Is That Cold Air I See Building Up?

/Is That Cold Air I See Building Up?

Is That Cold Air I See Building Up?

Good morning bloggers,

Anticipation of the signs of winter weather is growing as we move through this month. Kansas City averages about 1″ of snow during the month of November.  The largest snowstorm in KC November records has been 9″, so it can happen at this time of the year.  It also can happen in October, as we learned October 22, 1996 when up to 8 inches of snow fell.  The problem is, we haven’t had much snow in many years and it would almost be shocking to our weather minds if anything more than 2″ was in the forecast.  Okay, hang on. I must have snow on my mind.  Here are the October stats:

1

What a month we just had.  It was 91 degrees and 26 degrees 13 days apart.  We had the earliest measurable snowfall in KC history when 0.2″ fell at KCI Airport.  I only saw a few wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza.  And, the big second week of the month, and yes in this years LRC, where so much rain fell placing us with over 7 inches of rain above average. This rain wiped out what was left of the drought conditions.

So, we move on into November, and cold air is now building up over the high latitudes.  Take a look.

gfs_T2m_nhem_20

This map above shows the temperature forecast valid at 6 AM Tuesday.  Two pockets of very cold Arctic air is forecast to build up, one over Greenland, and the second over Siberia.  The pattern is supportive for this to build stronger into the middle of next week due to a big ridge forming aloft over eastern Alaska and western Canada. We will look deeper into this developing pattern in the next few blog entries.  And, yes, some models have started to show snow close to Kansas City.

There are a few showers this morning associated with a weak storm system, and then a second fast moving weak storm may bring some rain Saturday evening.  This will be followed by a potentially stronger storm early next week.  A lot to discuss.

Thank  you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-11-03T07:38:04+00:00November 2nd, 2018|General|48 Comments

48 Comments

  1. Skylar November 2, 2018 at 7:39 am - Reply

    All of the local NWS employees live in the KC area, so it would be kind of surprising if they didn’t have some awareness of Gary and the LRC. It’s hard not to wonder when they say things like this:

    “The next system, in this train of northwest flow disturbances, will
    move into the area Monday into Tuesday. This looks like the
    strongest of the systems, to this point, with much better jet
    dynamics. If this were a month later, it could be a major snow
    storm. But for now it looks too warm to support frozen
    precipitation.”

  2. LYITC41 November 2, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    Sooo… what’s your point?

  3. Clint November 2, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    And we know this system will cycle back through in late Dec or early Jan and likely be a major snow storm.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE November 2, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

      “could be” a major snow storm in Nebraska, we have zero clue what this storm will do next time it cycles through. “Could be” a lot of different outcomes. Lets see it snow appreciably first before anointing this a snowy LRC. Proof in the pudding

      • Clint November 2, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

        Its a big enough system to have high confidence it will return, my bigger concern is that it may track to far south but most likely will produce for us. Not sure how snowy this LRC will be, its to early. There is some reason to believe that it will produce a major snow or 2

  4. A1hoops November 2, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    How has the AO and the NAO been trending so far?

  5. Bill in Lawrence November 2, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Friday to you sir and to all 20/20 Bloggers. Hope everyone is having a great morning and has a great day!! What an absolutely gorgeous October it has been. The colors so far this fall have been just stunning!!!!

    A couple random thoughts on this still developing pattern from a history teacher who again did not stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night….which means take with a huge grain of salt!!

    I stated earlier this week that I am excited about the winter aspects of this developing pattern and I will stand steadfastly by that statement. I think this will be a very serviceable winter and much better than anything we have seen in the past 3-4 years. If I had to throw out something right now, (knowing full well we are maybe only maybe 60% through the development phase) I would say we have 10% chance of 10 inches or less of winter precip; a 70% percent chance of between 14-20 inches and maybe a 30% chance of over 20 inches with at least 2 decent arctic air outbreaks. I am personally convinced there is enough evidence in this LRC so far to hit those percentages. Of course, there is at least a 50% chance I will be sitting here in March wearing a clown suit and eating crow!!! 🙂

    One thing I think that will be interesting is to see how far these waves in the NW will be to dig further south and west in the winter cycles. So far, they are mostly digging to about Salina and then tracking east…for us to get a good snow, they will need to drop to the Oklahoma Panhandle or maybe even west Texas and then move NE. Historically we can get good snows from these types of systems but they need to drop/dig much further south and west. This could be an issue.

