Anticipation Is Building: A 100% Chance Of Snow

Afternoon Update:

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Look at this large area of snow at around 1:30 PM.  How long has it been since we experienced anything like this? Now, we have some things to accomplish; 1) The ending of the snowflake contest on November 8th this year, and 2)  Getting three inches to accumulate to end an almost five year streak. The latter may be tough, as the first inch will melt and won’t count.  I still think we will end up with 1 to 3 inches on grassy surfaces, and 1″ or less on untreated pavement surfaces before this ends.  So, the snowflake contest is almost 100% certain to end this evening.  I am at work, just wanted to provide this update.  We will keep you updated on Facebook, twitter, and 41 Action News. I will try to update the blog later!

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a 100% chance of snow today!  Some spots may go over 2″ and approach 3 or 4 inches by midnight tonight.  Remember, it has now been almost five years since we had three inches of snow in one storm.  This streak most likely will continue after today, as it would have to fall at KCI Airport for that streak to continue.  We finally have some evidence of a bit more organization to this fast moving upper level storm today.

eta27hr_500_vrt

A few model runs have come in showing this main disturbance strengthening as it tracks across southern Kansas later today and tonight.  Do you know what PVA is?  PVA is Positive Vorticity Advection, and notice the colors around the X.  Vorticity is increasing from Kansas City into that X with a channel of PVA targeting our area later today and this evening. This is valid at 9 PM and between 6 PM and 9 PM is when we should get the most influence from this wave, and it may last all the way up until around midnight.  This is why the amounts have come up on some of the models again.  The European Model was the last model to come back into focus with snowfall, and the only reason that model had less, is that it has it near 41 degrees this afternoon.  The profile of the lower atmosphere is below freezing all the way up the morning. By this afternoon there will be a very thin layer of above 32° air near the surface.  The precipitation may start as rain, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts as mostly snow, unless it does surge to near 40.  The surface temperatures are something to monitor.

Snowfall Forecast:

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There is likely going to be a band of heavier amounts along the path of that X, the “Vort Max”.  Exactly where that location will be is still being monitored, seemingly targeting the south KC metro area. This could be in a different position, however, so let’s see if it begins showing up around 6 PM.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now-Noon:  Increasing clouds. It will stay dry.  High: 38°
  • Noon-3 PM:  Cloudy with rain, snow, or a mixture of precipitation developing and increasing from west to east.  It will be staying west of the state line until around 2 or 3 PM.  Temperatures in the middle to upper 30s
  • 3 PM-6 PM:  The mixture changes to snow and begins accumulating on grassy surfaces.  Temperatures dropping a few degrees but staying just above 32°. The roads will be wet and not slick yet, unless the snow begins coming down hard.
  • 6 PM-midnight:  Snow likely with a 1 to 2 inches likely. A few spots may get a bit more. Slick and hazardous conditions are possible as temperatures begin dropping to below freezing
  • Friday:  A few snow showers or graupel showers are possible.  Temperatures rising to a bit above freezing, then dropping Friday night into Saturday morning into the teens. Some slick spots are likely

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day.  Watch 41 Action News as we keep you updated.  The snowflake contest will likely end this evening.

Gary

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Tony
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Tony

Did the snowflake contest end?

Sarah Gregg
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Sarah Gregg

When is Gary doing his winter weather forecast?

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

The streak will end this year. When t warms up for a couple weeks people will freak out so be prepared snow lovers. This is the preseason of winter!

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

About 1 inch in Parkville. Stuck to everything except roads. Very beautiful.

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Snow drought continues!! <3" everywhere! Roads no sweat this morning. This probably kills the best autumn colors we've had in quite awhile but it was going to end soon anyway. Must confess it was kinda pretty this morning. Dont mind as much these low hassle events.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Got 4 inches in Warrensburg, most we have had in years!

Doug
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Doug

1.5″ near 143rd and Switzer.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

1.6” of snow here in Stewartsville, MO just east of St. Joe. That brings my season total to 3.1”.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Snow has reduced to flurries at this point. What a treat it has been to experience our first inch of snow on November 8th! Now everyone enjoy the winter wonderland out there tomorrow

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Some tree limbs starting to sag over here.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Thursday evening to you sir!! Guessing around 1.5 inches here between Lone Star Lake and Clinton Dam. Snowed here for most of the day. As was mentioned above, if it had been 3 degrees colder we would have 3 maybe 4 inches for sure. Absolutely gorgeous snow……can’t wait to walk with the sun coming up in the morning!!! This 7 day stretch will be interesting for sure when it comes back through in the two winter cycles. Enjoy the snow for those of you who like snow; if you don’t like snow we look to be close to… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Contrary to my doubts, an knch in spots on my deck in Lenexa now!

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

My daughter’s power in Waldo just went out. She said a transformer blew and that her trees are hanging on power lines with the weight of the snow on leaves that haven’t fallen yet…wonder if that will become a widespread problem in older neighborhoods tonight.

Kstater
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Kstater

2-3 inches in grassy areas and 5ish on cars and trees here in Manhattan.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Forecast spot on for exactly how this storm developed, accumulations and where the snow bands would be. Great job Gary!

Supercell
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Supercell

Over 2” now in south OP. 8:19pm

Emily
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Emily

Here in SE Berryton (1 mile north of Osage Co, 1 mile west of Douglas Co) I haven’t had a chance to take an official ruler measurement yet, but it’s safe to say that we definitely have over 2″ and may make it to 3″ before it stops completely.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

If it was just 3-4 degrees colder today this would have been a widespread 3-5 snowstorm. Can’t wait till it returns!

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

There is already something different about this winter than the previous two. For example, two early snow events in Oct and Nov. I think the snow drought will end in KC. It just looks that way to me right now.

