Flooding and Michael

/Flooding and Michael

Flooding and Michael

Good Tuesday bloggers,

It has been quite a few days in the the area. We have wiped out the exceptional drought and the 7″ rainfall deficit at KCI. That is really incredible when you think about it.

Here is a radar estimated rainfall total map. A large area of 5″ to 10″ of rain has occurred from northern MO to southeast Kansas. A few locations have seen 10″ to 12″ of rain! So, it will not take much new rain to create flooding.

1

There are Flood and Flash Flood watches from Canada to Mexico! The light green are flood and river flood warnings. There is also a hurricane warning along the Florida coast as Micheal heads north from the southern Gulf of Mexico.

5

Why are we having all of this rain? First, in the upper levels there is a strong storm system, upper level low over four corners. The low is barely moving and sending a series of disturbances southwest to northeast from Mexico to Canada along a wavering front. This matches the flood watches and warnings. You can see Michael gaining strength west of Cuba.

3

When you have the disturbances in the upper levels tracking parallel to a wavering front, you get the set up for torrential rain. Monday evening the front was just west of I-35. It has been drifting west and east for the last few days. That is why it seems cold one minute and muggy the next. Temperatures ranged from the 70s to low 80s east of the front to 40s and 50s to the west.

2

There was a large area of rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front. You can see the front on this radar. It is the line from southeast of Wichita to near KC. It was drifting east, so we expect the rain and thunderstorms to shift east 50-100 miles by morning.

4

This is the additional rainfall forecast through Wednesday. We are in a 1″ to 4″ rainfall band. You can see a reflection of Michael in the southeast USA. Some of the heavy rain will affect locations that Florence flooded.

6

The big storm in the western USA will lift out into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. This will take the front and rain chances with it as it merges with Michael. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

7

Have a great Tuesday.

Jeff Penner

2018-10-09T16:45:53+00:00October 8th, 2018|General|93 Comments

93 Comments

  1. Mr. Pete October 8, 2018 at 11:07 pm - Reply

    I can’t recall a night like last night. I dumped my rain gage in the evening and woke up this morning to it being overflowed. Mine only measures five inches max.

  2. NoBeachHere October 9, 2018 at 6:31 am - Reply

    Great rainfall!!

    I know it has been mentioned but can you imagine this set up in January. If there was a blocking high intensifying as the main low was moving out towards us, could be several days of snow, if cold enough.

  3. Jill October 9, 2018 at 6:34 am - Reply

    Somebody may have mentioned this before and I apologize if so. Great site at https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours. Wish it went back further than 72 hours. Look at the huge area of precip that has fallen over Kansas. Wow, what a change this is compared to the past LRC!

  4. George October 9, 2018 at 6:34 am - Reply

    Got 7 inches through last night at my house in OP. 87th and Antioch. Side note – looks like FSU is gonna get pounded by a second Hurricane in less than a week

    • LYITC41 October 9, 2018 at 6:44 am - Reply

      I’m not a fan of FSU so I enjoyed that! Just hope it’s not too bad down there. Looks like Amarillo has been getting some decent rain lately so I guess the evil agents from Area 69 have hacked the windfarms there in the panhandle.

  5. Bill in Lawrence October 9, 2018 at 7:05 am - Reply

    Happy Tuesday everyone!!

    Picked up another 1/2 inch last night which brings my total at this moment to 4.5 since Saturday. I am fully aware many will be skeptical of that amount, but the radar estimates that Jeff posted do bear that out….I am located right on the yellow/green line. Wonderful rain for Douglas County…so badly needed!!

    If this set up can indeed produce a snow storm in either cycles 3 or 4, (look at how the cold air has bounced around in cycle 1….this looks to be a nightmare to forecast in the winter and early spring cycles…) Jeff’s radar estimates show pretty clearly where the heavier bands will set up.

    Have a great Tuesday everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  6. Rodney October 9, 2018 at 7:29 am - Reply

    On the east side of Lawrence we are almost at 7 inches. This is nuts.