    Another point is the spit flow that developed around the 16th of October…how will the southern stream play out in later cycles and will the northern stream be a bit stronger so we have cold air in place.

    A third random thought is the ridge we are seeing right now that looks to be from LA to about Banff, Canada. It would be nice if that could be about 100 miles further west as it would maybe allow some of these waves to drop further south and west or maybe even a wave to come into southern California. Can this ridge be 100-200 miles further west?

    Finally, we do have one 4 corners system so far in this LRC and while it may well be a snow to rain event (especially if it comes out in pieces) it is something for sure to watch. If it stays all frozen in the winter cycles, it could be the biggest winter event we have had since the blizzard of 2011. One thing I am 100% sure of this system is that the models are going to have a different solution each run for this and it is going to drive this blog nuts!!! Also there are two waves on its heels that could be very good snow producers as well.

    One final final thought…..while this may be a serviceable winter LRC, I think it is very very likely this could be an exciting LRC for the spring and summer. Even the wave from this morning could be a much bigger rain producer in June or even August and plus the NW flow we are seeing…..

    Have a great weekend everyone….excited to see how these next two weeks play out and am very happy that from all appearances we have a much more exciting LRC than the previous 3-4 years.

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  6. Tony November 2, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    Glad to see chances for precip. Already better than last LRC

  7. Urbanity November 2, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

    If the upper flow doesn’t buckle to the west of Kansas we won’t get anything decent, there are no model runs showing this happening, and if you consider that the early October storms were just during the transition period then I don’t see this year being any different than previous years. These little NW clippers won’t carry moisture this winter south of Nebraska as the atmosphere becomes very dry. Show me a low in the SW coming out in the next 2 weeks or this winter will be yet another bust.

    In reference to Bill’s comments, I guess I’m not sold yet that the early October system is a fixture in the new LRC. Has Gary confirmed in his opinion that the Oct 5-9th system is part of the new LRC?

    • Terry November 2, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

      Yes Oct 5 to 9th storm is part of the new LRC this year. LRC started on Oct 6th

      • Gary November 2, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

        First of all, That October storm was actually a very large trough with many functional waves. Secondly, the new GFS has accumulating snow one week from today. Interesting developments to monitor for sure .

        • Clint November 2, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

          Just saw that, GFS has a 5 in snow event! Does the Euro support this at all?

        • Mr. Pete November 2, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

          Time to dig out the snow vest, eh Gary?

          • Gary November 2, 2018 at 1:21 pm - Reply

            I just saw it in my closet. Let’s see if the Euro model has anything close to these GFS solutions. UPDATE: Euro has 10″ of snow.

            • Blue Flash November 2, 2018 at 2:40 pm - Reply

              A new November record! lol

  8. Fred November 2, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    Am I wrong in thinking that the October 5th-October 9th system was related to abundance of moisture from a series of degenerating Pacific hurricanes (Rosa and Sergio)?

  9. REAL HUMEDUDE November 2, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

    Yes but past 3 Early October’s I’ve gotten a huge rainfall, this year actually much less than previous years and we all know how those years ended snow wise. I’m with Keith that I’m not sold on that repeating as it never did any years past. I’m firmly on the fence till I see it repeat it cannot be counted on for future cycles.

    • Fred November 2, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

      That’s my concern. If the early October rain was related to Rosa and Sergio, there won’t be a repeat of increased moisture flow…therefore, we can’t hang our ‘hat’ on the same storm system repeating itself in future cycles. If it does, it definitely won’t have the same amount of moisture to work with. It’s the classic Gary England: “Same but Different” due to seasonal variances.

      • Troy November 2, 2018 at 3:27 pm - Reply

        The one difference though is we actually had a Western trough for a little over a week. That has been non existent in recent years. Yes, things might come together for a big rain for some last year but the kind of dynamics it takes for a major snow usually require a Western trough. I am not guaranteeing anything but this years start to the LRC did have a different pattern than the past couple years.

        By the way I see the latest Euro has 6-8″ across KS into MO about 6 days from now. First time its really showed that so not sure if it will continue. Some agreement from the GFS at least.

  10. Anonymous November 2, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

    Geez, now you wishcasters will be blowing this blog up for the next week. The blog of modelitis. Wishcaster delight. Any mention of a fantasy storm 7-14 days out and everyone loses their collective minds.

    • Heat Miser November 2, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

      Apparently not an LRC believer

    • LYITC41 November 2, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

      What’s fun is when it doesn’t happen after all the excitement and wish casting. Hopefully just a good soaking rain. Also still lots of leaves on the trees, we’ll see how much everyone’s loving it if their power’s been out for 3 or 4 days.

