The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

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Afternoon update:

The data continues to come in with mixed signals on snowfall totals. I have not identified an organized wave, so I am not convinced of any higher totals.  There may be a thin band that has amounts more the 2″, and we will identify this location by morning.

So, I would like you to let me know what you think of this graphic, before I show it on the air at 6 PM or 6:30 tonight. Do you like it? Does it help any?

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Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

As anticipation builds for our first snowflakes of the season for many of us, there is a lot to discuss.  Oh, yes, we already had the earliest accumulation in Kansas City’s history when 0.2″ fell on October 14th.  I did sort of see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza that evening, but it was definitely more like slush droplets.  We likely will not have to wait much longer as snow is in our forecast.  The question is how much? Will the snowflake contest come to an end?  And, is there any chance of ending this historic Kansas City Snow Drought?

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We are now just three months away from reaching five years in a row without even one 3″ snowstorm.  Some of the models have shown 3″ or more, while others have come in with less than an inch.  What I would like to see is more organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it is something I am looking for with each model run that goes by. And, I still don’t see that strong organized wave, which makes any significant snow accumulation less likely.  Since our last 3″ snowstorm on February 7, 2014, almost five years ago, there have been 40 different snowfalls and only around 32″ of snow, for an average per snow of 0.8″.  If this average is reached on Thursday night, then the snowflake contest would continue.

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There has been a trend in the model for lower totals, and farther south.  Some of the models came in overnight with barely a dusting in some spots. This is what I showed last night.  On this map, that purple area indicated 1.5″ or higher.  The trend is down to lower numbers at the moment.  There are four to five more model runs to come in for a new trend to develop.

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Latest GFS Model:

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The latest GFS model shows anywhere from no snow accumulation to a grand total of just over an inch in spots.  Is it “here we go again”?  Why would this happen? Take a look:

2

So, the trend is down. There is little organization on the latest models of any upper level disturbance that would give me higher confidence.  The snow drought continues, and the lack of a 3″ snowstorm streak will likely continue. It is only early November. Let’s see how this pattern continues to set up.

Have a great day and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Kevin
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Kevin

Snow on radar but it’s not snowing outside. How does that happen?

Kstater
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Kstater

New euro shows 1-2 for kc and 2-3 just west.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

HRRR really wants to warm things up tomorrow afternoon. Both it and the rap are quite weak on snowfall totals, although they don’t get quite to the end yet. I’m hoping the NAM is correct.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Jeez. The NAM today has gone consistently with around 4-5″ and it appears to be on an island with those amounts. Since that model is considered to be more accurate closer to the event because of the hi-res, what do we make of it?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

We don’t. A very complicated network system exists across the United States. And for some god forsaken reason why, I do not know, Kansas City was chosen to almost always have its chance of precipitation no matter how consisten models have been, diminished or taken away or have be split by moisture. Mark my words, by tomorrow, models will either go poof on KC snow, or it just won’t “quite come together” while passing over KC. Goodnight.

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

What about the precip down by Wichita? None of the power casts used showed that.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary, Any chance you might do a Facebook live tonight or tomorrow?

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Edit: Yes. Great video Gary! Thanks

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

All the models seem to settle on 2 inches. (knock on wood)

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It is 41° in Salina, but snow is showing on radar near there.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

disbelief
Guest
disbelief

Humme dude please read. The Fall of the third Reich. It might just scare you and the way you think

Terry
Guest
Terry

I heard on a anywhere station was saying that the NWS was thinking of maybe a watch of some kind? Anyone or Gary ?

Tony
Guest
Tony

Huh?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Does this look familiar?

comment image

Not saying what date this was per new guidelines but it looks rather familiar. It will fit the puzzle piece into my thinking if this trough digs that way.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

👍

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

If you’re saying what i think you are it’s not right. The “other blog” already announced the forbidden word and we are still weeks away

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

NWS prediction for Lawrence is rain changing to snow around 3:00pm Thursday…around an inch of snow expected. Snow likely Thursday night..around another inch of snow expected. Cool…if we two inches on Nov 7th, how awesome is that.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary’s map just showed 2.3 inches for Prairie Village! 👍

RossBo
Guest
RossBo

I would add to graphic: Percentage of Gary wearing snow vest.

