Rain Today, Then A Taste Of Winter Later This Week

/Rain Today, Then A Taste Of Winter Later This Week

Rain Today, Then A Taste Of Winter Later This Week

Good morning bloggers,

What am I writing about today?  Are you serious?  I am actually still writing about a chance of snow this week and a winter blast of cold?  Yes, I am, and it is far from etched in stone on what is going to happen.  Before we get to our chance of any snow later this week, there is a disturbance moving across this morning.  Jeff Penner discussed how we had three systems to track, a couple days ago. Last year Kansas City would swing and miss at storm one, swing and miss at storm two, and then swing and miss on storm #3 and we would strike out. This happened many times in the 2017-2018 LRC.  Well, something very different has already happened and multiple times.  Earlier in October, when this pattern began, we didn’t just not swing and miss, we hit a grand slam home run with 10 to 15 inches of rain in the area. Then, we seemed to struggle to get our next storm to produce, and yet, right before our eyes  they have been producing on some positive level.  We did receive a little bit of rain over the weekend from storm #1, and here is storm #2 today below, with potential storm #3 due in Thursday.

Radar as of 7 AM:

RAD_KTWX_N0R

There is a disturbance near Salina, KS and it is heading in this morning. It is producing this nice area of rain.  So, get the raincoats out this morning, and the umbrellas ready. This will move through and then move east of the area this afternoon. Our attention will then shift to this:

1

On this map, above, there is a ridge (the squiggly blue line I drew in). This ridge is a high amplitude ridge extending up to near the North Pole. There is also a wave of energy near Vancouver, Canada that we are monitoring closely.  If this wave of energy combines with new energy being generated around that big upper low over Canada, as it swings south, then conditions will become favorable for a cold precipitation event on Thursday afternoon and evening.

2

By noon Thursday, above, you can see this wave of energy looking decent as Kansas City goes into southwest flow aloft.  In the past few years this would end up weaker and more phased into the flow, and the cold air would take over and we would get no snow in KC.  So, it is something to continue monitoring.  However, the way this 2018-2019 LRC has been setting up, this type of wave has been strengthening a bit as it approaches the KS/MO border, so this means I lean towards the precipitation event happening on Thursday. There will be other questions that need to be answered if this continues to show up, such as timing, possible amounts, and possible impacts?

3

The FV3-GFS model shows this result valid at 6 PM Thursday. The Euro and other models are coming into line with this as well.  We still need to monitor the trends on the models today and by tomorrow as within 24 hours our confidence will grow just a bit on what may happen. Remember, the sun sets now closer to 5 PM, so if this map above is at all accurate, then the snow may be falling after sunset which provides a better chance of snowfall accumulation.   This map below shows one potential snowfall map, that seems to make sense, of 1 to 2 inches near KC.  This would be an incredible development for November in KC.

4

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain this morning. Cloudy and cool with rain ending this afternoon.  0.10″ to 0.50″ possible today.  High:  50°
  • Tonight:  Clearing and cold. Low:  37°
  • Tuesday:  Sunny, then increasing clouds with a 50% chance of a few showers late.  High:  57°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and colder. High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Becoming cloudy with a 70% chance of a mixture of precipitation, changing to snow.  Some accumulation is possible during the early evening.  High:  37°

How about those KC Chiefs! They are now 8-1, and we have New England and the Chargers on our heals.  Big weeks ahead!  Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

2018-11-06T07:51:52+00:00November 5th, 2018|General|78 Comments

78 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete November 5, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    Even if the Thursday snow is a whiff, we have the whole winter ahead! Very early in the season.

  2. LYITC41 November 5, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Heels.

  3. LYITC41 November 5, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    Very nice trend so far. Keep those poofs coming.

  4. BSMike November 5, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

    What poofs LY ???

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

      The new models are coming in pretty decent leading to some snow potential Thursday evening. The timing will be important, as if it comes in after 4 PM, there is a better chance with the sun angle and the earlier sunsets that, even if there is a mixture to start or rain to start, it would change to snow. Still three more full days away. There may still be a problem of the temperature being just a bit too warm.

