A Storm Hits The West Coast & Is Approaching The Plains

/A Storm Hits The West Coast & Is Approaching The Plains

A Storm Hits The West Coast & Is Approaching The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

Los Angeles is getting some heavy rain today, and this is a good sign for their winter. It is a functional storm that is hitting them now.  If it was going to be an extremely dry winter out there, they would not be getting hit by a storm of this strength.  Here are the impacts and forecast from the NWS in Oxnard, CA:

Screen Shot 2018-11-29 at 7.50.19 AM

This storm heading into California is centered north of San Francisco this morning, and the second system is organizing way offshore.  These two systems are also going to have impacts on other parts of the United States including the KC region:

Screen Shot 2018-11-29 at 7.52.56 AM

3This first storm is going to rip out into the plains on Friday into early Saturday, with the second one coming  into the west coast.  There is a split flow over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  A northern stream is located over the northern territories of Canada, if you look closely. And, the southern stream is quite active with our storm systems cycling through this southern branch.  The first system will be approaching the plains Friday and spinning into an upper level low over northern Kansas and Nebraska, possibly Iowa and Missouri Friday night and Saturday.  What happens with the strength and development of this first storm will have impacts on how the second storm affects our region.  The models have all had some strength of snowfall in our region even in KC by Sunday night or Monday with amounts varying from a few flakes on some models to 8″ of snow on others (Canadian Model).  Now, the solutions should come more in line today, so I am waiting on seeing how these trend as confidence is quite low for our area at the moment.

Let’s concentrate on this first storm:

2

A strong surface low will be moving out into the plains on Saturday morning.  Imagine this storm in the spring;  there would be a significant severe weather risk.  Oh, wait a second, take a look at this December risk on the day 2 outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center):

day2otlk_0700

Dew points will be surging north.  And, I am talking high dew points, lots of moisture for this time of the year:

1

This GFS model dew point projection shows 50°+ dew points may make it as far north as KC early Saturday morning. That would push temperatures up into the 50s later tomorrow night, and there is a chance of thunderstorms near Kansas City as well.

A lot to discuss today in this rather strange and interesting weather pattern.  Remember, every LRC is unique, and we are experiencing a weather pattern that has never happened before. Now, let’s see how this all lines up.

Sporting KC has a big playoff game out at Children’s Mercy Park tonight.  Go Sporting KC!  Have a great day everyone, and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Sunny, my dog, is shaking her head, and I am taking her to the vet this morning, so I will check in soon.

Gary

2018-12-01T08:29:26+00:00November 29th, 2018|General|48 Comments

48 Comments

  1. Jeffg November 29, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

    First, excited to see all the chances of snow coming up. It will also be interesting to see which models are the most accurate as we move through the winter season.

  2. BSmike November 29, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    Boom

    • Gary November 29, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

      I think you came in second today. How did you let this happen as the entire world is now a bit different today? LOL!

      • BSmike November 29, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

        Dang it!! HAHAHA. I can except defeat sometimes but not Saturday morning 😉

      • Heat Miser November 29, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

        LOL

  3. NoBeachHere November 29, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    An active spring look very possible with this LRC

    Snow, better get in shape cause they all look like heavy, wet snows this winter.

  4. morganu November 29, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

    So the GFS and EURO vs the GEM and ICON. I know which group I’m going with. Storm on Saturday is by far the more dominant feature.

  5. MikeL November 29, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    The 12z ICON didn’t develop the second wave for Monday. Need to see what happens to the first storm to know anything for sure.

  6. BSmike November 29, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    so GEM and EURO you say?

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    Second Monday storm is a goner, gets sucked into the flow and “he gone”. I want a want a warm up, need a winter fishing day soon

    • Stl78(winon,mn) November 29, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

      Man up real. U can fish in any temps!!! Lol

      • REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

        They only bite when it’s warmed up though!
        I don’t have walleye and perch that stay active in slush lol

        • Stl78(winon,mn) November 29, 2018 at 6:22 pm - Reply

          Come on up to MN..I’ll take u ice fishing. Shanty’s are setting up for the season now!

  8. Clint November 29, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

    Looks like the second wave is going to get ate by the first wave. Gary, does this first wave have a trick up its sleeve?

  9. Snow Miser November 29, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Eleventh!!!

    • Heat Miser November 29, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Congrats!

  10. Mr. Pete November 29, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply

    Reporting in. I had a solid icy glaze on my windshield this AM. Had to bust out the scraper. Didn’t have this issue yesterday.

  11. snowflakeparkville November 29, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    Models status for Monday:

    Euro: 1 inch
    GFS: dusting
    FV3: slightly more generous dusting
    Canadian: 1-2 inches? Hard to tell.

    A few more runs before NAM

    • Snow Miser November 29, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

      NAM now showing about an inch.

  12. f00dl3 November 29, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    Looks like this northern plains trough is behaving a lot like the last time around but with a warm twist to it.

  13. f00dl3 November 29, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

    CMC does show my Arctic outbreak on schedule for Dec 8-9th though.

