First Half Of October Results

/First Half Of October Results

First Half Of October Results

Good morning bloggers,

We had a pretty decent freeze this morning as the temperatures were below freezing from  1 AM to 8 AM. The low temperature dropped to 26 degrees this morning, which ends the growing season in our area:

Screen Shot 2018-10-16 at 7.40.10 AM

What just happened?  Kansas City just had what I would argue is the most exciting 15 day stretch of weather we have had in years. Just in the past seven days we have had heavy rain, tornado warnings, and some snow.  It was the earliest first accumulation in Kansas City’s recorded history:

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How close did we come to having a surprise 2 to 3 inch snowfall?  It was actually very close. We are so used to getting missed. Well, maybe we will begin getting used to having it get more exciting as we get closer to an event, and not less exciting. This is at least how the LRC has started. We have had wide spread high rainfall amounts and these totals are for just one half of this month.

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It was also wet last year in October, and there are many huge differences this year.  First of all it already has snowed measurably in KC and Wichita, KS, the earliest ever recorded. And, more importantly, the rain was not along and east of I-35 like it was last year. This time it was wide spread over many states centered near KC.  So, we establish some big differences from last years pattern results already. Hang on for a few more weeks before you make any conclusions.  It is way too early. It would be like predicting how your fantasy football team will do this year after you drafted your first two players. Rounds 3 though 12 are still ahead.  Let’s see how Mother Nature drafts the rest of our players.

It is going to be a beautiful fall day with a high reaching 60 degrees or a bit higher.  The weather looks great for next Sunday nights game as well.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

2018-10-17T14:02:40+00:00October 16th, 2018|General|66 Comments

66 Comments

  1. Snow Miser October 16, 2018 at 8:05 am - Reply

    So does this mean the snowflake contest is cancelled this year?

    • Three7s October 16, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

      KCI hasn’t gotten an inch yet. I’m sure it’s fine.

      • Three7s October 16, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

        I know he doesn’t measure the inch at KCI, but you get what I mean.

        • Richard October 16, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

          For the contest I think they measure it from the kshb patio ?
          Gary can you tell us

          • JoeK October 16, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

            It has always been the first inch measured at the station…………..

      • Snow Miser October 16, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

        Hmm, I guess I was thinking the snowflake contest was for *any* measurable snowfall.

        • Richard October 16, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

          Contest is for the first inch

  2. Mr. Pete October 16, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    Is there a winter forecast soon since it has now started to snow?

    • Frankie October 16, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

      I assume Gary will still wait until late Nov to put it together just because there is so much left of the LRC to put together and interpret. We still have all of Nov to experience something new.

    • LYITC41 October 16, 2018 at 10:13 am - Reply

      There was no summer forecast that I remember and recent winter forecasts have not worked out for him soooo…..maybe not.

      • JoeK October 16, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

        Disagree, the winter forecast for last year hit 2 of 3 . Below average temps and dry. The only part of the forecast that did not verify was the amount of snow of which, My opinion remains the same, it is only done for the viewers as it is very difficult to forecast the exact dynamics of each system. 1 inch of precip. can be 20 inches or 6 inches of snow. Regarding this years winter forecast, I am sure Gary will wait until the very end of November or first part of December to allow for proper analyzing of the first cycle. Any sooner and it will be a mixture of luck and guess work. Good examples are other Mets. putting out winter forecasts based on averages and statistical data from El Nino years. Just my 2 cents. Hope everybody is enjoying the beautiful weather

  3. MikeL October 16, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    We did get a half inch of snow last Halloween here in Topeka and last winter was a dud. Hopefully more excitement this winter.

  4. Richard October 16, 2018 at 9:18 am - Reply

    Blog is funky today on my device. Anyone else see a difference ?

    • Alex Pickman October 16, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply

      Does the blog ever work for you? I’ve never experienced any of these issues you’ve numerously commented.

      • LYITC41 October 16, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

        He’s the only one who has problems with it.

      • Richard October 16, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

        Alex
        I didn’t say it wasn’t working. Just looking different.
        This blog is the only thing that does this. Nothing else on the web is different.
        Whats the problem if I ask if anyone else’s is different.
        I only have my device. No computer no monitor.
        Weather is beautiful, but boring now. So thought it would be ok for me to ask.

