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Good morning bloggers,

It is rather dangerous and slick out there for a few more hours. The sun will begin working on melting some of the ice sheet that developed on many roads around Kansas City. The rain and snow that melted as the snow began ended up creating ice sheets in most areas, so it is quite dangerous, very slick out there this morning.  There have been many crashes, and some of the more dangerous spots may be around driveways and sidewalks where slipping is possible if you are not really careful.  So, provide yourself with a lot of extra time this morning. We have hundreds of closings after our record snowfall yesterday.

IMG_5940

The 5.8″ that fell at KCI Airport is the second largest November snowstorm ever recorded (9.0″ in 1923), making this the second snowiest November ever, and we have now exceeded all of last years total, all of two years ago total, and all of three years ago total for the entire winter snow season (October-April).  Wow!  I measured 5.5″ on the Plaza before the snow was over, so we likely had close to 6″ of snow.  Blue Springs and Lee’s Summit got into a heavier band just east of KSHB and we have reports of 8.1″ in these cities.  Overland Park had 4.1″, and other amounts reached 10″ near Maryville and Stewartsville up north.  Wow again!

f5weather-9

So, what is next? This is the storm that has my attention for next weekend. Some of the models have heavy snow near or just north of KC Saturday into Sunday morning. This is the European Model that was the most consistent with yesterdays storm, and below you can see that it ends as snow on Sunday morning.  Well, it is still five days away, so hang on, here we go again, and it is still only November!

f5weather-10

Be careful out there this morning.  As I said, the sun will work on the roads soon.  Conditions will improve gradually.  Have a great day.

Gary

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RichardJoeKBSmikeBill in LawrenceGary Recent comment authors
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BSmike
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BSmike

next weeks storm has trended south on GFS

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Good late evening, or is that early morning bloggers. Yes Pete there was a wee bit of sleet/frozen ice that froze beneath the snow. I had the same and we are ~2 to 3 miles apart. I will not get into it here, at this moment, but the little ice age is not akin to global warming today. If you do not understand the chemistry and physics behind the formation of CO2, what happens with it and where it goes we are lost/doomed as a society. Nothing worse than non-scientists who think they know about global warming. If you have… Read more »

thetophat
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thetophat

Oh brother………….

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Rockdoc: Interesting….so I should just follow blindly what you say or be educated in the facts as you perceive them. You sound like a priest from the Middle Ages. I don’t think so…there is too much politics and money now in climate science to trust anyone. Not sure why we think that science cannot be corrupted by money and power. So if an article says scientists say x, y and z me as just a little peon history teacher should just blindly follow along….awesome….not only does that sound like the Middle Ages but it also sounds like Mao, Stalin, and… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Bill, Excellent post as usual and I agree, the science behind global warming has become tainted by greed and arrogance. It is no longer about science and is now about which side of the spectrum your loyalties fall. Those who believe without question, view any skepticism as ignorance. Personally, I have spoken with a number of scientists that do not align with the popular theory, but remain silent out of necessity. Too much data manipulation, too many inaccurate predictions and definitely, too much money involved to trust any one source. Anybody that believes in science should know that there are… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Wow

Austin Braddock
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Austin Braddock

Gary, what’s your email again?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

This morning when I cleaned off my car I had a solid layer of ice under the snow to scrape off. There must have been some decent ice before the snow started. I had not noticed until then.

Richard
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Richard

Freezing fog tonight ?
Black ice by morning on pavement that has been cleared ?
Need to venture out tomorrow for Dr appt.

Richard
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Richard

Gary at 8:18 explains why comments will be held up/moderated.

39th&Blue
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39th&Blue

Hi, Gary. What kind of dog is Sunny and is she mixed with anything? You just showed her on tv and she looks a lot like our dog that passed two weekends ago, especially her happy face. I’ve been a fan of yours since before Sunny, and I know she brings you great joy and happiness. I didn’t understand fully how you must have felt when you lost Stormy and Breezy, but I know now, and it sucks so bad.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Measured 6.5 inches at College/Lone Elm in Olathe. Not gonna even bother to look at the models till Friday for next weeks system(s). Gonna hibernate cause blizzards are mentally draining for sure.

LSDoc
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LSDoc

IMHO, models are just an indication of what a storm CAN do – not what it WILL do. In storms like this, a 30-50 mile deviation either way is possible, so the fact that forecasters can get it that close is amazing. Sure, the snow amounts were likely overdone, but the winds were pretty spot on! Have a good evening fellow bloggers (and get rid of the bloggers that spew profanities on here. You know who you they are. They mention a certain jacket that Gary has. TOTALLY inappropriate on this blog!)

