Friday Weather Thoughts

/Friday Weather Thoughts

Friday Weather Thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

It’s Friday!  TGIF!   The weather pattern is quite fascinating as the new LRC unfolds before our eyes in the next few weeks.  Be careful about making any conclusions at this point. Remember Kansas City has had four straight years with very bad patterns for us weather enthusiasts. The total snowfall for the past four years has been around 30″. Divide that number by four and you get around 7″ per winter.  That is as if we have been moved to Oklahoma City, where they average close to that number.  So, hang on. There is a lot more of this pattern for us to experience, four to six more weeks.

Today:

1

A low pressure area is tracking north of the Great Lakes.  There is a weak wave cyclone associated with this system, and there is a trough (black dashed line) moving across the Great Lakes extending southwest to just north of KC by this evening. This will allow for another big warm up today, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it gets close to 70 degrees in spots.  That cold front (blue line) is tracking across the USA/Canada border tonight, and by Saturday afternoon this front will be moving through. The wave cyclone will be producing a nice snowstorm in eastern Canada.

2

We are in a dry pattern at the moment, even though it did rain a bit this morning.  But, are we really in a dry pattern? We have had over 10″ of rain this month already, so it had to dry out a bit.  What lies ahead?

3

This next map, above, shows the series of storm systems developing in the westerly flow.  The LRC actually describes the flow over all of the Northern Hemisphere from the equator to the poles, and is primarily concentrated in the westerly belt. This model is one of many solutions for what happens around day 10.  The models are all over the place every few hours, as they should be. Eventually Weather2020 will KNOW when the models are right and when they are wrong.  Right now the pattern is still setting up, as it began just two weeks ago.

It will be great weekend of weather for the KC Marathon, the Kansas Speedway activities, and the Sunday Night Football game. Go Chiefs. Big game! I think if they win, they are on their way to 13-3 or 14-2. If they lose, 11-5 is possible, or even 10-6. So, this is a big game.

Have great day.

Gary

2018-10-20T09:24:13+00:00October 19th, 2018|General|200 Comments

200 Comments

  1. A1hoops October 19, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    According to the GFS model overnight next weekend kc could see its first winter storm

  2. LYITC41 October 19, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Well, I’m a weather enthusiast, and I’ve loved the last 4 winters, just depends on your POV. Hopefully this will be year 5 with less than 10″ of snow.

    • Heat Miser October 19, 2018 at 12:54 pm - Reply

      A weather enthusiast is generally excited to experience all sorts of weather, including snow. So I’m thinking you aren’t a weather enthusiast since the last four winters have been mostly snowless and you are good with that.

      • LYITC41 October 19, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

        Sorry, but no. Snow sucks. Oh sure the dynamics that have to all come together for snow or any other phenomenon are fascinating, and that’s where I’m an enthusiast. I’m not “enthusiastic” about a nasty 12″ snowstorm that paralyzes my city, an ice storm that knocks out your power for a week, or a tornado or hurricane that destroys lives. If you’re enthusiastic about a 12″ snowstorm I hope it happens-where you live.

        • Heat Miser October 19, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

          Well first of all, I recommend you lose the drama…it’s not workin’ for ya. Secondly, weather enthusiasts may not want to be in the middle of a tornado or be in a crippling ice storm, but that’s just extreme…not the basis for a sound argument. Most weather enthusiast would enjoy a good snow storm or two, not the painfully low snow winters like the last four in KC

  3. BSMike October 19, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Is that a blocking pattern setting up again? If so that is good for us!

  4. NoBeachHere October 19, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Why did you have to add, “ 10 days out”, to anything lol

  5. Jim October 19, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    I’m confused. A new pattern sets up every year, why do the last 4 matter? Are you saying to not trust what the LRC set-up is telling me? Are your predictions going to be more conservative based on the last 4 years?

    • Gary October 19, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

      Jim,

      I wouldn’t say I am conservative with my forecasts. I will always predict what I believe will happen. The last four years also were unique patterns, and they did not produce much snow. We will see if this pattern is capable of it. I do not know yet.

  6. Mike October 19, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply
  7. Troy October 19, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    We did start the pattern with a trough in the West at least.

  8. George October 19, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

    Gary mentioned that our last 4 winters have been more Oklahoma City like than our “normal” winters. I have mentioned before that in 2012 the USDA updated the plant hardiness zone map for North America and that the updated chart moved the zone that used to include OK (zone 6 & 7) north and now most of Kansas is in zone 6 instead of the colder zone 5.

    Hopefully this link will work https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/new-usda-plant-hardiness-zone-map-for-gardeners-shows-a-warming-climat.html

    Just sayin

    • Richard October 19, 2018 at 2:10 pm - Reply

      Yep. The hardiness zone did change.
      For quite a few yrs I noticed.
      I have been saying we are the new Southwest.
      But that might be good for bigger snows too when they do come.

  9. Terry October 19, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

    I think this new LRC pattern So far in regards to what rain we’ve had so far the first part Of October we been in the right spot so far with rains . So I say yes it’s been a good for us and Here’s for it to continue.

  10. LYITC41 October 19, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

    So far.

  11. Terry October 19, 2018 at 1:01 pm - Reply
    • Richard October 19, 2018 at 2:15 pm - Reply

      Terry
      So does that mean negative AO ?
      Its the first AO chart I have seen this year.

      • Terry October 19, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

        Yes Richard It’s been showing it going AO chart negative For a few days now for at the end of the month Someone else has mentioned it before on here.

