Flash Flood Warning: Water Rescues In Kansas City This Morning

/Flash Flood Warning: Water Rescues In Kansas City This Morning

Flash Flood Warning: Water Rescues In Kansas City This Morning

Good morning bloggers,

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20 kids and the driver were rescued by firefighters this morning as waters rise. This school bus was caught in the rising water and I got this picture from KSHB.com.  What a pattern change bloggers! Pretty amazing, and we are far from done.  How much rain have you all received. The LLRI worked for the first time in years. I finally missed a weather event. LLTI stands for Lezak’s Leaving Town Index.  It looks like some rainfall totals will approach or exceed 10 inches of rain by Tuesday night.  Areas around two counties southeast of KC have not had as much, and this may be the targeted area Tuesday night.  A wide spread rain event from KC all the way to western Kansas. Here is the radar as of 7:30 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-10-08 at 7.15.14 AM

This map above shows the rainfall pattern, something, we in the KC area, have not witnessed in many years.  A storm developing over western states is getting kicked out by a second storm digging southeast over Idaho by tomorrow. Both systems combined show the negatively tilted trough aloft and the developing hurricane on these next two maps.

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A strong upper level storm, shown above, is continuing to move towards KC. It will become negatively tilted as shown below as the strong upper level low gets kicked out into the plains Tuesday night. Hurricane Michael will be strengthening at the same time and targeting the Florida Panhandle.  This active pattern isn’t going to calm down until after this next weekend, even though we will get a little break after Tuesday night. There is another system that may be combining with what is left of Hurricane Sergio.

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While all of this is going on in the heartland of the United States, take a look at the tropics.  It has activated again.

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Screen Shot 2018-10-08 at 7.43.59 AM

We have Tropical Storm Michael, that will become a strengthening hurricane and treating the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  We have Sergio, that will be sending moisture our way. And, we have Leslie that has been alive for a very long time, named for 16 days now.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  We will move into the warm sector and be in the low 80s this afternoon. The rain should cut off for a while.
  • Tonight-Tuesday: The next rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move in with a 100% chance of rain. High:  77°
  • Tuesday night:  Thunderstorms with very heavy rain.  Total rainfall by Wednesday morning to approach 1 foot, the total since this pattern began.
  • Wednesday:  Drying out and much cooler.  High:  59°

I am out of town, in Vegas.  I will read through your comments later. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. What a beginning to this years pattern.  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-10-08T21:36:28+00:00October 8th, 2018|General|78 Comments

78 Comments

  1. Snow Miser October 8, 2018 at 8:18 am - Reply

    I got very little sleep last night, kept getting awaken by thunder. Also had water in my garage this morning.

  2. Melanie October 8, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    In Eastern Shawnee, we have received 7.5″ of rain since Friday. Most of that fell yesterday and overnight.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 8, 2018 at 11:36 am - Reply

      Water in my MANCAVE!
      OH NOOOOOOOOOOO

  3. Jim October 8, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    Since this is a part of the “new LRC cycle”, I can’t wait for Gary’s 100″ of snow prediction.

  4. Kurt October 8, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    4.5 inches here near St Joseph, hoping this isn’t the only signature storm in this lrc. It’s s good start to getting out of our defucit. Hoping for more in the coming weeks after harvest is done. Thought we’d get much more but have been on the edge of heavier rains most of the weekend

  5. Bill in Lawrence October 8, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Good morning to you sir!! Hope you are having fun in Vegas!!!

    We picked up 1.5 last night which brings my total from Saturday morning (did not rain Friday night) to 3.8 inches…it has been a wonderful beneficial much needed rain but not quite enough to get things running in my specific location. Not going to complain….we so needed this rain!!!

