Tracking Three Storm Systems

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We are going into an active pattern the next seven days and we are tracking three storm systems. Let’s take them one at a time.

STORM SYSTEM #1: Today and Sunday

There will be scattered showers today, mostly northwest of KC. Then, as the main system arrives this evening we will see a band of widespread rain and a few thunderstorms rapidly form across eastern Kansas. This band will track east tonight, affecting our area mostly between 6 PM and midnight. Some of the rain may be rather heavy at times. After midnight the rain will shift to the east.

1

Sunday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool with perhaps a few morning showers. The sky will clear after 4-5 PM, but remember, the sun will set at 5:14 PM as we turn the clocks back one hour tonight. So, we will not see much sun. Also, check the fire alarm batteries tonight.

2

STORM SYSTEM #2: This will move through Monday with more rain and temperatures in the 40s. The rain will exit Monday night, so Election day is looking dry and breezy with highs around 50°.

3

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: When you add up the rain between the two storm systems, most locations will see .50″ to 1.00″ of rain. There will be some areas that see 1.00″-1.50″, especially in Missouri.

4

STORM SYSTEM #3: There are many questions with this storm system. The latest data has most of the rain and snow south of I-70. It does look like there will be enough cold air for snow, but where will the storm track? Will it even be much of a storm system? These are questions that we have much time to answer.

5

Now, just to be safe. You should enter the Snowflake contest ASAP. When will the first one inch of snow occur at the 41 Action News studio as measured by one of our meteorologists?

6

Here is another reminder to set the clocks back one hour tonight. It is also good to change the fire alarm batteries as well.

7

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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WeathermanKumkeKstaterBluetoothAdamMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

Weatherman Kumke has officially entered his name into the hat for Thursday at 2:51PM for seeing the first inch. Jet dynamics should maximize between 14-19z which will lead to 2-3 inches across much of the KC area.

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

0Z gfs shows widespread snow south of 1-70 but not much. Fv3 GFS brings back the snow big time and the Canadian shows a widespread few inches.

Adam
Guest
Adam

0z GFS has no snow..

Maybe a dusting.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

It’s 2018. There is no longer such a thing as a winter storm. Instead we get repeated dustings from October to April.

As a side note, can someone link me to this apparently famous “the same, but different” quote?

Tony
Guest
Tony

God there are some dumbasses here. Gary probably shakes his head at the majority of the bloggers

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

This storm has been a bust. I trusted local forecasts and put winterizer down and storm has split around us. Less than a tenth of an inch 😡

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

But multiple chances for rain the next few days. Light rain at the moment now in Prairie Village too.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

1. Its early November…a month and a half until winter starts…significant snow here would be very unusual. 2. As we all have learned over and over and over again, the models can’t accurately predict snow here more than two or three days out. 3. Lets see what the models show 48-72 hrs out max

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary thanks for re opening up the comments here. It’s appreciated. I’m am starting to notice some rain to the SW on the radar now.

Terry
Guest
Terry

You guys are so lol believing in what the FV3 -GFS and now what the GFS 18z is saying for Thursday Lol wait until Monday/Tuesday to do that one. The GFS model have been all over the place as of the 6pm weather forecast from Gerard. He said it still has to been watched.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Yup. GFS caved to the FV3.

Sounds alot like…..last year.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Note the cold air winning out. The Rocky Mountain trough part of the pattern and the North Central troughs may cause the cold air to be too strong and push the axis for heavy snows too far south again yet this winter. The irony is with no California moisture fetches, any storms that form in the 4 corners aea due to the Rocky trough digging deep may track tooo far south to give KC snow. Springfield MO and Oklahoma City may have double our snow.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The jet stream is certainly taking a deep dive along the front slope of the Rockies.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Like Gary said, it will be real bad if the moisture cannot get into California.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

This….and it has yet to.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Yep, that’s the point I’m trying to make. I don’t really care about the models or the accompanying modelitis….

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

18z gfs poof

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

18z is the off run…wait till midnight. If it sucks then yes it is POOF…

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)
A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Well that’s completely different from the gfs models lol

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

That’s pretty close to the Weather Channel’s prediction.
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-11-03-cold-blast-accumulating-snow-plains-midwest

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

What does the latest euro show?

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

And salt the streets. And cancel school.

Tony
Guest
Tony

Buy groceries now!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

So now the FV3 is giving us nothing and the GFS is saying 4″ of snow. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018110312&fh=240

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yesterday evening, the NWS said it would be mostly sunny Tuesday through Friday here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville), whereas WeatherUnderground predicted we’d get 1 to 3″ of snow on Thursday.
Now the NWS says we have a 50% chance of snow on Thursday, and WeatherUnderground says we’ll get from 3 to 5″ of snow.
The low temperatures in both forecasts has dropped for Thursday night (24° NWS and 22° WU). WU shows more snow Monday night (11/12) through Tuesday (11/13).

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

FV3 with the first poof of the season

Terry
Guest
Terry

I still think this last run of the New CV3 GFS model run for the 12z snow fall run So a computer glitch Therefore I don’t put a grain of salt into it

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Oh Terry, Terry.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Still too far out, if we’re still seeing this come Wed I’ll start believing it’s going to happen. You know the hx of these models, don’t count on it. Hopefully just some nice rain.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I don’t take any models seriously when it comes to snow until a few days out…learned that lesson a long time ago

Terry
Guest
Terry
Terry
Guest
Terry
Three7s
Guest
Three7s

FV3 caved to the GFS.

Terry
Guest
Terry

So how could the FV3 caved to the GFS when the new FV3 GFD 12z is coming out now still remember there is still wiggle because it’s 5 days away.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Let it snow! How exciting at the possibility.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Great sign for our winter if this actually occurs… Early Nov… let it snow!

Tony
Guest
Tony

Storm Terry due in next week!!!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

From the NWS
With colder air in closer proximity to the region, this system may bring the best potential for snow to the area so far this season. The main changes to the
forecast for the Wednesday – Friday time frame were to lower temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees and increase PoPs. This allows for snow across mainly northern MO and far northeastern KS Wednesday night and early Thursday. It`s still very early and things will
change, but it looks like a few inches of snow are possible along and north of I-70 with this system based on tonight`s suite of guidance.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

Let’s see how tonight’s storm, Monday’s storm and Thursday snow event go. That will really be a tell tell sign of the new pattern. Fingers crossed!!

Terry
Guest
Terry

What’s the snowflake contest Link ?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The GFS really suppresses the storm and it isn’t negatively tilted like it is on the FV3. I might by this solution last year, but not sure this year. Could be a telling part of the pattern as far as what this storm does.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

buy*……too early for me.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Not seeing that, GFS run O6Z Sat only showing 1” across ks.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Oh you’re looking at FV3. Okay.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

With modeling like that the FV3 may never get off the ground, the storm dynamics do not appear to support anything like that based on other models, and even the NOAA ignoring it. Maybe KC and east have a shot at 2-3”.