The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

/The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

Afternoon update:

The data continues to come in with mixed signals on snowfall totals. I have not identified an organized wave, so I am not convinced of any higher totals.  There may be a thin band that has amounts more the 2″, and we will identify this location by morning.

So, I would like you to let me know what you think of this graphic, before I show it on the air at 6 PM or 6:30 tonight. Do you like it? Does it help any?

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Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

As anticipation builds for our first snowflakes of the season for many of us, there is a lot to discuss.  Oh, yes, we already had the earliest accumulation in Kansas City’s history when 0.2″ fell on October 14th.  I did sort of see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza that evening, but it was definitely more like slush droplets.  We likely will not have to wait much longer as snow is in our forecast.  The question is how much? Will the snowflake contest come to an end?  And, is there any chance of ending this historic Kansas City Snow Drought?

1

We are now just three months away from reaching five years in a row without even one 3″ snowstorm.  Some of the models have shown 3″ or more, while others have come in with less than an inch.  What I would like to see is more organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it is something I am looking for with each model run that goes by. And, I still don’t see that strong organized wave, which makes any significant snow accumulation less likely.  Since our last 3″ snowstorm on February 7, 2014, almost five years ago, there have been 40 different snowfalls and only around 32″ of snow, for an average per snow of 0.8″.  If this average is reached on Thursday night, then the snowflake contest would continue.

10

There has been a trend in the model for lower totals, and farther south.  Some of the models came in overnight with barely a dusting in some spots. This is what I showed last night.  On this map, that purple area indicated 1.5″ or higher.  The trend is down to lower numbers at the moment.  There are four to five more model runs to come in for a new trend to develop.

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Latest GFS Model:

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The latest GFS model shows anywhere from no snow accumulation to a grand total of just over an inch in spots.  Is it “here we go again”?  Why would this happen? Take a look:

2

So, the trend is down. There is little organization on the latest models of any upper level disturbance that would give me higher confidence.  The snow drought continues, and the lack of a 3″ snowstorm streak will likely continue. It is only early November. Let’s see how this pattern continues to set up.

Have a great day and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-11-08T07:10:16+00:00November 7th, 2018|General|115 Comments

115 Comments

  1. Fred November 7, 2018 at 7:07 am - Reply

    Remember just a few days ago when the FV3-GFS showed 18+ inches of snow? Again, it’s always fun to look at and to dream about, but the current KC trend (1,738 days) is for little to no snow…and with the trend, you have to wonder if we see anything significant on Thursday…

    • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

      Like I said, models can’t predict snowfall amounts with any accuracy at all more than 2 or 3 days out around KC. I think it might be useful to see that a storm is coming our way, but amount-wise…useless information that far out.

      • Fred November 7, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

        I know. You have said it 100 times and will say it 1000 more times this winter.

        AND I don’t disagree with you.

        But, part of the fun is to post maps with snow amounts and HOPE they verify, ten days from now.

        🙂

        • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

          I get that, believe me…I always want them to be true. Thing is, they never or almost never are. Everyone gets frustrated during the course of the season as a result. Logic says when something doesn’t work, over and over again…you stop doing that thing. Not saying we shouldn’t post the maps as a general guideline that a storm is or might be coming our way…but we should totally dismiss the actual amounts predicted that far out…no correlation to reality.

          • Troy November 7, 2018 at 2:50 pm - Reply

            I wonder if you went through the year and added up the rain and snow in 10 days out in a model what the total would be? My guess is it would be a record for either one as it seems we generally get much less rather than more than what models show.

  2. BSMike November 7, 2018 at 7:10 am - Reply

    OR THE REST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT MATTER smh!

  3. BIG PAPA POOF November 7, 2018 at 7:18 am - Reply

    THE POOF MAN STRIKES AGAIN

    • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      OH NO…IT’S BIG PAPA POOF!!!!! AUGGGHHH!!!! :-O

  4. lks2003 November 7, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    As Steven Tyler says everyday on the radio, “Dream On”

  5. Terry November 7, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

    Gary on your Graphic you show last night on the news about your snowfall amounts do your still think that a Possibillity still? I know you said we still have fortified more model runs to watch ?

