Strong Cold Front & Possible Snowflakes

/Strong Cold Front & Possible Snowflakes

Strong Cold Front & Possible Snowflakes

Good morning bloggers,

It was down to a bone chilling 19 degrees in Casper, Wyoming his morning, and 20 degrees in Denver, CO:

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This cold front is heading our way and will move through later this morning with the temperatures beginning to fall.  The air will be coming from almost due north, so we will not have the air coming front Grand Island, for example, but rather Fort Dodge, IA. This will likely keep our temperatures from dropping to below 32 degrees tonight with the brisk north wind not allowing any low lying areas from dropping into the 20s. If there are any wind protected areas, then a freeze is possible. This is why the NWS has not issued a freeze warning for KC yet.

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There is a freeze warning to our north, however, so northwestern Missouri and far northeastern KS locations do have a Freeze Warning.

There is an area of precipitation organizing to our northwest and it is snowing over a large area of Nebraska, touching the Kansas border.  Will Kansas City see any snowflakes? The conditions are not favorable for any snowflakes reaching the surface until well after sunset tonight, and this will be when the precipitation is about to end.  It will be something to monitor closely as the Chiefs play New England in Boston.

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Forecast Maps:

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The rain/snow/sleet line does get to the south side of the KC metro area before midnight. There is a chance that a dusting to less than 1″ of snow may accumulate on grassy surfaces north of KC later today, but with temperatures hovering just above freezing there likely will not be any accumulation on roads, so no travel problems are expected.  What are the chances that KC, that we see our first snowflakes tonight? Well, I would put it at70% chance north of I-70, with lesser chances farther south and east.

New England Tonight:

It will be clear, with light winds in Boston with temperatures dropping from the 50s into the 40s.  It could not be better weather for a big game. Go Patrick “Michael Jordan” Mahomes and the KC Chiefs tonight. Will we be 6-0 by 11 PM tonight? I think so. My prediction is 34-23 Chiefs.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-10-15T16:18:55+00:00October 14th, 2018|General|55 Comments

55 Comments

  1. Three7s October 14, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Next to nothing showing up on the models beyond storm A-3. Looks like things will get quiet for awhile.

    • Terry October 14, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

      But remember we cant trust Anything beyond 3 to 5 days Because will be field with Errors and I have looked and seen things change from day to day on that! So far i believe this has been a very good LRC pattern 2018/2019

      • Tony October 14, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

        What?

        • Terry October 14, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

          You know what I said Can’t trust any things beyond 3 to 5 days for accuracy model wise .

        • LYITC41 October 15, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

          Get used to it.

  2. Michael Garner October 14, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Snowing here……Omaha that is. At first when the models showed some snow in the KC area for today and none for Omaha I was bummed that the weekend I’m gone this would happen, but now it is snowing here in Omaha!!!

  3. Frankie October 14, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    The NAM is hinting at a second/later band coming after the rain that would come in as just snow. I think the chances are high that we get our first snowflakes tonight.

  4. Mr. Pete October 14, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    Michael Jordan Mahomes? I like showtime better. 😊

  5. nemo (not the fish) October 14, 2018 at 9:36 am - Reply

    Gary, quick question. I’ve been a longtime follower of this blog but rarely ever leave a remark. I throughly enjoy some of the shenanigans that take place on this blog, and on the ones that have come before. I do my best to spread the word about the LRC, as I appreciate your work and the accuracy I see with many of your predictions. I do however peruse the weather channel, but mostly for their news articles. Today I read an article about their “winter forecast” and chuckled a bit. Do you have any idea where these knuckleheads come up with their predictions or how they reach their conclusions? It all seems very vague and from what I can tell lack any real scientific data to back it up. I’m a career science man myself, but in the health industry and I understand the researching required to make scientific conclusions. Am I missing something here, or are these so called weather experts just blowing bubbles up ppls you know what?

    • Gary October 15, 2018 at 5:50 am - Reply

      They are just blowing bubbles, and thank you for asking and for your first comment. The LRC provides so much more insight in-depth analysis compared to a snapshot, one map of the USA prediction you get from the other sources mostly based on just a hunch. The pattern is just now revealing many things to analyze.

      It was 32 degrees and still falling at 5AM. The NWS finally issued a Freeze Warning for the entire area. I saw my first wet snowflakes after the incredible Chiefs performance by Patrick Mahomes in the 43-40 loss. The blog will come a bit later today.

