More Snow Before the Weekend is Over?

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Good Saturday bloggers,

The low this morning was 9°. Let’s put this into perspective. The record low was 19° and the average low is 37°. The average high is 56°. So, we are running close to 30° below average.

Now we turn our attention to the next chance of precipitation. A large, wet storm system will be forming in the southern Plains Sunday. As the storm is forming we may get in on a northern extension Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a trend towards our area seeing a period of snow, possibly starting as a mix with rain.

Let’s go through this changing forecast.

SATURDAY: It will be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 30s. A south wind of 10-20 mph will keep wind chills in the teens and 20s.

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING: It will be dry and not as cold with lows in the 20s to around 30°. However, a south wind of 10-20 mph will keep wind chills in the teens.

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SUNDAY NOON: The Chiefs kickoff at noon, and Sporting KC begins at 2 PM. Right now it looks dry for the Chiefs kickoff with temperatures rising to close to 40°.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: There is a data trend towards a mix of snow/rain or all snow to move in around 3 PM. Temperatures will be 35°-40°, so like the other day the roads will start off wet.

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SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT: The mix would quickly change to snow, peaking 7-10 PM. Two things to keep in mind.

1. Temperatures would likely be at or above freezing, so roads would be wet. Although, with surfaces a bit colder initially, there could be some slick spots after 4-5 PM. Lows Monday drop to 25°-30°, so if we have wet to damp roads, slick spots would be likely by Monday morning.

2. We are are at a 50-50 chance of this occurring as there is some data showing the precipitation well south. So, how far north will the precipitation shield travel? We will know more Sunday.

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Our snow chance is just the northern fringe of a huge and wet storm that will affect the southern USA Sunday-Monday and the east coast Tuesday. We will have a new cold blast Monday with clouds and wind chill values in the teens. So, again, how far north will the precipitation travel, before heading back south?

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Amarillo, TX has a chance to see 2″-5″ of snow and this is quite a story. It has been 634 days (February 14, 2017) since Amarillo received measurable snow!

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We have a chance to see a dusting to 1 ” on grassy surfaces. So, most likely the snowflake contest will continue through this next snow chance. Now, we have to watch this closely and we will know more Sunday.

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Have a great weekend and stay warm.

Jeff Penner

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f00dl3HATCHER FrankHeat MiserMr. PeteRyan Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

NAM is right now the only model holding onto this notion that the 2nd wave will track our way. Is it out in left field? Or have we seen this before with a trough digging in the Rockies and several pieces of energy shooting our way giving us a multi day precip event?

HATCHER Frank
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HATCHER Frank

Dumb question, when they talk about models being bullish, what does that mean. Showing alot or being stingy on amounts?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

We are all doomed…SNOWMAGEDON!!!!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Could be a deal where it snows a bunch tomorrow night and just doesn’t stick. Who knows.

Ryan
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Ryan

The NWS Weather Prediction center gives the metro >50% chance of 2+inches by wednesday.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow

Ryan
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Ryan

*Correction >40% for northern half of the metro and 50% for the southern part.

Craig
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Craig

Gerard didn’t even seem like he had bothered to check the 0z NAM before going on air…

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Gfs has been south all day but the nam has been trending for more snow all day which one will prevail?

A1hoops
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A1hoops

So is it 1 inch or 8 inches lol

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Yep

Craig
Guest
Craig

New GFS still holds it south on Monday.

Skylar
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Skylar

Considering this is the point when a winter storm warning would normally be issued, if the models had been consistently forecasting what the NAM just showed, I don’t envy the mets at all.

Tony
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Tony

Go buy bread, milk, and eggs now!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Okay, will do!!!!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

If the nam plans out the snowflake contest will be done tomorrow evening!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NAM whallops us. 6-8″ south of I70 w/ Kuchera. Wow!

A1hoops
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A1hoops

Before i get too excited what are the temps going to be tomorrow night? According to my app it’s going to be 38 at 8pm

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Hmmm wonder if the other models will trend that way too. How has the nam been this season?

Craig
Guest
Craig

It nailed last Thursday…right down to the heaviest band being SE of the metro.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Oh crap the NAM…

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

0z nam trending toward more snow

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The most recent forecast for this area (north of Manhattan) gives us a 60% chance of getting ~1″ of snow on Sunday through Sunday night. Then it becomes frigid again on Monday, with a high temperature of 28° and a low of 14°

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

There’s a beach where I’m at.
Currently 80
North wind at 15

Surprisingly, no snow in the forecast

Anonymous
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Anonymous

So the timeline for any snow wouldn’t be until late tomorrow night, overnight into Monday?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I’m visiting my father in Hamburg, New Jersey, and we’ve been getting these little snow squalls when the temperate is 41 degrees. It’s not even really all that cold outside. I’m pretty sure that’s the warmest I’ve ever seen snow in.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The average low temperature for Topeka from December 26th to February 1st is 20°, so if this recent cold blast becomes a trend, we should have a few shots of dipping to 10° below zero in that time period.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

I knew this storm was too big and wet to not give us anything! Hopefully we can get these temps to drop in the lower 30’s to end this contest!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Too cold to clean up leaves today!!!

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

At least the weather has been more exciting so far in this seasons lrc.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

12z nam looks a bit snowier for tomorrow. Sorry I’m having trouble posting a link if someone could post one please.