        • Richard October 19, 2018 at 3:50 pm - Reply

          👍 Thanks Terry
          I missed it on here before

          • Terry October 19, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

            Welcome

        • Mike October 19, 2018 at 3:59 pm - Reply

          That is correct Terry. I have been saying that it is showing a negative trend for the end of October. Now we just need to wait and see what happens. I like the fact that the AO is trending negative. I can post what it means for some people or you can just google the effects of a negative AO but if you like Winter the more negative the better.

          Mike

  12. Snow Miser October 19, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply
    • LYITC41 October 19, 2018 at 2:18 pm - Reply

      Dream on-not happening.

      • Heat Miser October 19, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

        If you hate snow, you are on the wrong blog buddy.

      • Terry October 19, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

        Yeah wrong blog !

      • Three7s October 19, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

        I guess there are multiple types of wish-casting…..

  13. Rod October 19, 2018 at 1:45 pm - Reply

    Things could get exciting around Halloween if this pans out. Heavy rain & some snow on the back side. Time to watch but maybe another good storm in the developing LRC.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018101912&fh=6

    • Heat Miser October 19, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

      That would be awesome!

  14. BSMike October 19, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

    Looks I’m putting in for vacation that day to be in the tree bow hunting

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 19, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

      That day will suck!
      The day of storm they are bedded, best bet is the day before (although I bet it’s really windy), or the day after it moves out post cold front. I’ve sat during a big snow storm thinking I was going to be in deer city central, and I nor any of my 4 hunting partners hunting other spots on the farm saw a single deer. They are especially leery of first major snow I think, I think they bed even though ground is all cold and snowy because I sure don’t see them out while it’s Snowing. Now, After the snow is the magic period, once temps have crashed. If wind is still the next day you will see more deer than any hunt ever

  15. Urbanity October 19, 2018 at 3:49 pm - Reply

    There’s always a trough out west during the winter, that is when it normally develops as a quasi-permanent feature. In the past four years it has been stronger than normal, remember the incredible heights last year?

    Like I said, October going out like a lamb, early November it must happen or we’ll have a similar year as the last four…probably will have more rain/snow but nothing to write home about.

    • Richard October 19, 2018 at 3:54 pm - Reply

      So far I think it has been wetter than last October.
      But we are drying out like last year.
      That trough digging further south is a good sign. 4 corners magic !

      • JoeK October 19, 2018 at 5:08 pm - Reply

        Richard,

        How is the weather in Ireland?

  16. snowflakeparkville October 19, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply
  17. Mr. Pete October 21, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

    Is there some reason why the blogs are locked for comments now? Not much of a blog if you can’t comment.

  18. Frankie October 21, 2018 at 1:31 pm - Reply

    Yeah, what’s going on with the blog comments? Hope this is just an error with the site or something.

  19. Terry October 21, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    So what’s up with the blog not be unable to post on it for this weekend from Jeff? How pissed of who ?

  20. Mr. Pete October 21, 2018 at 11:26 pm - Reply

    I guess the blogs will just be information only going forward. No comments allowed.

  21. Terry October 22, 2018 at 7:43 am - Reply

    Gary if you see this How come we can’t comment on the blog anymore and I don’t see the snowflake contest Link ? What’s wrong with the Blog now

  22. Snow Miser October 22, 2018 at 7:45 am - Reply

    Has commenting been disabled? This is the last blog we can comment on.

  23. Frankie October 22, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    Being able to comment is the best part about this blog. I hope this is not permanent…

  24. Richard October 22, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Here is the link to the sniwflake contest on Gary’s facebook page this morning.

    https://www.kshb.com/about-us/contests/enter-the-snowflake-contest

    Does anyone know his email address to tell him about commenrs closed ? They are closed on the kshb blog too.

  25. Anonymous October 22, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    Should have known that Richard was already on here wondering why he couldn’t do any hero worship with Gary. Stop stalking dude.

    • Richard October 22, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

      Stalking :
      I listen to sports radio 810 from 7-9 M-F to listen to the Border Patrol, and whadya know, there is Gary at 8 a.m.!
      I come to read the 2020 blog, like hundreds of others, and whadya know, Gary or Jeff puts their name at the bottom of the writeup !
      Motive :
      Being called a stalker gives me that warm fuzzy feeling.
      And being stalked by Anonymous just makes my experience on here even better !
      Bring it on Anonymous 💕

  26. Anonymous October 22, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    And Terry, of course.

  27. Heat Miser October 22, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    I tweeted him. He needs to address what’s going on.

    • Mr. Pete October 22, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      It won’t work. I’m told (sadly) that all comments have been permanently turned off. Gonna leave it at that.

      • Snow Miser October 22, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

        Oh man, that sucks. 🙁

        • Mr. Pete October 22, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

          Yeah I guess farewell to all of you. It’s been a lot of fun.

          • Heat Miser October 22, 2018 at 3:07 pm - Reply

            how bizzare…I wonder why he would do that? It’s kind of insulting to the bloggers to just turn it off and not even announce that he’s doing it.

            • Mr. Pete October 22, 2018 at 3:54 pm - Reply

              I wasn’t happy about the no announcement either. Cold Turkey. I am hoping that in the coming days Gary will talk about this more in the blog and also provide some new or maybe even better options for us. I explained that I really appreciated all of the meaningful dialogue that gets shared here, and how much that will be missed. This is literally one of my biggest hobbies, so I am very sad. Feel free to reach out to Gary in any way you can, be it Facebook, Twitter, etc – and share your thoughts. I think he will listen. Can’t hurt.