      Gary

  6. Richard October 14, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

    We might get a nice fall after all.
    Warming into the 60’s this week and quiet for the next 7-10 days.

  7. KS Jones October 14, 2018 at 11:29 am - Reply

    It looks like Concordia is just now getting snow. The NWS says this area (60 miles east of Concordia) should expect <1". Weather Underground's forecast agrees with that. After today, the forecast says the next nine days will be sunny and mainly sunny with no precipitation.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=sln&animate=true

  8. Skylar October 14, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

    Winds really picking up out of the north here in Lawrence in the last half hour with a heavy drizzle.

  9. Roger October 14, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

    Power outages occurring in the Lincoln and Omaha areas. Heavy banded snow for the last 3 hours.

  10. Michael Garner October 14, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    In Omaha now and the snow is crazy, CRAZY GOOD!

  11. craig October 14, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    That was wild!
    Like a squall line of drizzle just moved through Lenexa/Olathe. Heavy drizzle with 20-30 mph winds.
    For points east, you can see it coming on radar, too.

  12. Hockeynut69 October 14, 2018 at 2:32 pm - Reply

    Front is pushing through now between Liberty and Kearney. Winds fairly brisk out of the N/NW. There’s a mist blowing sideways. Temperature is down about 5 degrees so far.

  13. Mike October 14, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    The AO appears to be trending negative towards the end of the month.

  14. snowflakeparkville October 14, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

    Heavy rain just started a few minutes ago in southern Platte County.

  15. Hockeynut69 October 14, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

    Down 10 degrees since 1pm. If this cycles back around in cycle 2, the colder air during that cycle could make for an interesting day. Moderate to heavy rain now. No snowflakes yet.

  16. Richard October 14, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Just heard thunder

  17. Matt October 14, 2018 at 4:34 pm - Reply

    Down to 38 degrees up here in leavenworth

  18. KS Jones October 14, 2018 at 7:06 pm - Reply

    Current conditions at
    Marysville Municipal Airport (KMYZ)
    Lat: 39.86°NLon: 96.63°WElev: 1283ft.
    Light Snow
    32°F
    Humidity 100%
    Wind Speed N 12 G 21 mph

  19. Troy October 14, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

    Here in RP County I measured 4″ of snow. Coming home from church the roads were bad as it came heavy enough to put a couple inches on the highway and was very slushy. Had to get the snow plows out already.

  20. Heat Miser October 14, 2018 at 8:55 pm - Reply

    report of heavy snow in Topeka, 36 in Lawence

  21. nemo (not the fish) October 14, 2018 at 9:05 pm - Reply

    the very few times I’ve ever commented it’s always stayed in moderation. never. once has it been posted. even when I had to pay to play. what gives? kinda frustrated and would like an explanation. makes it real hard on ppl who follow you and play by the rules, yet others get their posted when they shouldn’t even be allowed. I’m sure your going to read this, and probably leave it in moderation again…..

  22. Matt October 14, 2018 at 9:17 pm - Reply

    Looking at the radar its showing snow all over KS. From the Colorado border to the Missouri border. Should start snowing any minute here in Leavenworth. Jefferson County to the west and western LV County is getting snow.

  23. Matt October 14, 2018 at 9:33 pm - Reply

    Snow is coming down in downtown Leavenworth. Just got done taking the dog out. There is still rain drops mixed with it, but there is a layer of slush forming on the tops of cars. Kind of nasty actually as the wind is pushing it in at a 45 degree angle. So enough to get in your face.

  24. Mr. Pete October 14, 2018 at 10:46 pm - Reply

    let It snow!

  25. A1hoops October 14, 2018 at 10:53 pm - Reply

    Snow sleet rain mix in Shawnee

  26. Katharidinaus October 14, 2018 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    Still rain/drizzle here in Independence (40 Hwy/Noland). I’m not sure the changeover line will get here before everything shuts off

  27. snowflakeparkville October 14, 2018 at 10:58 pm - Reply

    Snowing heavily here!

  28. Skylar October 14, 2018 at 11:17 pm - Reply

    Dusting here in Lawrence! It looks like this is the second earliest accumulation for most of the area.