      And, bloggers, one of the new rules of this blog, along with the old ones, is there will not be a discussion of the cycle length. The earlier discussion is likely way off anyway. Please refrain from discussing this. I am glad to see many of you seeing the incredible LRC and how important it is, and this is no longer to be shared here.

      Gary

      • f00dl3 November 5, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

        When the cycle length is narrowed down will the cycle length discussions be allowed? I’m just wondering because if you put the long range forecasts out that implies the cycle length so if cycle length discussions are not allowed are you discontinuing w/ the long range forecasts and/or going to a premium model for the long range LRC based forecasts?

        • Gary November 5, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

          We are not discussing it here, as I said, and we will not discuss any longer. I will still issue our predictions.

          Gary

      • Numb3rsGuy November 5, 2018 at 11:41 am - Reply

        It would be nice to have an explanation. The cycle length is the main feature of the LRC. Seeing the storms from previous cycles come back around in later ones and using that to predict the weather into next fall is pretty crucial to this theory. We didn’t get an explanation for the comments being turned off, so I don’t expect one for this either. Just seems odd.

        • Gary November 5, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

          We have shared it with everyone for years, and only to hear it doesn’t exist from many. That is the point. It does exist, it is incredible and we are keeping it as our I. P.

          Gary

        • Gary November 5, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

          I just commented. I agree with you. The cycle length is of extreme importance, and I am glad you realize this. My peers do not have a clue, and I have tried to share this for 20 plus years now. They don’t get it, and we are no longer sharing this important factor. For some of you, this may be disappointing. I apologize in advance. We have a few ways that we are working on to share this in the future. For now, this is the rule of this blog.

          Gary

          • Numb3rsGuy November 6, 2018 at 7:33 am - Reply

            Thank you for the explanation!

          • LYITC41 November 6, 2018 at 7:46 am - Reply

            Pretty obvious, the paper got shot down.

  5. BSMike November 5, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    Roger that Gary

  6. snowflakeparkville November 5, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    GFS, FV3, Canadian, Euro all saying 1-2 inches now.

  7. KS Jones November 5, 2018 at 11:21 am - Reply

    Got 0.21″ of drizzle/light rain this morning, bringing out ytd total to 36.39″.

  8. Anonymous November 5, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    Modelitis and wishcasting. Obviously those are not only allowed, but encouraged.

    Zero – “0” snow in KC Metro on Thursday or Friday. Too warm.

    • Mike (OP) November 5, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      I am not wishcasting at all. I could care less if it snows or it doesn’t. What I do like to do is to analyze the differnt models and determine which one is the most accurate. I am sure most people like having the link for convenience so they can look for themselves by just clicking a link and going go straight to a website. Either way make it a great day.
      Happy Holidays!

    • Frankie November 5, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

      How else are you supposed to forecast weather? That is the sole purpose of a weather model. Saying it will be too warm relies on historical temp averages for a month or a day, and that is certainly not a good way to make a forecast.

      • Gary November 5, 2018 at 12:22 pm - Reply

        To everyone concerned about discussing the cycle length. The cycle length has nothing to do with this first storm in the LRC cycle, and this blog is meant to be available to share in the weather experience, in how we discuss snow, for example, and enjoy the storm as it approaches. When it comes to Weather2020 and our Intellectual Property, our CBK (Critical Business Knowledge), we are going to keep that private from now on. The critics will just blast away at us anyway, and for those of you starting to have an understanding of it, well discuss it with your friends. It is just not going to be “Given away” in this forum/blog. That is the main reason I am stating this. So, let’s ENJOY THIS INTERESTING PATTERN we have right now. These are the new rules of the blog. If we can’t follow them, then the comments will have to be turned off again.

        There is a chance of some snow Thursday evening. Let’s have fun. The blog is meant to have fun, create excitement, and not to blast others.

        Gary

        • Tim in Lone Jack November 5, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

          Thats fine gary if thats your choice. Lets not forget I and many others here PAID a subscription to have that private info and it was changed beyond our control. You don’t need to turn my comments off, because after this I simply won’t participate.