    Have a great day everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Jason October 8, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      I’m up to 5.4″ just a few miles from you Bill (since Friday night/Saturday morning)

      • Bill in Lawrence October 8, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

        Jason:

        I know man…it is kind of crazy…I am kind of in a little area where the heavier cells just were short bursts. I am pretty confident in the location of my gauge etc so I really think this is just one of those situations where 10-15 miles can indeed make a difference. Of course, I am kind of splitting hairs…3.8 inches is still a fantastic rain…it just has not been enough to really run much. Washington Creek by my house was still just a trickle as of this morning…

        • Jason October 8, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

          I have 2 gauges about 200 feet apart and they were within .10″ of each other.

          • Bill in Lawrence October 8, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

            Jason:

            I have no doubt you received 5.4 inches….I really think this is a case where one cell maximized one area and not another…..none of the smaller creeks nor Washington Creek are running at the moment in my area…same thing happened in August of 2017 bu tin reverse….I received close to 9 inches but in town was only around 3-4 inches…..Kansas weather for ya…..

            • Jason October 8, 2018 at 12:48 pm - Reply

              I should have elaborated morning. I knew you weren’t questioning my amounts. Was just adding that I have 2 rain gauges of different types to verify results. Definitely one cell maximizing an area. Will be interesting to see how this pans out during the winter months.

              • Bill in Lawrence October 8, 2018 at 1:33 pm

                Jason:

                It will be interesting for sure in the winter….I think this set up in winter and early spring is going to be a tough one to track for our area…..serious warm air issues etc….models will have a tough time getting a handle on it all….

                So great to finally have rain in Douglas County…been a rough summer moisture wise!!

  6. Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

    Near I29 and 64th 7.5 total which includes a half inch Friday and 2.7 since midnight.

  7. ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 8:59 am - Reply

    Gary, repeating my post from this morning on previous blog before this new one came out. I dumped 6.5 inches out Sunday morning from my 7 inch rain gauge. That includes over an inch from Friday morning when a storm went through parts of Johnson County. This morning, Monday, my 7 inch rain gauge was near the top. From the looks of it, it had about a half inch of room from the 7 inch mark until it overflowed. So, I estimate it had 7.5 in it. It’s not catching water from gutters or leaning and catching extra water. Since Friday morning, that puts me at 14 inches. My back yard has ankle deep standing water in places. I’m always hesitant to report when it is so much more than some others have reported, but a few others are starting to come in at 13 and 12 inches, so I’m pretty confident it’s pretty close to correct. It’s seems the ones coming in that high are in southern Johnson County. I think you may need to change your words from some may exceed 10 inches to some may exceed 15 inches. I’m at 143rd and Switzer.

    • Doug October 8, 2018 at 9:04 am - Reply

      I live in this area as well and I have had 8.1″ of rain since Friday and more has fallen since I left for work. Crazy!

    • Troy October 8, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

      wow

    • Gary October 8, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      I know, I just finished writing the blog saying totals may approach a foot. They may exceed it. What a beginning to this years LRC.

  8. Mr. Pete October 8, 2018 at 9:10 am - Reply

    Since Friday morning I have measured 10.0 inches of rain here at Somerset and Mission Road. When I dumped the gauge this AM it was overflowing so maybe there was more.

    • Jim October 8, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

      10:1 snow ratio when/if this cycles back around in early December and late January, you do the math.

      • Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 10:05 am - Reply

        I thought that too but since we are on the warm side of this system would it be ice? Sleet?

        In any case, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a system this big covering such a protracted area.

        • Three7s October 8, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

          I don’t think we would get snow out of this unless it took a track much further south. There is a chance of ice with this in future cycles if there is cold air in place with a flood of warm moisture riding over the top. Depends on the setup.

  9. Michael Casteel October 8, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    I have recorded 4.14″ of rain since Friday night. If this is what winter looks like I better get another Bobcat! Could be a white Winter! Have a great Monday Bloggers!
    Michael

  10. MikeL October 8, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

    Sitting at 4.20″ storm total in SW Topeka…

  11. Fred Souder October 8, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

    9.5 inches at 127th and Pflumm since Friday

  12. Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

    Just for fun I went and looked at the wettest October’s in KC’s weather history and then compared them to how much snow we got that winter.