Troy
Guest
Troy

We have a similar forecast here from Topeka with Hastings NWS (one county West) calling for 3-5″. I was a little surprised they are showing totals that high. Planning on some duck hunting in the afternoon so hopefully its cold enough to the North to bring some down.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I like the graphic, Gary. Easy to understand and informative.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Ok – NWS forecast now says 1-2 inches! Forecast for 66208. WWA over near Topeka and points west.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Figured they would come around to it. Models have been consistent over 1″ for this whole week. I believe we will get our first inch.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Here’s their forecast for my area:
NWS Topeka
Thursday
Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 33. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 24. 
And, here’s a map of possible snow accumulation by the NWS in Topeka
comment image

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Graphic looks spot on Gary. Good to remember a 1-2” snowfall followed by Canadian cold air for a few days is a significant winter weather event for Kansas City on November 8th.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Wow, his comment was removed quickly

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Tony, plz refrain from calling people out. Thank u sir!

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Anyone,
What is the difference in these two? NAM 12km / NAM 32km………. Thanks

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The lower the numerical value, the higher the resolution. 3K is the highest resolution

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Thanks………… Humedude, you ready for Saturday morning? We gonna freeze out in the woods! I already have 10 point down with my bow! Hope we got snow on the ground for opening morning

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Been ready since last year lol
I’m ready for the cold, I hunted last Dec in the alternative season when it was -3F one evening when we had a high of like 2F in late Dec. That was so cold my little buddy froze up and it felt like I barely made it back to truck. Good luck!

craig
Guest
craig
Jack
Guest
Jack

If you look the 500 mb map the storm is much more lined up in the atmosphere, therefore, portraying a more organized band and higher totals.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018110718&fh=27

Look at it compared to the Gary posted in his blog.

Weatherjaded
Guest
Weatherjaded

I believe they are referring to melting and refreezing as temps drop overnight Thursday. Precipitation will be over by then. But couldn’t rule out some untreated surfaces refreezing with temps around 20.

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

KSHB 41’s app says in writing that we have a chance of black ice Friday morning. When did this storm turn into an ice storm Gary?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Please no, I need to go to the airport that morning! 🙁

Adam
Guest
Adam

Slushy roads freezing when the twmp drops overnight would cause patches of black ice

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

“ The term black ice in the United States is often incorrectly used to describe any type of ice that forms on roadways, even when standing water on roads turns to ice as the temperature falls below freezing. Correctly defined, black ice is formed on relatively dry roads, rendering it invisible to drivers. It occurs when in the textures present in all pavements very slightly below the top of the road surface contain water or moisture, thereby presenting a dry surface to tires until that water or moisture freezes and expands; drivers then find they are riding above the road… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Go away, you bother us.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Don’t hate on Keith. He doesn’t bother anybody, glad to see him back posting. I value his and all American’s opinions

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

FV3 pushing heaviest bands of snow to the South and East.

Jack
Guest
Jack

I think the 12z GFS is a good model and really shows the potential of this storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018110712&fh=6 6 a.m Thursday morning you can clearly see the energy over western Colorado. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018110712&fh=36 Here you can see our storm, somewhat lined up and organized over central-western Kansas, and this will paint a good band of snow of central Kansas. Just a little north and east of the “558” will get the heaviest snow. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110712&fh=48 The bullseye being a 3-4 inch band to our southwest. The potential for this storm is a dusting-4 inches, but these higher totals look to be to… Read more »

Kai
Guest
Kai

How far out on the forecast hour of the 12z GFS, in your opinion, should we stop for accuracy and good model data, on the potential for this storm?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Just curious, if the snowflake contest ends with this snow, will it be the earliest that the contest has ever ended?

