Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

/Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is close to having an eleven inches of rain during this month of October.  A few spots have had over 15 inches of rain within the KC metro area.

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A storm system is developing this morning and rain will begin to form soon.  A surface cyclone has been tracking across southern Kansas overnight into early this morning, and a warm front, or really a stationary front is located north and west of KC. It will become a cold front and surge southeast later today. While these surface conditions change, rain will develop, increase, and then shift southeast out of the area.  Here is a look at this mornings surface map:

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Kansas City is on the warm side of this warm front that has set up to the northwest of the city.  This front will begin moving southeast in a few hours in response to this developing weak storm system.  When it begins moving southeast, it will become a cold front and cooler air will arrive later today. It was in the 60s this morning as of 7 AM, and before sunrise.  There was a bit of a red sky this morning, so “red sky in the morning, sailor take warning” will apply. The clouds were thin and high, cirrus clouds, this morning.  Low clouds will be forming as moisture increases from the south and we get some lifting from this upper level disturbance.  By later this morning into early this afternoon an area of rain will be increasing over KC, at least this is what I am expecting as there was nothing at all on radar when I was writing this blog entry.

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This is an interesting little setup over the next five days.  There is a fast moving system that will drop overhead Thursday night into early Friday with a chance of showers, and then a stronger system will likely track by over the weekend, with another system early next week.  The pattern is becoming quite progressive and fast moving, and the models look different every day.  The LRC is in the middle of its setting up period, and we have a lot more pattern to monitor before making any conclusions.  Here is a surface forecast map valid Saturday night.  Note:  Saturday night is the time change where we fall back one hour, and gain an hour.  This map shows a spinning area of rain and snow to our north, mostly rain, however, that would move across KC in a band Saturday night.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Thickening clouds with rain increasing. The rain will develop overhead, and then end from the northwest later today. The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop this evening. High:  64°
  • Tonight: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.  Low:  47°
  • Wednesday (Halloween):  Trick or treat!  It looks spooky nice with a cloudy sky and a slight chance of showers.  High:  55°

Thank you for voting KSHB-TV as the best local TV station, and I won a couple of categories too, so thank you very much.  I did lose Best Local Personality to a cat, however.

Best Of KC

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-10-31T08:13:09+00:00October 30th, 2018|General|35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. Stl78(winon,mn) October 30, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

    Thx for your continued efforts Gary and for opening the blog up for comments once again! Gary, how much stock do u put into solar activity or rather solar minimum?

  2. Three7s October 30, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    The amount of rain we’ve gotten this month is pretty misleading. Most of that came in one storm.

    • snowflakeparkville October 30, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

      See, now we just have to hope that storm repeats every cycle.

    • Heat Miser October 30, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

      multiple days, multiple waves. In Lawrence there were several storm before that “big storm” two…giving up a total of nearly 3 inches if I remember correctly…Oct was awesome.

    • Mr. Pete October 30, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

      Over the course of ten different days here in Prairie Village

  3. Bill in Lawrence October 30, 2018 at 8:24 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Tuesday to you sir!!!

    Many congrats on the Best of KC Awards….so well deserved!!!!

    I am personally excited about this developing pattern…it may not be epic so to speak but I am convinced it will be very serviceable indeed. Still a lot of time left but so far the fish on the stringer are too bad at all.

    Have a great Tuesday everyone!!

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  4. blue flash October 30, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Well if they’re opening the nominations to pets, maybe next year Sunny the Weather Dog should be considered!

  5. Anonymous October 30, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    That is exactly where you lose everyone: The 10-inch rain event will NOT repeat. You will try to convince all of the non-believers that, “it’s the same but different” or, “it’s right there, it’s just not producing this time through”. BSRC.

    Cherry pick an event and then try to make it fit the next “cycle”. Why doesn’t everything else repeat? I would think that an event as significant as the 2nd coldest April and 2nd hottest May would have repeated….somewhere? Exactly – it didn’t. BSRC.

    • Adam October 30, 2018 at 11:33 am - Reply

      Grow some coconuts and post with your real name.

  6. Terry October 30, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

    It been a good LRC I’m happy and sure you guys will Agree.

