Flash Flood Warning: Water Rescues In Kansas City This Morning

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Good morning bloggers,

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20 kids and the driver were rescued by firefighters this morning as waters rise. This school bus was caught in the rising water and I got this picture from KSHB.com.  What a pattern change bloggers! Pretty amazing, and we are far from done.  How much rain have you all received. The LLRI worked for the first time in years. I finally missed a weather event. LLTI stands for Lezak’s Leaving Town Index.  It looks like some rainfall totals will approach or exceed 10 inches of rain by Tuesday night.  Areas around two counties southeast of KC have not had as much, and this may be the targeted area Tuesday night.  A wide spread rain event from KC all the way to western Kansas. Here is the radar as of 7:30 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-10-08 at 7.15.14 AM

This map above shows the rainfall pattern, something, we in the KC area, have not witnessed in many years.  A storm developing over western states is getting kicked out by a second storm digging southeast over Idaho by tomorrow. Both systems combined show the negatively tilted trough aloft and the developing hurricane on these next two maps.

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A strong upper level storm, shown above, is continuing to move towards KC. It will become negatively tilted as shown below as the strong upper level low gets kicked out into the plains Tuesday night. Hurricane Michael will be strengthening at the same time and targeting the Florida Panhandle.  This active pattern isn’t going to calm down until after this next weekend, even though we will get a little break after Tuesday night. There is another system that may be combining with what is left of Hurricane Sergio.

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While all of this is going on in the heartland of the United States, take a look at the tropics.  It has activated again.

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Screen Shot 2018-10-08 at 7.43.59 AM

We have Tropical Storm Michael, that will become a strengthening hurricane and treating the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  We have Sergio, that will be sending moisture our way. And, we have Leslie that has been alive for a very long time, named for 16 days now.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  We will move into the warm sector and be in the low 80s this afternoon. The rain should cut off for a while.
  • Tonight-Tuesday: The next rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move in with a 100% chance of rain. High:  77°
  • Tuesday night:  Thunderstorms with very heavy rain.  Total rainfall by Wednesday morning to approach 1 foot, the total since this pattern began.
  • Wednesday:  Drying out and much cooler.  High:  59°

I am out of town, in Vegas.  I will read through your comments later. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. What a beginning to this years pattern.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Matt
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Matt
Matt
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Matt

Topkea know under Slight Risk.

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Since Friday we’ve had 4.22” of rain… still 8.65” below normal, but lakes & ponds are filling up!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Heavy downpour in Prairie Village now

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think the most ironic thing is that history won’t remember the drought we did have this summer because we are literally having an entire’s season worth of rainfall in a 5 day period, and this will make this year blend with the averages if we don’t end up above average precipitation for the year.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

It’s kind of hilarious that a week ago everyone was begging for rain and now a week later we saying it needs to stop lol

Jordan
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Jordan

Wow, I haven’t seen the Wyandotte County Lake spillway flowing like this in YEARS. There’s an absolute torrent flowing over it.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Well it looks like that next wall of water will be here before 6 PM at this rate… lol

j-ox
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j-ox

4.4″ since Friday in NW Lawrence.

David McGuire
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David McGuire

3.1″ just NE of McLouth KS so far

J. R.
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J. R.

4.8 inches in my gauge by Powell Gardens

f00dl3
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f00dl3

2.4″ from 3:30 AM to Noon, 9.9″ total near Old Town Lenexa 95th Santa Fe Trail Dr.
Amazingly enough the Indian Creek Trail under US-69 is actually passable on bicycle…

LYITC41
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LYITC41

Drought’s done, over 5″ my place and more to come, Indian creek looking like it does when it floods, and as long as no one’s getting hurt I love the rain. Now we can get on to wishcasting this winter’s snow totals and move on from the drought of 2018.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Only about 1.5″ since last Thursday at the Farm, but about 7″ in Shawnee where my house had some small flooding issues. Really need this to stop in the metro, but I could really use a nice rain at the farm to get my creek running.
Since we are in new pattern, what’s up with the Hurricane still targeting the old LRC hotspot in NE Gulf? How’s that work?

Frankie
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Frankie

The monthly average total rainfall in Oct is 3.16″…. and the monthly total as of 11 AM is 7.55″. This is already the 7th wettest October in our weather history and we are only 8 days in.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

8″ now so far in Independence.

Comparable Octobers per my records, we had 7.4″ of rain in the first 13 days of October 2014, and 4.1″ on October 29-30, 2013. Both were followed by pretty average winters as far as snowfall.

2Doghouse
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2Doghouse

I just went out to dump the gauge so I can start over. And we added another inch this morning. So I am sitting at 14” in west olathe.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I just dumped mine at 12:58pm Monday. It had .4 in it. That brings me to somewhere around 14.4 since Friday morning. The 7.5 I dumped this morning was above the 7 inch top, but not quite overflowing. So, I estimated 7.5 dumped out from Sunday morning through Monday morning….that’s from about 6:30 Sunday morning until just before 1PM Monday afternoon. I may be off a couple of tenths from the 7.5 estimate since the gauge doesn’t go above 7, but it’s close. My back yard still has standing water all over it. Thank goodness this entire rain at least… Read more »

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Actually, that’s 7.9 from Sunday morning at about 6:30AM to 12:58PM Monday. 7.5 dumped out early this morning Monday and another .4 just dumped out.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Has anybody besides me noticed the GFS has been coming out earlier on Tropical Tidbits than it used to? Didn’t used to start rolling out until almost 11:30, lately it’s been starting right around 11.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

We’ve gotten 4.38″ of rain since it began raining Friday night. Our ytd rainfall is now more than our yearly average. This secondary storm season began here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) a month ago when we had 5 consecutive days (9/2 through 9/6) of rain totaling 6.5″. The forecast shows we might get an additional 2″ from now through tomorrow night, for a total slightly less than the first week of September.

not believing everything I read
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not believing everything I read

12 inches already just south of gardner. 3 day total

Adam
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Adam

I’m convinced there was near a foot in Gardner. It’s just assumption, but there were ponds, and I mean giant ponds, of water in large grassy areas around Gardner this morning. I remember a day in high school, probably 88 or 89, when remnants of a hurricane made it up to kc and we had around 9 inches of rain and more in some spots. The ground looked the same then.

