One System Down, Two to Go

/One System Down, Two to Go

One System Down, Two to Go

Good Sunday bloggers,

We continue to track three storm systems. The first one will exit today, but not before we have drizzle and a few showers this morning. The second system will affect Monday and the third system will affect Thursday. This third system is most interesting.

You can see all three systems on the satellite.


This first system extends north-south about 1150 miles from Lake Superior to south Texas. We are on the southwest side of the main system and we are seeing drizzle and a few showers rotating into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.


SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be gone as the clouds linger. It will be breezy from the west at 10-20 mph with temperatures in the 40s.


MONDAY MORNING: Storm system #2 will already have an effect as areas of light to moderate rain move in from the west. This rain may very well affect the morning rush hour. Lows will be 40°-45°.


MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Drizzle and scattered showers will linger with highs stuck in the 40s. We are expecting a new .10″ to .25″ with this system. A few locations may see .25″ to .50″. This system is a fast mover and will exit by Election Day.


ELECTION DAY MORNING: It will be mostly clear and dry with lows 35°-40°. The wind will be west at 5-15 mph.


ELECTION DAY AFTERNOON: We will have great voting weather with highs in the 50s, a west wind 5-15 mph and areas of high clouds.


Now we turn our attention to Thursday and storm system #3. We are going to show two different solutions and actually this first one is in the minority.

It will be cold enough to support snow Thursday. So, the questions are, “will there be a storm system to generate snow?” And, if there is a storm system, “where will it track?” All the data seems to have the storm system. But there are varying opinions on the track.

This solution has  a smaller system that tracks south of I-70.


This solution has a much bigger storm system and widespread snow as you can see. It is this second solution that is actually in the majority. It is four days out and still so much can change. Stay Tuned!


Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

2018-11-05T07:22:42+00:00November 4th, 2018|General|40 Comments


  1. A1hoops November 4, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    Come on solution #2!!

  2. Terry November 4, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply
    • A1hoops November 4, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

      Is that showing 6-8 right across I-70?

      • snowflakeparkville November 4, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply


  3. Lrcfan1 November 4, 2018 at 8:35 am - Reply

    They must be using the euro??

  4. Frankie November 4, 2018 at 8:36 am - Reply

    The only model that has really backed off is the GFS. The FV3, Canadian, and EURO (especially) all still have accumulating snow.

    • Terry November 4, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

      On the FV3 You’ll have to run the little bar through to see the amounts of snow

  5. Jan November 4, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    Oh no. No snow please

  6. Psychotic Aardvark November 4, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

    IF we get what some of the models are saying, could it become a problem with a bunch of the trees still having leaves on them?

    • Lrcfan1 November 4, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      I was thinking the same thing I have a maple in the backyard with a tree full of leaves.

  7. Elaine Watson November 4, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

    I wondered the same. Still have trees with substantial amount of leaves. Is this a dry snow or heavy wet snow? I’m guessing temperatures suggest more of a wet snow. Ha ha. I’m saying snow like we are actually going to get some.

  8. Brad November 4, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

    New Canadian model just went poof

    • Heat Miser November 4, 2018 at 2:44 pm - Reply

      models dont mean much more than two or three days out when it comes to snow in our area. Check them again tomorrow pm or Tuesday am for any kind of real shot at any accuracy

  9. Mr. Pete November 4, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    Most of my trees have dropped at least half of their leaves so I don’t think it would be much of an issue here.

  10. Frankie November 4, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    GFS = poof
    Canadian = poof
    FV3 = 2-5 inches
    EURO = widespread 6-8 inches

    I’d say it is trending down a bit…

    • Heat Miser November 4, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

      They always do that this far out…check the models again in a couple of days. What they say now never match what they say as the event nears..kinda of a waste of time more than 3 days out.

  11. Tony November 4, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

    Let the let downs begin lol

  12. NoBeachHere November 4, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    Given what we have seen so far, I think these storms will produce if these are right timed with cold air surges.
    So we had a trough to start this LRC, that’s great, but we need to see it again before I buy that it’s really there and not just some possible transitional variance.
    Now, and the RRR(Ridiculously Resilient Ridge)continues, we are seeing a mix between almost zonal to slight NW flow with with a series of storms not only on the north side but small, quick storms from the west. I’m not sure anyone can peg a snow amount, without being a pure guess, but so far, we know we may get a weeks worth of a 4 corners ejecting storms, followed by a few weeks of small, quick storms originating from multiple spots. The next few weeks will tell more, including what’s happening now and within the next 5 days, as to what this LRC holds.
    I think we’ll know the beginning of cycle 2 by the signature(might be?)trough out west.

    BTW, what necessitated not discussing certain things pertaining to the LRC?

  13. Adam November 4, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

    Early 12z models do not look good..

  14. Elaine Watson November 4, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

    I am thinking we can still discuss the cycle length but Gary will not chime in on that. Not certain as to why.

  15. Terry November 4, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

    The 12z European model starting to come out now.

  16. snowflakeparkville November 4, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    FV3 and Euro are now both giving 2 inches. GFS gives like one snowflake floating through the air. Canadian is poof.

  17. Jason November 4, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

    Deep breaths everyone. Wait until Tuesday to draw any conclusions. We have been through this wat to many times.

  18. Lrcfan1 November 4, 2018 at 4:53 pm - Reply

    Overall trend has been less snow on the models today, we will have plenty of chances further down the road.

  19. KS Jones November 4, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

    The WeatherInderground forecast that was issued Friday showed 1 to 3″ of snow on Thursday. They changed that to 3 to 5″ yesterday, but now they are predicting <1".

  20. A1hoops November 4, 2018 at 5:31 pm - Reply

    Looks like snow totals on the FV3 went up a tad to 2-4 inches

    • Frankie November 4, 2018 at 5:39 pm - Reply

      and GFS has nothing. If we’re supposed to accept the FV3 as the replacement of the GFS, shouldn’t we give it credence? It was alone in showing our snow on Oct 12 that we got, while the GFS had us dry. Just something to think about.

      • Heat Miser November 4, 2018 at 6:16 pm - Reply

        models cant predict snow total with any accuracy at all in our area this far out

  21. Terry November 4, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

    What’s the Difference between the FV3 GFS and the GFS model ? Which ones better ?

    • Tony November 4, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

      Niether one.

  22. Tony November 4, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply


  23. Bill in Lawrence November 4, 2018 at 8:20 pm - Reply


    Happy Sunday evening to you sir!!

    I have stated a couple of times this week my feelings for this LRC and whether or not it snows on Thursday will have no bearing at all on those thoughts. I remain excited for this LRC and am firmly convinced it will be a serviceable winter LRC.

    One thing I am absolutely certain of is that this LRC has provided one of the most beautiful and amazing Autumns we have had here in a very long time. The colors on the trees, the temperatures….it has been an absoluetly phenomenal Fall. Just gorgeous!!

    Hope everyone has been able to enjoy it and can continue to enjoy it!!!!

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • RossBo November 4, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

      I know several that have gone up to New England this Fall for fall foliage photos and tours. Then, they came back and wondered why they left the incredibly intense and vibrant Fall colors we have in KC area.

  24. Jason November 4, 2018 at 8:34 pm - Reply

    Played golf today. Wasn’t terrible although a little windy

  25. f00dl3 November 5, 2018 at 6:56 am - Reply

    Looks like the trend has been little to no snow. Euro now showing about 1/2″, FV3 GFS showing at most a dusting, and GFS non-FV3 showing about the same.

  26. LYITC41 November 5, 2018 at 7:00 am - Reply

    And an outstanding trend it is!! Hope it continues.

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