          • Gary November 5, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

            Tim, and we may go back to that sometime in the next year. Let’s share in the weather experience, and we hope you stay, and have fun.

            Gary

  9. NoBeachHere November 5, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    It’s one of the main reasons I’m interested in the LRC

    So either;
    Copy rights
    Patent rights
    Conflict of interest

    It’s ok, we as bloggers can discuss amongst ourselves, hopefully???

    Just watch for that 4 corners trough.

  10. Tim in Lone Jack November 5, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    whoa.. and I get my comment deleted for simply asking a question of WHY? You’re going to make me boycott KSHB altogether with those kind of actions..

  11. weatherjaded November 5, 2018 at 12:31 pm - Reply

    Tim,

    He answered your question. Lets not get all offended. Can we share on thoughts on the weather please?

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

      Yes, and bloggers, the new data fits our new pattern. My confidence is quite high that it will snow Thursday evening. I am excited. Let’s share in this excitement. Will the snowflake contest end? That is the question. I am on my way into work, and for the first time in years, I feel I am going to make a snow prediction that will “stick”, pun intended.

      Gary

  12. LYITC41 November 5, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    It is what it is, Tim, cycle length is what it’s all about, if you cant discuss that I dont see how you can talk about it at all. (the theory)

  13. Dobber November 5, 2018 at 12:44 pm - Reply

    Hey Gary, I understand the reasoning for not discussing the cycle length.

    I want to air one grievance with KSHB 41’s weather team. Someone needs to tell Penner to quit using the term black ice every time there is a chance of snow. It’s irespondsible and an inaccurate use of the term. He started using it three winters ago occasionally and more so eeach winter, he said it an awful lot last winter. On his private weather company people pay for his thoughts, not for flamboyant terminology and hype. He just mentioned black ice for Friday morning on Facebook. We don’t need a weather team fear mongering. What term is he going to use when there is an ice storm with black ice?

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 1:05 pm - Reply

      Dobber,

      His “black ice” reference is to what is “possible” by Tuesday morning. There may be a black ice problem by then.

      Gary

    • Johnny November 5, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

      Huh?

    • Heat Miser November 5, 2018 at 2:25 pm - Reply

      Come on, these are professional weather forecasters doing their best and sharing this blog with us. There is a far better and more respectful way to ask the black ice question without calling him ‘irresponsible”.

  14. Tony November 5, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

    So what exactly is this blog if we can’t ask relevant questions (cycle length)?Did something happen recently that I’m missing because the cycle length is the most important aspect of the LRC. Why even allow comments if you can’t “give away” any valuable information?

  15. Roger November 5, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Ok guys. There are reasons beyond our control as bloggers. Personally, this sends warning flags on a possible gag order. Of course this is only my speculation. But, regulations related to the Whistleblower Act of 2012 occurred in 2015 when gag orders were placed on NWS, NOAA, and EPA employees.

  16. Mike (OP) November 5, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/snow-depth-in/20181109-0900z.html

    EURO model with a slightly different look. Anyone North of I-70 will like this one.

    • Frankie November 5, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

      The EURO at least has been consistent. You have to give it that.

  17. Mr. Pete November 5, 2018 at 1:33 pm - Reply

    Gary – please don’t turn off the comments again. I for one have never discussed cycle lengths and I never will. I just come on here to talk about the weather! When the comments were shut off, that was so sad, we literally had no where to go. So can we please keep it open during this exciting time of the year (snow season)?

  18. f00dl3 November 5, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

    So the Euro is giving 3-6″ of snow. Everything else is giving us 1-3″, though the new GFS FV3 leans towards the Euro right now. NAM is going to be interesting.

  19. BSMike November 5, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    EVERYONE CALM DOWN!! This is a great site especially during the winter months for me personally. So just follow the rules please!!