              Mr. Pete

      • Richard October 22, 2018 at 3:14 pm - Reply

        Mr. Pete
        So you were told by Gary ?
        Did he give a reason ?

      • Frankie October 22, 2018 at 5:35 pm - Reply

        How were you able to contact Gary about it? What exactly was his reason for disabling comments?

    • Jason in LJMO October 22, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

      Heat Miser
      lol
      Like you are in a position to tell Gary what he needs to address ?
      I think you need to check your credentials. And your insufferable ego.
      I have seen the childish back and forths on this blog for months.
      No wonder they closed comments.

    • Richard October 22, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

      Heat
      lol
      Like you are in a position to tell Gary what he needs to address ?
      I think you need to check your credentials. And your ego.

      • Frankie October 22, 2018 at 3:37 pm - Reply

        Maybe this is part of the reason why comments are disabled. This turned into a drama filled blog rather than weather talk. A lot of us used this blog to really better unsterstand the weather and discuss the pattern. This was the best thing for weather enthusiasts in KC. But it was intended for weather discussion…

        • Richard October 22, 2018 at 3:50 pm - Reply

          Thats why I was here. To learn about the lrc.
          And to read comments from those who have a good understanding of models, etc.
          Not to get put down every time I made a comment. Like now.

          I doubt the comments were turned off because of certain individuals.
          Gary made the decision because he is in a new chapter in life. Busier. Too busy to answer questions.
          But, yeah, to turn them off does not seem right. Even the blog writeups have seemed shorter.
          He knows how much most of us enjoy the weather discussions. But maybe something else is going on in his life.
          I will miss reading the discussions.
          So long fellow bloggers.

          • Heat Miser October 22, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

            lol..you have no idea what Gary’s thinking. I’ll miss the blog but I sure wont miss your drama. rofl

        • JoeK October 22, 2018 at 9:14 pm - Reply

          Frankie,

          Your comments are accurate. It was in fact disabled as a result of the hand full of bloggers that constantly cause issues and are negative. A few always ruin it for the rest.

      • Heat Miser October 22, 2018 at 8:05 pm - Reply

        Lose the drama Richie Rich….you might have to go get a life now. ROFL

  28. sierravista October 22, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

    Moving on if that is, indeed, the case. It’s nice to read other people’s comments, as well.

  29. Frankie October 22, 2018 at 3:00 pm - Reply

    If comments have really been disabled, let’s all just use this post which we can still comment on to continue the discussion. Our blog discussions and comments are why this blog is as great as it is. Would be an unwise decision to disable them. But we have this post to still use as a discussion board.

    • Snow Miser October 22, 2018 at 3:17 pm - Reply

      It would be nice if, perhaps, he could create a dedicated blog post – stickied at the top – just for comments. Though I suppose it would get really really big after a while.

      I can understand not wanting to deal with the comments – after all a lot of people ask questions he has no time for, and a lot of silly arguments go on, not to mention the trolls – but some of the conversations really do get interesting and add to the experience.

      • Heat Miser October 22, 2018 at 8:14 pm - Reply

        Love Gary, but that is just uncharacteristically unprofessional and disrespectful to just close down comments with no explanation. It’s rather bizarre if you ask me.

        • Richard October 22, 2018 at 8:39 pm - Reply

          Gary is not disrespectful. That would be you.
          Who are you to disrespect Gary by saying that about him.

          Not only did you tweet Gary you tweeted Jeff about the comments.
          And, not surprisingly, neither one of them liked your post, nor replied to you. ROFL

          Talk about stalking and disrespect. Who was it that raked Gary over the coals when he missed the groundhog day snow. You were all over him about it.
          Now you won’t have this blog to throw your weight around.
          Buh-bye Robert
          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

          Robert Racy
          @czardonkey
          ·
          Oct 21
          Replying to
          @glezak
          Hey Gary – FYI the comments section of the Weather 2020 blog was not functioning yesterday, and amazingly that’s still the case today. Might wanna get that fixed or there are going to be a lot of ticked off weather bloggers to contend with. lol

          Robert Racy
          @czardonkey
          Replying to
          @JeffPennerKSHB
          and
          @41actionnews
          Jeff, the comments section in the Weather 2020 website was off yesterday, and amazingly it’s still off today. You might want to get that fixed or your gonna have a lot of pissed of weather bloggers. lol

          • JoeK October 22, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

            Richard,

            Do you live in a Glass House? You have repeatedly attacked Gary and all on here have been witness to it so I am baffled by your remarks to Heat. A few examples, Gary’s comments regarding NWS use of severe weather warnings, Gary’s lack of response to your redundant questioning and the Table Rock boat tragedy………Need I go on? How is the weather in Ireland? If I recall, you were to travel there on the 15th?

          • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:30 pm - Reply

            Yes dummy, of course I tweeted them..that’s what I said. What is your point…lol..are you on crack. And also, you’ve got waaaaay too much time on your hands to me searching out my tweets…lol…wtf is wrong with you. Holy crap you are weird little dude.

  30. Tony October 22, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

    Way to go losers

    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:34 pm - Reply

      lol

  31. Frankie October 23, 2018 at 7:24 am - Reply
    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

      Cool!

  32. BSMike October 23, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    I talked to Gary yesterday and I will say this… Certain people on here are just plain jerks! He is on the verge of a break through and he just can’t let that info out for others to use against him any longer.Sad you certain so called fans had to do this SMH!!