  7. ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 7:29 am - Reply

    I’m not skeptical Bill. I haven’t checked rain gauge this morning yet, but I’m over 14 inches since and including Friday morning in south Overland Park at 143rd/Nieman (Switzer) area. Looks like the heavier training cells have been this way. It’s too much rain.

  8. Mr. Pete October 9, 2018 at 7:58 am - Reply

    Measured another inch overnight. Total of 11 inches in four days. And counting.

  9. Michael Casteel October 9, 2018 at 8:17 am - Reply

    I recorded 1.95″ this morning with more still coming! I have a 8 day total of 6.43″ up here in Maryville. Not near as much as you guys further south, however our ponds are full! Have a great and soggy day bloggers!
    Michael

  10. Johnny October 9, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Finally no more bitching

    • Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

      Amen

  11. Numb3rsGuy October 9, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    I took a look at the rainiest three day stretches in KC weather history, and right now we are officially the 3rd wettest!

    1. 9.39″ 9/11/1977-9/13/1977
    2. 7.93″ 8/14/1969-8/16/1969
    3. 7.47″ 10/6/2018-10/8/2018

    If we rack up more than 1.87″ today, we could reach the 2nd wettest for 10/7/2018-10/9/2018

    Pretty impressive!

    -Numb3rsGuy

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 9, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

      What about the infamous Plaza flood event? Where does this stack up against that event? I think that was 11-15″ over 3 day span, I would say it either came in a huge burst that overwhelmed Brush Creek, or our storm water management was just that much poorer back then which resulted in the catastrophic outcome. The recent improvements have made a huge difference!

      • Numb3rsGuy October 9, 2018 at 10:18 am - Reply

        The data above is from the official recording station at KCI. It is quite possible other places have received more rain in 3 days such as at the plaza flooding event or the Arrowhead Stadium flood, but those deluges are highly localized. I wish I was omniscient and knew data for places outside official recording stations, but alas, I’m just a Numb3rsGuy. 🙂

        • Troy October 9, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

          The High Plains Climate Site and it has data from Cooperative Observers. There are probably half a dozen in my county and its very rural. It takes a while to figure out how to get what you want but it has a bunch of data.

          • KS Jones October 9, 2018 at 3:45 pm - Reply

            Troy,
            Would that website have information about winter conditions that followed the September-October, 1973 (calendar-year) flooding? From what I’ve gathered, flooding on the Blue & Republican Rivers was exceptionally bad.

            https://books.google.com/books?id=8DxSAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA289&lpg=PA289#v=onepage&q&f=true
            In 1973, a series of severe floods occurred on streams throughout the central and east-central parts of the State during 3 weeks from late September to mid-October. Abundant precipitation preceded the floods of September 26–28 (water year 1973), when as much as 11 inches fell during the 4 days of September 25–28. Several locations reported precipitation in excess of 7 inches on September 26. The flooding was most severe in Rattlesnake and Cow Creeks in the south-central part of the State and in the Smoky Hill River, its tributaries, and tributaries of the Republican River in the north-central part. Light to moderate precipitation continued until October 10 when additional rainfall—as much as 5 inches in 3 days—began in the central, north-central, and east-central parts of the State. Severe flooding occurred during October 11–13 (water year 1974) in the downstream reaches of the Smoky Hill, Solomon (fig. 3, site 2), and Saline Rivers in the north-central part of the State, along the upstream reach of the Little Arkansas River in the central part, and along the Marais des Cygnes River near the Kansas-Missouri State line.

        • Donnie October 9, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

          Check out Stormwatch.com.

          It has a bunch of official rain gauges from areas around the metro. These are gauges that are along bridges by creeks. Usually pretty accurate comparing my yard’s gauge to the ones close by. I do not have any stake in that business, but has good data.

    • Richard October 9, 2018 at 10:30 am - Reply

      Numbersguy
      Thanks again !
      Where does the 3 day total from remnants of Isaac rank
      I forget what year that was

      • Numb3rsGuy October 9, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

        Richard,

        The remnants of Isaac hit Kansas City August 31st-September 1st in 2012. Over this stretch, KCI got 1.48″ of rain, the downtown airport got 4.92″, and pleasant hill got 4.61″ of rain. So it looks like the southern part of the metro got 4-5″ of rain in 2 days. KCI got hardly anything in comparison. That’s the hard part about records for precipitation, they are often so localized that an event we remember as being a huge deluge may not have registered as significant at KCI.