BSMike
Member
BSMike

WWA inching closer http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Terry
Guest
Terry

In WYCO The street crews have already started treating the bridges and overpasses.

lks2003
Guest
lks2003

No….practice runs, they are not going to treat the streets this early or waste material for a non-event.

Mark
Guest
Mark

I saw a truck on I-35 spraying something on the road, so unless it was water, they were treating the roads.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

please…shift…north…

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

Is anybody paying atrention to the temps AT ALL? In the famous words of Ron Burgandy ” It’s science”

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I sure am. The low temperature (out here beyond the settlements) is predicted to be 14° Friday night. I have three 12′ long, large diameter logs of bois d’arc (bow wood) aka Osage Orange, that I cut last January, and I’ll be turning them into firewood this afternoon.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Is anybody paying atrention to the temps AT ALL? In the famous words of Ron Burgandy ” It’s science”

craig
Guest
Duh
Guest
Duh

It’s measured in the grassy area. Streets and sidewalks don’t count

Terry
Guest
Terry

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow the GFS 12z has gone up some on snow Tolals now 1 to 2 inches

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Forget it Terry

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Given the temperatures through midnight (34 to 37 degrees) I doubt much of what falls will stick. The snowflakes will likely be the big fat juicy flakes that will melt as soon as they hit the ground. I think it will be mostly melted, with perhaps just a dusting on the grass and shrubs. Several models are also showing the heat island effect around Kansas City. So this brings me to a question for Gary. When you decide to take the measurement for the snowflake contest do both the sidewalks/street and grassy areas need to be covered in snow, or… Read more »

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Gary, corredct me if I’m wrong but even if we got an inch, or an inch and a half, whatever it is….the fact that these three systems seem to have produced, and were getting more than an inch worth of accumulaion this early in the season, with models still trending in favor of accumulations, this seems to be great progress compared to last year. All these people above are talking about poof, but like cmon its November 7th

Paul
Guest
Paul

Never Accurate Model??

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Who’s up for a WINTER STORM WARNING 🙂

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I’m waiting to see all of the snowplows out salting all of the streets, although the overpasses and bridges may need some 😉

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’ll take one to go

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

the poof strikes again

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Models status:

GFS: 1 inch
FV3: 1 inch, but slightly more generous
Canadian: 2 inches
Euro: 1 inch
NAM: 6 inches (what?)

Troy
Guest
Troy

Highest snow totals are from the high resolution models like the HRRR and WRF. They have more widespread accumulations than some of the global models.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I see on here all the time that the models (for snow) can’t be trusted until 1-2 days out. Yet here we are one day before the event and models can seem to get a handle on anything. I would argue that the models are just flat out worthless when it comes to predicting snow.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I agree that even sometimes they aren’t accurate even a day or two out…but sometimes they are.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Lol @ anonymous

BSMike
Member
BSMike
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Come on wishcasters! Still time for a 6 incher!!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Anyone wanna talk about god? Only only kidding.

MY_JoCo
Guest
MY_JoCo

LOL!!!

Dave from Shawnee
Guest
Dave from Shawnee

Urbanity, there are plenty of other places to offer your political opinion, please refrain from doing so here as this blog is intended to be about the weather.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

This. Also, to answe your question, she had the backing of every former republican and dem governor alive outside of Brownback and the people want Kansas to have an economical boom with weed legalization which is something that would have never gotten done under Kobach. I’m willing to pay higher taxes if it means our schools are properly funded and that weed is legalized here.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Thank you Dave! Urb go back under that rock please.

