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Good Tuesday bloggers,

It has been quite a few days in the the area. We have wiped out the exceptional drought and the 7″ rainfall deficit at KCI. That is really incredible when you think about it.

Here is a radar estimated rainfall total map. A large area of 5″ to 10″ of rain has occurred from northern MO to southeast Kansas. A few locations have seen 10″ to 12″ of rain! So, it will not take much new rain to create flooding.

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There are Flood and Flash Flood watches from Canada to Mexico! The light green are flood and river flood warnings. There is also a hurricane warning along the Florida coast as Micheal heads north from the southern Gulf of Mexico.

5

Why are we having all of this rain? First, in the upper levels there is a strong storm system, upper level low over four corners. The low is barely moving and sending a series of disturbances southwest to northeast from Mexico to Canada along a wavering front. This matches the flood watches and warnings. You can see Michael gaining strength west of Cuba.

3

When you have the disturbances in the upper levels tracking parallel to a wavering front, you get the set up for torrential rain. Monday evening the front was just west of I-35. It has been drifting west and east for the last few days. That is why it seems cold one minute and muggy the next. Temperatures ranged from the 70s to low 80s east of the front to 40s and 50s to the west.

2

There was a large area of rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front. You can see the front on this radar. It is the line from southeast of Wichita to near KC. It was drifting east, so we expect the rain and thunderstorms to shift east 50-100 miles by morning.

4

This is the additional rainfall forecast through Wednesday. We are in a 1″ to 4″ rainfall band. You can see a reflection of Michael in the southeast USA. Some of the heavy rain will affect locations that Florence flooded.

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The big storm in the western USA will lift out into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. This will take the front and rain chances with it as it merges with Michael. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

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Have a great Tuesday.

Jeff Penner

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Frankie
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Frankie

Let’s watch Sunday night into Monday for the potential of early season SNOW. We will be cold enough for sure. Not sure if there will be any accum.

Kstater
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Kstater

NWS has a chance of snow now Sunday night and Monday!

Brittany
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Brittany

Yay! I’m gonna do my snow dance lol.

Nate
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Nate

That looked a whole lot like the “old pattern”

Adam
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Adam

Sure wasn’t raining like the old pattern. I had to slow to a crawl on I-35 because it started raining so hard.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

That precip shield moving through western Kansas and into Nebraska today man that looks healthy! Imagine if it was December!

Matt
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Matt

Mercer Country Tornado Warning.

craig
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craig

WATCH CLOSELY the component cell about 20 miles east of Ottawa. It’s moving NNE toward the SW metro.

Craig
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Craig

Should be a tornado warning any moment now for a clear couplet just west of Spring Hill.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Yeah.. thats going to go right through the metro.. hopefully its just a radar signature with nothing reaching the ground.

Brittany
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Brittany

Signature sure has weakened in a span of 10 minutes

craig
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craig

New updated MD for the line approaching the metro.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1552.html

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)

Weatherby Tom
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Weatherby Tom

Have recvd exactly 9 inches of rain since Friday afternoon, absolutely incredible! (Just about 4 miles south of MCI). Wonder what they will show after this is all said and done by tomorrow AM

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Tornado Watch just issued.

craig
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craig
craig
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craig

Pretty high probabilities, too, with a 30% of one or more EF2+ tornadoes in the watch area.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0404_prob.html

Brittany
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Brittany

Don’t think we’re gonna it that bad. Atmosphere doesn’t seem unstable enough.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

You might want to let the folks just south of Polo MO know that. They are currently under a tornado warning. Don’t let today’s cloud cover fool you. There is instability, a lot of moisture, low cloud decks and wind shear.

Brittany
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Brittany

By “that bad”, I meant that I don’t think our area will be getting a major, destructive tornado. Trust me, I’m well aware of the watch. Lol.

Jason Rann
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Jason Rann

Tornado Watch just issued until 9:00 tonight.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Snow! Almost …
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Frankie
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Frankie

Wow the FV3 gives us a dusting of snow Monday. Crazy!!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

comment image

Brittany
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Brittany

Am I crazy for saying yay? 😂

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

No, because I am too.

