Election Day Forecast

/Election Day Forecast

Election Day Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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It’s Election Day!  The US Constitution stated in Amendment XV, which was ratified by the states in 1870: “Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”  Get out there and vote today!

The weather looks great over most of the nation so there should be a big turnout today.  Here is a look at the HRRR model valid at 6 PM today:

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This model shows a thin band of rain forming and right over KC.  There is a storm over southeast Canada, and snow over the northern plains.   Most of the nation will have a calm day, while here in KC we will see increasing clouds with the chance that this band of rain forms as a fast moving disturbance moves overhead.

And, then we will concentrate on this:

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f5weather-3

The models came in overnight with a continuation of showing some low accumulations of snow near KC. The two maps above are the GFS model first, then the European model second. These are snowfall totals ending Friday morning.  Both models have around 1/2″ to 2″ of snow in our area. Last night I went with a dusting to 2″.  Let’s see how the models come in today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds with a chance of rain later this afternoon.  High:  51°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and cooler. High: 45°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy.  Rain, snow, or a mixture is likely by evening.  The precipitation will change to snow before ending with a dusting to 2″ possible. High:  38°

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

2018-11-07T07:22:32+00:00November 6th, 2018|General|65 Comments

65 Comments

  1. A1hoops November 6, 2018 at 7:53 am - Reply

    The weather channel this morning said 3-5 for the KC Metro so I’m going to hope for that prediction:)

    • Frankie November 6, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

      Well with the way the EURO and FV3 are showing accumulations… this can’t be ruled out

    • Brad November 6, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

      Where did you see that at??? In in Overland Park and my weather channel app says less then 1 inch

    • John November 6, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

      I do not know either because for my location it says less than one inch also?

      • Gary November 6, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

        Stop looking at the apps for your forecast. They are wrong 75% of the time. And, it ruins our image, LOL. Sort of kidding, sort of not. I use my weather apps for only one reason, radar.

        Gary

        • Dobber November 6, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

          Word. Weather app forecasts are trash.

          • Gary November 6, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

            I am “sticking” with our dusting to 2″ forecast, which means a dusting is highly possible.

        • Jack November 6, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

          Amen.

        • WeathermanKumke November 6, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

          Amen. I always tell people to look at the raw data themselves rather than use an app because apps aren’t monitored by meteorologists nor are they updated enough.

  2. Urbanity November 6, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    It’s really a non-event, cold air with some light snow, most of it occurring in un-populated areas. KC will get zero – 1/2″ accumulation. The new FV3 is trying to give hope to a weak system with limited moisture and of short duration. Doesn’t sound like a winner in my humble non-meteorological opinion.

    • Johnny November 6, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

      Oh boy

  3. snowflakeparkville November 6, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Models status:

    GFS: 1 inch by 6AM local time Friday
    FV3: 4 inches by 6AM local time Friday
    Canadian: 2 inches by 6AM local time Friday
    Euro: 2 inches in most of KC, up to 3 inches around KCI

    Fingers crossed + knock on wood.

    • A1hoops November 6, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      What about the NAM?

  4. BSMike November 6, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Any snow is welcome after the snow drought the last 4 years!!!!!!!

  5. BSMike November 6, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

    That will be awesome for us deer hunters if this plays out for Saturday!!

  6. Mr. Pete November 6, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

    NWS “Little to no accumulation”. 66208 forecast.

    • Frankie November 6, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      They usually downplay snow events, which is understandable considering the criticism they get when they overestimate. Same as a lot of weather stations around here.

      We will get accumulating snow Thursday. At least an inch.

  7. Heat Miser November 6, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

    Even a dusting would be cool considering it’s only early Novemeber

    • John November 6, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

      You said this same time period last month was mid-October, but it is early in November.

      • Heat Miser November 6, 2018 at 11:58 am - Reply

        Yup…measurable snow is rare here in Mid-October and in early November. Don’t get me wrong..if we can get an inch or two..that’d be even better.

