Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael, 15″ Of Rain Near KC, & What’s Next?

/Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael, 15″ Of Rain Near KC, & What’s Next?

Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael, 15″ Of Rain Near KC, & What’s Next?

Good morning bloggers,

Topping the weather news is powerful CAT 4 Major Hurricane Michael taking aim on Florida this morning.  This verifies another incredible prediction made by Weather2020 months ago. If you remember in May, Weather2020 put out a press release with this prediction:  “there is a 90 percent chance that Florida will have at least one hurricane make landfall this season.  Applying this innovative technique, the target hot spot for hurricane activity near the United States this season is over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida“.  The predicted “hot spot”, which is the location each year where Weather2020 predicts will have the most likely hurricane landfalls, extended from North Carolina to New Orleans.  It was also predicted that Texas would have a very quiet hurricane season, since it was not in the hot spot, and this was an important prediction after last years, also predicted 55 days before it formed to happen within five days of the eclipse, Major Hurricane Harvey.  Major Hurricane Michael has become quite powerful and may still reach CAT 5 strength.

Major Hurricane Michael at 6:40 AM Central Time (7:40 AM eastern):

Screen Shot 2018-10-10 at 6.50.58 AM

This prediction was made in January (left) to form around September 1st in the cycling pattern described by the LRC.  And, this is now the fourth time this season a storm has gone almost directly over this predicted spot. Tropical Storm Gordon, as highly predicted 8- months in advance; Subtropical Storm Alberto which formed right on cycle in May; Hurricane Nate, around a year ago; and Major Hurricane Michael.  Another incredible prediction by using the LRC!

Screen Shot 2018-10-10 at 7.01.15 AM

There has never been a CAT 4 storm to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle, and it appears this will be the first one ever.  Imagine having months time to prepare, as they did have by using the LRC prediction.

Now imagine getting 15 inches of rain near KC during the first 10 days of October.  This is what just happened.  The weather pattern had the massive change, and I think we will all agree that we had massively different results than anything we have experienced in the past few years. Oh, we have had isolated rainfall amounts that were excessive, but this wide spread? No way!  Olathe may have gotten that one more hundredth to reach 10″ of rain overnight.

Rainfall Totals as of yesterday evening: 

IMG_5310

A few spots have come in at over a foot of rain in this past week and even some reports of 15 inches around Overland Park.  I raced back from Las Vegas to get here in time to track the band of heavy showers and thunderstorms and there was one tornado warning. Maybe there should have been a second one for Johnson county as we have had some videos come in showing what appears to be a tornado on the ground just west of I-35 between Olathe and Shawnee, KS.  You can see a well defined hook echo in this fast moving small cell at 3:30 PM yesterday.  We showed this on the air, and there was never a warning for it, and maybe it should have been warned?

unnamed

Conditions were favorable for tornadoes yesterday, and take a look at the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center:

today

There were 26 tornado reports, and very few hail reports.  I thought tornadoes were the main threat yesterday, and this is what ended up happening.  Okay, so what is next in line?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with some misty drizzle this morning.  High:  55°
  • Thursday: The low will be near 36°, then sunny and nice.  High:  56°
  • Friday: Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain. High:  49°
  • New England Forecast in Boston on Sunday night:  It looks great for Sunday Night Football with light winds and seasonal temperatures in Boston Sunday night! Go Chiefs!
  • 5

This forecast map above shows Hurricane Michael, still organized on Friday, Tropical Storm Sergio crossing over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, and another rain event, a cool rain event this time predicted to be centered over the wet grounds around our region in Kansas City. Temperatures are likely to be in the 4os Friday with this rain, which is now up to a 90% chance of happening. It will be time to turn on the furnace.

It is looking nice with light winds on Sunday night for the big game between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and New England. A Chiefs victory would put them in the drivers seat for home field throughout the playoffs. I know it is early, and it is fun to watch this team play lead by Patrick Mahomes.  He has gotten so popular that NBC is having a second Sunday night in a row featuring the Chiefs when the Bengals come to town a week from Sunday. A big test is ahead of this team.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

2018-10-11T05:24:38+00:00October 10th, 2018|General|48 Comments

48 Comments

  1. Frankie October 10, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    Gary what do you think of the FV3 showing accum snow Sunday night?

