Close To Eleven Inches Of Rain This Month

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Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is close to having an eleven inches of rain during this month of October.  A few spots have had over 15 inches of rain within the KC metro area.

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A storm system is developing this morning and rain will begin to form soon.  A surface cyclone has been tracking across southern Kansas overnight into early this morning, and a warm front, or really a stationary front is located north and west of KC. It will become a cold front and surge southeast later today. While these surface conditions change, rain will develop, increase, and then shift southeast out of the area.  Here is a look at this mornings surface map:

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Kansas City is on the warm side of this warm front that has set up to the northwest of the city.  This front will begin moving southeast in a few hours in response to this developing weak storm system.  When it begins moving southeast, it will become a cold front and cooler air will arrive later today. It was in the 60s this morning as of 7 AM, and before sunrise.  There was a bit of a red sky this morning, so “red sky in the morning, sailor take warning” will apply. The clouds were thin and high, cirrus clouds, this morning.  Low clouds will be forming as moisture increases from the south and we get some lifting from this upper level disturbance.  By later this morning into early this afternoon an area of rain will be increasing over KC, at least this is what I am expecting as there was nothing at all on radar when I was writing this blog entry.

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This is an interesting little setup over the next five days.  There is a fast moving system that will drop overhead Thursday night into early Friday with a chance of showers, and then a stronger system will likely track by over the weekend, with another system early next week.  The pattern is becoming quite progressive and fast moving, and the models look different every day.  The LRC is in the middle of its setting up period, and we have a lot more pattern to monitor before making any conclusions.  Here is a surface forecast map valid Saturday night.  Note:  Saturday night is the time change where we fall back one hour, and gain an hour.  This map shows a spinning area of rain and snow to our north, mostly rain, however, that would move across KC in a band Saturday night.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Thickening clouds with rain increasing. The rain will develop overhead, and then end from the northwest later today. The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop this evening. High:  64°
  • Tonight: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.  Low:  47°
  • Wednesday (Halloween):  Trick or treat!  It looks spooky nice with a cloudy sky and a slight chance of showers.  High:  55°

Thank you for voting KSHB-TV as the best local TV station, and I won a couple of categories too, so thank you very much.  I did lose Best Local Personality to a cat, however.

Best Of KC

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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LYITC41GaryClintMikeKS Jones Recent comment authors
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Clint
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Clint

Late next week could be exciting.

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LYITC41
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LYITC41

Interesting writeup. Based largely on modeling and climatology it very well could do this, or not. Like you, I hope not.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This website has forecast maps, as well as reasoning for the predictions. I hope it is wrong.
http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/
 2018-2019 WINTER OUTLOOK
Christopher Nunley | October 29, 2018
(Kansas City, KS; Omaha, NE; Rapid City, SD; Casper, WY; Billings, MT; Fargo, ND; Des Moines, IA; Chicago, IL; Columbus, OH): This region will be characterized by temperatures well below normal and snowy conditions. Several winter storms and brutal cold are possible.

Mike
Guest
Mike

A cold and snowy winter would be fantastic!!!

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

The theory wouldn’t make it any more accurate than anything else that was presented. There’s no way to know, reliably, this far out.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

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FV3 for November 14. A ways away but there have been signs on the models that there could be something…

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

That’s what I’m talking about for deer season, that is a huge system. Haven’t see them like that here in awhile

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I picked Nov 14 for the contest. Lets do it

Brad
Guest
Brad

Disappointing so far from the afternoon euro that just came in

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018103012/kansas/snow-depth-in/20181109-1200z.html

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Looks pretty decent in terms of moisture to me from Topeka eastward?

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Gary is not giving out anymore info on the LRC especially the cycle length. It’s obvious his blogs are not in depth as they use to be. IDK what exactly has happened but you can tell by his wording in the blog, it’s different! I really enjoyed the in depth look into things like the cycle length but it’s not that hard to figure out next time we have a 3 day storm just count back.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

what is next week looking like? Link?

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

If the current GFS for next week plays out then we could have back to back big snows here in the next cycle when it returns

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Maybe…….. usually first storm wipes out all the available moisture and second storm busts. Not impossible but can’t think of many big back to back snows around here. I mean back to back as in less than 3 days apart, not a week apart which is quite a bit of difference

Clint
Guest
Clint

2011 was the last time I can remember having back to back storms like that. Seemed like it snowed everyday for awhile.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Could you imagine the anticipation if we were waiting on snow to develop on radar today!!!! People would be losing it. lol

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

BTW – The LRC may mean the early OCT rain event would coincide with a major storm around Nov 13 / GFS prediction hint hint.

Jason
Guest
Jason

why you gotta ruin my contest prediction?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s almost November, and MO Deer season for rifles will open 11/10. GFS is sorta back and forth with a major system that weekend on some runs and others it’s gone.
Questions:
1) IS EURO on board with storm during 11/10-11/12?
2) has LRC offered any clues into that time period?

200K + will be in the woods that weekend, it’s a big forecast for us hunters, any insight would be most appreciated

Terry
Guest
Terry

It been a good LRC I’m happy and sure you guys will Agree.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

That is exactly where you lose everyone: The 10-inch rain event will NOT repeat. You will try to convince all of the non-believers that, “it’s the same but different” or, “it’s right there, it’s just not producing this time through”. BSRC.

Cherry pick an event and then try to make it fit the next “cycle”. Why doesn’t everything else repeat? I would think that an event as significant as the 2nd coldest April and 2nd hottest May would have repeated….somewhere? Exactly – it didn’t. BSRC.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Grow some coconuts and post with your real name.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Well if they’re opening the nominations to pets, maybe next year Sunny the Weather Dog should be considered!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Happy Tuesday to you sir!!!

Many congrats on the Best of KC Awards….so well deserved!!!!

I am personally excited about this developing pattern…it may not be epic so to speak but I am convinced it will be very serviceable indeed. Still a lot of time left but so far the fish on the stringer are too bad at all.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

The amount of rain we’ve gotten this month is pretty misleading. Most of that came in one storm.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

See, now we just have to hope that storm repeats every cycle.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

multiple days, multiple waves. In Lawrence there were several storm before that “big storm” two…giving up a total of nearly 3 inches if I remember correctly…Oct was awesome.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Over the course of ten different days here in Prairie Village

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx for your continued efforts Gary and for opening the blog up for comments once again! Gary, how much stock do u put into solar activity or rather solar minimum?