    Rank Year Oct Rain Season Snow
    1 1941 11.94 11.6
    2 2014 9.29 14.2
    3 1967 8.63 12.7
    4 1908 8.47 13.2
    5 1998 8.15 11.8
    6 1977 7.67 29.2
    7 1985 7.51 13.4
    8 1974 7.22 20.8
    9 1929 6.72 26.2
    10 1969 6.5 14.7
    11 2007 6.46 24.1
    12 1959 6.27 58.5
    13 2018 6.07 ???

    I hear a lot of people talking about the snow potential this winter based on how wet it is now. The data just goes to show that there really isn’t any correlation. The average above is 20.9″ of snow, but if you take out the 1959-1960 outlier, it becomes 17.4″, which is about average. The median is 14.5″, which is below average. Interestingly enough, the wettest October ever (1941), we had more rain that month than we had snow all winter. Pretty impressive. Let’s wait and see what other factors Gary and the team identify as affecting this year’s LRC before we get excited about snow this winter.

    • Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      The columns kind of bunched together there, but you should be able to see the separation. Supposed to be four columns of data there: rank, year, October rainfall, and season snow.

      • Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

        Great stuff as usual!

        I’m curious about the correlation between October precip and total winter precip (not just snowfall) since snowfall is totally dependent on liquid to frozen ratios, plus you can end up on the warm side of the system (like the past 24 hours) and get just rain.

        In other words, is October precip (and the start of a new LRC) a harbinger of winter precip? Or is it random? (which is my hunch)

        • Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

          Good idea on the total precip analysis. I ran the numbers for the amount of precip in Dec-Feb for each of the winters with the wettest Octobers, and the results are even a tad more depressing than before. With the exception of 2007, we got less precip in Dec-Feb combined than we did the previous October alone. Here are the numbers:

          1 1941 11.94 5.06
          2 2014 9.29 4.01
          3 1967 8.63 3.19
          4 1908 8.47 3.27
          5 1998 8.15 5.2
          6 1977 7.67 2.08
          7 1985 7.51 2.51
          8 1974 7.22 5.25
          9 1929 6.72 4.01
          10 1969 6.5 1.39
          11 2007 6.46 6.98
          12 1959 6.27 5.83
          13 2018 6.07 ???

          The columns have the same heading as before except the last column is Dec-Feb precip.

          • Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

            Nice! But now I’m curious as to how those numbers correlate to averages for the period, i.e. is above normal in Oct = above normal in the winter?

      • Mike October 8, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

        Thank you Numb3rsGuy. That is a good stuff. MMike has also demonstrated that there really isn’t any correlation as well in a previous blog.

      • JoeK October 8, 2018 at 11:16 am - Reply

        Numbers guy,

        Good info. With that said, statistics can only be used as a baseline. If you believe in the LRC, statistics are mostly useless as the theory is that each LRC is unique and different than anything we have experienced prior. For example, most of the long range forecasts you see from other sources use statistics to determine what to expect. Most are counting on an El Nino and forecasting based off of averages. Make sense? While good to take a look at, I don’t believe they lend any credible insight into the coming year. Just my 2 cents

        • Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply

          That’s a really good point.

        • Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 1:02 pm - Reply

          JoeK,

          I totally agree. I like statistics to look at the past, but I know they aren’t an indication of what will happen. I know the LRC is unique every year and that this year won’t be like past years. I just like looking at the numbers. 🙂

          • JoeK October 8, 2018 at 2:03 pm - Reply

            Numbers,

            Agreed…glad you understood the point I was attempting to make. By all means, continue to post them as they are very interesting to see and helpful to many, including myself.

    • Heat Miser October 8, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

      I haven’t seen anything like this here in years and years….it’s awesome for a change.