    • Three7s October 10, 2018 at 8:02 am - Reply

      I’m not sure we’ve ever gotten snow this early in October. I would put it at 0%.

      • Frankie October 10, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

        It’s definitely fun to watch. I’m not too sure how I feel about this new FV3…

    • Snow Miser October 10, 2018 at 8:11 am - Reply

      Here are snowfall totals for Oct at the airport. Earliest date I see is on the 15th in 2001. So getting snow early Monday morning would merely tie a record:
      http://cache.ltvcms.com/wdaf/almanac/octsnow.html

      • snowflakeparkville October 10, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

        Earliest *accumulating* snow was October 17, 1898. So any accumulation at all is enough to break that record.

    • Snow Miser October 10, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      Here’s the FV3 graphic:
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018101006/fv3p_asnow_us_22.png

      The FV3 is “supposed” to be the new-and-improved GFS, so *maybe* we should give it some credence?

      • A1hoops October 10, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

        That 10 inch band in eastern ks is really pushing it tho lol

        • Snow Miser October 10, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

          Probably, but it’s fun to look at anyway. 😀

      • MikeL October 10, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

        The Canadian and Euro both had some snowfall around the area in recent runs so maybe not totally out of the question. Topeka NWS had snow showers in the forecast for Topeka Sunday night and Monday but removed those chances this morning. Will be interesting to see what the models show the next few days.

    • Gary October 10, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

      Well, we quite obviously have to monitor it closely. It would be quite rare this early.

  2. Hockeynut69 October 10, 2018 at 8:12 am - Reply

    In 1996, we had 4-8 inches of snow on October 22nd. It’s not as early as the 14th, but it is still possible to have snow in October. We had flurries last year on Halloween.

  3. Michael Casteel October 10, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    I recorded .63″ this morning up in Maryville with a total of 6.98″ since last Friday. Our local lake is full once again since the drought earlier this summer. Have a great “Hump Day” Bloggers!
    Michael

  4. Stl78(winon,mn) October 10, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    I said awhile back that I thought somewhere in your viewing area would see some snow in October and it just may verify. I’m not putting stock in the models but it is worth monitoring. We may see or fist flakes of the yr tonight up this way. Not ready for it just yet

  5. A1hoops October 10, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

    So now that storm #1 aka Mahomes since it kept throwing out passes for days

    This storm will produce in every cycle in a major way. Watch out late spring/early summer as this will be a major severe weather outbreak!

    In cycles 3 and 4 this storm will bring us a major crippling ice storm. This is the CLASSIC scenario of a stationary front and warm air riding up and over with constant waves. It may end with a little bit of snow but if the storm tracks NW of us like it did yesterday then it will just be ice

    • Three7s October 10, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

      Assuming cold air is in place, otherwise it could be a cold rain.

      • A1hoops October 10, 2018 at 8:44 am - Reply

        Very true

  6. Three7s October 10, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

    The storm coming this Friday should be a snow producer in future cycles. It’s coming in while cold air is already in place and taking a near perfect track. Look out for this one. We’ll name it A-2, or we could call it Frosty Mahomes.

    • Bill in Lawrence October 10, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

      Three 7’s:

      I 100% agree with this. The wave Friday is one to watch

  7. REAL HUMEDUDE October 10, 2018 at 9:05 am - Reply

    How is the hurricane forecast which was based off the OLD LRC, currently applicable? Moreover why is the new tropical pattern just the same as the last hurricane pattern? We are either in New LRC or we arent, right?
    So using that reasoning why is tropics still acting the same? I’m quite confused about that

  8. Jason October 10, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    I’m not happy that this storm wasn’t warned. It would have tracked through the heart of the metro during the beginning of rush hour.

  9. supercell October 10, 2018 at 9:32 am - Reply

    We were on the cell traveling north from Spring Hill through Olathe and I can confirm there was rotation and two brief spin ups. The rotation did reach the ground very briefly but the duration was less than a few seconds. I thought maybe another spotter would have called in the storm, but sirens did not sound. I debated calling it in to get the sirens going, but the storm was dissipating as it moved north and the threat diminished. We broke off the chase at K-10 and Woodland. Here’s my question: The storm had a well defined wall cloud and rotation and did have two quick touchdowns, yet Johnson County emergency services chose not to sound the sirens? Both touchdowns were in fields, but that was by chance. Could easily have been in a subdivision. Had this storm held its strength as it moved through Olathe we would be having a different conversation. Just found it interesting this particular cell was ignored. It was the only show in town in the immediate metro and one would think it would have had the attention of emergency services.