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE October 30, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

    It’s almost November, and MO Deer season for rifles will open 11/10. GFS is sorta back and forth with a major system that weekend on some runs and others it’s gone.
    Questions:
    1) IS EURO on board with storm during 11/10-11/12?
    2) has LRC offered any clues into that time period?

    200K + will be in the woods that weekend, it’s a big forecast for us hunters, any insight would be most appreciated

  8. f00dl3 October 30, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

    BTW – The LRC may mean the early OCT rain event would coincide with a major storm around Nov 13 / GFS prediction hint hint.

    • Jason October 30, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

      why you gotta ruin my contest prediction?

    • Gary October 30, 2018 at 11:49 am - Reply

      We are not going to be discussing cycle length in this blog. Just so you we lay out some ground rules. The latest GFS is quite fascinating as the pattern is still evolving.

  9. BSMike October 30, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Could you imagine the anticipation if we were waiting on snow to develop on radar today!!!! People would be losing it. lol

  10. A1hoops October 30, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

    If the current GFS for next week plays out then we could have back to back big snows here in the next cycle when it returns

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 30, 2018 at 1:58 pm - Reply

      Maybe…….. usually first storm wipes out all the available moisture and second storm busts. Not impossible but can’t think of many big back to back snows around here. I mean back to back as in less than 3 days apart, not a week apart which is quite a bit of difference

      • Clint October 30, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

        2011 was the last time I can remember having back to back storms like that. Seemed like it snowed everyday for awhile.

  11. BSMike October 30, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    what is next week looking like? Link?

  12. BSMike October 30, 2018 at 2:47 pm - Reply

    Gary is not giving out anymore info on the LRC especially the cycle length. It’s obvious his blogs are not in depth as they use to be. IDK what exactly has happened but you can tell by his wording in the blog, it’s different! I really enjoyed the in depth look into things like the cycle length but it’s not that hard to figure out next time we have a 3 day storm just count back.

    • Gary October 30, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

      The blogs will go in-depth, when we finally get something to go in-depth about. Seriously, last year was just horrible in trying to explain “nothing” happening all of the time. Hopefully this pattern will be different. We have something quite special with the LRC. The critics think otherwise. We are going to have a fun place to share in this weather experience right here. The blog is going to be a fun, educational experience for all of us. That is the goal and the rules to keep it that way will be enforced. If you see a comment gone, then read your own comment and you will see why, and I don’t mean you Mike.

      • BSMike October 30, 2018 at 9:18 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary for the positive feed back. We all love this site except for a certain few. Appreciate you my friend.

  13. Brad October 30, 2018 at 3:25 pm - Reply

    Disappointing so far from the afternoon euro that just came in

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018103012/kansas/snow-depth-in/20181109-1200z.html

    • A1hoops October 30, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

      Looks pretty decent in terms of moisture to me from Topeka eastward?

  14. Frankie October 30, 2018 at 7:21 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018103018/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

    FV3 for November 14. A ways away but there have been signs on the models that there could be something…

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 30, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

      That’s what I’m talking about for deer season, that is a huge system. Haven’t see them like that here in awhile

    • Johnny October 30, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

      I picked Nov 14 for the contest. Lets do it

  15. KS Jones October 31, 2018 at 6:02 am - Reply

    This website has forecast maps, as well as reasoning for the predictions. I hope it is wrong.
    http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/
     2018-2019 WINTER OUTLOOK
    Christopher Nunley | October 29, 2018
    (Kansas City, KS; Omaha, NE; Rapid City, SD; Casper, WY; Billings, MT; Fargo, ND; Des Moines, IA; Chicago, IL; Columbus, OH): This region will be characterized by temperatures well below normal and snowy conditions. Several winter storms and brutal cold are possible.

    • Mike October 31, 2018 at 7:00 am - Reply

      A cold and snowy winter would be fantastic!!!

    • Gary October 31, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      This is a very good write up, and of course they leave out the biggest factor, the LRC. We will learn a lot more about this pattern in the coming weeks.

      Gary

    • LYITC41 October 31, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

      The theory wouldn’t make it any more accurate than anything else that was presented. There’s no way to know, reliably, this far out.

  16. LYITC41 October 31, 2018 at 6:46 am - Reply

    Interesting writeup. Based largely on modeling and climatology it very well could do this, or not. Like you, I hope not.

  17. Clint October 31, 2018 at 7:14 am - Reply

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