Over 148 Million Seconds Since KC’s Last 3″ Snow

/Over 148 Million Seconds Since KC’s Last 3″ Snow

Over 148 Million Seconds Since KC’s Last 3″ Snow

Good morning bloggers,

It has been over 4 years, 8 months, and 9 days since KC had its last 3″ of snow one date.  February 4, 2014 was the last time we had that much snow, which means we have gone four full winters of bad weather patterns in a row.  This streak will continue for another 45 days or longer, as we only average 1″ of snow between now and the end of November.  Here is a picture of that last 3″ snow:

Sunny The Weather Dog wasn’t even born yet. This picture shows my wonderful dog Stormy from four years ago showing a scene we have not seen since this February 4, 2014 storm.  Will this winter finally break this trend? Well, it is too early to call, and look below.

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This is the NAM model, and the other models are similar.  This shows the rain changing to heavy snow just northwest of KC. Remember it is only October 12th.  October 22, 1996 was the October Surprise when a storm much stronger than this one produced enough cold air to combine with the precipitation shield to produce 6 to 8 inches of snow, which shows that it can happen at this time of the year.  It is something to monitor and share together.

Today, rain is moving in. It will be close to having snowflakes over northern Missouri today as well.  Bundle up. Go Chiefs on Sunday, and have a great day!

Gary

2018-10-13T08:07:45+00:00October 12th, 2018|General|47 Comments

47 Comments

  1. Three7s October 12, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    As I thought, most would discount a snow chance this time of year, even if the models hint at it. However, that is how the October Surprise happened. Can’t just ignore it at this point, especially when it snows heavy snow less than 50 miles away.

  2. Adam October 12, 2018 at 7:50 am - Reply

    Foo Fighters concert tonight. Can’t wait!

  3. Snow Miser October 12, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    Though I’d love to have some October now, personally I don’t want anymore than about an inch or two, seeing that all the leaves are still on the trees. On Halloween 2011 they had a noreaster storm in the Northeast coast where they got several inches of snow, and since most of the trees still had leaves on them, lots of branches came down.

  4. Terry October 12, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    I don’t know about any of you guys but I’m kind of liking this new weather pattern where in.

    • Tony October 12, 2018 at 9:50 am - Reply

      You said that last year too.

  5. Adam October 12, 2018 at 7:53 am - Reply

    That snow is awful damn close.

  6. Urbanity October 12, 2018 at 8:20 am - Reply

    I refuse to jump the gun on this year’s LRC, to me a lot of the pattern has not changed, same precipitation timetable as last two years. After this weekend looks dry for awhile. If we don’t see another big/decent event before Oct 30th then I’m going to believe we have retreated back into dryness for the winter. Models struggle during transition periods so hard to say what will happen long term.The reason I feel the pattern has not changed a whole lot is the tropical development is still repeating in the same locations, it’s difficult to believe we are in a new pattern when things from the old pattern are still repeating.

    • Three7s October 12, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

      We just had twice as much rain in 4 days as we’ve had through any month total during the whole year. And not just in one area, but wide-spread through a lot of areas. Said it once, and I’ll say it again, NOTHING like what happened last weekend was even close to what happened during the last LRC pattern.

      • ada October 12, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

        Completely agree with you Three.

      • f00dl3 October 12, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

        One could easily argue that the reason we had so much rain is that trough over Colorado. The trough was over Montana during the last time it came through 37 days prior in late August, early September. That produced major flooding in Minnesota (remember that blogger who said they had like 14″ of rain in MN?) – and when me and my wife went to Iowa we wanted to go camping but it rained every single night. Manhattan KS had over a foot of rain from that one as well, if I recall, they had flooding. One could easily say the only 2 differences were (1) a low pressure area kicked out from the western trough, which did not happen last time. Hence why Gray said the new LRC pattern began on Friday, October 5th, not Thursday, October 4th – Gary acknowledged inadvertently that the trough there was part of the old pattern, just the way it behaved was part of the new pattern after the trough already established it’s self. Furthermore, this storm system giving us rain today is a byproduct of a Pacific tropical cyclone which was also present in the last pattern. The LRC last year did not develop until about mid-October.

        One could also argue, that based on that, if the trough is not present in the new LRC, that that low that formed out of the trough may also not be in the same location next time through as well. That could throw a screwball into the 15″ of rainfall event being the new pattern vs the old pattern, or maybe just a happen stance that both the new and old patterns were transitioning and created a happen-chance setup that will never happen again.

        On the other flipside of that coin is that if the other pattern that rhymes with steady is correct, then this is all the new LRC and began developing in late July, well before the Autumnal Equinox that Gary states would be when the pattern starts showing any signs of changing.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 12, 2018 at 8:52 am - Reply

      Keith – tropical systems are the least important indicator of the pattern, I wouldn’t pay much attention to that. Just look at how much rain has fallen over KS the past 2 weeks, and the way these systems are now developing right in the middle of the country instead of being weak until they pass us by to the east. This is for sure very different!

    • Skylar October 12, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

      Even in the driest and wettest years, there are still going to be “active” and “inactive” periods no matter what part of the world you are in. It is most evident in the tropics with the MJO, but the phases of rising/sinking air and moisture/lack of that pass through every few weeks impact the mid latitudes as well.

