Big Changes Next Week

/Big Changes Next Week

Big Changes Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

We are having some gorgeous fall weather, while at the same time major flooding is in progress over the Lone Star state of Texas.  The pattern has started very wet down there, and it also started very wet in KC.  As November is approaching we are continuing to see the massive change in the pattern. It is still evolving and quite fascinating.  This map below shows the 500 mb flow valid next Thursday, one week from now.  The 500 mb flow is the best level of  the atmosphere to find storm systems, and to track storm systems. it is around half way up in weight of the atmosphere.  The pressure at the top of Earths atmosphere is zero, or zero weight, and at the surface there is an average pressure of 1013.25 mb. So, 500 mb is about half way up, and this weight level is in the troposphere around 18,000 feet above us.  This map below shows a mostly zonal flow component, with still some strong systems anchoring the pattern over the Gulf of Alaska and over eastern Canada.  What will happen with this energy in the next two weeks will be interesting to watch unfold.

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For now, Kansas City is in great shape for some beautiful fall weather. While, at the same time, we must watch another tropical system track into Mexico and head towards TX next week.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and just a bit cool. High:  65°
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a chance of a few light rain showers.  Low:  49°
  • Friday:  Morning clouds and maybe a few showers. The chance of rain is 30%.  High:  62°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. High:  61°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny with a few high clouds. Cooler with a high: 54°  Dry for Sunday night football and in the 40s.

Have a great day!

Gary

2018-10-19T09:17:25+00:00October 18th, 2018|General|27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. Urbanity October 18, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Gary, from what I can tell, and I’m not an expert like you, but the 500 mb weather map you show at the top of your blog today looks almost identical to the weather map you posted last year on Oct 17, 2017. Can you explain what differences you are seeing at this point if any? Thank you.

    • Snow Miser October 18, 2018 at 9:29 am - Reply
      • Gary October 18, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

        The west to east jet is similar, and then there are major differences. Look closer. This is evolving, just like last year it evolved at this time of the year, just like every year. We have a lot more pattern to analyze for weeks ahead.

        Gary

        • Urbanity October 18, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

          I was looking at the jet, but also the areas of low pressure look similar if not identical. I realize the flow is further south at the moment, and wind direction is different in many areas (if that matters?), but I looked closer and ummm…don’t see anything. What are you saying?

    • Brian October 18, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

      It’s much further south – instead of through the Dakotas and Minnesota the jet stream is along KS and MO southern border. I’m not sure what that means but hopefully a more active pattern.

      • Three7s October 18, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

        Yep, the flow being further south, while still zonal, is a big difference.

  2. Frankie October 18, 2018 at 9:34 am - Reply

    NWS forecast discussion said this:

    “A Pacific trough digging across the 4 Corners will bring us out next chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.”

    They mention a trough digging across the SW, which from what I hear from you bloggers, is a big proponent for winter storms in the area. This has to be a good sign that it is already happening and happened earlier a couple more times as the LRC began.

  3. BSMike October 18, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    To me it looks to be a blocking pattern setting up Gary!!

    • A1hoops October 18, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

      If it does turn into a blocking pattern with a trough over the Rockies this could be a huge winter storm for us! Guess we will have to wait a week to see if we get a strong storm to form

  4. Troy October 18, 2018 at 10:04 am - Reply

    The Japanese model is showing a trough in the West in November now as well, although its 3 weeks out. Not much warm weather (above average) to be found in any forecasts for our area.

  5. Anonymous October 18, 2018 at 11:48 am - Reply

    Early fantasy guess is 30+ inches of snow this season.

  6. Heat Miser October 18, 2018 at 11:59 am - Reply

    Bring it….40 inches of snow!

    • Anonymous October 18, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

      ^^ LIKE

    • Mr. Pete October 18, 2018 at 5:40 pm - Reply

      How exciting would that be!

  7. LYITC41 October 18, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    My wishcast is for 4-5″ of snow spread out over the whole of winter w/ abundant above freezing rains in between dustings.

  8. Numb3rsGuy October 18, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

    My guess for this winter is somewhere between 3.9″ (2011/12) and 68″ (1911/12), centered around 18″ (long term average). 😛

    But really, I predict 25″ this year. The pattern is more active and diving over the four corners area, a weak El Niño will provide more moisture in the atmosphere, and the low solar activity will allow for high latitude blocking that will allow cold air to spill into the Midwest.

    • Three7s October 18, 2018 at 1:24 pm - Reply

      This is a reasonable take, but we really need to see how long this zonal flow lasts. Seems we always get into a long-term zonal flow in winter.

  9. Snow Miser October 18, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

    There’s no earthly way of knowing
    Which direction we are going.
    There’s no knowing where we’re rowing
    Or which way the river’s flowing.

    Is it raining?
    Is it snowing?
    Is a hurricane a blowing?

    Not a speck of light is showing
    so the danger must be growing.
    Are the fires of hell a glowing?
    Is the grisly reaper mowing?

    Yes! The danger must be growing
    For the rowers keep on rowing.
    And they’re certainly not showing
    any signs that they are slowing

  10. Jeffg October 18, 2018 at 3:11 pm - Reply

    Compared both models side by side by pasting them into Word and there are some major differences as mentioned above.I hope the new flow will give us some better chances of snow!! Thanks for the link to last years 500mb flow.

  11. Mike October 18, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply
    • Three7s October 18, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      They’re going with that because they’re assuming a modoki el nino is in progress.

    • Frankie October 18, 2018 at 5:03 pm - Reply

      The CPC constantly has a warm bias and has our area in above average temps for every month in the foreseeable future. Not going to happen. I would take it with a grain of salt. It’s very general with no details or specifics.

      • Adam October 18, 2018 at 7:14 pm - Reply

        I agree. I recall much warmer falls recently. If this is an indicator of winter it will not be warmer.

        • LYITC41 October 19, 2018 at 6:18 am - Reply

          Fact is no one knows. Cooler now doesn’t mean a colder winter just as a warmer autumn would not set a mild winter in stone.

    • BSMike October 19, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

      what a joke!!!! Notice they say “COULD” be a warmer winter at the beginning.

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