  10. Matt October 10, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Snowflake contest ends in november is what I’m thinking.

  11. Numb3rsGuy October 10, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    Well weather friends, we did it! The last four days are officially the wettest 4 day stretch in KC weather history. We got 9.79″ of rain officially from 10/6-10/9, beating out the total of 9.48″ from 9/12/1977-9/15/1977! This makes this October the 2nd wettest in KC history, with 21 days left to go! The total this month is 9.97″, only beat by 1941 which had 11.94″ total. Interestingly enough, 2014 was the 3rd wettest at 9.29″.

    • Richard October 10, 2018 at 10:28 am - Reply

      Wow

  12. craig October 10, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Hurricane Michael is now down to 928 millibars and on the base velocity radar view, it’s showing winds in excess of 160 mph.
    What a horrible disaster this will be. Prayers for everyone there but especially the media who are on the ground but have NEVER ENCOUNTERED ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE.

    • A1hoops October 10, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      This storm has really blossomed! The intensity forecast for this storm from 3 days out has been terrible! On Sunday they were saying a weak hurricane at landfall to now possibly being a cat 5

  13. ClassyCat October 10, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    Breaking news……..you can all shut your sprinklers down for the year. I think we have enough moisture to carry us until it gets cold enough to make us shut the sprinklers down.

  14. Richard October 10, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

    Gary
    Since you now live in Missourah have you registered to vote ?
    Today is the last day to register 😁

  15. Bill October 10, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    Wait…how is this hurricane related to last year’s LRC? Is KC in a new one but not the gulf? This makes absolutely no sense…just as I was getting on board…

    • Richard October 10, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

      Gary said it got caught up in the new LRC
      And his press release in May was for the 2018 Hurricane SEASON. Which runs through October I think

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 10, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

      Bill…im right there with you. Can’t understand how last LRC is now dictating this LRC, the theory was that every pattern is 100% unique. How is this still new LRC yet behaving like old LRC.?

  16. Kstater October 10, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    Yes it probably will never happen but what happens if the first inch of snow falls before the snowflake contest starts Gary?

  17. RossBo October 10, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    I’m out of town this weekend. Would hate to miss a snow event!

  18. Mr. Pete October 10, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    Hurricane is now nearing CAT 5 status. According to NWS reports

  19. Richard October 10, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

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    • Snow Miser October 10, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

      There’s only 76 days until Christmas.

      • Richard October 10, 2018 at 3:23 pm - Reply

        Snow
        You have OCD
        Obsessive Christmas Disorder 😁

        • Heat Miser October 10, 2018 at 5:52 pm - Reply

          Better that than TDS

  20. Jill October 10, 2018 at 12:19 pm - Reply

    Any thoughts on the chance of rain Sunday in KC?

  21. Brad October 10, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

    You can blame Gerard for showing this at the 5pm newscast tonight. Lol 😂 based off the European run

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018101012/kansas/snow-depth-in/20181015-0000z.html

  22. Snow Miser October 10, 2018 at 6:44 pm - Reply

    The FV3 is, if nothing else, persistent in its forecast:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018101018/fv3p_asnow_us_22.png

  23. Richard October 10, 2018 at 7:49 pm - Reply

    Wow 12:25 to 6:44. over 6 hrs between posts
    Everyone must have been tuned in to hurricane coverage.
    Even Gary is silent on here today.

    That thing is CAT 1 in Georgia. Almost unheard of that far inland, is what I heard.

  24. Brad October 10, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    I wonder what the NAM shows

  25. Kstater October 10, 2018 at 11:08 pm - Reply

    Latest GFS has snow on sunday expanding across most of the state of Kansas.

    • Kstater October 10, 2018 at 11:09 pm - Reply

      Canadian Also has a small band south of 1-70 from KC west

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