    • Snow Miser November 2, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

      Ugh, I hope that holds off for another week.

    • Heat Miser November 2, 2018 at 2:58 pm - Reply

      That’s a jim dandy

  11. Stl78(winon,mn) November 2, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    Lol..the snow crazies will b goin nuts with the recent gfs and fv3 runs. Stay calm. Hundreds more solutions to follow.

  12. Kurt November 2, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    Yes many solutions and not sure that’s a good solution if the trend is for these systems to dig south like that, it could leave us with cold and dry, with a very sharp snow no snow cutoff. I could care less about snow, we need meaningful precip as our drought isn’t over up here yet, they just stop emphasizing the drought when the growing season ends.

    • A1hoops November 2, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

      Wow! This season is going to be “only 7 days away” compared to last years 10 days away quote lol

  13. Stl78(winon,mn) November 2, 2018 at 12:50 pm - Reply

    It will most likely go north imo but who knows right. I dont want it up here yet. Once it falls thats normally it for the yr up here, white till may. Need to clean gutters and put up Xmas lights before the snow sets in.

  14. Frankie November 2, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

    Both GFS models show 5-7 inches, and Gary just commented the EURO shows 10…

    We might have to start paying attention to this one… Only a week out. Plenty of model runs to go.

  15. f00dl3 November 2, 2018 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_180927_00.gif

    Can’t really hide the similarities of that week, pattern length disclosure or not it’s just maps and the similarities are all there.

  16. Mike (OP) November 2, 2018 at 6:26 pm - Reply
    • Three7s November 2, 2018 at 7:00 pm - Reply

      Obvious fantasy, but man that would be pretty epic to watch.

      • Mike (OP) November 2, 2018 at 7:03 pm - Reply

        Keep in mind KC has never had a 10” snowstorm in the month November.

        • snowflakeparkville November 2, 2018 at 8:16 pm - Reply

          KC has never had 10″ total in the month of November!

    • blue flash November 2, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

      Yeah, and 12 degrees that night. What have they been smoking?

      • snowflakeparkville November 2, 2018 at 8:45 pm - Reply

        Actually, the 12 degrees is possible. 1F recorded on November 8, 1991.

        • blue flash November 2, 2018 at 9:14 pm - Reply

          That would be devastating, given that we haven’t even yet had a hard freeze in the city.

    • Heat Miser November 2, 2018 at 9:54 pm - Reply

      Crazy!

  17. KS Jones November 2, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    The low temperature hasn’t dropped below 32° out this way, but our forecast shows that will change next Wednesday night.
    WeatherUnderground predicts we’ll get from 1″ to 3″ of snow with a high temperature of 43° and a low of 26° next Thursday, but the NWS says Thursday will be mostly sunny with a high of 49° and a low of 30°.
    September was our wettest month (7.35″). October came in second (7.08″). Most of that rain came in the first few days of both months. June was our third wettest month (6.72″), but that rain came during 9 events that were spread out evenly through the whole month.

  18. REAL HUMEDUDE November 2, 2018 at 8:51 pm - Reply

    Could make for a pretty interesting Deer season!

    • Rodney November 2, 2018 at 9:50 pm - Reply

      I’m hunting up in Pike Co on family farm in NE MO, would love to see snow, hunting over a cut corn field in a covered stand. Bring on the snow ❄️

    • KS Jones November 2, 2018 at 11:02 pm - Reply

      I have a trail-cam on a game trail that follows a contour along the base of the bluff 50′ east of our house, and an eight-point buck came sauntering along that trail yesterday. It was the same buck that was in our yard munching flowers last week. Nothing spectacular, but his rack has a good spread. Most of the recent activity on the game trail has been from does, coyotes and bobcats. Does and their young are daily visitors, and I’ve frightened several 6-pt bucks while cutting tall cedars in the past week, so it looks like it will be an average deer season out this way.

  19. f00dl3 November 3, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    Fact of the matter is 3 powerhouse storms by Nov 19th. If we don’t get our first inch by then then I think we will have less than 10″ of snow this winter. If we get 5″ by then we will probably have ~25″ of snow this winter. If we get 10″ by Thanksgiving we will probably have 50″ of snow this winter.

  20. Stepheningardner November 3, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    It didn’t snow significantly in the big years 2010, 2009 and we still had lots of snow… in reality we shouldn’t see snow till December.. I will however take it early 🙂

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