  6. Stl78(winon,mn) November 7, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    Not sure why the doom n gloom. All models are in a general consensus and Gary’s dusting to 2 in as much as some may not like, is a solid prediction imo. This was never looking to b a big event. U guys had your earliest snowfall of the yr already and now the snowflake contest may very well end in Nov! These are all positive signs!! Above avg snowfall is likely imo this yr. Up here we are sitting at 30 with flurries. Received a dusting overnight. Have a great day!

    • Gary November 7, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

      It is best to temper expectations. The new NAM came in very wet, with 4″+ totals on the south side of the KC metro area. Just keep those expectations in the dusting to 2″ range for now. As I discussed in the blog; I am looking for a better organized wave. This mornings NAM model had slightly better organization to the wave. If there is truly organization to this upper level wave, then the chance of the snowflake contest ending and somewhat higher amounts is alive. I am not convinced at all yet.

      Gary

      • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

        It’s just fun to be talking about these possibilities in early November…it’s like a weather bonus.

    • BSMike November 7, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

      Roger that!!

  7. Urbanity November 7, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

    We will probably get more snow this year than last, but that’s not saying much. With a moderate to strong El Nino we may end up with more rain events than snow, however with cold fronts pouring in so early in the LRC that may not be the case.

    Thursday storm is a weak little blurb, a narrow band of 2-4″ could occur anywhere in central KS, but beyond that it looks very weak. I think if this storm exceeds expectations then that would indicate there is a better LRC on the way, if it does very little then we will see this continued Kansas wintertime trend of dryness. Not much else showing on the extended thru mid November.

    After the election results last night I will probably drop a few pounds, I’ve seem to have lost my appetite. How Kelly got in as governor is not comprehensible, how anyone can stand to listen to that woman is beyond me, plus her liberal taxation policies (for the record schools have to much power in the state and employ too many people, they have such a huge impact on elections). Granted Kobach was a stiff, but at least he was for strong borders and lower taxes and a limited government. What’s wrong with people of this state??

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 7, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      What was Kobach going to do about boarders anyway? He was as far way from any boarder as a state can be, he would have no power over any boarder policies outside of Kansas. You are dealing with the wrath of Kansas voters after they gave Brownback every opportunity to prove his tax experiment could be viable, it proved to be a failure but Kobach was ready to do it all over again. If they hadn’t wrecked our state so badly you would have easily won all seats last night, don’t be mad at the voters be mad at your party’s inability to govern when given the chance to do so.
      I support your weather assessment however, this is a nothing-Burger of a storm but if we can scratch some snow out of this it bodes well for this LRC.

      • Urbanity November 7, 2018 at 12:42 pm - Reply

        For the record Brownback was hit with low oil and ag prices, plus the Wichita media gave Nancy Pelosi’s nephew Dave Ward his own platform. The legislature could never cut costs and reduce the government because they were afraid of being singled out by the media. Some of these politicians like an idea but can’t stand behind it because they can’t take the heat from the left wing media.
        The Kansas legislature owed it to every small business to put a moratorium on the tax vote until it was given a 10 year chance to succeed. Success is not only measured in jobs, but also in a state’s ability to cut costs. Kansas couldn’t cut costs.
        The libs control the schools, the colleges, the media, the tech industry, Hollywood, and most government organizations. What you believe in is what all liberals believe in, and that is socialism. Be like Bernie, recognize it and admit it.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE November 7, 2018 at 1:25 pm - Reply

          I believe in top notch public schools, and affordable ( NOT FREE ) and accessible healthcare. That’s not socialism as you want to define it, its the way its always been in America. You are confusing economic systems with social security systems that actually enhance our Capitalistic system. I have not yet heard a single democrat running to replace capitalism

          • Urbanity November 7, 2018 at 2:17 pm - Reply

            C’mon Hume, you only see what you want to see. What you said is simply not true, that’s liberal vision. I brought it up, I’ll drop it. Back to weather, at least you agreed with my weather hypothesis. Have a good day.

    • Nate November 7, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      There are no people in the state, at least rural areas, that’s essentially the problem. All you have is “mushy” Republicans and Democrats in and around the larger cities

    • Snow Miser November 7, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

      Kansas is going to become a swing state. Get used to it. I saw the writing on the wall when I first visited here 3+ years ago and drove through Johnson County. It has all the makings of a typical suburban, slightly-to-the-left techie area. Add in liberal Lawrence and Topeka. Someday even Manhattan will become left-of-center. Maybe Wichita will remain centrist. That’s most of the state’s population there, and the result will be a swing state.

