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Good morning bloggers,

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It’s Election Day!  The US Constitution stated in Amendment XV, which was ratified by the states in 1870: “Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”  Get out there and vote today!

The weather looks great over most of the nation so there should be a big turnout today.  Here is a look at the HRRR model valid at 6 PM today:

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This model shows a thin band of rain forming and right over KC.  There is a storm over southeast Canada, and snow over the northern plains.   Most of the nation will have a calm day, while here in KC we will see increasing clouds with the chance that this band of rain forms as a fast moving disturbance moves overhead.

And, then we will concentrate on this:

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f5weather-3

The models came in overnight with a continuation of showing some low accumulations of snow near KC. The two maps above are the GFS model first, then the European model second. These are snowfall totals ending Friday morning.  Both models have around 1/2″ to 2″ of snow in our area. Last night I went with a dusting to 2″.  Let’s see how the models come in today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds with a chance of rain later this afternoon.  High:  51°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and cooler. High: 45°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy.  Rain, snow, or a mixture is likely by evening.  The precipitation will change to snow before ending with a dusting to 2″ possible. High:  38°

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

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Ryan
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Ryan
BSMike
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BSMike

Most models are saying 3 or more inches and it’s only 48 hours away.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Not the latest Nam..

Jack
Guest
Jack

And the 18z gfs was the model run to show 3 inches….

Jack
Guest
Jack

I am not buying anything above 3 inches widespread until I see it in the next 2 model runs…

Matt
Guest
Matt

No Freezing Rain been talked about in KS or MO.

Mark
Guest
Mark

So I am assuming that there will be travel/ice issues Thursday night and not to travel in the general KC area? What about driving in for work Friday morning?

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The 18z NAMs are bullish on snow now with 2-4″. Hard to forecast “little to no snow accumulation” while looking at the models trending up today.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good evening to you sir!! So glad Andy is doing well!!

We’ve had quite the nice band of rain set up over Lawrence this afternoon….Looking at radar the heavier band stretches from say Lone Star Lake to just north of the Lecompton Interchange and then east to maybe Eudora…..I would guess we have picked up at least .5 if not a bit more.

These 5 waves (Friday, Saturday, Monday, Today and Thursday) will be quite interesting to monitor in cycles 2,3, and 4.

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

The NWS Forecast discussion isn’t exactly bullish on snow totals.

….
With nightfall, expect temperatures to drop and precipitation
types to kick over from rain and/or rain/snow to all snow by 7 or
9 PM. As a result, not very confident on snow accumulation during
the day, but given the continued snowfall after sunset thoughts
are that we will likely pick up a trace to a few tenths of an inch
of snow in areas south of Highway 50, ranging to around an inch
in areas near the Iowa border Thursday night into Friday morning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

NAM looks more bullish than the previous run

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Link?

craig
Guest
Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary, Do you think a Winter Weather Advisory will end up being issued?

Jack
Guest
Jack

This “storm” is going to be phasing into a bigger storm as it passes through. Literally our “storm” is a tiny little notch if you look at the 500mb vort map. We dealt with so many of these storms that really weren’t storms at all last year. We need to keep in mind that if it phases out just a little bit earlier, we will have a dusting at most. Right now the models have a band of snow holding out droping dusting-2 inches. I don’t buy the EURO portraying 2-3 inches across the metro. These are just my thoughts.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

That looks really good for southern JOCO

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yes and it will this yr

BSMike
Member
BSMike

I like your thinking STL

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Let’s just hope this winter isn’t another winter with 17 snow events all giving us a average of 1/3″. lol – it’s great the pattern can produce snow but can it produce notable snow?

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

How would you know when to look w/o a cycle length?

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Because I’m not dumb!!!

Adam
Guest
Adam

Thumbs up

BSMike
Member
BSMike

So when yesterdays and today’s episode of precip come back around how much snow ? I would say 4 in. yesterday and 1-2 this afternoon!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

KC Metro = ZERO. Nighty Night. Poof.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

For real?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

We had black ice Monday morning Oct 15th here is St. Joseph after our 1 to 2 inches of snow. Any precip that falls Thursday night with temps dipping below freezing will cause icy patches in the usual locations (bridges, overpasses). Unless treated, and even with treatment always good to use caution after the first few events each winter. Looks like I will be able to clean out the rest of my pots that I planted this weekend; this will be our first hard freeze in the area; the Monday after our October snow, we had clouds move in that… Read more »

Jack
Guest
Jack

My gut is telling me dusting-1. This band will be weakening as it moves over the KC area. Let’s see if there will be any trends that show up in the models today…

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

2″+…I am not going to be wishy washy.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Saying a dusting-1 might be considered less wishy washy than dusting-2 cause it’s more specific….

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Bold prediction…I hope you are right

Tony
Guest
Tony

What about black ice?

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Zip zero poof hopefully.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Even a dusting would be cool considering it’s only early Novemeber

John
Guest
John

You said this same time period last month was mid-October, but it is early in November.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup…measurable snow is rare here in Mid-October and in early November. Don’t get me wrong..if we can get an inch or two..that’d be even better.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

NWS “Little to no accumulation”. 66208 forecast.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

They usually downplay snow events, which is understandable considering the criticism they get when they overestimate. Same as a lot of weather stations around here.

We will get accumulating snow Thursday. At least an inch.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

That will be awesome for us deer hunters if this plays out for Saturday!!

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Any snow is welcome after the snow drought the last 4 years!!!!!!!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Models status:

GFS: 1 inch by 6AM local time Friday
FV3: 4 inches by 6AM local time Friday
Canadian: 2 inches by 6AM local time Friday
Euro: 2 inches in most of KC, up to 3 inches around KCI

Fingers crossed + knock on wood.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

What about the NAM?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

It’s really a non-event, cold air with some light snow, most of it occurring in un-populated areas. KC will get zero – 1/2″ accumulation. The new FV3 is trying to give hope to a weak system with limited moisture and of short duration. Doesn’t sound like a winner in my humble non-meteorological opinion.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Oh boy

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

The weather channel this morning said 3-5 for the KC Metro so I’m going to hope for that prediction:)

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Well with the way the EURO and FV3 are showing accumulations… this can’t be ruled out

Brad
Guest
Brad

Where did you see that at??? In in Overland Park and my weather channel app says less then 1 inch

John
Guest
John

I do not know either because for my location it says less than one inch also?