        • Gary November 6, 2018 at 1:38 pm - Reply

          In my first year in KC, we had a huge winter in 1992-1993, followed by the flood of 93 that next summer. There was a huge storm right around Thanksgiving, that looked like it would be a big snow, and it did so in Dodge City, but KC was in a redeveloping zone, and we only got around an inch. Then, December-February were quite exciting with two one foot snowstorms….can you imagine (officially they were like 8 to 10 inch systems. Then, in the next fall, in early November 1993, we had an Arctic outbreak in early November with snow on several days, as I remember we had three one inch snows around the 3,5, and 7th of November. So, we know it is possible. I like the trend on the models. The amount of snow will depend on how much falls as snow, and how cold it is. If it drops to near 32, then we will maximize this system, and if it is 33 or 34, or 35, the amounts will be less. It is certainly an interesting system to track. We have two more full days to see how this looks. Right now, it has been fairly consistent. Will it trend up or down?

          I am at the hospital, so I will miss the 4 PM, my partner Andy is having a procedure done. So, I should be back at work for the 5 PM newscast? We will see. Have a great day!

          Gary

          • Ryan November 6, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

            Will be thinking about Andy today. Hope all goes well!

          • Adam November 6, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

            I remember an ice event the winter of 92. I was stuck downtown after driving from SW Blvd to the Lewis and Clark and abandoning my vehicle on the side of the Lewis and Clark. Ended up sleeping in a hotel lobby because all of the hotels and motels were booked to capacity.

  8. LYITC41 November 6, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Zip zero poof hopefully.

  9. Tony November 6, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    What about black ice?

  10. Jack November 6, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

    My gut is telling me dusting-1. This band will be weakening as it moves over the KC area. Let’s see if there will be any trends that show up in the models today…

    • Mike (OP) November 6, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      2″+…I am not going to be wishy washy.

      • Jack November 6, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

        Saying a dusting-1 might be considered less wishy washy than dusting-2 cause it’s more specific….

      • Heat Miser November 6, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

        Bold prediction…I hope you are right

  11. Kurt November 6, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

    We had black ice Monday morning Oct 15th here is St. Joseph after our 1 to 2 inches of snow. Any precip that falls Thursday night with temps dipping below freezing will cause icy patches in the usual locations (bridges, overpasses). Unless treated, and even with treatment always good to use caution after the first few events each winter.

    Looks like I will be able to clean out the rest of my pots that I planted this weekend; this will be our first hard freeze in the area; the Monday after our October snow, we had clouds move in that night that kept us from tanking like KCI did.

  12. Anonymous November 6, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

    KC Metro = ZERO. Nighty Night. Poof.

    • Johnny November 6, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

      For real?

  13. BSMike November 6, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

    So when yesterdays and today’s episode of precip come back around how much snow ? I would say 4 in. yesterday and 1-2 this afternoon!

  14. LYITC41 November 6, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    How would you know when to look w/o a cycle length?

    • BSMike November 6, 2018 at 12:50 pm - Reply

      Because I’m not dumb!!!

      • Adam November 6, 2018 at 12:57 pm - Reply

        Thumbs up

  15. f00dl3 November 6, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

    Let’s just hope this winter isn’t another winter with 17 snow events all giving us a average of 1/3″. lol – it’s great the pattern can produce snow but can it produce notable snow?

  16. Stl78(winon,mn) November 6, 2018 at 1:12 pm - Reply

    Yes and it will this yr

    • BSMike November 6, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

      I like your thinking STL

    • Mr. Pete November 6, 2018 at 1:53 pm - Reply

      That looks really good for southern JOCO

  17. Jack November 6, 2018 at 1:46 pm - Reply

    This “storm” is going to be phasing into a bigger storm as it passes through. Literally our “storm” is a tiny little notch if you look at the 500mb vort map. We dealt with so many of these storms that really weren’t storms at all last year. We need to keep in mind that if it phases out just a little bit earlier, we will have a dusting at most. Right now the models have a band of snow holding out droping dusting-2 inches. I don’t buy the EURO portraying 2-3 inches across the metro. These are just my thoughts.

  18. Ryan November 6, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    Gary, Do you think a Winter Weather Advisory will end up being issued?

  19. A1hoops November 6, 2018 at 3:01 pm - Reply

    NAM looks more bullish than the previous run

    • Ryan November 6, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

      Link?