    • Johnny October 12, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      Oh boy

    • Troy October 12, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

      We really have had a different pattern to begin this years LRC than last year. I know some areas had rain in October but many in the Central and West did not. Those storms were only a ripple in the flow not a huge trough like we have seen lately. Also last October was one of the windiest months I can ever remember with multiple days with 50 mph wind gusts out of the NW. To me its all about getting a trough in the Western US. You need that to get storms from the SW which are the big snow producers and severe weather producers come spring in KS. The past several years has featured a ridge in the West which makes it hard to get snowfall of any amount or severe weather in the spring. If you question the LRC just wait 50-60 days as this pattern should be really easy to pick out.

  7. Frankie October 12, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

    12km NAM has a 1-2 in band over the Northern part of the metro. Let’s not totally discount this chance like many are doing. NAM is now fully on board. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018101212&fh=-6

  8. Snow Miser October 12, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

    It’s too bad the Chiefs aren’t playing at home on Sunday, it would be kinda cool seeing them play in the snow in October. 😀

  9. Mr. Pete October 12, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    Would any snow that falls really stick?

  10. BSMike October 12, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    Anyone,

    If this rain we have today comes back later on in winter how much snow would it be?

    • j-ox October 12, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

      ROUGH snow estimate:
      My 4/10″ of rain would equal 3″-5″ of avg KC wettish snow. If it was really cold, this could work out to 6″+.

  11. f00dl3 October 12, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    Holy 12z GFS Batman!

  12. f00dl3 October 12, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

    12z GFS deepens it out then rips it apart right as it starts looking good. NAM shows it looking good for us but not as deep. If the storm is a blend of the NAM and GFS and has a bit further south track we may be in for a treat.

    • Psychotic Aardvark October 12, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

      Do you have links to it?

  13. Numb3rsGuy October 12, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    I live in eastern Iowa and as we speak it is snowing. It’s above freezing so it isn’t sticking, but October 12th is still a little early for us.

    Fun fact: Average first accumulating snow in Kansas City is November 28th!

  14. Snow Miser October 12, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

    Remember it was Tuesday the FV3 first started showing snow in our area for this coming Sunday. Here’s the 0Z Monday run valid on Sunday:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018100900/fv3p_asnow_us_27.png

  15. KCBearcatFan October 12, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    Gary – You have mentioned several times that the new LRC is just now taking shape and that it all started last weekend.

    How is it that you can relate the hurricanes near Florida to match the new LRC too? Is this because right now the two are fighting for supremacy?

    • Gary October 12, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

      Michael began forming in the old LRC on October 2nd, and it was caught in the change. So, it is related to the old and caught in the new. The pattern doesn’t stop cycling, it is always cycling. What separated Weather2020, is that it is cycling regularly. The new pattern has started.

      Gary

  16. Farmgirl October 12, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

    Are we going to get an autumn? We went from winter to summer in at the beginning of May. Had a two nice 70 degree days with low humidity in September, and now back to cold, wet winter like temps. Not a happy camper.

  17. A1hoops October 12, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

    Well for those that said we are around a 35-39 day cycle you can cancel that thought. The “competitor” says this cycle is longer than last year and over 50 days

    • f00dl3 October 12, 2018 at 2:41 pm - Reply

      Maybe 35-39 day harmonics in a longer cycle?

      Real test will be to see if we have a major deep western trough and bombing low over the 4 corners November 11-15. Given thermodynamics I don’t think it will be freezing rain or snow. And if that does pan out, watch out for the systems both on November 16-18 and Nov 20-22 as they could be could be snow producers.

      • f00dl3 October 12, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

        What is interesting is if you go back to 500 millibar maps during the last week of August/first week of September you can see all these storms if you look at the ripples on the 582 millibar line southwards. Everything north of the 582 millibar line appears to be 75-80% old pattern. But when you look at the 500 millibar maps from October 3rd onwards, it almost appears if everything north of the 582 millibar line “filled in” to fill in the void space left behind by the old pattern retreating – or maybe that can be viewed as air filling in from the poles pushing south against the storm tracks that may have started shifting in late August?

  18. KS Jones October 12, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    The NWS predicts an 80% chance of snow for here out west. The NWS doesn’t make a prediction as to how much, but WeatherUnderground gives us a 100% chance of 1″ to 3″ of snow beginning on noon Sunday.

    • Heat Miser October 12, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

      Snowflake cancelled this year….first inch before it started…lol

      • Heat Miser October 12, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

        Snowflake contest cancelled I meant

  19. Vernon T. Taggert October 12, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

    Hey, I appreciate all you guys put on here and I am impressed with your knowledge, after the first day of the cycle is decided, would one of you please make up a calendar showing when it started and the all the repeats for the next year.

    • Richard October 12, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

      First day of the cycle has already been decided.
      It was last Saturday 10/6/18
      But as for the repeats or cycle length, won’t know until mid Nov.

  20. Richard October 12, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    Gary
    What if first inch happens before the fontest starts ?

    The snow is measured right outside the kshb studio, correct ? Not sure if that is what you use, or measurements at KCI

    • Richard October 12, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

      * contest not fontest

  21. Richard October 12, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

    Damn
    De’Anthony Thomas fractured his leg in practice on Thursday.

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