    • Jason November 5, 2018 at 3:02 pm - Reply

      Agreed

  20. A1hoops November 5, 2018 at 2:02 pm - Reply

    Yikes this board is going off the rails today! Lol
    Since we can say the length we can find out roughly what the cycle length is from when that big western trough repeats and subtract it from October 6 from when the LRC restarted.
    I do think it would of been a lot better to Atleast named these systems since we can say what the length is so bloggers can see the occurrence

  21. Stl78(winon,mn) November 5, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

    Ñam Will most likely throw a wrench into the forecast..lol

  22. Heat Miser November 5, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

    Snow in early November…sounds awesome to me! 🙂

  23. randyinraymore November 5, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    Any ideas yet about thanksgiving week? We are traveling to northern Montana Tuesday of that week.

  24. Troy November 5, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    You need to come up with a code to use in forecasting, Gary. Like pay for the code and see the site for free. Maybe you could come up with some funky glasses like in National Treasure or something.

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 2:48 pm - Reply

      Well, for now let’s enjoy this chance of snow ride. My goodness. There is a chance of snow, and yes it’s a good sign for winter. The new NAM is bullish on snowfall. I am rather highly confident it will snow Thursday evening.

      Gary

  25. Frankie November 5, 2018 at 2:50 pm - Reply

    The new NAM is now on board with around 2-3.”

    It is looking increasingly likely we will see our first inch if not more Thursday evening. This is so exciting and a great sign for the winter

  26. REAL HUMEDUDE November 5, 2018 at 2:57 pm - Reply

    Going to be impossible to say anything is right on schedule when we don’t know what the schedule is…….sharing that key piece of Data is what brings the theory together for end user. Now you will say such and such feature is right on track, without any way for us to follow along. Sort of difficult to have an LRC theme blog when we cannot discuss the LRC. I WILL respect your rules, I just think you are hurting the LRC rather than advancing it with that rule by taking the science out of it.

    • Michael Casteel November 5, 2018 at 3:24 pm - Reply

      I agree!
      Michael

    • randyinraymore November 5, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

      100% correct!

  27. WeathermanKumke November 5, 2018 at 3:13 pm - Reply

    Gary. I could have told you that Peers unfortunately wouldn’t look at the LRC as a sharp eye as you and I. The LRC does exist and we can see that every day. A lot of other meteorologists simply don’t get the simplistic nature of the tool and how it can help them process the where, when, and why, on certain systems that cycle through each year. That’s not saying much as a lot of our field over the last 6-10 years has started to “phone it in” per say with their forecasts with the technological advances in our field and the updates to the models. News directors tell people to push social media now and to make videos for that and to do all these side projects on top of the job as a meteorologist so sometimes they take the easy way with just using one in house model for every forecast and just rip and paste.

    I completely understand your frustrations and you making the cycle length something we can no longer discuss on this forum. It sucks that other people in our own field won’t even look at it. James Spann and Tom Skilling shouldn’t have that ignorance to reject the idea of cyclic weather patterns

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 4:30 pm - Reply

      Yes, Zach, no doubt about it. And, the LRC goes way, way, way beyond the all important cycle length. Why do I have high confidence in snow now for Thursday night? Because of the early results of this years pattern. I am confident this precipitation event looks like others we have already had in recent weeks. Now, the LRC may not help as much when it comes to snowfall accumulations for each location. This is why we will have fun in the blog in the next few days. It is coming bloggers.

      Gary

  28. Stl78(winon,mn) November 5, 2018 at 3:17 pm - Reply

    We’ve had 3 snow events here in MN but none more than a half in. It would be funny if KC gets an inch before we do. Lol. Hope u guys get it!

  29. Supercell November 5, 2018 at 4:38 pm - Reply

    Question: Will the snowflake contest close early or can we enter all the way up to the event on Thursday?

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

      It makes sense for it to continue all the way up to the moment of the first inch. Because, if the first inch doesn’t happen, there would be no reason to close the contest. So, it will likely result in a tie, if it happens early, and then it would go to a drawing for the winner. Unless it doesn’t happen. The new FV3 GFS has 7″ just southwest of KC. Oh my!