        • Gary November 6, 2018 at 3:58 pm - Reply

          New GFS is very bullish on snow. There are a couple of very important features to monitor that would lead to higher snowfall totals. The main wave evolves as it approaches western Kansas early Thursday morning, and there is some northern branch and southern branch jet dynamics that are directly related to this vorticity generation. The trend is for slightly better organization to this system. If this trends a bit stronger, then watch out. A bit weaker, then we have the usual problems with predicting snow around this part of the world. Right now, we will stick with our dusting to 2″ wide spread forecast, which is already significant for early November. We will go up if I see these trends continue. And, I do think a snow advisory or stronger will be issued as temperatures will likely drop into the 20s by Friday morning. The advisory will not be issued until sometime later Wednesday or early Thursday, most likely.

          Thanks for the concerns on Andy. The procedure went well, and he got good results. I just got back to work, and I will be getting ready for the 5, 6, 6:30, and 10 PM newscasts. Check in later bloggers.

          Gary

          • Brad November 6, 2018 at 4:10 pm - Reply

            It’s a winter weather advisory, they discontinued the snow advisory for a couple of years now

  20. Ryan November 6, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

    The NWS Forecast discussion isn’t exactly bullish on snow totals.

    ….
    With nightfall, expect temperatures to drop and precipitation
    types to kick over from rain and/or rain/snow to all snow by 7 or
    9 PM. As a result, not very confident on snow accumulation during
    the day, but given the continued snowfall after sunset thoughts
    are that we will likely pick up a trace to a few tenths of an inch
    of snow in areas south of Highway 50, ranging to around an inch
    in areas near the Iowa border Thursday night into Friday morning.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  21. Bill in Lawrence November 6, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    Gary:

    Good evening to you sir!! So glad Andy is doing well!!

    We’ve had quite the nice band of rain set up over Lawrence this afternoon….Looking at radar the heavier band stretches from say Lone Star Lake to just north of the Lecompton Interchange and then east to maybe Eudora…..I would guess we have picked up at least .5 if not a bit more.

    These 5 waves (Friday, Saturday, Monday, Today and Thursday) will be quite interesting to monitor in cycles 2,3, and 4.

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Gary November 6, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

      I will use your analysis of radar on 41 Action News right now, and thank you! Lots of waves, due in between around when true winter begins and the end of 2018!

      Gary

      • JoeK November 6, 2018 at 5:25 pm - Reply

        I believe this may very well end up a 3″-6″ event with higher totals likely in our region. If I am wrong, I will be glad to eat some of Bills crow :D, but believe based on a number of factors, the models will come into agreement the day of the event. Will be interesting to see if my reasoning is one of calculated logic or fantasy. Either way, tired of fighting the nasty cold/bug I that has accompanied the impending winter season.

  22. Frankie November 6, 2018 at 5:25 pm - Reply

    The 18z NAMs are bullish on snow now with 2-4″. Hard to forecast “little to no snow accumulation” while looking at the models trending up today.

  23. Mark November 6, 2018 at 5:50 pm - Reply

    So I am assuming that there will be travel/ice issues Thursday night and not to travel in the general KC area? What about driving in for work Friday morning?

    • Gary November 6, 2018 at 6:08 pm - Reply

      If we do indeed end the snowflake contest and approach 2″, then Friday will be bad in the morning as it may drop into the middle 20s.

      Gary

  24. Matt November 6, 2018 at 6:10 pm - Reply

    No Freezing Rain been talked about in KS or MO.

    • Gary November 6, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

      No freezing rain. It needs to be 32 degrees or lower and raining for freezing rain. This situation is only snow once the temperatures get to that point. There may be some rain near the beginning with temps above freezing.

      • Matt November 6, 2018 at 11:07 pm - Reply

        We know that because all types of Winter Weather other then that and a Blizzard at moment.

  25. Jack November 6, 2018 at 7:22 pm - Reply

    I am not buying anything above 3 inches widespread until I see it in the next 2 model runs…

  26. BSMike November 6, 2018 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    Most models are saying 3 or more inches and it’s only 48 hours away.

    • Jack November 6, 2018 at 8:47 pm - Reply

      Not the latest Nam..

    • Jack November 6, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

      And the 18z gfs was the model run to show 3 inches….

  27. Ryan November 6, 2018 at 9:51 pm - Reply

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