    • snowflakeparkville October 14, 2018 at 11:23 pm - Reply

      This will be #1 earliest for KC, breaking a 120-year-old record! (October 17, 1898)

      • Numb3rsGuy October 15, 2018 at 7:50 am - Reply

        I just checked the record books, and the snowfall value for 10/14 is “missing”. My guess is that they are reviewing the measurement accuracy because breaking an all-time record for KC with records dating back to 1888 would be insane! Especially a record for the earliest measurable snowfall in the age of climate change. The record back in 1898 is 3.3″, so I don’t think we’ll quite get there. 🙂

      • LYITC41 October 15, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

        Snowflakeparkville: Wrong. No records will be broken.

  29. matt October 14, 2018 at 11:25 pm - Reply

    cars are covered in snow up in Leavenworth.

  30. birdieman October 14, 2018 at 11:31 pm - Reply

    Really?! Snow is fine with hot chocolate, a fire and a snuggly woman but it blows driving across town at 7am to go to work, especially the first one. Folks, it’s too early

  31. Matt October 14, 2018 at 11:49 pm - Reply

    Cars are turning white up here. grass is still just wet.

  32. snowflakeparkville October 15, 2018 at 12:25 am - Reply

    Sticking to cars and little else. 12:25AM near I-435 and MO-45.

  33. Mr. Pete October 15, 2018 at 12:38 am - Reply

    Heavy small flakes here in Prairie Village. Wow. Can’t believe it’s actually snowing.

  34. Mattj October 15, 2018 at 12:46 am - Reply

    So what was the name of that computer model that predicted snow a week ago. The one where some bloggers blasted it as hypocrisy and 100% false. The posts of those bloggers is completely wrong with what q

  35. Matt October 15, 2018 at 12:52 am - Reply

    So, where are those one bloggers who last week were laughing at snow predictions based on their own weather analysis? Too many “forecasters” said snow this early was basically fortune telling. “Oh it’s too early for snow”. Their weather predictions were not even based on what was actually happening, but based on historical stats. Historical stats is how they predict what is actually happening currently lmao.

  36. Kurt October 15, 2018 at 2:08 am - Reply

    We had several inches of wet snow and now power is out here just south of St Joseph. This was the second October surprise here. And snowflake contest would be over up here.

    • Alex Pickman October 15, 2018 at 2:13 am - Reply

      Any measurements over there Kurt?

  37. Alex Pickman October 15, 2018 at 2:12 am - Reply

    Welp first snowfall of the season here in Stewartsville, MO, and it accumulated nicely!! Am sitting at 1.5” on the dot of wet snow.

    Looks like higher amounts in just west of me in St. Joe with some power outages. First measurements in the book!!

  38. KS Jones October 15, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Snow is still lingering on cold surfaces here, and there is 0.2″ of water in the rain gauge.
    The temperature didn’t go as low as forecast — only 30° rather than 27°. It is currently 32°

  39. Stl78(winon,mn) October 15, 2018 at 8:33 am - Reply

    @ Matt, I’ve been saying for awhile that I thought there was a chance of snow in your viewing area. however, I did also say that I didn’t put much stock into the gfs fv3. Regardless, sounds as though you guys had a nice little storm producing very early in the cycle

    • Three7s October 15, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

      Yeah, we definitely have some sort of long-wave trough over us. These disturbances are really getting their act together right on top of us.

  40. Richard October 15, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    It was the earliest neasureable snow in Wichita dating back to 1888

  41. Richard October 15, 2018 at 8:56 am - Reply

    “With more than two weeks to go before Halloween, Kansas City has already received its first measurable snowfall of the season.

    The National Weather Service office in Pleasant Hill said it had measured 0.2 inches of snow late Sunday. The Oct 14 snowfall beats the previous record for earliest snowfall by three days. Kansas City had 3.3 inches of snow on Oct. 17, 1898.

    The temperature at KCI Airport also set a record. At 31 degrees, the airport had its coldest recorded temperature ever for Oct. 15. The previous record of 32 was set in 1943.”

  42. Richard October 15, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    New blog over on the kshb blog.
    Guess Gary forgot to hit the button for 2020

  43. Richard October 15, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Hey Gary
    When I clicked your link for 2020 blog at bottom of kshb blog it took me to the 2020 new blog of 10/15
    But when clicking 2020 from my home screen it brings me to this one. 10/14

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