        • Snow Miser October 16, 2018 at 3:56 pm - Reply

          Get a laptop. You’ll be glad you did.

    • Snow Miser October 16, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

      Generally speaking, surfing the web on one’s cellphone sucks. Don’t know why so many people do it.

      • Adam October 16, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        It shouldn’t suck. Most websites are mobile responsive now. It’s not difficult to test for mobile responsiveness. Having said that I have very few issues with this site and frequently access it through my phone.

        • Snow Miser October 16, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

          Just the small size of even the larger cellphones, means that surfing the web on one’s cellphone is gonna suck. Nothing beats a decent-sized monitor.

    • JoeK October 16, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

      Richard,

      I experience what you are discussing every few weeks. It has to do with your cookie handling on your device. Clear out your cache and cookies and make sure you check allow for weather2020.

  5. snowflakeparkville October 16, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    How much snow fell in St. Joseph?

    • Alex Pickman October 16, 2018 at 9:43 am - Reply

      I’d say somewhere between 2 – 3 inches as branches had started to fall and cause power outages. I’m 15 min east of Stj in Stewartsville, and I had 1.5” on the dot

  6. Urbanity October 16, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

    Analog years say it will be cold and dry this winter….those are the worst winters:/

    The LRC vs historical trends, will have to wait and see what the LRC predicts. October going out like a lamb…..

    • Mike October 16, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      It is only October 16th. How in the world can you say it is going out like a lamb? October has been a fantastic start to the new LRC. The AO is showing a negative trend towards the last few days of the month. In my opinion it is unfair to say October is going out like a lamb until it actually happens. Be patient and lets all see how this plays out.

      Mike

      • Urbanity October 16, 2018 at 2:22 pm - Reply

        We’ll see, the AO is less predictable than the weather, just saying. Nov will tell, one storm a week in Nov is the ticket.

    • Troy October 16, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

      Pretty chilly though. If you believe the Euro we have 45 more days of below normal temps ahead. We have not had any ridging overhead really in quite some time.

      I think you can have quite a bit of snow even without having above normal precip. No clue if we will but a lot of times we have had wet winters its because of rain. The winters in the 70s and 80s had some pretty heavy snows with only average precip because it was cold and all of it was snow.

    • Terry October 16, 2018 at 3:18 pm - Reply

      Lol

    • Heat Miser October 16, 2018 at 5:43 pm - Reply

      lol…nobody has a clue yet

  7. Kathy October 16, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

    Gary, I’m sure this last stretch of weather has provided you some valuable information into the formation of this year’s LRC. You probably gleaned information which isn’t obvious to most of us. For example…will this pattern repeat itself again as where it will be located? or will it be east of here? I think you may have answered that in today’s blog, but if it were to occur here, would that mean that in this part of the cycle, we would see a cold version (like in December) with snow and/or ice? or severe weather, snow and ice? Would we see tornadic outbreaks in April or May? This was a fairly significant event, so I would be curious how this would translate in future cycles. Of course, everyone else is probably wondering that too, and I’m guessing it’s too early to answer.

    • Urbanity October 16, 2018 at 3:42 pm - Reply

      It’s got to repeat once for Gary to know if it’s going to repeat.

  8. f00dl3 October 16, 2018 at 4:51 pm - Reply

    Latest GFS has a interesting pattern forming late this month with some comma head lows splitting right overhead. Similar to what we see w/ blizzard type systems in winter. Interesting to see if that pans out.

    • Richard October 16, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

      On air at 5 pm Gary mentioned interesting setup nxt week. something about a split flow
      Maybe he will do a blog about it tomorrow.

      • Richard October 16, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

        Maybe I got it wrong. Maybe he said later in the month, not next week.

        • Gary October 16, 2018 at 8:48 pm - Reply

          It is something to monitor in these next two weeks. We still have a lot to learn about this pattern.

  9. Kai October 16, 2018 at 6:28 pm - Reply

    What kind of weather for Kansas City (and entire Nation) is typical when “splitting of the jets” occur?

  10. BSMike October 16, 2018 at 8:56 pm - Reply

    Stormy

  11. Mr. Pete October 16, 2018 at 11:09 pm - Reply

    So this week was supposed to be calm, sunny and dry and now all the sudden a wet rainstorm on Friday appears?