      Gary

  30. weatherjaded November 5, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

    It’s an official contest. You can’t close entry down early because their is a chance of 1″. Regardless of how good that chance is.

    • Heat Miser November 5, 2018 at 4:55 pm - Reply

      Don’t see why not.

    • Gary November 5, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

      The contest will stay open until the second we measure the first inch, or in a couple of weeks at the deadline, whichever comes first.

      • WeathermanKumke November 5, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

        Good thing I already made my post for Thursday.

  31. birdieman November 5, 2018 at 6:06 pm - Reply

    Fascinating blog today. I do miss Jordan’s drought updates and that one dude’s dry creek bed. Oh well…and btw, long range forecasting has existed since the dawn of time in tree rings and soil stratum. Ancients used that data to predict the weather

  32. Rodney November 5, 2018 at 7:05 pm - Reply

    There was a comment on here earlier about when our 4 corners low would return like we saw during that very wet period from Oct 6-10th. I just saw the latest run on the new GFS-FV3 model showing rain over southern CA & a low in the 4 corners area around Nov 20th. Could this be that storm repeating again? Check out this link:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018110518&fh=84

  33. Craig November 5, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

    In a stunning development, Mr. Calm has just a 30% chance “of a little snow” on Thursday.

    • Terry November 5, 2018 at 9:47 pm - Reply

      Who’s mr calm ?

  34. Supercell November 5, 2018 at 9:53 pm - Reply

    Furry channel. Head met there is more interested in being corny then actually being a legit meteorologist. It’s his schtick. He specializes in not making accurate forecasts…

    • Richard November 5, 2018 at 10:13 pm - Reply

      Yet Gary was pumped about being with Al Roker at the K this summer.
      Al is not a meteorologist at all. He is a celebrity.

      Re: New rules.
      How will “this system is right on track” be explained.

      I am looking firward to SNOW !! Don’t care when or how long it takes.
      More than 10 inches !

  35. BSMike November 5, 2018 at 9:56 pm - Reply

    He is truly a waiste of time to watch.

  36. Jack November 5, 2018 at 11:13 pm - Reply

    New gfs looks like widespread 1-2 inches. Looks like a good 5-8 hour window of snow Thursday late afternoon into the late evening.

  37. Frankie November 5, 2018 at 11:23 pm - Reply

    Hello… new FV3 now giving us 4-6 inches.

  38. Rickmckc November 6, 2018 at 12:38 am - Reply

    I’m with others that it seems silly to not be allowed to comment about cycle length. I get it if GARY doesn’t want to weigh in and give away intellectual property. Fair enough.

    But for the rest of us hacks, a big part of the fun is trying to see how things line up. What’s wrong with a few of our more knowledgeable folks (like Bill in Lawrence, foodl3, etc) taking a guess at it? You know for a fact they are looking at it. I’d like to know what they are thinking.

    My goodness, it’s only a blog – not national security or the Chiefs offensive playbook.

  39. f00dl3 November 6, 2018 at 6:48 am - Reply

    So will the comparison maps between the storm in this cycle and the storm in the previous cycle no longer be posted since they give away the pattern length either? I thought those were the most compelling evidence for the LRC. I mean you can do your own research but at the same time, helps to put the pen to the paper.

    Quite frankly the cycle length is the core component to the LRC. We may as well not discuss or promote the LRC anymore if we can’t talk about what defines the “RC”. All your left with after that is you..

  40. Skylar November 6, 2018 at 6:57 am - Reply

    I was surprised by having a frozen windshield this morning and had to scrape all this ice off. Maybe it’s a sign for later this week! Having a second chance for accumulating snow before thanksgiving has even arrived is something that has not happened in a long time around here.

  41. Clint November 6, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

    What critics are you talking about? When I go to national weather blogs and forums I see many post about the LRC and people trying to use it. Having thin skin is not the answer to your technology.

  42. Frankie November 6, 2018 at 7:47 am - Reply

    Looks like models are starting to agree that we will get accumulating snow in the area. The lowest amounts according to the models show around 1″ to 5-6″…

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