Though I suppose we could both be crazy. :-/

Brittany
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Brittany

That is totally possible. Lol!!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I have noticed the FV3 has a terribly inaccurate cold bias. lol

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It’s fun to watch anyway. Even if it’s make-believe. 😛

Adam
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Adam

Colder air and a differently placed jet stream will have an effect on the placement. It may dry it up some also though.

MikeL
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MikeL

I have a storm total of 6.8″ at my house in SW Topeka so far.

Looking at current radar… in winter the heavy snow band would be to the NW of our area mainly far northern Kansas into much of Nebraska. Just sayin…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Those rain showers rotating up into our area moving due north along I-44 may really hinder the ability of our atmosphere to destabilize much. Not saying it’s impossible but I’m not totally buying the severe threat for the KC metro area. Models are all over the place right now, but I kind of agree with the HRRR’s latest assessment that we may have storms but the severe stuff won’t get going until after it passes I-435 on the east side of the city.

craig
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craig

Well, we’ll see f00dl.
Theres currently a tornado warning north of Coffeyville and the entire line is move NNE so it’s heading directly toward the metro. It should at least be a burst of strong straight line winds when it moves through in a few hours.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Actually I think the bigger threat now that I see how these “showers” are maturing may be from this scattered activity ahead of the line – the storms here no w may push the deeper convection further south, but the isolated showers look to be spinning and could produce a funnel cloud or brief weak spin up.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

.. as I nervously look at a pretty decent cell passing just to my west–sky is black…

matt
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matt

Most of metro is East of 435.

ginapuff
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ginapuff

The MD discussion has expanded to include the metro…

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1549.html

matt
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matt

It says Northcentral MO but say we will still be under a Tornado Watch.

Frankie
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Frankie

KC upgraded to enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Hoping we don’t get any high winds this afternoon with the T-Storms. With the ground so wet and soaked, I could see some large trees coming down.

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

If we are on a 54 day cycle this would return November 30. Then around January 25th. Cold front then hits around December 5, snowflake contest over.

Richard
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Richard

Watching kshb now.
She is saying good opportunity for strong-severe storms 2-8 p.m.

Richard
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Richard

There were tornado warnings east of OK City about an hour ago,
Not supercells, but imbedded in the thunderstorms. Quick spin-ups.
Another local met said that same environment “could” move up to KC this afternoon.
Just wonder if any kind of watch will be issued.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think more interesting is that this system if it comes back next summer with this type of setup and cuts off from the flow could create a setup ala ’93.

Richard
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Richard

Thanks Jeff
What about the chance for severe this afternoon ?
With the ground being so saturated it won’t take much wind to bring trees down.
My one big maple out front.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The forecast for Olathe shows winds will stay calm for the next 10 days. The highest wind speed in the forecast is on Sunday (10/14) during the next batch of rain.
https://maps.wunderground.com/q/zmw:66051.1.99999

Richard
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Richard

Thanks KS.
I just saw mention of possible high winds or even tornadoes.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Question is.. will this come back around in December as a massive 3 day snow event???? Lol!!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

that’s be sweet

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

that’d be sweet

Mark
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Mark

For your brother, maybe.

HEAT MISER
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HEAT MISER

lol

craig
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craig

With the surface low moving NE out of Oklahoma, it appears that things might get interesting around here by mid-afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1547.html

Frankie
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Frankie

Could see our first patchy frost thurs AM. Definitely will see temps in the 30s for the first time this season. Seems like this front when it finally comes through will bring a pattern change to the region. Real fall like temps ahead for the foreseeable future

Mary
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Mary

9 1/2″ total since Friday – Shawnee KS near 435

A1hoops
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A1hoops

This line of water is not budging east at all. It hits a brick wall at state line and sits there

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It looks like the storm system will eventually make its way into Missouri. There sure is a lot of moisture feeding into it.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default&region=sln&animate=true

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Just dumped out 2.3 inches in gauge. That was from 12:58PM Monday until 9:48AM Tuesday. That brings my 5 day total (Friday through right now) to 16.7 inches. I swear I have the gauge properly placed. There is no splash from house adding to it. I think my back yard is gone. I’m at 143rd and Nieman Rd ,which is about halfway between Switzer and Quivira in south Overland Park for anyone not familiar with area. There is a blogger in west Olathe with a similar total. Can you post?