      • lks2003 November 7, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

        Actually JOCO has as many if not more (population) than Sedgwick.

      • KS Jones November 7, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

        The Manhattan Mercury posted election results for Riley County as follows:
        Governor and Lieutenant Governor
        Greg Orman (ind) . . . . . . . . 1,455 7.72
        Jeff Caldwell (Lib) . . . . . . . 333 1.77
        Laura Kelly (Dem). . . . . . . . 10,619 56.34
        Rick Kloos (ind) . . . . . . . . 144 .76
        Kris Kobach (Rep). . . . . . . . 6,272 33.28
        WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 25 .1
        …………
        Now back to the weather–The Euro model shows this wilderness area (25 miles north of Manhattan, where there are no people) is on the boundary between 1.4″ & 1.8″ of snow.

        • Snow Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

          Thanks. Looks like Manhattan is already a little bluer than I thought.

    • Troy November 7, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

      Politicians should learn to stay away from school funding in this state. Its taken several of them down. A lot of KS is just tiny towns where the school is the largest employer and if you threaten it you are done. We had a very popular (around here anyway) Rep from our town and he supported a consolidation bill and got beat out in the next election.

  8. Dave from Shawnee November 7, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Urbanity, there are plenty of other places to offer your political opinion, please refrain from doing so here as this blog is intended to be about the weather.

    • WeathermanKumke November 7, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      This. Also, to answe your question, she had the backing of every former republican and dem governor alive outside of Brownback and the people want Kansas to have an economical boom with weed legalization which is something that would have never gotten done under Kobach. I’m willing to pay higher taxes if it means our schools are properly funded and that weed is legalized here.

    • LYITC41 November 7, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      Thank you Dave! Urb go back under that rock please.

    • Jason November 7, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

      +1

    • Urbanity November 7, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

      I’m sorry Dave from Shawnee, I thought I was on Gary’s blog. When I see potheads (WK), complete idiots (Lyitc), and a guy with a number, I fully understand why Kelly got in. One more time, Less Govt vs More Govt, Alex I’ll take LESS for a lifetime please. You people hooked on OPM just need to find another country or relearn the history of the greatest nation on Earth.

      • LYITC41 November 7, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

        You are a f- ing knob. Just. GO. Away.

      • Snow Miser November 7, 2018 at 1:37 pm - Reply

        I hear government control is almost nonexistent in Somalia and Chad. You’re free to move there if you don’t like government.

  9. Stl78(winon,mn) November 7, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

    Anyone wanna talk about god? Only only kidding.

    • MY_JoCo November 7, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

      LOL!!!

  10. Anonymous November 7, 2018 at 9:12 am - Reply

    Come on wishcasters! Still time for a 6 incher!!

  11. BSMike November 7, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply
  12. Stl78(winon,mn) November 7, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

    Lol @ anonymous

  13. Mr. Pete November 7, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    I see on here all the time that the models (for snow) can’t be trusted until 1-2 days out. Yet here we are one day before the event and models can seem to get a handle on anything. I would argue that the models are just flat out worthless when it comes to predicting snow.

    • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

      I agree that even sometimes they aren’t accurate even a day or two out…but sometimes they are.

  14. snowflakeparkville November 7, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    the poof strikes again

    • snowflakeparkville November 7, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

      Models status:

      GFS: 1 inch
      FV3: 1 inch, but slightly more generous
      Canadian: 2 inches
      Euro: 1 inch
      NAM: 6 inches (what?)

      • Troy November 7, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

        Highest snow totals are from the high resolution models like the HRRR and WRF. They have more widespread accumulations than some of the global models.

        • Gary November 7, 2018 at 3:30 pm - Reply

          If the wave is stronger and more organized, even just slightly, then we have the potential for higher amounts. Right now, there has yet to be a model that shows any of this organization that I am talking about. If I see any evidence, then we will go up on our forecast. Right now, I am 100% confident it will snow. The chance of 1″ is likely closer to 60% near KC. The chance of 2″ is more like 30%, and the chance of more than 2″ is 20% at the moment. There is also a chance this is less organized and only a dusting falls in spots. If the vorticity, is stretched, thus less organized, then one two to three county wide area would get 3″ or more, while others near by get a dusting. I just would like to see better organization.