Richard
Guest
Richard

From Lenexa PD
“Please clean the gargantuan ice sheets from your vehicle before it becomes a missile to the car behind you on the road.”

Adam
Guest
Adam

I saw some idiot driving fully encased with just some hand swipes on the windshield so he could peer out of it. In New York and states that get real snow you can get a serious fine for that.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I tried to drive some stakes into the ground for our Xmas decorations and I def waited too long. Ground up here is pretty well froze solid

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

YES! Looking forward to the cure that ails us… all week long…modelitis!

Roads are slick up here. I heard a vehicle slide into a parked car last night while walking the dog, and this morning the constant sounds of tires spinning of people stuck on the roads around me. I read on some FB boards about cars littering ditches along K-7. Even though there were street plows running last night there was a steady blanket of ice up here. People still drove slow and were unable to fully stop at red lights sliding into the intersection. Should get better today (obviously).

snowhater
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snowhater

well the aftermath of you snowlovers storm wrecks preople falling injuries slip and fall broken hips i hope you got your thrill may the rest of ythe year go poof poof poof and s heat mizer wekk shovel all your driveways

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

You do realize that we didn’t actually CAUSE the snow, right? It would have happened regardless of whether we, on this little ol’ blog, like snow.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Snowhater
Daylight hours are shorter.
Leaves are gone, trees are bare.
Grass is brown.
November has been COLD.
Christmas is coming !
We don’t want wrecks or people getting injured.
But we might as well have SNOW to brighten our days !

If you don’t like snow you are on the wrong blog. Go form a snowhaters blog.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

People get sunburned, but I still enjoy the sun. Rain causes accidents, slips, and falls, but I still enjoy the rain. Come on snowhater, wise up. LoL I will shovel your driveway though…if the price is right. 😉

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Actually, I should correct that…rain doesn’t “cause” accidents, its a contributing factor for those not adjusting appropriately to the changing conditions.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Why so angry? It’s not even winter yet.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Just to piss off snowhater, I hope we get 80 inches of snow this winter. And I hope he slips and falls on some ice and breaks his arm. Maybe that’ll be the last straw for him and he can move to Florida and stop being a moron here on this blog.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

ROFL…Snow Miser enough of this anti-snow behavior!

TC
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TC

What does tomorrow morning look like in terms of freezing fog or refreezing the roads?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Why is the CMC so good this year in picking up the pattern? Look at the 12z run. GFS doesn’t even have a clue what’s coming more than 7 days out this winter.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

One thing I learned (again for the millionth time) from this past storm is not to trust the models. On Friday, I threw in the towel on the storm because the NAM jogged north to agree with the GFS (old and new). The Euro had started trending north too. Only the ICON seemed to be consistent with its southern track. I assumed the GFS had gotten it right. So I literally stopped looking at all weather forecasts,including the models, by Friday afternoon and had no idea on Sunday that we were in a blizzard warning. When the snow started, I… Read more »

LSDoc
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LSDoc

Weatherdude,
IMO, models are just an indication of what a storm CAN do – not what it WILL do. In storms like this, a 30-mile deviation either way is possible, so the fact that forecasters can get it that close is amazing. Sure, the snow amounts were likely overdone, but the winds were pretty spot on! Have a good evening, my friend.

Clint
Guest
Clint

The CMC really wind that system up over Iowa, full cyclone.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

It has the generalization of things great. The exactness, not so much. But it had this Blizzard a whole week before the GFS. It had features of our LRC well before the GFS picked up on them. The double low southern Canada/Texas that brought us the chance of rain Black Friday – the snow in Iowa that was also something else earlier on it nailed it. Was terrible on where it ended up, but it showed the features.

Clint
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Clint

Nice. You have done a great job with this.

JoeK
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JoeK

Foodl3,

Ahhh….You found it! The CMC had this storm identified long before any other model did. The Euro may have caught on closer to the event, but the CMC picked up on it with high accuracy more than a week out. Good job/observation!

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

So far this season, based on somewhat unscientific measuring, we’ve had snowfalls of 2 inches (11.8), 3 inches (11.12) and 7 inches (11.25) in south OP near where I live. I think KCI is uncharacteristically on the low end for the metro thus far.