Joshua
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Joshua

ClassyCat, I find that total to be quite wild. I’m in West Shawnee and have received 9.5″ in that same time frame. Its hard to believe because this has been such a widespread event in Johnson county with no big supercells which makes it easier to receive a lot more rain than a nearby location. Considering the radar has been moving primarily to the north, its just hard to imagine West Olathe receiving 7 more inches than West Shawnee. Not saying you aren’t correct just saying its pretty wild.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I’m in OP at 143rd and Switzer. I was referencing another total from a lady on yesterdays’ blog and she’s in West Olathe. This isn’t a snarky comment……but you can come look at my rain gauge. I’ve dumped it out and read it each time. It’s not wild at all. It’s quite real. I’m not sure what else I can do but place the rain gauge like you’re supposed to, read it and dump it when it is full, or when you are recording totals. There are a few others coming in this way as well. I’m certainly not proud… Read more »

Doug
Guest
Doug

I can back Classy Cat on the totals in this area also the OP Stormwatch system has similar totals from their rain gauges along Tomahawk Creek.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I am at 143rd and Pflumm and have gotten 10.6 inches which is pretty close to the amount recorded at the Johnson County Exexutive Airport and the Stormwatch rain gauges in the area.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

While you are correct there have been no supercells where 20 miles away you get zero rain while someone gets 5 inches, and that this has been a widespread event, looking at radar, the heavier cells in the kc metro area have been on the far east side of the KS side of the metro. I think it’s because of the location of the front…..kind of like a winter storm where dry air near the east/south side of the front can actually enhance snowfall close to the front on the west side of, while just west of that area, there… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I will compare my totals to the automated rain gauges (Stormwatch.com) around me and sometimes there will be a 1 to 2 inch difference. The gauge at 143rd and Grant is closest to you and has recorded 11.07″ in the last 7 days. Showery rain can do that, a lot in one spot and not as much close by, sometimes a big disparity in totals.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

GFS has really backed off on the cold air THU AM but NAM 3KM shows us still dropping to 36-38F.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Please make it stop.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Never! Muaahahahahahahahhhhh!!!!!

matt
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matt

could be Supercells in Eastern KS.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Adding it up, it looks like close to five inches since Friday at Lawrence Airport. Sounds like far east side of town towards KC might be closer to seven inches

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

…and more to come

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

It’s way too much. Should I be worried about trees coming down? I’ve got a few big ones. One is a big river birch. They are rooted well aren’t they? Western Olathe and southern OP appear to be target for heaviest rains from the entire event, although there’s probably enough to go around it really doesn’t matter……too much. Still haven’t checked gauge this morning. At least it didn’t overflow. Again, right around 16.4 according to my gauge.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Where’s all this rain everybody talking about? Hasn’t rained at the farm since Saturday, just a few showers this morning. Incredible rain shadow on this event, beware of that signature in the future when KC gets next to nothing while some areas nearby get flooded out. Just a weird storm, now I am the last guy in the region to get a meaningful rain.
lol.

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I took a look at the rainiest three day stretches in KC weather history, and right now we are officially the 3rd wettest!

1. 9.39″ 9/11/1977-9/13/1977
2. 7.93″ 8/14/1969-8/16/1969
3. 7.47″ 10/6/2018-10/8/2018

If we rack up more than 1.87″ today, we could reach the 2nd wettest for 10/7/2018-10/9/2018

Pretty impressive!

-Numb3rsGuy

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

What about the infamous Plaza flood event? Where does this stack up against that event? I think that was 11-15″ over 3 day span, I would say it either came in a huge burst that overwhelmed Brush Creek, or our storm water management was just that much poorer back then which resulted in the catastrophic outcome. The recent improvements have made a huge difference!