          • Gary November 7, 2018 at 4:22 pm - Reply

            Bloggers,

            Look at the graphic I just posted. What do you think? I added it into the blog. Do you like this way of showing the chance? Or do you not like it? Let us know. I may begin using it at 6 PM!

            • Troy November 7, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

              Makes sense to me. It might help people to understand the forecast amounts a little better. Thanks for the expanded information.

  15. BSMike November 7, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

    Who’s up for a WINTER STORM WARNING 🙂

    • Rockdoc November 7, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

      I’m waiting to see all of the snowplows out salting all of the streets, although the overpasses and bridges may need some 😉

      • Gary November 7, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

        By Friday morning it will be deep into the 20s. So, there will be a black ice problem, if there is enough moisture on that falls from the sky. Initially the roads should not be a problem, unless it snows very hard after the sun sets.

    • Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

      I’ll take one to go

  16. Paul November 7, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    Never Accurate Model??

  17. Garrett November 7, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

    Gary, corredct me if I’m wrong but even if we got an inch, or an inch and a half, whatever it is….the fact that these three systems seem to have produced, and were getting more than an inch worth of accumulaion this early in the season, with models still trending in favor of accumulations, this seems to be great progress compared to last year. All these people above are talking about poof, but like cmon its November 7th

    • Gary November 7, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

      There are good signs, and still some things I am still working on for the winter forecast coming out later next week. This storm is another test.

      • Frankie November 7, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

        The winter forecast comes out next week? Usually it comes out at the end of Nov!

  18. Rockdoc November 7, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

    Given the temperatures through midnight (34 to 37 degrees) I doubt much of what falls will stick. The snowflakes will likely be the big fat juicy flakes that will melt as soon as they hit the ground. I think it will be mostly melted, with perhaps just a dusting on the grass and shrubs. Several models are also showing the heat island effect around Kansas City.

    So this brings me to a question for Gary. When you decide to take the measurement for the snowflake contest do both the sidewalks/street and grassy areas need to be covered in snow, or if there is only snow on the grassy areas do you still take your measurements? In other words, when is an inch of snow a real inch of snow?

    • Gary November 7, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

      Grassy areas count for measuring snow too. So, there could be no accumulation on the pavement, and yet 2″ on the grass. This would count as 2″ of snow.

      Gary

  19. Terry November 7, 2018 at 9:59 am - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow the GFS 12z has gone up some on snow Tolals now 1 to 2 inches

    • LYITC41 November 7, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

      Forget it Terry

  20. Duh November 7, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

    It’s measured in the grassy area. Streets and sidewalks don’t count

  21. Anonymous November 7, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

    Is anybody paying atrention to the temps AT ALL? In the famous words of Ron Burgandy ” It’s science”

  22. Choppy November 7, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

    Is anybody paying atrention to the temps AT ALL? In the famous words of Ron Burgandy ” It’s science”

    • KS Jones November 7, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

      I sure am. The low temperature (out here beyond the settlements) is predicted to be 14° Friday night. I have three 12′ long, large diameter logs of bois d’arc (bow wood) aka Osage Orange, that I cut last January, and I’ll be turning them into firewood this afternoon.

  23. snowflakeparkville November 7, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

    please…shift…north…

  24. Terry November 7, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

    In WYCO The street crews have already started treating the bridges and overpasses.

    • lks2003 November 7, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

      No….practice runs, they are not going to treat the streets this early or waste material for a non-event.

      • Mark November 7, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

        I saw a truck on I-35 spraying something on the road, so unless it was water, they were treating the roads.

  25. BSMike November 7, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

    WWA inching closer http://www.pivotalweather.com/

  26. Anonymous November 7, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    Just curious, if the snowflake contest ends with this snow, will it be the earliest that the contest has ever ended?

    • Gary November 7, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

      Yes, I believe so. In 1996 when I worked for that other station, we were starting the snowflake contest that week, and then the October Surprise happened, and they wouldn’t let me do the second snow, LOL. So, we didn’t have a contest that year.

      Now, will it end tomorrow night? There is still no consistency, and this system is still a bit suspect. I still think a dusting is possible, and 2″ is possible, so a dusting to 2″ for now.