Jason
Guest
Jason

+1

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I’m sorry Dave from Shawnee, I thought I was on Gary’s blog. When I see potheads (WK), complete idiots (Lyitc), and a guy with a number, I fully understand why Kelly got in. One more time, Less Govt vs More Govt, Alex I’ll take LESS for a lifetime please. You people hooked on OPM just need to find another country or relearn the history of the greatest nation on Earth.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

You are a f- ing knob. Just. GO. Away.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I hear government control is almost nonexistent in Somalia and Chad. You’re free to move there if you don’t like government.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

We will probably get more snow this year than last, but that’s not saying much. With a moderate to strong El Nino we may end up with more rain events than snow, however with cold fronts pouring in so early in the LRC that may not be the case. Thursday storm is a weak little blurb, a narrow band of 2-4″ could occur anywhere in central KS, but beyond that it looks very weak. I think if this storm exceeds expectations then that would indicate there is a better LRC on the way, if it does very little then we… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

What was Kobach going to do about boarders anyway? He was as far way from any boarder as a state can be, he would have no power over any boarder policies outside of Kansas. You are dealing with the wrath of Kansas voters after they gave Brownback every opportunity to prove his tax experiment could be viable, it proved to be a failure but Kobach was ready to do it all over again. If they hadn’t wrecked our state so badly you would have easily won all seats last night, don’t be mad at the voters be mad at your… Read more »

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

For the record Brownback was hit with low oil and ag prices, plus the Wichita media gave Nancy Pelosi’s nephew Dave Ward his own platform. The legislature could never cut costs and reduce the government because they were afraid of being singled out by the media. Some of these politicians like an idea but can’t stand behind it because they can’t take the heat from the left wing media. The Kansas legislature owed it to every small business to put a moratorium on the tax vote until it was given a 10 year chance to succeed. Success is not only… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I believe in top notch public schools, and affordable ( NOT FREE ) and accessible healthcare. That’s not socialism as you want to define it, its the way its always been in America. You are confusing economic systems with social security systems that actually enhance our Capitalistic system. I have not yet heard a single democrat running to replace capitalism

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

C’mon Hume, you only see what you want to see. What you said is simply not true, that’s liberal vision. I brought it up, I’ll drop it. Back to weather, at least you agreed with my weather hypothesis. Have a good day.

Nate
Guest
Nate

There are no people in the state, at least rural areas, that’s essentially the problem. All you have is “mushy” Republicans and Democrats in and around the larger cities

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Kansas is going to become a swing state. Get used to it. I saw the writing on the wall when I first visited here 3+ years ago and drove through Johnson County. It has all the makings of a typical suburban, slightly-to-the-left techie area. Add in liberal Lawrence and Topeka. Someday even Manhattan will become left-of-center. Maybe Wichita will remain centrist. That’s most of the state’s population there, and the result will be a swing state.

lks2003
Guest
lks2003

Actually JOCO has as many if not more (population) than Sedgwick.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The Manhattan Mercury posted election results for Riley County as follows: Governor and Lieutenant Governor Greg Orman (ind) . . . . . . . . 1,455 7.72 Jeff Caldwell (Lib) . . . . . . . 333 1.77 Laura Kelly (Dem). . . . . . . . 10,619 56.34 Rick Kloos (ind) . . . . . . . . 144 .76 Kris Kobach (Rep). . . . . . . . 6,272 33.28 WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 25 .1 ………… Now back to the weather–The Euro model shows this… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Thanks. Looks like Manhattan is already a little bluer than I thought.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Politicians should learn to stay away from school funding in this state. Its taken several of them down. A lot of KS is just tiny towns where the school is the largest employer and if you threaten it you are done. We had a very popular (around here anyway) Rep from our town and he supported a consolidation bill and got beat out in the next election.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Not sure why the doom n gloom. All models are in a general consensus and Gary’s dusting to 2 in as much as some may not like, is a solid prediction imo. This was never looking to b a big event. U guys had your earliest snowfall of the yr already and now the snowflake contest may very well end in Nov! These are all positive signs!! Above avg snowfall is likely imo this yr. Up here we are sitting at 30 with flurries. Received a dusting overnight. Have a great day!

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Roger that!!

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary on your Graphic you show last night on the news about your snowfall amounts do your still think that a Possibillity still? I know you said we still have fortified more model runs to watch ?

lks2003
Guest
lks2003

As Steven Tyler says everyday on the radio, “Dream On”