    • Johnny October 23, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

      Get off your high horse

    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

      teachers pet…and that’s the polite way to say it

  33. LYITC41 October 23, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    A breakthrough on what? He’s had some success but his theory is nowhere near routinely reliable, key word being routinely. Funny how some seem to have this “connection” to GL, which isn’t so unusual or probably even that hard to do. What’s funny are the ones who like to advertise this, like it’s some kind of big deal to have the local TV wxman’s ear.

  34. Johnny October 23, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    Might as well start his post off “Good morning toddlers” oppose to “Good morning bloggers” since that’s how you guys are treated now

    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

      you are part of you guys you know

  35. Urbanity October 23, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    I would have dumped you guys a long time ago, just saying, I can’t stand most of you (and my comments are not well liked by you most of the time). But enough about my thoughts.

    Gary gave his bloggers a lot of attention, and if it’s true that the comments are down for good it’s because you guys didn’t respect him enough. Gary obviously is an emotional guy, those types feed off positive energy, this blog was becoming mostly negative….and that was because the weather has stunk for 4 years. Many acted like spoiled babies on here, lashing out if they perceived a mistake in the LRC.

    Finally, who cares, really? It’s the weather people! Get close to your loved ones and love them, mother nature is a witch. Peace to all this Holiday season.

    • LYITC41 October 23, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

      “Can’t stand most of you”, but, “peace to all this holiday season”? They have medication for what you have. Actually you have dumped the blog before but unfortunately you kept coming back.

      • Urbanity October 23, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

        I didn’t want to be specific, but LYITC41 I was really only talking about you. I was teasing about the “Cant stand most of you”, but i left out the TIC. For the record I left the blog once.

        • LYITC41 October 24, 2018 at 6:16 am - Reply

          I stand corrected, you left once so you came back once, that’s one time to many.

  36. Mr. Pete October 23, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    I really don’t care about breakthroughs, theories etc. I just like to come here to report what I’m seeing and to talk about the weather. Can’t do that anymore.

  37. Terry October 23, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

    So if Gary was having problems with bloggers or Trolls why didnt he block them out and it’s not everyone’s Fault if you can’t stand the heat get out.

    • Miss Jess October 23, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

      I agree… I rarely comment, but love reading the blog and the comments… not fair for those that are polite and just wanting to enjoy the blog.

  38. Mark October 23, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

    He likely shut down the comments here for the same reason he shut down the comments on the KSHB Weatherblog, because a bunch of bozos ruined it with inane comments wholly unrelated to weather.

  39. Rodinkc October 23, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

    Just recently started viewing this site and blog, first time commenting.
    I hope Gary allows comments again. Interesting to say the least.
    There are some valuable insights from you bloggers that I enjoyed reading.

  40. Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    But who is he going to discuss his LRC theory with now? Mabye he just shut down for a while so the trolls would go away.

    • Frankie October 23, 2018 at 12:45 pm - Reply

      Exactly. And to cut the blog off right as the new LRC is taking shape is a bad move. There will be no more discussion about it, which was the best part of the theory.

    • LYITC41 October 23, 2018 at 1:10 pm - Reply

      Not you Bob. And please do, do go away.

    • Mr. Pete October 23, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

      Jeff I am guessing.

  41. Tony October 23, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

    Same group of idiots ruined the KSHB blog. The LRC is a niche theory anyways…..he has had 30 years to get this theory down, and he cant do much better than your local armchair meteorologist.

  42. Urbanity October 23, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

    A KU psychology professor would love this particular blog! lol

    It’s like one flew over the cuckoos nest on here…..

  43. birdieman October 23, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    I’m still worried if Jordan’s lawn/farm is in the drought and if that one dudes creek is dry in Lawrence. Miss the daily updates

  44. Ryan October 23, 2018 at 7:29 pm - Reply

    Does anyone have any ideas as to where we could have a daily comment section w/ models etc? Create a subReddit, wordpress, facebook etc.

  45. L.B October 23, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

    Is it any wonder? This is a bit-h blog! from Hume and his liberal politics to Richard and his incessant boorish behind the back ..im just trying to learn but do not really give a sh-t comments! I can not believe he let it go this long. He is a scientist. Richard and Hume are not. This was never intended to be a place where deranged wanna bee’s could feel like they matter. Richard…..Hume see a DR. their are med’s for you

    • Richard October 23, 2018 at 8:43 pm - Reply

      L.B.
      I do take meds.
      They only go so far in helping loneliness and depression. Add old age into the mix.
      Sometimes they make things worse.
      My apologies to you as well.
      I was typing and did not see yours until I posted mine.

  46. Richard October 23, 2018 at 8:33 pm - Reply

    Not weather related, but need to say something.
    I spoke with my pastor today. Yes, I have a pastor of long standing, but it has been too long reaching out to him.
    Trying to let go of my anger and bitterness in life in general.
    I need to make things right.
    My sincere apologies if I am one of the reasons why comments are closed.
    Those apologies extend to Heat Miser, JoeK, Urbanity, and anyone else who I attacked or vilified.

    And especially Gary. I know I said things these past 2 years that appeared I was attacking you.
    I wasn’t. I believe in the LRC. I am sorry.

    This old man is going to miss the blogger discussions on here.
    I will check back now and then to see if comments open up.
    If they do, and if I am allowed to comment, you will see a gentler kinder Richard.

    If comments don’t open up I think it would be good idea that Ryan has to form a discussion group somewhere online.
    You all have a lot of information to share about our weather.

    Again, I apologize. Especially to Heat Miser. It was wrong for me to post your tweets. Inexcusable.