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

The data above is from the official recording station at KCI. It is quite possible other places have received more rain in 3 days such as at the plaza flooding event or the Arrowhead Stadium flood, but those deluges are highly localized. I wish I was omniscient and knew data for places outside official recording stations, but alas, I’m just a Numb3rsGuy. 🙂

Troy
Guest
Troy

The High Plains Climate Site and it has data from Cooperative Observers. There are probably half a dozen in my county and its very rural. It takes a while to figure out how to get what you want but it has a bunch of data.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Troy, Would that website have information about winter conditions that followed the September-October, 1973 (calendar-year) flooding? From what I’ve gathered, flooding on the Blue & Republican Rivers was exceptionally bad. https://books.google.com/books?id=8DxSAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA289&lpg=PA289#v=onepage&q&f=true In 1973, a series of severe floods occurred on streams throughout the central and east-central parts of the State during 3 weeks from late September to mid-October. Abundant precipitation preceded the floods of September 26–28 (water year 1973), when as much as 11 inches fell during the 4 days of September 25–28. Several locations reported precipitation in excess of 7 inches on September 26. The flooding was most severe… Read more »

Donnie
Guest
Donnie

Check out Stormwatch.com.

It has a bunch of official rain gauges from areas around the metro. These are gauges that are along bridges by creeks. Usually pretty accurate comparing my yard’s gauge to the ones close by. I do not have any stake in that business, but has good data.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Numbersguy
Thanks again !
Where does the 3 day total from remnants of Isaac rank
I forget what year that was

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

Richard, The remnants of Isaac hit Kansas City August 31st-September 1st in 2012. Over this stretch, KCI got 1.48″ of rain, the downtown airport got 4.92″, and pleasant hill got 4.61″ of rain. So it looks like the southern part of the metro got 4-5″ of rain in 2 days. KCI got hardly anything in comparison. That’s the hard part about records for precipitation, they are often so localized that an event we remember as being a huge deluge may not have registered as significant at KCI. Take a look at the Groundhog day blizzard in 2011. KCI got 8.9″… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

👍

Johnny
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Johnny

Finally no more bitching

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Amen

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded 1.95″ this morning with more still coming! I have a 8 day total of 6.43″ up here in Maryville. Not near as much as you guys further south, however our ponds are full! Have a great and soggy day bloggers!
Michael

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Measured another inch overnight. Total of 11 inches in four days. And counting.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I’m not skeptical Bill. I haven’t checked rain gauge this morning yet, but I’m over 14 inches since and including Friday morning in south Overland Park at 143rd/Nieman (Switzer) area. Looks like the heavier training cells have been this way. It’s too much rain.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

On the east side of Lawrence we are almost at 7 inches. This is nuts.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Happy Tuesday everyone!! Picked up another 1/2 inch last night which brings my total at this moment to 4.5 since Saturday. I am fully aware many will be skeptical of that amount, but the radar estimates that Jeff posted do bear that out….I am located right on the yellow/green line. Wonderful rain for Douglas County…so badly needed!! If this set up can indeed produce a snow storm in either cycles 3 or 4, (look at how the cold air has bounced around in cycle 1….this looks to be a nightmare to forecast in the winter and early spring cycles…) Jeff’s… Read more »

George
Guest
George

Got 7 inches through last night at my house in OP. 87th and Antioch. Side note – looks like FSU is gonna get pounded by a second Hurricane in less than a week

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I’m not a fan of FSU so I enjoyed that! Just hope it’s not too bad down there. Looks like Amarillo has been getting some decent rain lately so I guess the evil agents from Area 69 have hacked the windfarms there in the panhandle.

Jill
Guest
Jill

Somebody may have mentioned this before and I apologize if so. Great site at https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours. Wish it went back further than 72 hours. Look at the huge area of precip that has fallen over Kansas. Wow, what a change this is compared to the past LRC!

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Great rainfall!!

I know it has been mentioned but can you imagine this set up in January. If there was a blocking high intensifying as the main low was moving out towards us, could be several days of snow, if cold enough.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I can’t recall a night like last night. I dumped my rain gage in the evening and woke up this morning to it being overflowed. Mine only measures five inches max.