    • Richard October 8, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

      Numbersguy
      Thanks
      Exactly. Let’s wait before getting too excited.
      Those numbers show you cannot judge snowfall by amnt of rain in Oct.

      But what I do agree with others saying how the trough is digging so deep to the sw.
      4 corners is where our big snows have come from. So that is one thing to get excited about.

      • Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 11:13 am - Reply

        I don’t know what the weather patterns were those other years with wet Octobers, I just know the outcome in terms of amount of snow and total precip. I do agree though, the trough digging into the SW with hurricane remnants coming up from the 4 corners area could be a good sign at a snowy winter for us.

      • JoeK October 8, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

        Richard,

        Exactly? Do you think this validates your “wait and see” position? It doesn’t. As I stated above, if you believe in the LRC, statistical data is irrelevant. I am confident, based on numbers guy recent post, he understands this very thing as any statistician does. Statistics are a baseline that give us a general idea as to probabilities, not a glimpse of what is to come. Weather is its own beast. Remember, my thoughts will only make sense if you align with the LRC and if you don’t believe in or understand the LRC, statistics play a primary role as can be observed by many other long range forecasts. Hopefully, that makes sense.

        • NoBeachHere October 8, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

          One way to kind of track that and establish a baseline for precipitation totals would be to research barometric pressure, precip type and totals to our SW, including for corners. Although still suspect would be the track of storms which then brings in research to all cities to our SW. I think you could add in temps and temp difference after storms then get an idea of the intensity of storm, temp difference before, during and after storm, precip type during and after storm.
          That would probably make my head hurt but it’s doable.
          All that being said, that’s a very deep rabbit hole of info and totally dependent on accurate reporting from individual cities.
          I’d rather just enjoy the evolution of this LRC and see what happens.

        • Richard October 8, 2018 at 12:02 pm - Reply

          JoeK
          Well pardon me for saying exactly.
          No, it does not validate anything I said. For pete’s sake.
          It was not meant to upset you or anyone.
          Wait and see like Gary said. Thats all it meant.
          I agree, Numbersguys stats do not mean squat !

          • Numb3rsGuy October 8, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

            As previously states, I know my numbers can’t be used to predict the future or this year’s outcome. I just think they are interesting to look at.

            • JoeK October 8, 2018 at 2:00 pm - Reply

              Numbers Guy,

              I realize that and also assumed you understood what I was communicating. I enjoy your posts as well as they provide a value. Hopefully, you read the literal meaning behind my response and understood that I was attempting to help those who aren’t as intimate with statistics, understand what they represent and how to interpret them. I am glad you provide them as they are very interesting and fun, to contemplate when attempting to get a handle on our crazy weather

        • Richard October 8, 2018 at 12:04 pm - Reply

          I have always believed in the LRC. And I have stated it emphatically many many times

        • Richard October 8, 2018 at 12:06 pm - Reply

          JoeK
          Did you not see where I said the sw dig is enough to get excited about ?
          But yet you pounced on the word exactly ?
          I give up

          • JoeK October 8, 2018 at 1:56 pm - Reply

            Richard,

            I assume you are old enough to understand you can’t read tone in text. With that said, my response to you was not an attack nor was it a dig so take a deep breath and try to read beyond the surface. If you took my comments personally, apologies as that was not my intent

    • Mike Holm October 8, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      I have just done a quick crosscheck of ENSO during those years. Of all the 20+ snow events, and above, came from ENSO neutral years with one El Niño.