    • Tony October 23, 2018 at 8:40 pm - Reply

      Who cares…

    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 8:53 pm - Reply

      No worries Richard, I didnt care if you posted my tweets…I just didnt get the point since I has just said I tweeted Gary.

  47. Tony October 23, 2018 at 8:43 pm - Reply

    Alice could see this blog going down the drain. Robert Racy will have to stick to twitter and not this blog for his precious weather updates. Get back to work Robert…don’t waste tax $. I will miss Hume’s “farm” updates from his liberal Shawnee home…btw he doesnt even farm lol…

    • Heat Miser October 23, 2018 at 8:51 pm - Reply

      Whatever will you do now that you cant troll on a weather blog? ROFL

  48. Mr. Pete October 23, 2018 at 10:38 pm - Reply

    Twilight Zone.

  49. Numb3rsGuy October 24, 2018 at 7:36 am - Reply

    After reading the comments above I can see why Gary shut off the comments; too much name calling and bad blood.

    It has been a pleasure sharing my numb3rs with you all. Good luck to you all.

    • Frankie October 24, 2018 at 7:50 am - Reply

      Exactly. Grown men acting like middle schoolers on a weather blog. Cmon people…

  50. Snow Miser October 24, 2018 at 7:45 am - Reply

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I think I’ll mostly miss Bill in Lawrence’s thoughts.

    • Tony October 24, 2018 at 8:01 am - Reply

      Ask him when he wakes up next to you lol

  51. Urbanity October 24, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    Don’t look now but the new LRC is beginning to look a lot like the old LRC. “It’s going to cold, it’s going to be dry, and it’s going to last for the rest of the winter”.

    • Anonymous October 24, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

      Noticed the same thing….another miserable winter lrc

  52. Urbanity October 24, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    BTW – I’m sure Gary will open the comments back up after the new LRC is set, just a feeling.

    • LYITC41 October 24, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

      Don’t give a rat’s rear end if he does or not, why would anyone? Don’t let him jerk you around with this or let it ruin your day.

  53. Anonymous October 24, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply

    Good Wednesday Morning Bloggers. Haven’t been on for awhile. Wondered what was going on, and I saw that the number of comments on this blog kept on increasing. I too had contacted Gary but did not hear back. Glad to know that I was not going bonkers on why I could not comment. So, in looking at the new LRC setup, it looks like we have a good one so far. The western trough with possible closed off low. Remember what Gary said….a closed off low is a weatherman’s woe. Last year, the trough was positioned mostly over the eastern 1/2-1/3 of the country and most of the snow storms rode up along the eastern side of the trough. In the past, when we have had snow, it would usually develop from a low over the southwest that would swing into the 4 corners area or just south of there, followed by a northeast track. The perfect track for the low was to be positioned over the Missouri/Kansas line about 1/2 between KC and Joplin area. We also get some storms from the NW, clipper systems. We have had a few of those too so far this year.

    As for when the LRC started? I believe it started between the weekend of October 5th and the following weekend. We had significant rain the weekend of the 5th, followed by cold and more rain the following weekend. If we ballpark the LRC ~50 days, then this system could return around Thanksgiving weekend.

    Anyways, for another take on weather, you might want to try https://blog.weather.us/ They usually have really good breakdown and discussion of the weather systems, and I believe you can contact them and ask questions.

    Hope we keep this particular blog post alive so we can continue to comment on the weather and the LRC. Hope Gary decides to reopen the blog.

  54. Tim in Lone Jack October 24, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    You know in the short term, why don’t we just create a facebook group and link to his daily entry? We can comment on there and invite Gary to participate. Leave the drama to us so he don’t have to worry about it.

    • DaveC October 24, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

      This is a fantastic idea. I always thought that this blog would be easily mod’d if Gary would have given 1 or 2 trusted active members the ability to police this place. I mentioned in many times back on KSHB, instead of we have what appears a minor temp tamper (weathered this several times through the years) by whoever and they close the comments down. I’d rather see the link to a blog on FB and we then have the group to continue having discussions. I do fear that without the comments this site will lose the #’s ..oh well

    • Mr. Pete October 24, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

      I know I don’t mess with FB – maybe I am just the minority but I am totally up for something.

  55. Rockdoc October 24, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    I just tried entering a comment and it would not take.

  56. KSUstudent October 24, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    If Gary did not want us commenting why would he still be allowing these comments to be posted on this older blog post? Just a thought

  57. Rockdoc October 24, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

    Tried again, and I hope this one posts as well. I hope Gary leaves this particular comment section open since it appears to be the only one that is still functional. It’s too bad that the comment section on other blog pages are shut off.

    Anyways, I noticed that one good feature of this years LRC is the formation of the trough out west. Last year the trough set up was mostly over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the country and the snow storms tended to ride up along the eastern side of the trough. Also, it appears that there may be a closed off low that wants to form in the western trough which could also be a good sign if the low slings out from just south of the 4 corners area and then tracks to the east-northeast. The only question will be if there will be cold air in place from a high P system just to the north near the Canada/US border to bring down cold air, and moisture from Mexico and the gulf drug up from the spinning low.

    As for the LRC, I believe it started sometime between the 5th of October and the 9 or 10th. The weekend of the 5th was when there was a lot of flooding. Cold air came in later on that week with chilly temps and more rain over the weekend of the 12th. If the LRC runs about 45 to 50 days then these systems just may cycle back around near Thanksgiving.

    Anyways, for another take on weather, you may want to read another blog that has a pretty good discussion on weather system setups. I believe you can also contact them, but they are also on Twitter. https://blog.weather.us/

    Cheers!

