One System Down, Two to Go

Good Sunday bloggers,

We continue to track three storm systems. The first one will exit today, but not before we have drizzle and a few showers this morning. The second system will affect Monday and the third system will affect Thursday. This third system is most interesting.

You can see all three systems on the satellite.

1

This first system extends north-south about 1150 miles from Lake Superior to south Texas. We are on the southwest side of the main system and we are seeing drizzle and a few showers rotating into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

2

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be gone as the clouds linger. It will be breezy from the west at 10-20 mph with temperatures in the 40s.

3

MONDAY MORNING: Storm system #2 will already have an effect as areas of light to moderate rain move in from the west. This rain may very well affect the morning rush hour. Lows will be 40°-45°.

4

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Drizzle and scattered showers will linger with highs stuck in the 40s. We are expecting a new .10″ to .25″ with this system. A few locations may see .25″ to .50″. This system is a fast mover and will exit by Election Day.

5

ELECTION DAY MORNING: It will be mostly clear and dry with lows 35°-40°. The wind will be west at 5-15 mph.

6

ELECTION DAY AFTERNOON: We will have great voting weather with highs in the 50s, a west wind 5-15 mph and areas of high clouds.

7

Now we turn our attention to Thursday and storm system #3. We are going to show two different solutions and actually this first one is in the minority.

It will be cold enough to support snow Thursday. So, the questions are, “will there be a storm system to generate snow?” And, if there is a storm system, “where will it track?” All the data seems to have the storm system. But there are varying opinions on the track.

This solution has  a smaller system that tracks south of I-70.

8

This solution has a much bigger storm system and widespread snow as you can see. It is this second solution that is actually in the majority. It is four days out and still so much can change. Stay Tuned!

9

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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LYITC41
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LYITC41

And an outstanding trend it is!! Hope it continues.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Looks like the trend has been little to no snow. Euro now showing about 1/2″, FV3 GFS showing at most a dusting, and GFS non-FV3 showing about the same.

Jason
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Jason

Played golf today. Wasn’t terrible although a little windy

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Sunday evening to you sir!! I have stated a couple of times this week my feelings for this LRC and whether or not it snows on Thursday will have no bearing at all on those thoughts. I remain excited for this LRC and am firmly convinced it will be a serviceable winter LRC. One thing I am absolutely certain of is that this LRC has provided one of the most beautiful and amazing Autumns we have had here in a very long time. The colors on the trees, the temperatures….it has been an absoluetly phenomenal Fall. Just gorgeous!!… Read more »

RossBo
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RossBo

I know several that have gone up to New England this Fall for fall foliage photos and tours. Then, they came back and wondered why they left the incredibly intense and vibrant Fall colors we have in KC area.

Tony
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Tony

*neither

Terry
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Terry

What’s the Difference between the FV3 GFS and the GFS model ? Which ones better ?

Tony
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Tony

Niether one.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

Looks like snow totals on the FV3 went up a tad to 2-4 inches

Frankie
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Frankie

and GFS has nothing. If we’re supposed to accept the FV3 as the replacement of the GFS, shouldn’t we give it credence? It was alone in showing our snow on Oct 12 that we got, while the GFS had us dry. Just something to think about.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

models cant predict snow total with any accuracy at all in our area this far out

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The WeatherInderground forecast that was issued Friday showed 1 to 3″ of snow on Thursday. They changed that to 3 to 5″ yesterday, but now they are predicting <1".

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Overall trend has been less snow on the models today, we will have plenty of chances further down the road.

Jason
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Jason

Deep breaths everyone. Wait until Tuesday to draw any conclusions. We have been through this wat to many times.

Mike (OP)
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Mike (OP)
snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

FV3 and Euro are now both giving 2 inches. GFS gives like one snowflake floating through the air. Canadian is poof.

Terry
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Terry

The 12z European model starting to come out now.

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

I am thinking we can still discuss the cycle length but Gary will not chime in on that. Not certain as to why.

Adam
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Adam

Early 12z models do not look good..

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Given what we have seen so far, I think these storms will produce if these are right timed with cold air surges. So we had a trough to start this LRC, that’s great, but we need to see it again before I buy that it’s really there and not just some possible transitional variance. Now, and the RRR(Ridiculously Resilient Ridge)continues, we are seeing a mix between almost zonal to slight NW flow with with a series of storms not only on the north side but small, quick storms from the west. I’m not sure anyone can peg a snow amount,… Read more »

Tony
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Tony

Let the let downs begin lol

Frankie
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Frankie

GFS = poof
Canadian = poof
FV3 = 2-5 inches
EURO = widespread 6-8 inches

I’d say it is trending down a bit…

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

They always do that this far out…check the models again in a couple of days. What they say now never match what they say as the event nears..kinda of a waste of time more than 3 days out.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Most of my trees have dropped at least half of their leaves so I don’t think it would be much of an issue here.

Brad
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Brad

New Canadian model just went poof

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

models dont mean much more than two or three days out when it comes to snow in our area. Check them again tomorrow pm or Tuesday am for any kind of real shot at any accuracy

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

I wondered the same. Still have trees with substantial amount of leaves. Is this a dry snow or heavy wet snow? I’m guessing temperatures suggest more of a wet snow. Ha ha. I’m saying snow like we are actually going to get some.

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

IF we get what some of the models are saying, could it become a problem with a bunch of the trees still having leaves on them?

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

I was thinking the same thing I have a maple in the backyard with a tree full of leaves.

Jan
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Jan

Oh no. No snow please

Terry
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Terry
Terry
Guest
Terry

On the FV3 You’ll have to run the little bar through to see the amounts of snow

Frankie
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Frankie

The only model that has really backed off is the GFS. The FV3, Canadian, and EURO (especially) all still have accumulating snow.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

They must be using the euro??

Terry
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Terry
A1hoops
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A1hoops

Is that showing 6-8 right across I-70?

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Yes!

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Come on solution #2!!