Chris Sholl
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Chris Sholl

Measured 1 inch on our deck here in Raytown.

Melanie
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Melanie

I just measured an inch on top of my car in Eastern Shawnee!

Harold in Harrisonville
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Harold in Harrisonville

2.5 inches in harrisonville. Still coming down.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Yard is covered here in Prairie Village. Roads are fine which is good. I’m thinking that we may wind up with 1.5 inches total here.

George
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George

Had snow most of the day at my house however nothing really stuck. Minor accumulation on grass. Everything melted on contact. Total precip may be 1/2″- 1″ but nothing to write home about. 87th & Antioch

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Just starting to stick to driveways in Parkville.

Eric R. North Overland Park
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Eric R. North Overland Park

Been following Gary’s blogs since 2010. I’ve never understood why people come on here to be negative, or to try and downcast a weather event. We’ve known this system is going to be about an inch to possibly 3 inches in spots… enjoy it everyone. It’s early November and it’s snowing! I find it fascinating!

Ryan
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Ryan

Totally agree!

JC Joe
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JC Joe

I have four inches on the railing of my deck. About 7 miles south of Junction City.

Kurt
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Kurt

1.75 inches of snow just south of St Joseph, steady light snow that stuck to grass, cars, trees, metal and elevated surfaces and roads that have shade.

Might surpass the 2 inch October snow last month. At least we seem to get moisture from snow, take any precip we can get.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Did the snowflake contest end?

Jack
Guest
Jack

We have about 1.25-1.5 inches in Atchison, KS. I went around measuring on top of cars where the snow would of stuck quicker. I am guessing, being further north, the temps were cooler and the snow stuck faster.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Just crossed the 1” line on the ruler. South OP. Coming down at good clip.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Good chance that this will make yet another snowfall with 1″ or less. That’s already 2 this year. Let’s see if we top last year’s record of wanna-be snows that never happened. lol.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Both of these happened in Oct and Nov. We are lucky we even got snow this early. Past few years we’ve had Octobers and Novembers with 80+ degree temps. I think it’s 100% a good sign for this winter that we’ve already had TWO snow events.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Here in Lawrence its awesome…everything is white but the roads…its beautiful…and its only Nov 8th for crying out loud…what a fantastic snow bonus.

Paul
Guest
Paul

Why don’t you go to a daycare and tell the kids there is no Santa!

Jason
Guest
Jason

Wanna-be snows? Lord. Look at the big picture. Large area of snow lasted for hours IN EARLY NOVEMBER. Had at least 2” south of Lawrence

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Still a dusting, even on elevated surfaces 5 hours into the event. Cold air is cutting off the precip fast from the northwest, and shield is diminishing in intensity. It’s going to be a real race against time to get 1″.

Phillip
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Phillip

Radar isn’t looking great tbh

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Just measured 2 7/8″ of accumulation. It is a wet snow, but it hasn’t turned to freezing rain as it has north of here. The airport at Marysville has been reporting rain since 2 PM and the air temperature hasn’t gone above 30° today.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Measured 3.5″ a few minutes ago. The snow coming down is lighter now, but the forecast says it will continue until 9 PM and we might get an additional inch.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Didn’t you also get 2″ during that October snow? Seeing a trend here with this LRC — N MO gets the accumulating snow while KC metro sees about 1/10th of what your area gets.

Wonder if this will be a trend all winter?

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Kansas City has never had more than 2” during the first half of November. If you’re going to decide the winter based on two very early winter events, including one that’s only half over, you might as well throw a dice.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yes, we got 2″ of snow on October 15th.
We haven’t had a snow like this since January 11th when we got 4″.

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Can someone explain the circle of ice showing up on radar around Marysville? Snow starting to stick here. Looks very pretty. This might be a fun winter.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Appears to be dry slotting, it’s eroding from the east to the west and steasily decreasing. If this continues we won’t even get an 1″ let alone 3

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The storm is doing exactly what was expected. Did it kick out too fast though? Did the fashion in which it kicked out fast, snow started early, means snow will end earlier, and the window for accumulations is smaller due to the fact that the time it will be snowing with sub-freezing temperatures is minimized further.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Look at the glorious snow coming down!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

starting to whiten up the grass and trees here in St. Joseph, started snowing about 2:55 pm

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Its starting to stick on trees and grass here by the Sports Complex, although I think more is still melting than sticking.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

3 hours of light to moderate snow here in Lenexa, maybe a trace on chairs and the deck. Got plenty of snow moving our way so even if it doesn’t stick until after 7 PM, I think it still looks as if we got an inch to two heading in.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Coming down pretty hard now here. Not sticking to anything.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Many of the trees still have some or most of their leaves…any possibility that the snow will stick to them once the temp drops below freezing causing possible tree limbs down and power outages? If so, not good…

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Just started getting very and I mean very light snow up here in Maryville. Doesn’t look like my Bobcats will be getting a workout anytime soon! Hope you guys down south get some snow! Go Chiefs!
Michael

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Down to 33 degrees with moderate snow beginning to accumulate on grassy surfaces trees and rooftops. South OP

Akiba Rubinstein
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Akiba Rubinstein

Looking at live radar, I don’t see how this is going to drop 3″ of snow. I think the streak continues.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Fortunately the heaviest of it seems to be staying south.

craig
Guest
craig

Check the Topeka radar and look near Emporia. Then note the direction it is moving.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Bigger flakes by Sports Complex, still not sticking on any surfaces.

Jason
Guest
Jason

SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Finally out of the dry slot. Very fine flakes here in Mc Louth. 35 degrees. Hope it is still snowing when temps drop.

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

The non-participating Tim from Lone Jack begrudgingly indicates it is beginning to stick on elevated surfaces

Jeanna Vossmer
Guest
Jeanna Vossmer

Just starting lightly in Lansing,Ks