Adam
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Adam

I agree. I think the reporting site should be moved to the downtown airport location again. It’s almost in the middle of the city and would be a better representation.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So I don’t fully agree. I think the reason why we have so much fanaticism about Global Warming is because many reporting stations are located in urban heat islands. People who want us to all think Global Warming is a serious issue will bank on the natural properties of Concrete to cause Urban Heat Islands to skew temperatures globally. I think it’s a great thing that KC did what we did to kind of at least marginalize the urban heat island effect to our temperatures, and when looking historically you can better see that since when the station was moved… Read more »

Skylar
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Skylar

I’m sure you know most of this, but for anyone else it needs to be said. It’s important to recognize that the little ice age was only a regional cooling across Europe and North America. In fact, for the last 12k ish years we have been in an interglacial period of a series of ice ages that began around 3mya. The current interglacial peaked in warmth a few thousand years ago, and assuming a continuation of the pattern would be ending in a few thousand more. The beginning and ending of interglacials have historically had greater temperature variability which I… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

You copied that right out of your KU sociology textbook, written by far-left hypocrites. You posted, “However the urban heat island effect has absolutely been accounted for in climate models.” Prove it. Reference even one global warming study that is out there that specifically gives any indication that their data is adjusted to urban heat island temperatures. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but they are not entitled to their own facts. Don’t be lazy and tell everyone to look it up themselves. Produce something that proves your argument. Me? I can’t prove Bigfoot exists any more than I… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

In response to your reactionary tirade, here’s one of many examples of adjustments made for “heat islands”.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/02/urban-heat-islands-and-u-s-temperature-trends/

As shown in Figure 2 from our paper, there are significant differences in the warming rate of urban and rural stations in the raw (and TOBs-adjusted) data that are largely eliminated by homogenization, even when that homogenization is limited to using only rural stations (to avoid the possibility of ‘spreading’ the urban signal).

Adam
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Adam

Good points

Jack
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Jack

Are you sure you got 11.25 in O.P.??

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

That means November 25th. The parenthesis are the dates. 🙂

Jack
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Jack

I bet we finished with around 8-9 inches of snow here in Atchison, KS. Did any area get near a foot?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

I bet that 4 miles NW of Liberty got at least a foot. That’s where Mower Man Mikey lives. Constant vort max there.

BSmike
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BSmike

The drive in to Downtown was just horrible but I love the snow storms so I can handle it 10 to 15 more times this year!

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

How bad are the roads in downtown? I saw the highways were a mess this morning. Curious about streets around town since KCMO is notorious for bad plowing and salting. Hope they used beet juice since it has a lot lower freeze temperature vs regular salt. They’ll need it for overnight into tomorrow. Also sand on hills for traction.

Adam
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Adam

I’m downtown now, the roads are a sheet of ice. Areas getting sunlight are starting to melt though.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Thanks! Much appreciated. I couldn’t go in today since my car is in the “auto hospital”. They provided me with a loaner, but didn’t want to risk an accident. Glad I stayed home. That being said, the hospital bill was more than I was hoping for, but necessary.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Hasn’t slowed the buses down, down here though. I swear I’m going to get killed by one of those things one day down here.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

This coming weekend looks to be a rain event with the snow up in Nebraska-Iowa. The ULL and surface low are too far north to impact us. Here’s the 0z EURO for next Saturday.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20181201-1800z.html

Here’s a look at next Tuesday which looks to be a NM-TX storm.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20181204-1800z.html

For granted, these are 5 and 8 days out, so we’ll just have to see what happens. At least it gives us at least a 4 day respite from Modelitis 😊

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Should have said the following Tuesday, or December 4th for clarity.

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Had about 3” even on the driveway here in Kirksville, but there are drifts 6-12”. We may have gotten a bit more than 3, but hard to tell with all the drifts.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Driving tips for snowy interstate travel. When driving parking lot speed stay in far right lane. When driving a little faster use the middle lane. When driving faster than either of those two use the left lane. When driving like you have a rocket attached to your a$$ find a race track.

thetophat
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thetophat

Good advice especially for those young guys driving big trucks thinking they are bullet proof. All they do is put all of us on the roads in danger.

Adam
Guest
Adam

It seemed to be big trucks and luxury SUVs this morning. And then the far too scared, bad mix.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

It is quite beautiful outside today – cold but beautiful.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m hoping for a lot lighter winds if this next weekend storm verifies. My wife was on call for companies, hospitals and cities for one of the energy companies. She was in charge of notifying call centers and crews of outages. Had 87 in/outgoing calls from 2pm to 11pm last night. More overnight. Only able to sleep for a couple hours. I’m pretty sure she is mentally drained.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