    • Terry October 24, 2018 at 6:53 pm - Reply

      Rockdoc this year’s LRC started on October 6th of this year was the first day of the New LRC that’s what Gary Stated on October 6th in his blog.

  58. Anonymous October 24, 2018 at 4:19 pm - Reply

    Need Mower Mike to beat up all of the detractors. Small-man-itis. Maybe that ass-whoopin’ you got last month finally shut you up.

  59. blue flash October 24, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

    I am also quite disappointed in the shutdown of the comments. Many penalized for the indiscretion of the few. I hope Gary will reconsider. It has never been perfect and never will be, but I have learned a lot over the years, from the blog but also from the comments. Won’t be the same without feedback. I will also check back from time to time.

  60. Terry October 24, 2018 at 6:57 pm - Reply

    Everyone This years LRC started on October 6th of this months . Gary stated and said that and his blog on October the 6 that was the 1st day. He said welcome to the first day of this years LRC.

  61. Terry October 24, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

    https://weather2020.com/2018/10/06/ This is the first day of this years LRC October 6th

  62. Tony October 24, 2018 at 7:47 pm - Reply

    MowerMike + Robert Racy= Terry

    We need to stop this madness!!

  63. RossBo October 24, 2018 at 10:27 pm - Reply

    I think we should move this discussion to private group on FB. Moderation is much easier and the ground rules can be set from the beginning.

    • RossBo October 24, 2018 at 10:28 pm - Reply

      Just saw that was proposed above.

  64. BSMike October 25, 2018 at 7:19 am - Reply

    What is the fb page called I would be interested in it?

  65. Frankie October 25, 2018 at 7:55 am - Reply

    I could start the FB group. It would take me probably a few days to get going as we figure things out, but we can post links to Gary’s blog, and then comment on that post? I’d have to figure out how to start it, but I’d be up for taking the initiative. We could have a group of moderators. Strictly a weather blog. No trolling, and quite simply… don’t be an asshole.

    • Clint October 25, 2018 at 8:22 am - Reply

      I think it would be great, let me know if I can help

  66. Tony October 25, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    Sounds like a gay old time….I am sure it will last a few days. I bet all 5 bloggers here will move over there lol. You guys need to just let it go.

  67. Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Hey all! I would have no problem creating the group since I already have a couple FB pages on different topics now.. namely broadcast my newly accessible movies from plex server. I have been on the road the past two weeks and just got back. I can start working on this tomorrow evening and have ready Saturday. Thoughts?

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

      ..and collaborative with hand full of mods. I can probably find a way to auto script Gary’s post over to the group. I am somewhat familiar with working on third party FB apps to integrate.

  68. Thomas Mcclellan October 25, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

    I’m down with a Facebook group.

  69. Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    If we’re going to do a FB blog, how do you propose to get Gary’s and other weather blogs posted so there are topics for discussion? Since I don’t FB other than to periodically look at Gary’s I’m not sure how it works. Can you link to or grab/copy other postings and paste them onto a FB page? I would suggest looking for other weather blogs that go into more detail regarding the 500 mb and other maps showing the features. Several years ago Gary used to go into more detail including discussions on some of the technical aspects, but he stopped doing that which was sad because that is how to learn about what we are seeing.

    What shall we call the FB page? Lezak’s Orphaned Weather Blogger’s Page? Perhaps we can send an invite to Gary and Jeff…LOL. I Tweet and can send them an invite…..;)

  70. Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    At first simple links to each blog would be shared to the group and comments would be at the bottom of each shared link. I’m sure there are aggregate third party apps that can post these automatically at some point. It could be tagged as the highlight post until Gary’s next update. Meanwhile other weather links could be posted as replies our own running topics. At this point it just needs to be created for us weather enthusiasts. Hopefully Gary and others would post comments.

    • LYITC41 October 25, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      GL has washed his hands of all this. He won’t post anything.

  71. Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    For title I think it needs to include kshb and weather2020 in title to make easily searchable on FB. Something like KSHB-Weather2020 Weather Nuts? Lol..

    • RossBo October 25, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      I wasn’t sure if we could use Weather2020 in the name…copyright/trademark?

  72. Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

    Don’t know if we want to tie it to KSHB. They could make us take it down using their FCC call name. Instead, I would go with Kansas City Region Weather 2020 Orphans 😉 I think we need to have “orphans” in the title since that is what we are…..

  73. MikeL October 25, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

    A lot of weather enthusiasts have invested a lot of time over the years contributing to the discussions and making this blog the success that it has been. Whatever the problem is that caused this could have been addressed more directly with the perps. Gary has created a lot of bad will here and I for one am extremely disappointed in the overkill and lack of professionalism. It all seems so unnecessary.

    I don’t use FakeBook and don’t plan to. So if that is where the forum goes I guess I am out.

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

      Mike thanks for the feedback. Does the KC area have any notable local weather enthusiast websites? I could take on a larger project since I have webpage and so experience

      • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

        *Seo

      • Frankie October 25, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

        I was also thinking about the possibility of a website. Easier access. If you need help let me know I think it’s very possible

        • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

          If I went through website route which I have thought about in the past– I would probably use wordpress with a very malleable template.

          • Frankie October 25, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

            WordPress would be perfect. We should get on that.

    • Johnny October 25, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

      I mean i get it, but would have at least addressed it.

    • Mike October 25, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

      Well said, MikeL. It is sad to know that those glorious days on both kshb weather and weather2020 blogs have come to an end. The comment section was abruptly closed is so shocking and unprofessional.

      • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

        I do agree– especially considering this used to be a pay product that I paid for as well. I’ll bird dog whats going on, and then we collectively can come up with a solution. I been either stalking or posting over the past 8 years so I’d like for all of us to stick together somehow on a format that works for all, while still giving the opportunity to have new people come and moderated.

    • Mr. Pete October 25, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

      For what it’s worth, I am not on Facebook either and don’t plan to be. I am on Twitter, though.

    • Baseball Mike October 25, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      Good morning Mike

      I agree, we are two of the early original bloggers from 2001/2002. I will miss not being able to discuss weather and to put precipitation amounts to compare where the tracks of precipitation were falling. I will also not participate on FaceBook.

      Michael/Berryton/Topeka

      • MikeL October 25, 2018 at 11:10 am - Reply

        Yes indeed Mike…hard to believe it’s been that long!

  74. Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    Fyi I wouldn’t put any kshb or weather2020 into a title without Gary’s permission. I’ll reach out to him over the weekend and get his thoughts

  75. Johnny October 25, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Jordan get any rain yet?

  76. Anonymous October 25, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    This morning’s blog fodder:

    “Why it matters: This storm is the strongest typhoon ever to strike the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and likely the strongest ever to strike the U.S. and its territories. “This is an historically significant event,” tweeted Michael Lowry, a FEMA hurricane specialist. Based on satellite data that meteorologists use to estimate storm intensity, Super Typhoon Yutu is one of the strongest tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) observed on Earth in the modern record, on par with Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. That storm devastated the city of Tacloban in the Philippines, killing thousands.”

    Pure, unadulterated BS. Satellites have been around < 70 years. Even fewer years that a qualified hurricane expert, let alone a qualified meteorologist, has actually correctly measured and/or observed a hurricane/typhoon in excess of 150 mph. What a stupid, misinformed statement to insinuate that because this one is one of the biggest/strongest in the last 50 or so years, that it means anything.

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

      This I completely agree. Andrew was upgraded to a CAT 5 — almost 10 years later. I’m sure if we had the opportunity to review unknown storms in the central atlantic before the 60’s.. There are probably 1000ft wide storms over 200mph sustained below 870mb. I wouldnt be surprised if even larger and stronger than that has occured and we simply have no record.

  77. MikeL October 25, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

    It would be both helpful and courteous if Gary would step up and let the bloggers know if the blog comments are closed permanently or will be opened again – and when – before we reinvent the wheel by starting something new. He may have already done this for all I know since I don’t know what’s been said or why the comments were closed in the first place.

    So Gary why don’t you come forward and clarify this so we know how to proceed. I think everyone here would just like to continue on as we always have and put all of this behind us.

    Gary, what say you?

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

      I reached out to him over the several FB pages I communicated in the past this morning asking these very same questions.

      • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

        .. and facebook messenger..

  78. LYITC41 October 25, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    He won’t say anything, if he were inclined to he would have said something by now. He does not give a shit what you all think.

    • Bluetooth October 25, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

      Yep, he doesn’t give a …… something probably didn’t go well with his paper r/t the LRC.

  79. Richard October 25, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    I too am surprised Gary has not mentioned it in his blog writeups this week.
    He does still say good morning bloggers, but we cannot blog on those writeups.
    I looked back at several blogs and really do not see anything recently that would have caused him to close comments.
    Again I apologize if I was one reason.
    Does Gary even realize we are still using this one to comment ?
    One of his recent presentations with peers was about successful blogs.
    It would be good if he could tell everyone what happened and if this will be permanent.
    I disagree with LYITC41 that Gary does not care. He has commnicated on this blog and kshb for too many years to just cut everyone off. I just think he must have a reason.

    Now, onto weather. Is this winter going to be another letdown for us snow lovers ?
    I would be on board with a website formed by MikeL. And moderators.

  80. LYITC41 October 25, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

    But cut you, and everyone, off he has. Get your news and weather on another station if this pisses you off. Don’t use his wx product. Reject everything this guy says and does. In other words, MOVE ON!!!

  81. Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    A web site would be great. By the way, I think the original pay site was set up via WordPress. I don’t really care for FB and only use it to check in on some of Gary’s postings and a few others. I have mine totally closed down where no one can see my FB page.

    Too bad Weather 5280 doesn’t post about weather out our way. Only Colorado, mostly Denver and during ski season – snow in the mountains. For those looking for good write ups on weather and local conditions…check out Joe L blog on the Furry channel. Brett Anthony also does one for KCTV5 periodically. I have commented on Joe’s blog and sometimes he responds. I don’t think you can comment on Brett’s though. For more on the LRC we can always head over to Doug Headys blog…..

    As someone else mentioned, due to legal concerns, I would suggest staying away from KSHB and Weather 2020. As for domain name, I Googled KCWeatherBlog.com and nothing came up.

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 3:47 pm - Reply

      Well I did a search and that domain name is taken. KCWeather.blog is available although I’m not a fan of “.blog” extensions. KCWeatherFans.com. I’m open to domain names ideas. I would prefer the domain to be somewhat SEO-Friendly. I have absolutely no problem throwing in a few bucks toward cheap hosting/domain and putting it together as long as its used.

