Rain Today, Then A Taste Of Winter Later This Week

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Good morning bloggers,

What am I writing about today?  Are you serious?  I am actually still writing about a chance of snow this week and a winter blast of cold?  Yes, I am, and it is far from etched in stone on what is going to happen.  Before we get to our chance of any snow later this week, there is a disturbance moving across this morning.  Jeff Penner discussed how we had three systems to track, a couple days ago. Last year Kansas City would swing and miss at storm one, swing and miss at storm two, and then swing and miss on storm #3 and we would strike out. This happened many times in the 2017-2018 LRC.  Well, something very different has already happened and multiple times.  Earlier in October, when this pattern began, we didn’t just not swing and miss, we hit a grand slam home run with 10 to 15 inches of rain in the area. Then, we seemed to struggle to get our next storm to produce, and yet, right before our eyes  they have been producing on some positive level.  We did receive a little bit of rain over the weekend from storm #1, and here is storm #2 today below, with potential storm #3 due in Thursday.

Radar as of 7 AM:

RAD_KTWX_N0R

There is a disturbance near Salina, KS and it is heading in this morning. It is producing this nice area of rain.  So, get the raincoats out this morning, and the umbrellas ready. This will move through and then move east of the area this afternoon. Our attention will then shift to this:

1

On this map, above, there is a ridge (the squiggly blue line I drew in). This ridge is a high amplitude ridge extending up to near the North Pole. There is also a wave of energy near Vancouver, Canada that we are monitoring closely.  If this wave of energy combines with new energy being generated around that big upper low over Canada, as it swings south, then conditions will become favorable for a cold precipitation event on Thursday afternoon and evening.

2

By noon Thursday, above, you can see this wave of energy looking decent as Kansas City goes into southwest flow aloft.  In the past few years this would end up weaker and more phased into the flow, and the cold air would take over and we would get no snow in KC.  So, it is something to continue monitoring.  However, the way this 2018-2019 LRC has been setting up, this type of wave has been strengthening a bit as it approaches the KS/MO border, so this means I lean towards the precipitation event happening on Thursday. There will be other questions that need to be answered if this continues to show up, such as timing, possible amounts, and possible impacts?

3

The FV3-GFS model shows this result valid at 6 PM Thursday. The Euro and other models are coming into line with this as well.  We still need to monitor the trends on the models today and by tomorrow as within 24 hours our confidence will grow just a bit on what may happen. Remember, the sun sets now closer to 5 PM, so if this map above is at all accurate, then the snow may be falling after sunset which provides a better chance of snowfall accumulation.   This map below shows one potential snowfall map, that seems to make sense, of 1 to 2 inches near KC.  This would be an incredible development for November in KC.

4

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain this morning. Cloudy and cool with rain ending this afternoon.  0.10″ to 0.50″ possible today.  High:  50°
  • Tonight:  Clearing and cold. Low:  37°
  • Tuesday:  Sunny, then increasing clouds with a 50% chance of a few showers late.  High:  57°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and colder. High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Becoming cloudy with a 70% chance of a mixture of precipitation, changing to snow.  Some accumulation is possible during the early evening.  High:  37°

How about those KC Chiefs! They are now 8-1, and we have New England and the Chargers on our heals.  Big weeks ahead!  Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

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FrankieLYITC41ClintNumb3rsGuySkylar Recent comment authors
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Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Looks like models are starting to agree that we will get accumulating snow in the area. The lowest amounts according to the models show around 1″ to 5-6″…

Clint
Guest
Clint

What critics are you talking about? When I go to national weather blogs and forums I see many post about the LRC and people trying to use it. Having thin skin is not the answer to your technology.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

I was surprised by having a frozen windshield this morning and had to scrape all this ice off. Maybe it’s a sign for later this week! Having a second chance for accumulating snow before thanksgiving has even arrived is something that has not happened in a long time around here.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So will the comparison maps between the storm in this cycle and the storm in the previous cycle no longer be posted since they give away the pattern length either? I thought those were the most compelling evidence for the LRC. I mean you can do your own research but at the same time, helps to put the pen to the paper. Quite frankly the cycle length is the core component to the LRC. We may as well not discuss or promote the LRC anymore if we can’t talk about what defines the “RC”. All your left with after that… Read more »

Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

I’m with others that it seems silly to not be allowed to comment about cycle length. I get it if GARY doesn’t want to weigh in and give away intellectual property. Fair enough. But for the rest of us hacks, a big part of the fun is trying to see how things line up. What’s wrong with a few of our more knowledgeable folks (like Bill in Lawrence, foodl3, etc) taking a guess at it? You know for a fact they are looking at it. I’d like to know what they are thinking. My goodness, it’s only a blog –… Read more »

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Hello… new FV3 now giving us 4-6 inches.

Jack
Guest
Jack

New gfs looks like widespread 1-2 inches. Looks like a good 5-8 hour window of snow Thursday late afternoon into the late evening.

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

He is truly a waiste of time to watch.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Furry channel. Head met there is more interested in being corny then actually being a legit meteorologist. It’s his schtick. He specializes in not making accurate forecasts…

Richard
Guest
Richard

Yet Gary was pumped about being with Al Roker at the K this summer.
Al is not a meteorologist at all. He is a celebrity.

Re: New rules.
How will “this system is right on track” be explained.

I am looking firward to SNOW !! Don’t care when or how long it takes.
More than 10 inches !

Craig
Guest
Craig

In a stunning development, Mr. Calm has just a 30% chance “of a little snow” on Thursday.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Who’s mr calm ?

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

There was a comment on here earlier about when our 4 corners low would return like we saw during that very wet period from Oct 6-10th. I just saw the latest run on the new GFS-FV3 model showing rain over southern CA & a low in the 4 corners area around Nov 20th. Could this be that storm repeating again? Check out this link:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018110518&fh=84

birdieman
Guest
birdieman

Fascinating blog today. I do miss Jordan’s drought updates and that one dude’s dry creek bed. Oh well…and btw, long range forecasting has existed since the dawn of time in tree rings and soil stratum. Ancients used that data to predict the weather

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

It’s an official contest. You can’t close entry down early because their is a chance of 1″. Regardless of how good that chance is.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Don’t see why not.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Question: Will the snowflake contest close early or can we enter all the way up to the event on Thursday?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

We’ve had 3 snow events here in MN but none more than a half in. It would be funny if KC gets an inch before we do. Lol. Hope u guys get it!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Gary. I could have told you that Peers unfortunately wouldn’t look at the LRC as a sharp eye as you and I. The LRC does exist and we can see that every day. A lot of other meteorologists simply don’t get the simplistic nature of the tool and how it can help them process the where, when, and why, on certain systems that cycle through each year. That’s not saying much as a lot of our field over the last 6-10 years has started to “phone it in” per say with their forecasts with the technological advances in our field… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Going to be impossible to say anything is right on schedule when we don’t know what the schedule is…….sharing that key piece of Data is what brings the theory together for end user. Now you will say such and such feature is right on track, without any way for us to follow along. Sort of difficult to have an LRC theme blog when we cannot discuss the LRC. I WILL respect your rules, I just think you are hurting the LRC rather than advancing it with that rule by taking the science out of it.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I agree!
Michael

randyinraymore
Guest
randyinraymore

100% correct!

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The new NAM is now on board with around 2-3.”

It is looking increasingly likely we will see our first inch if not more Thursday evening. This is so exciting and a great sign for the winter

Troy
Guest
Troy

You need to come up with a code to use in forecasting, Gary. Like pay for the code and see the site for free. Maybe you could come up with some funky glasses like in National Treasure or something.

randyinraymore
Guest
randyinraymore

Gary,
Any ideas yet about thanksgiving week? We are traveling to northern Montana Tuesday of that week.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Snow in early November…sounds awesome to me! 🙂

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Ñam Will most likely throw a wrench into the forecast..lol

craig
Guest
craig

NAM up to 2-3″
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110518&fh=84

I fear that Gary’s head will explode if our 1200-day no 3″ streak is broken in November!