  27. Jack November 7, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    I think the 12z GFS is a good model and really shows the potential of this storm.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018110712&fh=6

    6 a.m Thursday morning you can clearly see the energy over western Colorado.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018110712&fh=36

    Here you can see our storm, somewhat lined up and organized over central-western Kansas, and this will paint a good band of snow of central Kansas. Just a little north and east of the “558” will get the heaviest snow.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110712&fh=48

    The bullseye being a 3-4 inch band to our southwest. The potential for this storm is a dusting-4 inches, but these higher totals look to be to our south and west. A dusting-2 inches is still the best prediction for the metro’s snow total.

    • Kai November 7, 2018 at 12:36 pm - Reply

      How far out on the forecast hour of the 12z GFS, in your opinion, should we stop for accuracy and good model data, on the potential for this storm?

  28. Urbanity November 7, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    FV3 pushing heaviest bands of snow to the South and East.

  29. LYITC41 November 7, 2018 at 1:19 pm - Reply

    Go away, you bother us.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 7, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

      Don’t hate on Keith. He doesn’t bother anybody, glad to see him back posting. I value his and all American’s opinions

  30. Dobber November 7, 2018 at 1:55 pm - Reply

    KSHB 41’s app says in writing that we have a chance of black ice Friday morning. When did this storm turn into an ice storm Gary?

    • Snow Miser November 7, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

      Please no, I need to go to the airport that morning! 🙁

    • Adam November 7, 2018 at 2:26 pm - Reply

      Slushy roads freezing when the twmp drops overnight would cause patches of black ice

      • Dobber November 7, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

        “ The term black ice in the United States is often incorrectly used to describe any type of ice that forms on roadways, even when standing water on roads turns to ice as the temperature falls below freezing. Correctly defined, black ice is formed on relatively dry roads, rendering it invisible to drivers. It occurs when in the textures present in all pavements very slightly below the top of the road surface contain water or moisture, thereby presenting a dry surface to tires until that water or moisture freezes and expands; drivers then find they are riding above the road surface on a honeycombed invisible sheet of ice.”

        No black ice is a more dangerous phenomenon than Icey roadways or frozen slush. I’m worried it’s being used to sensationalize or to grab the public’s attention on a snow storm.

    • Gary November 7, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

      I also saw your post on black ice, and you are mostly correct. When it is more spotty, it is more dangerous. So, when the snow/mixture ends Thursday night, and temperatures drop to near or below freezing. Some of those patches will form, and this “black ice” will be dangerous.

  31. Weatherjaded November 7, 2018 at 2:14 pm - Reply

    I believe they are referring to melting and refreezing as temps drop overnight Thursday. Precipitation will be over by then. But couldn’t rule out some untreated surfaces refreezing with temps around 20.

  32. BSMike November 7, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

    Anyone,
    What is the difference in these two? NAM 12km / NAM 32km………. Thanks

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 7, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

      The lower the numerical value, the higher the resolution. 3K is the highest resolution

      • BSMike November 7, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

        Thanks………… Humedude, you ready for Saturday morning? We gonna freeze out in the woods! I already have 10 point down with my bow! Hope we got snow on the ground for opening morning

        • REAL HUMEDUDE November 7, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

          Been ready since last year lol
          I’m ready for the cold, I hunted last Dec in the alternative season when it was -3F one evening when we had a high of like 2F in late Dec. That was so cold my little buddy froze up and it felt like I barely made it back to truck. Good luck!

  33. Stl78(winon,mn) November 7, 2018 at 3:29 pm - Reply

    Tony, plz refrain from calling people out. Thank u sir!

  34. Stl78(winon,mn) November 7, 2018 at 3:30 pm - Reply

    Wow, his comment was removed quickly

  35. Supercell November 7, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    Graphic looks spot on Gary. Good to remember a 1-2” snowfall followed by Canadian cold air for a few days is a significant winter weather event for Kansas City on November 8th.

  36. Mr. Pete November 7, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply

    Ok – NWS forecast now says 1-2 inches! Forecast for 66208. WWA over near Topeka and points west.

    • Frankie November 7, 2018 at 5:31 pm - Reply

      Figured they would come around to it. Models have been consistent over 1″ for this whole week. I believe we will get our first inch.