  12. Nick October 17, 2018 at 1:43 am - Reply

    Now that the winter cold has retreated, its nice to have nice “regular” cool fall weather. 🙂

  13. Snow Miser October 17, 2018 at 8:27 am - Reply

    Since it looks like there won’t be a new blog today, here’s an interesting article on the shifting geography of tornadoes:
    https://apnews.com/9ddb3deeec9a49d6a1349b78f1ca0f03

    • Fred Souder October 17, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

      That is interesting. In the article, they postulate that it is because the dry line is moving east, but that has been shown to be false, so there must be another reason. Also interesting is that they don’t mention in the article that strong tornadoes have been decreasing everywhere during the same time frame (since 1979). I do have to point out their money quote when asked why this is happening: “We don’t know,” Gensini Said. “This is super consistent with climate change.”

      • Troy October 17, 2018 at 1:17 pm - Reply

        Warm phase of PDO and AMO is my answer to this. Was cold in the 70s. Also why we have had less cold and snow since then in my opinion.

    • Gary October 17, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      Good article. IMO there is no shift. It is just the pattern the past four years where KC has had a snow drought, caused by the same eastward shift. They will rewrite this when/if tornado alley lights up in this years LRC.

      Gary

      • Snow Miser October 17, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

        The study examined data going back to 1979. I don’t think the last 4 years alone would be responsible for what they found.

  14. Urbanity October 17, 2018 at 8:48 am - Reply

    The top story on Accuweather’s Global Climate Change web page is “Santa Ana winds knock down trees, killing a woman” October 16, 2018, 9:30:57 PM EDT

    Yet another tragic death caused by climate change, first CO2, now Santa Ana winds?!!! What’s next, snow in the mountains???!!!

    • Anonymous October 17, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

      Cold weather kills dozen this winter

  15. Richard October 17, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

    NWS Kansas City put this out

    A mid-October record rundown:

    10/7: 2nd wettest Oct day (any) all-time 4.48″ record 4.54
    in 10/21/1908
    10/9: 2nd wettest 3 day total for any dates on record 8.38″
    record 9.39″ on 9/11-13/1977
    10/14: Record earliest measurable snowfall 0.2″…old
    record in 1898
    10/15: Daily record low of 30…old record 32 in 1891
    10/15: Daily record min-max of 47…old record 49 in 2009
    10/16: Daily record low 26…old record 29 in 1943

    Through the first 15 days of October: this is the second wettest October on record 10.69″…record 11.94″ in 1941.

    Through the first 15 days of October: this is the 16th wettest month of any month on the 131-year record.

  16. BSMike October 17, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    Wheres Gary today?

    • Snow Miser October 17, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

      Slow weather news day, probably.

      • Gary October 17, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

        I had to go to the hospital this morning to visit Andy’s dad, at 6 AM, so the blog will come later.

        Gary

        • Anonymous October 17, 2018 at 11:03 am - Reply

          Positive thoughts for you all Gary!

        • Mr. Pete October 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

          I hope all is OK!

        • Richard October 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

          Yeah, you were on sports 810 at 8 a.m. saying you listened to them for 30 min all the way home from the hospital.
          Good to know Andy’s dad doing good. Knee surgery not a piece of cake, but better than it used to be for sure.

          No worries about the blog ! Take a break Gary. Its beautiful day ! Get Sunny out to Loose Park and let loose ! 😁

          • Adam October 17, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

            No doubt there. Today is perfect.

  17. Nick October 17, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

    But the temperature “record” was set over 30 miles to the NNW from where it was probably measured in 1943 (MKC-downtown airport).

  18. BSMike October 17, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

    Time to mow the grass one last time or two!!

  19. Troy October 17, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    CFSv2 is showing a trough in the West again for November today. Of course the past days have been quite different so maybe it will switch again.

  20. Anonymous October 17, 2018 at 1:35 pm - Reply

    Richard’s having Gary withdrawals. Cheer up buttercup, he’ll come back.

    • Richard October 17, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

      Hey anonymous bozo
      I was not the one who asked where Gary is.

  21. LYITC41 October 17, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    Glad he has his permission to “take a break” today!

    • Richard October 17, 2018 at 3:43 pm - Reply

      Stuff it

    • Richard October 17, 2018 at 3:56 pm - Reply

      Lol
      Looks like he took my advice and took a break from putting out the blog ! jk 😁
      Jeff put it out M

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