I can agree with you there. My favorite snowstorm accompanies heavy heavy flakes at a consistent rate, gusts are okay but consistent winds of 30 MPH and gusts up to 55 MPH? I couldn’t even open my eyes fully on my way back from a walk yesterday in the middle of it. Another thing I love about snowstorms without tons of wind is the dead silence of the event itself. So quiet, yet so impactful.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Saturday is Dec 1. Wonder what December totals will end up. What an EPIC storm !! Not so much because of the snow totals, but the dynamics. Everything changed so fast ! And while we were in a blizzard, there was a tornado warning in St Louis !!! Hey Gary you need to ban that jerk Ronny. He posted again this morning, ( the last post on yesterdays blog) targeting you Gary. I am certain he has had many names on here. Ronny, Tony, ( and capital t dog) …..tried typing the name but it did not post. Now it… Read more »

lks2003
Guest
lks2003

GAAAARRY…..you sound like the one little girl on every playground that goes running to the teacher…..THEY’RE HURTING MY FEEWINGS!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…it just seeks attention, much like a little kid having a tantrum. Just ignore, don’t feed trolls. If Gary is able to ban its’ IP address, all the power to him. But otherwise, totally ignore.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Topeka officially has more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). Hopefully we will have lots more exciting storms to track this winter!

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

I believe this will come to fruition for us. Even though it is just models and I know just fine how finicky those can be, they are porducing systems that are accurate 6-5 days out. Mainly Euro and NAM honing in within that 3 day outlook. Either way, it’s been a good time, and yesterday was just so much fun on here. That was the first I’ve ever spent all day tracking with the bloggers here.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

The blog meltdowns can also be “fun” when storms miss us at the last minute. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen this winter… 🙂

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

Right? Modelitis hit hard on friday. Ive learned though if there’s anything I learned, that when models have lights shifts, or even major, if it was simple for it to do it once, it can and most likely will happen again. Im not as passionate or frustrated when we get missed. 😉

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That’s amazing

Bill
Guest
Bill

Can we please go back to fall?? I do not want to start seasonal depression in early December

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If next Tuesday’s storm can slow down a bit and eject with Thursday’s energy and this North Central US trough just digs deep into Texas, omg that will be huge as we will have a very strong deep low moving over a lodged Arctic airmass.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL for this weekend…deja vu!!!! :-O

lks2003
Guest
lks2003

shutup loser

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

I see recent models that storm showing for next weekend, strengthened near its core into a much stronger storm, bringing possibly 7-9 inches for its bullseye. Last night it looked like a large body widespread 2-4 inches w 4.5 to 5 in its core. See if we can get any southern trends or if temps will work w us. Looks to be too warm

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary – I do not believe next weekend’s storm is going to be a huge snow maker. Now next THU/FRI is a different story….. but this corresponds with a storm that came through when we were still on the very tail end of our only period of normal to above normal temperatures. That being said I thought yesterday would have a huge issue with rainfall cutting into snow totals, so maybe fortune favors the cold bias this winter?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

this weekends* – next weekend THU FRI I think we’ll get 3-6″ again. 🙂

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

do you think the earlier warm temps cut down in the totals? Im just not sure if it was actually heavy enough that what fell wouldve accumulated much anyways? Or could it have been that comma head taking the even further south trend through blue springs? I know they though that might’ve cut through the metro and given us those higher 8-10 inch totals.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the thing that cut down totals most if anything was the storm’s own dynamics. I mean it has to have the warm air inflow to churn like that so having that onset period being warmer while it probably cut down on totals by 1-2″ it was necessary for the storm to be as strong as it was for us. The only other way would be a further south track.

Vernon T. Taggert
Guest
Vernon T. Taggert

Gary and all you snow hounds out there, love you all, fun stuff, where is the best place to see snow fall totals for storms like this, city by city? Gotta be a website somewhere.

JShawnee
Guest
JShawnee
Vernon T. Taggert
Guest
Vernon T. Taggert

Thanks!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Here’s another one from the NWS in Topeka. Funny thing is, it was revised since it was issued this morning, and it isn’t very accurate anyway. The map shows a swath between Manhattan & Marysville got 4-6″ of snow, but in reality, we got only 0.875″. It snowed constantly for 7 hours, but the flakes were so tiny that they didn’t even activate my trail-cam, and that was the first time we’ve gotten snow without that happening. The county sent snowplows out yesterday, but as it sailed by here it had it’s blade up. Snow accumulations were obviously spotty, just… Read more »

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Overland Park 143rd/Nieman 5.5

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Wondering if you had some get blown away. I measured between 6.5 and 8 inches not far from you, at 151st and Antioch. I’m going with the lower end and calling it 7 inches.

Doug
Guest
Doug

I had 6.5″ near 143rd and Switzer.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

A bit cryptic here but, revolution

That can be a topic

Adam
Guest
Adam

What are we revolting against?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Not revolting

Revolution

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

For some dumb reason I decided to shovel instead of using my snow blower. A bit sore this morning 😡.
Measured 8 spots here in Liberty, low end 4.8 high end 7.8, a mix of concrete and turf measurements.
Awesome storm and I miss 82 degrees on the beach. 🏝