  82. Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    Did anyone see Joe L’s writeup on what is happening up in Alaska? He actually had two of them. The first one talks about the “blob” of relatively warm water up near the Alaskan coast and possible implications for this winter. The second one talks about the records being set temperature wise in Alaska…..very warm. Anyways, just thought I’d provide links in case anyone wanted to talk weather and possible setups for this winter given what we’ve seen so far with ridging and troughing.

    https://fox4kc.com/2018/10/17/joes-weather-blog-the-return-of-the-blob-winter-clue-wed-10-17/

    https://fox4kc.com/2018/10/23/joes-weather-blog-whats-going-on-in-alaska-tue-10-23/

  83. Richard October 25, 2018 at 3:08 pm - Reply

    LYITC41 and Rockdoc
    With all due respect, we don’t come here for local weather /news that we can get from any other local met.
    The kshb and 2020 blog are for the LRC.
    And to read and communicate with the bloggers, and Gary, about the LRC.
    I like JL blog purely for his in depth charts and stats. But it is not the LRC. And Joe, Heady, Brett Anthony are not Gary. (Heady is definitely not Gary, he tried to out-do Gary with his own theory, but it does not fly with me at all )
    We can still come here to read the writeups by Gary and Jeff. Jeff doesn’t elaborate on the LRC much, but he is part of the LRC team.
    The discussions here with other bloggers is what I will miss. This one is going to be a mile long if comments remain closed, or if nobody opens up another website where we can still talk LRC.

    • Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 9:46 pm - Reply

      Richard, local weather is tied to LRC. Some mets do a better job explaining the setups. Here’s a good example of several writeups for this week. Although geared towards Nor-easter that targets the east coast the writeup also helps explain whats coming our way. This will circle back around per the LRC, but with “seasonal” differences. One needs to look at the “whole” setup and not just a thin nugget.

      https://blog.weather.us/

  84. Tony October 25, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    F Gary. Post links to different weather sites on here. He doesn’t give a damn about you guys…

  85. Tim in Lone Jack October 25, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

    Sadly I received this vague response:
    “We are discussing it internally and will announce it eventually”

  86. Heat Miser October 25, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

    Cant wait for this winter. So many rain storms here in lawrence, multiple rains in Sept, monsterous rains in Oct, rain off an on all day today even…lots of snow a coming.

    • Richard October 25, 2018 at 8:01 pm - Reply

      Hope so Heat !

  87. Frankie October 25, 2018 at 7:50 pm - Reply

    FV3 has a gargantuan of a snowstorm on Nov 3. Not going to happen, but good sign models are already giving us snow this early. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018102518/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

    • Richard October 25, 2018 at 8:00 pm - Reply

      Its only 10 days away. So maybe !

      • Ryan October 25, 2018 at 11:02 pm - Reply

        shift the precip 100 miles north and it might verify

  88. Richard October 25, 2018 at 7:58 pm - Reply

    Maybe 2020 is getting ready to revamp the whole site.
    I wanted to check out the 12 wk forecast but that link is gone.
    Used to be click on weather app and it took you to the 12 week fill in zip code.
    A few other things on that the 2020 home page don’t seem to be working either.

    • Tony October 25, 2018 at 8:04 pm - Reply

      Go out and get f’ed Richard!

    • Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 9:37 pm - Reply

      The Weather1 app still works. Just checked it out and goes out to week of Nov 25th. I wonder if he lost his “intern” and IT guy. Maybe trying to run on thin team.

  89. Rockdoc October 25, 2018 at 9:31 pm - Reply

    Tim, what was the question that you asked that they are thinking about it and may announce? To carry on with the blog? To open it up to comments? Your response is just as cryptic as Lezaks. Clarification would help.

    • Tim in Lone Jack October 26, 2018 at 1:03 am - Reply

      I asked if the comments were to be re enabled soon. I also mentioned his users were interested in creating a secondary site if comments were going to remain disabled.

  90. MikeL October 26, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    Since Gary is non-committal about opening comments up, I have created a “temporary” site where we can meet in the event this gets closed, too. At least this is a place to start for moving forward until something else is decided for those interested in continuing on.

    https://kcrweather.wordpress.com/

    • Frankie October 26, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

      Check this out bloggers. Would be a great alternative to this blog if we can find a way to embed Gary’s blogs over to there

      • LYITC41 October 26, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

        Why involve Lezak at all after what he did. Break free, do your own thing, and leave him out of it!! Screw him! It’s what he did to you.

    • Richard October 26, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

      Thanks Mike
      Worked for me

      • MikeL October 26, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

        Thanks! I hope people find out about it.

  91. Joe October 26, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

    Thanks for setting this up. Didn’t Gary give a presentation on how to run a successful weather blog at one of those meetings with his peers? If so, the web traffic on this site is going to crash…oh the irony.

  92. MikeL October 26, 2018 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    Hey bloggers!!! We’ve moved into an apartment until we see who gets the house! Come join us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    *************** https://kcrweather.wordpress.com/ ****************************

  93. Richard October 26, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

    The site that MikeL created is great. Really appreciate it.
    Would like to see many more check it out.
    Numbersguy, Rockdoc, JoeK, you all have good info and thoughts.
    I know there are many others.
    Bill in Lawrence, Hume Dude, Baseball Mike, Terry.
    Need to get the weather ball rolling again. Hopefully it will be snowballs before long !

  94. f00dl3 October 26, 2018 at 2:13 pm - Reply

    I get the feeling the money is winning out over the community. From a pure business standpoint, it’s stupid to have somewhere where people can criticize your product directly affiliated with your product’s website. That’s what Reddit is for.

    • Richard October 26, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

      Maybe so. Because his product is tied to kshb, no matter how he tried to separate the two.
      When he retires from kshb he will no doubt still work on the LRC.
      But he could at the least come on here and explain.
      “We are downsizing. We have to let you go.”

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