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Yikes this board is going off the rails today! Lol
Since we can say the length we can find out roughly what the cycle length is from when that big western trough repeats and subtract it from October 6 from when the LRC restarted.
I do think it would of been a lot better to Atleast named these systems since we can say what the length is so bloggers can see the occurrence

BSMike
Member
BSMike

EVERYONE CALM DOWN!! This is a great site especially during the winter months for me personally. So just follow the rules please!!

Jason
Guest
Jason

Agreed

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So the Euro is giving 3-6″ of snow. Everything else is giving us 1-3″, though the new GFS FV3 leans towards the Euro right now. NAM is going to be interesting.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary – please don’t turn off the comments again. I for one have never discussed cycle lengths and I never will. I just come on here to talk about the weather! When the comments were shut off, that was so sad, we literally had no where to go. So can we please keep it open during this exciting time of the year (snow season)?

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/snow-depth-in/20181109-0900z.html

EURO model with a slightly different look. Anyone North of I-70 will like this one.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

The EURO at least has been consistent. You have to give it that.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Ok guys. There are reasons beyond our control as bloggers. Personally, this sends warning flags on a possible gag order. Of course this is only my speculation. But, regulations related to the Whistleblower Act of 2012 occurred in 2015 when gag orders were placed on NWS, NOAA, and EPA employees.

Tony
Guest
Tony

So what exactly is this blog if we can’t ask relevant questions (cycle length)?Did something happen recently that I’m missing because the cycle length is the most important aspect of the LRC. Why even allow comments if you can’t “give away” any valuable information?

Dobber
Guest
Dobber

Hey Gary, I understand the reasoning for not discussing the cycle length. I want to air one grievance with KSHB 41’s weather team. Someone needs to tell Penner to quit using the term black ice every time there is a chance of snow. It’s irespondsible and an inaccurate use of the term. He started using it three winters ago occasionally and more so eeach winter, he said it an awful lot last winter. On his private weather company people pay for his thoughts, not for flamboyant terminology and hype. He just mentioned black ice for Friday morning on Facebook. We… Read more »

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Huh?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Come on, these are professional weather forecasters doing their best and sharing this blog with us. There is a far better and more respectful way to ask the black ice question without calling him ‘irresponsible”.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

It is what it is, Tim, cycle length is what it’s all about, if you cant discuss that I dont see how you can talk about it at all. (the theory)

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

Tim,

He answered your question. Lets not get all offended. Can we share on thoughts on the weather please?

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

whoa.. and I get my comment deleted for simply asking a question of WHY? You’re going to make me boycott KSHB altogether with those kind of actions..

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

It’s one of the main reasons I’m interested in the LRC

So either;
Copy rights
Patent rights
Conflict of interest

It’s ok, we as bloggers can discuss amongst ourselves, hopefully???

Just watch for that 4 corners trough.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Modelitis and wishcasting. Obviously those are not only allowed, but encouraged.

Zero – “0” snow in KC Metro on Thursday or Friday. Too warm.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

I am not wishcasting at all. I could care less if it snows or it doesn’t. What I do like to do is to analyze the differnt models and determine which one is the most accurate. I am sure most people like having the link for convenience so they can look for themselves by just clicking a link and going go straight to a website. Either way make it a great day.
Happy Holidays!

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

How else are you supposed to forecast weather? That is the sole purpose of a weather model. Saying it will be too warm relies on historical temp averages for a month or a day, and that is certainly not a good way to make a forecast.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Got 0.21″ of drizzle/light rain this morning, bringing out ytd total to 36.39″.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

GFS, FV3, Canadian, Euro all saying 1-2 inches now.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Roger that Gary

BSMike
Member
BSMike

What poofs LY ???

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Very nice trend so far. Keep those poofs coming.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Heels.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Even if the Thursday snow is a whiff, we have the whole winter ahead! Very early in the season.