there to maybe be some higher totals just to the south east of Kansas City. So far in November there’s been a big winter storm hit St. Louis and there’s been one that hit KC & northern Missouri and Central Missouri has been squeezed in between on both systems seeing lighter amounts . Do you feel the pattern is setting to where there could be some more widespread… Read more »

Adam
Guest
Adam

I imagine as much colder air is forced south and east some of these storms will target you guys. I could be totally wrong though, just going off what I’ve seen with cold air in the past.

PS I know I’m not Gary, just trying to give you some hope. Lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Let’s see what happens DEC 14-21 with the 7 day 3 wave setup!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Thanks Adam I appreciate it. I’m sure I’ll see above average snow in Ashland & maybe a couple of 6”+ winter storm warning criteria events. We are way over due for a big snow it’s been several years for us.

MaryinShawnee
Guest
MaryinShawnee
Richard
Guest
Richard

10 days away 😆

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

What system produces that?
After this wekend storm GFS is bone dry until late next weekend, then a bigger snow shows up but I’m not trusting that just yet.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Euro is showing 2-4 inches for next week in the metro

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Bring it on! 😉

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I like what I’m seeing just over a week from now Dec 7-9, cold air in place & wintery precipitation. With a cold weather pattern setting up the first few weeks in December could be exciting.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Clint
Guest
Clint

Yes sir look for a big one next Friday and Saturday.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

CMC does show my Arctic outbreak on schedule for Dec 8-9th though.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Looks like this northern plains trough is behaving a lot like the last time around but with a warm twist to it.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Models status for Monday:

Euro: 1 inch
GFS: dusting
FV3: slightly more generous dusting
Canadian: 1-2 inches? Hard to tell.

A few more runs before NAM

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

NAM now showing about an inch.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Reporting in. I had a solid icy glaze on my windshield this AM. Had to bust out the scraper. Didn’t have this issue yesterday.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Eleventh!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Congrats!

Clint
Guest
Clint

Looks like the second wave is going to get ate by the first wave. Gary, does this first wave have a trick up its sleeve?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Second Monday storm is a goner, gets sucked into the flow and “he gone”. I want a want a warm up, need a winter fishing day soon

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Man up real. U can fish in any temps!!! Lol

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

They only bite when it’s warmed up though!
I don’t have walleye and perch that stay active in slush lol

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Come on up to MN..I’ll take u ice fishing. Shanty’s are setting up for the season now!

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

so GEM and EURO you say?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

The 12z ICON didn’t develop the second wave for Monday. Need to see what happens to the first storm to know anything for sure.

morganu
Member
morganu

So the GFS and EURO vs the GEM and ICON. I know which group I’m going with. Storm on Saturday is by far the more dominant feature.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

An active spring look very possible with this LRC

Snow, better get in shape cause they all look like heavy, wet snows this winter.

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

Boom

Jeffg
Guest

First, excited to see all the chances of snow coming up. It will also be interesting to see which models are the most accurate as we move through the winter season.