    • KS Jones October 9, 2018 at 12:25 am - Reply

      How did October 1973 score? 
      On March 16, 2017, Gary asked:
      “I have to check, maybe someone can do this for me today, but I think the lowest annual total ever is still over 20″. This means we will still get 18 to 20 more inches of rain at least.”
      Gary

      To which f00dl3 replied:
      Based on CF6 data from Kansas City, dating to 1900:
      1973: 55.26″

      https://books.google.com/books?id=8DxSAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA289&lpg=PA289#v=onepage&q&f=true
      In 1973, a series of severe floods occurred on streams throughout the central and east-central parts of the State during 3 weeks from late September to mid-October. Abundant precipitation preceded the floods of September 26–28 (water year 1973), when as much as 11 inches fell during the 4 days of September 25–28. Several locations reported precipitation in excess of 7 inches on September 26. The flooding was most severe in Rattlesnake and Cow Creeks in the south-central part of the State and in the Smoky Hill River, its tributaries, and tributaries of the Republican River in the north-central part. Light to moderate precipitation continued until October 10 when additional rainfall—as much as 5 inches in 3 days—began in the central, north-central, and east-central parts of the State. Severe flooding occurred during October 11–13 (water year 1974) in the downstream reaches of the Smoky Hill, Solomon (fig. 3, site 2), and Saline Rivers in the north-central part of the State, along the upstream reach of the Little Arkansas River in the central part, and along the Marais des Cygnes River near the Kansas-Missouri State line.

  13. Leon October 8, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

    6.8″ near 75th and Antioch.

  14. Heat Miser October 8, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

    4 inches at Lawrence airport, with 2-4 more inches expected by Wednesday morning. Crazy! Then mabye more late week from hurricane remnants. Also, Hurricane Michael surprising everyone with hurricane status already…now expected to be become major hurricane before landfall in the the gulf. We wanted rain…we got it! LOL

  15. Dan M. October 8, 2018 at 10:42 am - Reply

    4.5” since Friday here just NE of Topeka. Not as much as east of here, but ground is saturated with standing water for the first time since…….. maybe last spring?

  16. Jeffrey W Coomes October 8, 2018 at 10:43 am - Reply

    Hello all Down here in Wichita we had 2 inches as of this morning.Not as much as the rest of you.

  17. Leon October 8, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

    Can y’all help me out? I saw a weather website that had cool visual graphics made from upper air soundings, but I can not remember the site now (and it’s not in my web history anymore). I’ve seen some of it’s forecast model links on Gary’s blog. I have a vague memory that the site name included “nerds” or something like that. It’s not pineappletidbits, but it a site like that. Any ideas?

  18. Rickmckc October 8, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Pretty serious cold front coming late Saturday night, too. 06z GFS shows 850MB temps at -7C by Monday morning, highs in the 40s with NW winds 15-25! No precip at that point.

  19. not believing everything I read October 8, 2018 at 11:04 am - Reply

    12 inches already just south of gardner. 3 day total

    • Adam October 8, 2018 at 2:21 pm - Reply

      I’m convinced there was near a foot in Gardner. It’s just assumption, but there were ponds, and I mean giant ponds, of water in large grassy areas around Gardner this morning. I remember a day in high school, probably 88 or 89, when remnants of a hurricane made it up to kc and we had around 9 inches of rain and more in some spots. The ground looked the same then.

      • Jordan October 8, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

        That was probably Gilbert. We were in Corpus Christi about a week before it made landfall. It ended up just south of Texas then took a sharp turn north and made its way to the Midwest.

        • Adam October 8, 2018 at 4:46 pm - Reply

          It was a huge rain maker I remember that.

  20. KS Jones October 8, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

    We’ve gotten 4.38″ of rain since it began raining Friday night. Our ytd rainfall is now more than our yearly average. This secondary storm season began here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) a month ago when we had 5 consecutive days (9/2 through 9/6) of rain totaling 6.5″. The forecast shows we might get an additional 2″ from now through tomorrow night, for a total slightly less than the first week of September.

  21. Snow Miser October 8, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

    Has anybody besides me noticed the GFS has been coming out earlier on Tropical Tidbits than it used to? Didn’t used to start rolling out until almost 11:30, lately it’s been starting right around 11.

  22. 2Doghouse October 8, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    I just went out to dump the gauge so I can start over. And we added another inch this morning. So I am sitting at 14” in west olathe.

    • ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 1:03 pm - Reply

      I just dumped mine at 12:58pm Monday. It had .4 in it. That brings me to somewhere around 14.4 since Friday morning. The 7.5 I dumped this morning was above the 7 inch top, but not quite overflowing. So, I estimated 7.5 dumped out from Sunday morning through Monday morning….that’s from about 6:30 Sunday morning until just before 1PM Monday afternoon. I may be off a couple of tenths from the 7.5 estimate since the gauge doesn’t go above 7, but it’s close. My back yard still has standing water all over it. Thank goodness this entire rain at least came over a 3 day period and not from a 4-6 hour time period of thunderstorms. That would have made the flash flooding worse.

      • ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

        Actually, that’s 7.9 from Sunday morning at about 6:30AM to 12:58PM Monday. 7.5 dumped out early this morning Monday and another .4 just dumped out.

  23. Blue Flash October 8, 2018 at 11:28 am - Reply

    8″ now so far in Independence.

    Comparable Octobers per my records, we had 7.4″ of rain in the first 13 days of October 2014, and 4.1″ on October 29-30, 2013. Both were followed by pretty average winters as far as snowfall.

  24. Frankie October 8, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

    The monthly average total rainfall in Oct is 3.16″…. and the monthly total as of 11 AM is 7.55″. This is already the 7th wettest October in our weather history and we are only 8 days in.

  25. REAL HUMEDUDE October 8, 2018 at 11:47 am - Reply

    Only about 1.5″ since last Thursday at the Farm, but about 7″ in Shawnee where my house had some small flooding issues. Really need this to stop in the metro, but I could really use a nice rain at the farm to get my creek running.
    Since we are in new pattern, what’s up with the Hurricane still targeting the old LRC hotspot in NE Gulf? How’s that work?

  26. LYITC41 October 8, 2018 at 11:54 am - Reply

    Drought’s done, over 5″ my place and more to come, Indian creek looking like it does when it floods, and as long as no one’s getting hurt I love the rain. Now we can get on to wishcasting this winter’s snow totals and move on from the drought of 2018.

  27. f00dl3 October 8, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

    2.4″ from 3:30 AM to Noon, 9.9″ total near Old Town Lenexa 95th Santa Fe Trail Dr.
    Amazingly enough the Indian Creek Trail under US-69 is actually passable on bicycle…

  28. J. R. October 8, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    4.8 inches in my gauge by Powell Gardens

  29. David McGuire October 8, 2018 at 12:11 pm - Reply

    3.1″ just NE of McLouth KS so far

  30. j-ox October 8, 2018 at 12:13 pm - Reply

    4.4″ since Friday in NW Lawrence.

  31. f00dl3 October 8, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    Well it looks like that next wall of water will be here before 6 PM at this rate… lol

  32. Jordan October 8, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

    Wow, I haven’t seen the Wyandotte County Lake spillway flowing like this in YEARS. There’s an absolute torrent flowing over it.

  33. A1hoops October 8, 2018 at 2:16 pm - Reply

    It’s kind of hilarious that a week ago everyone was begging for rain and now a week later we saying it needs to stop lol

  34. f00dl3 October 8, 2018 at 3:21 pm - Reply

    I think the most ironic thing is that history won’t remember the drought we did have this summer because we are literally having an entire’s season worth of rainfall in a 5 day period, and this will make this year blend with the averages if we don’t end up above average precipitation for the year.

  35. Mr. Pete October 8, 2018 at 3:56 pm - Reply

    Heavy downpour in Prairie Village now

  36. KirksvilleDave October 8, 2018 at 5:00 pm - Reply

    Since Friday we’ve had 4.22” of rain… still 8.65” below normal, but lakes & ponds are filling up!

  37. Matt October 8, 2018 at 5:02 pm - Reply

    Topkea know under Slight Risk.

  38. Matt October 8, 2018 at 5:37 pm - Reply

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