        Take a look at the Groundhog day blizzard in 2011. KCI got 8.9″ of snow, which is an impressive storm, but Pleasant Hill got 11.3″, Unionville got 14.1″, and places just south and west of there got in excess is 18″. So you either remember that storm as a “big storm” that year, or “THE storm” of the decade. Location location location.

        • Richard October 9, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

          👍

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE October 9, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

    Where’s all this rain everybody talking about? Hasn’t rained at the farm since Saturday, just a few showers this morning. Incredible rain shadow on this event, beware of that signature in the future when KC gets next to nothing while some areas nearby get flooded out. Just a weird storm, now I am the last guy in the region to get a meaningful rain.
    lol.

  13. Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

    Adding it up, it looks like close to five inches since Friday at Lawrence Airport. Sounds like far east side of town towards KC might be closer to seven inches

    • Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 8:54 am - Reply

      …and more to come

    • ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      It’s way too much. Should I be worried about trees coming down? I’ve got a few big ones. One is a big river birch. They are rooted well aren’t they? Western Olathe and southern OP appear to be target for heaviest rains from the entire event, although there’s probably enough to go around it really doesn’t matter……too much. Still haven’t checked gauge this morning. At least it didn’t overflow. Again, right around 16.4 according to my gauge.

  14. matt October 9, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

    could be Supercells in Eastern KS.

  15. ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    Please make it stop.

    • Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

      Never! Muaahahahahahahahhhhh!!!!!

  16. f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

    GFS has really backed off on the cold air THU AM but NAM 3KM shows us still dropping to 36-38F.

  17. ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

    Just dumped out 2.3 inches in gauge. That was from 12:58PM Monday until 9:48AM Tuesday. That brings my 5 day total (Friday through right now) to 16.7 inches. I swear I have the gauge properly placed. There is no splash from house adding to it. I think my back yard is gone. I’m at 143rd and Nieman Rd ,which is about halfway between Switzer and Quivira in south Overland Park for anyone not familiar with area. There is a blogger in west Olathe with a similar total. Can you post?

    • Joshua October 9, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

      ClassyCat, I find that total to be quite wild. I’m in West Shawnee and have received 9.5″ in that same time frame. Its hard to believe because this has been such a widespread event in Johnson county with no big supercells which makes it easier to receive a lot more rain than a nearby location. Considering the radar has been moving primarily to the north, its just hard to imagine West Olathe receiving 7 more inches than West Shawnee. Not saying you aren’t correct just saying its pretty wild.

      • ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

        I’m in OP at 143rd and Switzer. I was referencing another total from a lady on yesterdays’ blog and she’s in West Olathe. This isn’t a snarky comment……but you can come look at my rain gauge. I’ve dumped it out and read it each time. It’s not wild at all. It’s quite real. I’m not sure what else I can do but place the rain gauge like you’re supposed to, read it and dump it when it is full, or when you are recording totals. There are a few others coming in this way as well. I’m certainly not proud to have a rain total like this. I quite wish it was much lower to be honest. My back yard grass is toast.

        • Doug October 9, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

          I can back Classy Cat on the totals in this area also the OP Stormwatch system has similar totals from their rain gauges along Tomahawk Creek.

        • Becca October 9, 2018 at 12:18 pm - Reply

          I am at 143rd and Pflumm and have gotten 10.6 inches which is pretty close to the amount recorded at the Johnson County Exexutive Airport and the Stormwatch rain gauges in the area.

      • ClassyCat October 9, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

        While you are correct there have been no supercells where 20 miles away you get zero rain while someone gets 5 inches, and that this has been a widespread event, looking at radar, the heavier cells in the kc metro area have been on the far east side of the KS side of the metro. I think it’s because of the location of the front…..kind of like a winter storm where dry air near the east/south side of the front can actually enhance snowfall close to the front on the west side of, while just west of that area, there is snowfall, but more general and slightly less intense. Both areas get a big snow, but there is an area close to the front that gets a bit more. Just dumb luck.

