Nice Saturday, Big Changes Sunday

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking another system for Sunday and it could bring the first snowflakes of the season to some locations. The weather pattern is rather active. The rain system from Friday is now over New York city. The remnants of Pacific tropical system Sergio are bringing heavy rain to parts of Oklahoma and Texas. The systems for Sunday are now located in Montana and southern California. Pieces of each system will combine with a cold front to bring big changes Sunday.

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Also, where is Michael? Saturday morning it was exiting Newfoundland and headed to Europe as a post tropical system.

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Now let’s get to the weekend weather.

SATURDAY: It will be a nice day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will reach 55°-60° depending on how much sun your location receives.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Our area will be mostly dry with temperatures 45°-50°. You cannot rule out a shower or two. Rain, snow, wind and falling temperatures will be occurring across Kansas and Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NOON: Rain and wind will increase as temperatures decrease. Snow may be occurring or mixed with the rain in the northwest corner of Missouri.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: It will be windy and cold with winds gusting from the north at 10-25 mph. Temperatures will be in the 30s with wind chill values in the 20s. There will be areas of light to moderate rain. Snowflakes and/or sleet may be mixed in, especially north of KC. Temperatures will be mostly above freezing, so roads will be wet.

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MONDAY MORNING: The storm system will be gone as the sky clears and winds decrease. Lows will be around 30°. So, yes we may see our first freeze. Wind chill values will stay in the 20s. What about black ice? We do not expect any issues as surfaces will dry before they have a chance to freeze. Also, some locations may not drop below freezing.

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The average first freeze date in our area ranges from around October 10th to 20th. So, a freeze on October 15th is average. Remember to protect the delicate plants.

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Here is a snowfall forecast for Sunday and Monday.

The KC area may see a few snowflakes or ice pellets just as the precipitation ends Sunday evening. A dusting, mainly on grassy surfaces, is possible in far northwest Missouri.

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The best chance for accumulating snow will be across Wyoming, Colorado and western sections of Nebraska and Kansas. 1″ to 6″ will be possible in those locations.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Not sure but I do enjoy his write ups

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Not in his job description unfortunately. I think Jeff does a great job explaining. Bet he would do a great job on the technicals with additional graphics. To me, this is what a weather blog should be. Technicals walking through the setups with good graphics and maps. Pointing out features at 500mb, 850mb and surface. Little known secret is 850mb is key in transition between 500mb and surface. That’s why I also study this layer.

Richard
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Richard

Wonder why Jeff doesn’t comment or answer questions when he writes up the blog.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Why does it matter?

Richard
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Richard

It doesn’t matter. Just an observation

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The NWS still has us (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) in a 1″ to 2″ band of snow, but their prediction shows only 1″ for Marysville and less than an inch for Manhattan.
https://www.weather.gov/media/top/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Weather Underground backed off of their 1″ to 3″ snowfall for Sunday. Now they’re predicting <1", and the time it will begin was changed from noon to 2 PM.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

KS Jones – where is “out this way?
Topeka, Salina, western Kansas, Colorado?

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I think Nov may be warmer than avg but who knows. Saw my first flakes up here this wk. Not quite ready for that yet!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

I can’t find any repeating pattern in the weather from October 6, 2017 to October 6, 2018 out this way. Our weather was more or less chaotic rather than cyclical.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Depending on the length of the LRC we could see last weekend’s rain event come back around Thanksgiving Day (Nov 22) weekend, and tomorrow’s storm setup the following weekend (Dec 1). This assumes an approximate 50 day LRC.

This sure has been a cold start for October. Temps have been below average. With temps close to freezing over night early next week, I suspect late November into early December will be quite cold. Stay warm everyone.

Richard
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Richard

Jeff
Thanks
When will the snowflake contest be announced ?

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

So far it’s kinda raw outside. Clouds, wet, cold. Ugh.