  14. Rodney November 29, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

    I like what I’m seeing just over a week from now Dec 7-9, cold air in place & wintery precipitation. With a cold weather pattern setting up the first few weeks in December could be exciting.

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

    • Clint November 29, 2018 at 5:43 pm - Reply

      Yes sir look for a big one next Friday and Saturday.

  15. A1hoops November 29, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

    Euro is showing 2-4 inches for next week in the metro

    • Heat Miser November 29, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

      Bring it on! 😉

  16. MaryinShawnee November 29, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply
    • Richard November 29, 2018 at 4:42 pm - Reply

      10 days away 😆

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

      What system produces that?
      After this wekend storm GFS is bone dry until late next weekend, then a bigger snow shows up but I’m not trusting that just yet.

  17. Rodney November 29, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    Gary: You had mentioned in your winter forecast that some places could see as little as 15 inches but is much is 37 inches on the high end and that you expected there to maybe be some higher totals just to the south east of Kansas City. So far in November there’s been a big winter storm hit St. Louis and there’s been one that hit KC & northern Missouri and Central Missouri has been squeezed in between on both systems seeing lighter amounts . Do you feel the pattern is setting to where there could be some more widespread big snows that would impact a larger area of the state? When you said south east of Kansas City do you think we could see higher snow totals would that expand along a line over into portions of central MO just south of I-70 in your opinion? If you were going to make a snowfall prediction for say the Columbia & Jefferson City area would you say that would be pretty close to what you were forecasting for Kansas City or maybe slightly more or less? Thanks for your time, as always I love reading your blogs, it’s the first thing I read on my morning work break.

    Rodney (Ashland, MO)

    • Adam November 29, 2018 at 4:56 pm - Reply

      I imagine as much colder air is forced south and east some of these storms will target you guys. I could be totally wrong though, just going off what I’ve seen with cold air in the past.

      PS I know I’m not Gary, just trying to give you some hope. Lol

      • f00dl3 November 29, 2018 at 7:17 pm - Reply

        Let’s see what happens DEC 14-21 with the 7 day 3 wave setup!

      • Rodney November 29, 2018 at 11:31 pm - Reply

        Thanks Adam I appreciate it. I’m sure I’ll see above average snow in Ashland & maybe a couple of 6”+ winter storm warning criteria events. We are way over due for a big snow it’s been several years for us.

    • Gary November 29, 2018 at 7:58 pm - Reply

      Since we had a big storm hit St. Louis, and just a few weeks later KC got hit is a good sign for Jefferson City and Columbia. There is a 15 day stretch coming up in the second half of December which will be a test.

      Gary

      • Rodney November 29, 2018 at 11:32 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary, fingers crossed for a big snow

  18. f00dl3 November 29, 2018 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    Look what GFS is showing DEC 14… it’s catching on.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112918/gfs_z500a_us_52.png

  19. Adam November 29, 2018 at 4:57 pm - Reply

    Going to be a loooong winter. Need to clean up the hiking boots so I can wear them to work.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 29, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

      It’s still fall bro! It’s depressing I know, but maybe last half of winter will act more like spring since last half of fall decided to be winter?

      • thetophat November 29, 2018 at 7:43 pm - Reply

        1991-92 it happened. I lean toward this especially given we had three consecutive Sunday snows last April. Would be beyond extreme to see two consecutive snowy Aprils.

        That being said watch out especially in the mid-south next spring. USA is way overdue for an active severe weather/tornado season.

        • snowflakeparkville November 30, 2018 at 6:12 am - Reply

          Not that extreme. Measurable snow in April in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997. 1995 had a trace.

          (amounts: 2.8 0.6 2.6 trace 1.0 1.3)

  20. Bsmike November 29, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

    Food I don’t know what I’m looking at there except maybe a low forming with that dip.

  21. f00dl3 November 29, 2018 at 7:12 pm - Reply

    Rocky Trough

  22. Richard November 29, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

    If memory serves, I think in Feb of 2013 we had back to back big snowstorms.
    Anyone know what we had in the way of snow before that, from Nov-Jan, and how much total snowfall for 2012-13 ?

    • snowflakeparkville November 29, 2018 at 9:23 pm - Reply

      2012-2013

      Oct: 0
      Nov: trace
      Dec: 3.7
      Jan: 1.0
      Feb: 20.5 (woah)
      Mar: 6.1
      Apr: trace
      May: 0.5

      • Richard November 30, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

        Thanks snowflake ! Wow!
        Over 31″ total ! With nearly 27 Feb-March
        That had to be a tough LRC.

  23. Urbanity November 30, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    I think we have to admit that the early October system was an anomaly, so take it out of the equation and look at the events since then and where does that leave us? I think this winter is a perfect scenario to see the impact of the LRC, because by mid winter we’ll have a mod-strong El Nino, and the weather impacts should tell us if it has a bigger piece of the puzzle than the LRC allows.

  24. TC November 30, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    How’s the setup looking now for Dec 7-9th? Tonight through Monday looks like mostly rain with some frozen stuff, but not much. Hoping for some more of the white stuff next weekend.

    • Richard November 30, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

      There is a new blog up

      • TC November 30, 2018 at 1:16 pm - Reply

        Thanks

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