    • KS Jones November 7, 2018 at 5:32 pm - Reply

      Here’s their forecast for my area:
      NWS Topeka
      Thursday
      Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 33. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
      Thursday Night
      A 40 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 24. 
      And, here’s a map of possible snow accumulation by the NWS in Topeka
      https://www.weather.gov/images/top/wxstory/Tab3FileL.png

  37. Anonymous November 7, 2018 at 5:30 pm - Reply

    I like the graphic, Gary. Easy to understand and informative.

  38. Troy November 7, 2018 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    We have a similar forecast here from Topeka with Hastings NWS (one county West) calling for 3-5″. I was a little surprised they are showing totals that high. Planning on some duck hunting in the afternoon so hopefully its cold enough to the North to bring some down.

  39. RossBo November 7, 2018 at 6:02 pm - Reply

    I would add to graphic: Percentage of Gary wearing snow vest.

  40. Heat Miser November 7, 2018 at 6:13 pm - Reply

    NWS prediction for Lawrence is rain changing to snow around 3:00pm Thursday…around an inch of snow expected. Snow likely Thursday night..around another inch of snow expected. Cool…if we two inches on Nov 7th, how awesome is that.

    • Mr. Pete November 7, 2018 at 6:22 pm - Reply

      Gary’s map just showed 2.3 inches for Prairie Village! 👍

  41. f00dl3 November 7, 2018 at 6:49 pm - Reply

    Does this look familiar?

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018110712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

    Not saying what date this was per new guidelines but it looks rather familiar. It will fit the puzzle piece into my thinking if this trough digs that way.

    • Mike (OP) November 7, 2018 at 7:08 pm - Reply

      👍

    • A1hoops November 7, 2018 at 8:26 pm - Reply

      If you’re saying what i think you are it’s not right. The “other blog” already announced the forbidden word and we are still weeks away

  42. Terry November 7, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

    I heard on a anywhere station was saying that the NWS was thinking of maybe a watch of some kind? Anyone or Gary ?

    • Tony November 8, 2018 at 5:54 am - Reply

      Huh?

  43. disbelief November 7, 2018 at 7:11 pm - Reply

    Humme dude please read. The Fall of the third Reich. It might just scare you and the way you think

  44. KS Jones November 7, 2018 at 7:38 pm - Reply

    It is 41° in Salina, but snow is showing on radar near there.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

  45. snowflakeparkville November 7, 2018 at 8:02 pm - Reply

    All the models seem to settle on 2 inches. (knock on wood)

  46. Ryan November 7, 2018 at 8:16 pm - Reply

    Gary, Any chance you might do a Facebook live tonight or tomorrow?

    • Ryan November 7, 2018 at 9:12 pm - Reply

      Edit: Yes. Great video Gary! Thanks

      • Gary November 7, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

        We had 15,000 people watch the Facebook live at 8:30 PM. The latest models are a good trend. We will discuss in the morning. I am coming on right now at 10 PM.

  47. Psychotic Aardvark November 7, 2018 at 9:32 pm - Reply

    What about the precip down by Wichita? None of the power casts used showed that.

  48. Frankie November 7, 2018 at 11:22 pm - Reply

    Jeez. The NAM today has gone consistently with around 4-5″ and it appears to be on an island with those amounts. Since that model is considered to be more accurate closer to the event because of the hi-res, what do we make of it?

    • Anonymous November 8, 2018 at 1:01 am - Reply

      We don’t. A very complicated network system exists across the United States. And for some god forsaken reason why, I do not know, Kansas City was chosen to almost always have its chance of precipitation no matter how consisten models have been, diminished or taken away or have be split by moisture. Mark my words, by tomorrow, models will either go poof on KC snow, or it just won’t “quite come together” while passing over KC. Goodnight.

  49. Kstater November 8, 2018 at 12:27 am - Reply

    HRRR really wants to warm things up tomorrow afternoon. Both it and the rap are quite weak on snowfall totals, although they don’t get quite to the end yet. I’m hoping the NAM is correct.

  50. Kstater November 8, 2018 at 12:54 am - Reply

    New euro shows 1-2 for kc and 2-3 just west.

  51. Kevin November 8, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Snow on radar but it’s not snowing outside. How does that happen?

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