    • LYITC41 October 9, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

      I will compare my totals to the automated rain gauges (Stormwatch.com) around me and sometimes there will be a 1 to 2 inch difference. The gauge at 143rd and Grant is closest to you and has recorded 11.07″ in the last 7 days. Showery rain can do that, a lot in one spot and not as much close by, sometimes a big disparity in totals.

  18. A1hoops October 9, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    This line of water is not budging east at all. It hits a brick wall at state line and sits there

  19. Mary October 9, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

    9 1/2″ total since Friday – Shawnee KS near 435

  20. Frankie October 9, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

    Could see our first patchy frost thurs AM. Definitely will see temps in the 30s for the first time this season. Seems like this front when it finally comes through will bring a pattern change to the region. Real fall like temps ahead for the foreseeable future

  21. craig October 9, 2018 at 10:20 am - Reply

    With the surface low moving NE out of Oklahoma, it appears that things might get interesting around here by mid-afternoon.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1547.html

  22. Tim in Lone Jack October 9, 2018 at 10:21 am - Reply

    Question is.. will this come back around in December as a massive 3 day snow event???? Lol!!

    • Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

      that’s be sweet

      • Heat Miser October 9, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

        that’d be sweet

        • Mark October 9, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

          For your brother, maybe.

          • HEAT MISER October 9, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

            lol

  23. Richard October 9, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

    Thanks Jeff
    What about the chance for severe this afternoon ?
    With the ground being so saturated it won’t take much wind to bring trees down.
    My one big maple out front.

    • KS Jones October 9, 2018 at 10:50 am - Reply

      The forecast for Olathe shows winds will stay calm for the next 10 days. The highest wind speed in the forecast is on Sunday (10/14) during the next batch of rain.
      https://maps.wunderground.com/q/zmw:66051.1.99999

      • Richard October 9, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

        Thanks KS.
        I just saw mention of possible high winds or even tornadoes.

  24. f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    I think more interesting is that this system if it comes back next summer with this type of setup and cuts off from the flow could create a setup ala ’93.

  25. Richard October 9, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

    There were tornado warnings east of OK City about an hour ago,
    Not supercells, but imbedded in the thunderstorms. Quick spin-ups.
    Another local met said that same environment “could” move up to KC this afternoon.
    Just wonder if any kind of watch will be issued.

  26. Richard October 9, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

    Watching kshb now.
    She is saying good opportunity for strong-severe storms 2-8 p.m.

  27. Mike Holm October 9, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    If we are on a 54 day cycle this would return November 30. Then around January 25th. Cold front then hits around December 5, snowflake contest over.

  28. Mr. Pete October 9, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    Hoping we don’t get any high winds this afternoon with the T-Storms. With the ground so wet and soaked, I could see some large trees coming down.

  29. Frankie October 9, 2018 at 11:45 am - Reply

    KC upgraded to enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening

  30. ginapuff October 9, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    The MD discussion has expanded to include the metro…

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1549.html

    • matt October 9, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

      It says Northcentral MO but say we will still be under a Tornado Watch.

  31. f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    Those rain showers rotating up into our area moving due north along I-44 may really hinder the ability of our atmosphere to destabilize much. Not saying it’s impossible but I’m not totally buying the severe threat for the KC metro area. Models are all over the place right now, but I kind of agree with the HRRR’s latest assessment that we may have storms but the severe stuff won’t get going until after it passes I-435 on the east side of the city.

    • craig October 9, 2018 at 12:49 pm - Reply

      Well, we’ll see f00dl.
      Theres currently a tornado warning north of Coffeyville and the entire line is move NNE so it’s heading directly toward the metro. It should at least be a burst of strong straight line winds when it moves through in a few hours.

      • f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

        Actually I think the bigger threat now that I see how these “showers” are maturing may be from this scattered activity ahead of the line – the storms here no w may push the deeper convection further south, but the isolated showers look to be spinning and could produce a funnel cloud or brief weak spin up.

