The Weather Team Winter Predictions

/The Weather Team Winter Predictions

The Weather Team Winter Predictions

Good morning bloggers,

It has been one of the coldest Novembers on record, and we are currently 8.4 degrees below average this month.  Later this week we will go into more detail of what is happening with this cycling pattern according to the LRC.  Last night, our weather special aired on 41Action News. Here is the link to the special:  Winter Weather Special and here are the snowfall totals forecast from our weather team.  Remember, we taped the show two weeks ago before this latest big storm, the second largest November storm ever recorded in KC, happened:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine later. Light winds with a high of 38°
  • Tonight:  Dense fog developing in spots with light winds.  Low:  29°
  • Thursday:  Possibly some dense fog, then cloudy.  High:  37°
  • Friday:  Increasing chance of rain.  High: 42°

We are tracking two storm systems between Friday and Monday. Let’s go through them.

THURSDAY MORNING: We will see some snow melt today, which will throw moisture into the air. Then, tonight there will be light winds and this could lead to fog. If high clouds move in tonight, then this will interrupt the fog forming process as a clear sky will lead to maximum cooling and condensing. Whether the fog is thick or not, there will be black ice as water from melting today will refreeze tonight.  So, use caution.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON: If the fog is not too thick, then there may be some peeks of sun before thicker low clouds enter from the south. Drizzle is possible to the south and a few sprinkles/ice pellets are possible to the north as weak disturbances race by.

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FRIDAY: This looks like a cloudy and breezy day along with a chance of drizzle. Lows will be around 32°, so some new black ice is possible. Highs will rise to near 40° as our first storm system approaches.

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FRIDAY NIGHT: A round of moderate to heavy rain is likely, possibly a thunderstorm, with amounts .25″ to 1″. Temperatures will be in the 40s and this will wash off the salt and chemicals. It will also be interesting to see it fall on top of the snow.  There will still be plenty of snow left by Friday night, especially in locations that don’t see sunlight.

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SATURDAY: The first storm will track to the north and the heavier rain will end early in the morning. We may see lingering showers and drizzle all day on the back side with temperatures 35°-40°.  A snowstorm is likely for Nebraska and Iowa. The first storm will play a role in the fate of the second storm.  If the first one becomes to big, it will absorb the second one and we will not have much on Monday from storm system #2.  If the first storm moves along and stays separate from the second one, then Monday will be quite interesting.

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Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary and Jeff

2018-11-29T09:14:33+00:00November 28th, 2018|General|67 Comments

67 Comments

  1. Clint November 28, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    First!

  2. Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    Since we already have almost 7 inches and the forecast was made 2 weeks ago, would the 26″ forecast already potentially be on the low side?

    • Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

      Sorry, I should have said almost 8 inches.

  3. BIG PAPA POOF November 28, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    I’m just now recovering from the fact that last storm didn’t go “POOF”

    Hopefully my POOF powers work on the next one.

    • Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

      Maybe you should team up with snowhater.

  4. Michael Casteel November 28, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

    Gary,
    My wife and I enjoyed the Weather special last night. Do you think all you guys would have adjusted your snow totals if the special was done after the Blizzard of 2018? Just curious. Have a great Hump Day Bloggers!
    Michael

  5. snowflakeparkville November 28, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    I’m cautiously optimistic for this winter.

    That’s something I haven’t said in a while.

  6. NoBeachHere November 28, 2018 at 9:45 am - Reply

    How about the possibility KC winter season is bookended by blizzards?🤔

  7. Urbanity November 28, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    This weekend storm is trending in the wrong direction for snowfall in Kansas. Starting to see models agree on a low-pressure center over northern Iowa stalling then getting picked up by a southern low that doesn’t have moisture to work with here in the plains.
    Long range models definitely conflicted on temperature profiles heading into mid December. I would imagine the emerging El Niño is affecting the models.

  8. Clint November 28, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

    GFS has a nice snow Monday night

  9. Psychotic Aardvark November 28, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    The NAM has the low this weekend just south of KC with possible snow on the backside. Just one model.

    • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

      Your name is hilarious, by that way 😉

      • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

        “by the way”

  10. JimT November 28, 2018 at 10:24 am - Reply

    Gary,
    I learned a lot from your weather special, winter has been and looks to continue to be very active. Is it to early or do u have any possible predictions on snow totals Monday?

    • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

      I don’t think he does snowfall amount predictions five days out…not really doable.

    • Numb3rsGuy November 28, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

      I found this official snowfall forecast on Twitter. I can probably be used for the rest of the season:

      https://twitter.com/aaronklemz/status/834179265289662464

      • Mike Holm November 28, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

        That’s hilarious

      • Richard November 28, 2018 at 6:52 pm - Reply

        That was a Leavenworth County post.
        On facebook 😁

    • Gary November 28, 2018 at 3:35 pm - Reply

      It’s too early. The models are still trending into a different solution. Where will the upper low form, and then track. I will go deeply into it in tomorrows blog. I am so glad you enjoyed the weather special. It is one of my all time favorites.

      Gary

  11. Sheryl November 28, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

    Just curious, are we ever going to see any warm stretches with this year’s cycle because I’m not see (or feeling) it. It’s going to be a long, cold, snowy winter and I need a little hope that we will have a few days each cycle that would be normal or above normal in temperatures.

  12. Terry November 28, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Storm system # 2 If the first storm moves along and stays ( separate) from the second one then Monday will be quite interesting. Gary what do you mean by Separate?

    • Dustin TheWind November 28, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

      Maybe this will help.

      GFS model has the storms separated, with snow in our area on Monday.
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112812&fh=126

      Euro has the storm combined, meaning the first storm sucks in the second one. Our chance is Sunday, and minimal at best.
      https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20181202-2100z.html

      • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

        Thanks, that’s very helpful 😉

      • A1hoops November 28, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

        im surprised no one has mentioned what this weekend storm is related to in the previous cycle. Precip chances Friday through Monday…jet stream diving down across the rockies…. hmmmmm

        • Three7s November 28, 2018 at 1:45 pm - Reply

          If that was mentioned, it would give away the cycle length, which I’ve been told is a no no.

        • f00dl3 November 28, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

          Without the cutoff low the jet stream has really sped features up. Part 1 of 2, NC US trough, digging a bit different. Rockies are going to be a LRC hotspot this year which is a very good thing because that will give us a lot of good storm tracks, even without 4 corners storms.

  13. Terry November 28, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

    Thxs and ok

  14. Clint November 28, 2018 at 12:20 pm - Reply

    I know this is looking a long ways ahead, but this weekends set up could be nasty come severe weather season.

  15. Mike Holm November 28, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    I picked this coming Monday for the snowflake contest, obviously way off. That’s based on what happened XX days ago at the beginning of the LRC.

  16. JoeK November 28, 2018 at 12:56 pm - Reply

    Hello mr. collins

  17. Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 4:11 pm - Reply
    • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

      You have the power icicle head! Make it happen!

    • Adam November 28, 2018 at 5:27 pm - Reply

      Can you imagine what that would do to this city? We wouldn’t leave our homes for weeks.

    • Richard November 28, 2018 at 6:58 pm - Reply

      We would not be able to handle that much snow. (The city)
      It would bury us. Literally.
      People would not be able to go to work. Schools would not be in session until summer.
      Can you imagine how it would cripple the metro ?

      • Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 7:16 pm - Reply

        That’s what would be fun about it. 😀

        • Richard November 28, 2018 at 7:30 pm - Reply

          Not fun if it crippled your workplace and your livlihood/income.
          Not to be a wet blanket. I am retired.
          But there are plenty of folks who live paycheck to paycheck.
          So, this is much snow is not anything that would to happen here.
          But natural disasters create a real hardship.
          You need to go to Tahoe like Gary did last winter 😁

          • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:34 pm - Reply

            Severe weather will always be bad for some people. Doesn’t make the rest of us not enjoy it. We don’t control the weather, so it will happen weather we want it to or not. Some will love it, some will hate it.

            • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:35 pm - Reply

              lol…I spelled whether as weather..how appropriate

    • f00dl3 November 28, 2018 at 7:46 pm - Reply

      Supposedly in the 80s we had a winter to that extent at least in KC north.

      • thetophat November 28, 2018 at 8:32 pm - Reply

        As a native northlander the only winter in that decade I remember being all that severe was 1981-82 particularly January 1982 when we had an intense storm that dumped a good foot of snow where I lived. The worst cold came in two historic Decembers: 1983 and 1989. 89 had the most severe cold spell in KC history right before Christmas while 83 seemed to last all month.

        There were a few noteworthy single snows probably the one that stands out the most in my memory was December 1987.

        • Gathering Storm November 28, 2018 at 9:38 pm - Reply

          Yep, Dec. 1983 was very bad. I’d moved away by ’89, but I came back 🙂 I remember livestock dying due to the cold in ’83. Hottest is easy…summer 1980.

          • thetophat November 29, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

            Followed in short order by 1988. The hottest couple of weeks I remember, though, was near Labor Day weekend 1984.

  18. KC BBQ November 28, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

    Hi guys, I’m a novice KC weather enthusiast! love the blog – great info and personalities. Happy to be apart of it. How are the models for Sunday/ Monday looking now ?

    • Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 7:17 pm - Reply
      • KC BBQ November 28, 2018 at 8:03 pm - Reply

        Thanks! What do you snowbuffs think the likelihood is that we get another meaningful snow out of this weekend’s event(s)?

        • Supercell November 28, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

          The snow would be Monday if it happens. Look at hours 114 and 120 on GFS. Nice snow for KC if it verifies.

  19. thetophat November 28, 2018 at 8:35 pm - Reply

    My big question now that the month is about to end is: is this the coldest November in KC history? It seems even colder (definitely much, much snowier) than 2000 or 2008, the most recent cold ones I remember.

  20. Snow Miser November 28, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

    On Sunday I wondered if I should put my garbage out, since Monday was garbage day.

    As of today, me and my neighbors’ garbage still hasn’t been picked up.

    • Heat Miser November 28, 2018 at 10:37 pm - Reply

      They need to get their butts in gear…the storm was four days ago as of tomorrow

    • Richard November 28, 2018 at 10:12 pm - Reply

      That link says Thursday ?

      • Clint November 28, 2018 at 10:15 pm - Reply

        I just ran it all the way through but the snow is Monday.

    • Richard November 28, 2018 at 10:17 pm - Reply

      Sorry. I needed to click on the arrow.
      Yeah. Mon-Tues looks like 5 inches if it holds true.
      Hang on for another model ride ! 😁

  21. morganu November 28, 2018 at 10:25 pm - Reply

    Check out the Canadian. Always good to have the Canadian and ICON on your side.

  22. Mike (OP) November 29, 2018 at 5:53 am - Reply

    It looks like the weekend of the December 7-9 could be fun. According to the EURO

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20181209-0000z.html

  23. snowflakeparkville November 29, 2018 at 7:34 am - Reply

    Looks like another round of modelitis this weekend!

  24. BSmike November 29, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    GFS has nothing basically, Fridays storm stretches Sunday/Monday out to nothing! Dang it!!!!

    • Clint November 29, 2018 at 8:25 am - Reply

      Your right but the GFS has been nothing short of terrible this year! (both of them)

      • snowflakeparkville November 29, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

        FV3 was the first to pick up on the idea of October snow though. People talked about how it was ridiculous and had a cold bias, and then it happened

  25. Johnny November 29, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    Gfs sucks

  26. BSmike November 29, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    I hope your right Clint. What has been the most reliable? I can never get the euro to show snow totals on tropical tidbits!!

  27. Austin Braddock November 29, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

    I honestly don’t think that will verify

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