        • Tim in Lone Jack October 9, 2018 at 1:27 pm - Reply

          .. as I nervously look at a pretty decent cell passing just to my west–sky is black…

    • matt October 9, 2018 at 1:46 pm - Reply

      Most of metro is East of 435.

  32. MikeL October 9, 2018 at 12:27 pm - Reply

    I have a storm total of 6.8″ at my house in SW Topeka so far.

    Looking at current radar… in winter the heavy snow band would be to the NW of our area mainly far northern Kansas into much of Nebraska. Just sayin…

  33. Adam October 9, 2018 at 12:39 pm - Reply

    Colder air and a differently placed jet stream will have an effect on the placement. It may dry it up some also though.

    • Frankie October 9, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

      Wow the FV3 gives us a dusting of snow Monday. Crazy!!

    • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 1:41 pm - Reply

      Am I crazy for saying yay? 😂

      • Snow Miser October 9, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

        No, because I am too.

        Though I suppose we could both be crazy. :-/

        • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

          That is totally possible. Lol!!

    • f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 1:44 pm - Reply

      I have noticed the FV3 has a terribly inaccurate cold bias. lol

      • Snow Miser October 9, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

        It’s fun to watch anyway. Even if it’s make-believe. 😛

  34. Jason Rann October 9, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

    Tornado Watch just issued until 9:00 tonight.

  35. Mr. Pete October 9, 2018 at 1:49 pm - Reply

    Tornado Watch just issued.

    • craig October 9, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply
      • craig October 9, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

        Pretty high probabilities, too, with a 30% of one or more EF2+ tornadoes in the watch area.
        https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0404_prob.html

        • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 2:51 pm - Reply

          Don’t think we’re gonna it that bad. Atmosphere doesn’t seem unstable enough.

          • Hockeynut69 October 9, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

            You might want to let the folks just south of Polo MO know that. They are currently under a tornado warning. Don’t let today’s cloud cover fool you. There is instability, a lot of moisture, low cloud decks and wind shear.

            • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

              By “that bad”, I meant that I don’t think our area will be getting a major, destructive tornado. Trust me, I’m well aware of the watch. Lol.

  36. Weatherby Tom October 9, 2018 at 2:23 pm - Reply

    Have recvd exactly 9 inches of rain since Friday afternoon, absolutely incredible! (Just about 4 miles south of MCI). Wonder what they will show after this is all said and done by tomorrow AM

  37. Fred Nolan October 9, 2018 at 2:30 pm - Reply

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Mod (60%)

  38. craig October 9, 2018 at 3:19 pm - Reply

    New updated MD for the line approaching the metro.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1552.html

  39. craig October 9, 2018 at 3:23 pm - Reply

    WATCH CLOSELY the component cell about 20 miles east of Ottawa. It’s moving NNE toward the SW metro.

    • Craig October 9, 2018 at 3:45 pm - Reply

      Should be a tornado warning any moment now for a clear couplet just west of Spring Hill.

      • Tim in Lone Jack October 9, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

        Yeah.. thats going to go right through the metro.. hopefully its just a radar signature with nothing reaching the ground.

      • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        Signature sure has weakened in a span of 10 minutes

  40. Matt October 9, 2018 at 4:40 pm - Reply

    Mercer Country Tornado Warning.

  41. f00dl3 October 9, 2018 at 4:43 pm - Reply

    That precip shield moving through western Kansas and into Nebraska today man that looks healthy! Imagine if it was December!

  42. Nate October 9, 2018 at 4:57 pm - Reply

    That looked a whole lot like the “old pattern”

    • Adam October 9, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

      Sure wasn’t raining like the old pattern. I had to slow to a crawl on I-35 because it started raining so hard.

  43. Kstater October 9, 2018 at 5:14 pm - Reply

    NWS has a chance of snow now Sunday night and Monday!

    • Brittany October 9, 2018 at 6:25 pm - Reply

      Yay! I’m gonna do my snow dance lol.

  44. Frankie October 9, 2018 at 6:06 pm - Reply

    Let’s watch Sunday night into Monday for the potential of early season SNOW. We will be cold enough for sure. Not sure if there will be any accum.

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