Jordan
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Jordan

That was probably Gilbert. We were in Corpus Christi about a week before it made landfall. It ended up just south of Texas then took a sharp turn north and made its way to the Midwest.

Adam
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Adam

It was a huge rain maker I remember that.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Pretty serious cold front coming late Saturday night, too. 06z GFS shows 850MB temps at -7C by Monday morning, highs in the 40s with NW winds 15-25! No precip at that point.

Leon
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Leon

Can y’all help me out? I saw a weather website that had cool visual graphics made from upper air soundings, but I can not remember the site now (and it’s not in my web history anymore). I’ve seen some of it’s forecast model links on Gary’s blog. I have a vague memory that the site name included “nerds” or something like that. It’s not pineappletidbits, but it a site like that. Any ideas?

Jeffrey W Coomes
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Jeffrey W Coomes

Hello all Down here in Wichita we had 2 inches as of this morning.Not as much as the rest of you.

Dan M.
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Dan M.

4.5” since Friday here just NE of Topeka. Not as much as east of here, but ground is saturated with standing water for the first time since…….. maybe last spring?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

4 inches at Lawrence airport, with 2-4 more inches expected by Wednesday morning. Crazy! Then mabye more late week from hurricane remnants. Also, Hurricane Michael surprising everyone with hurricane status already…now expected to be become major hurricane before landfall in the the gulf. We wanted rain…we got it! LOL

Leon
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Leon

6.8″ near 75th and Antioch.

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

Just for fun I went and looked at the wettest October’s in KC’s weather history and then compared them to how much snow we got that winter. Rank Year Oct Rain Season Snow 1 1941 11.94 11.6 2 2014 9.29 14.2 3 1967 8.63 12.7 4 1908 8.47 13.2 5 1998 8.15 11.8 6 1977 7.67 29.2 7 1985 7.51 13.4 8 1974 7.22 20.8 9 1929 6.72 26.2 10 1969 6.5 14.7 11 2007 6.46 24.1 12 1959 6.27 58.5 13 2018 6.07 ??? I hear a lot of people talking about the snow potential this winter based on… Read more »

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

The columns kind of bunched together there, but you should be able to see the separation. Supposed to be four columns of data there: rank, year, October rainfall, and season snow.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Great stuff as usual!

I’m curious about the correlation between October precip and total winter precip (not just snowfall) since snowfall is totally dependent on liquid to frozen ratios, plus you can end up on the warm side of the system (like the past 24 hours) and get just rain.

In other words, is October precip (and the start of a new LRC) a harbinger of winter precip? Or is it random? (which is my hunch)

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

Good idea on the total precip analysis. I ran the numbers for the amount of precip in Dec-Feb for each of the winters with the wettest Octobers, and the results are even a tad more depressing than before. With the exception of 2007, we got less precip in Dec-Feb combined than we did the previous October alone. Here are the numbers: 1 1941 11.94 5.06 2 2014 9.29 4.01 3 1967 8.63 3.19 4 1908 8.47 3.27 5 1998 8.15 5.2 6 1977 7.67 2.08 7 1985 7.51 2.51 8 1974 7.22 5.25 9 1929 6.72 4.01 10 1969 6.5… Read more »

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Nice! But now I’m curious as to how those numbers correlate to averages for the period, i.e. is above normal in Oct = above normal in the winter?

Mike
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Mike

Thank you Numb3rsGuy. That is a good stuff. MMike has also demonstrated that there really isn’t any correlation as well in a previous blog.

JoeK
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JoeK

Numbers guy, Good info. With that said, statistics can only be used as a baseline. If you believe in the LRC, statistics are mostly useless as the theory is that each LRC is unique and different than anything we have experienced prior. For example, most of the long range forecasts you see from other sources use statistics to determine what to expect. Most are counting on an El Nino and forecasting based off of averages. Make sense? While good to take a look at, I don’t believe they lend any credible insight into the coming year. Just my 2 cents

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

That’s a really good point.

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

JoeK,

I totally agree. I like statistics to look at the past, but I know they aren’t an indication of what will happen. I know the LRC is unique every year and that this year won’t be like past years. I just like looking at the numbers. 🙂

JoeK
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JoeK

Numbers,

Agreed…glad you understood the point I was attempting to make. By all means, continue to post them as they are very interesting to see and helpful to many, including myself.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I haven’t seen anything like this here in years and years….it’s awesome for a change.

Richard
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Richard

Numbersguy
Thanks
Exactly. Let’s wait before getting too excited.
Those numbers show you cannot judge snowfall by amnt of rain in Oct.

But what I do agree with others saying how the trough is digging so deep to the sw.
4 corners is where our big snows have come from. So that is one thing to get excited about.

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

I don’t know what the weather patterns were those other years with wet Octobers, I just know the outcome in terms of amount of snow and total precip. I do agree though, the trough digging into the SW with hurricane remnants coming up from the 4 corners area could be a good sign at a snowy winter for us.

JoeK
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JoeK

Richard, Exactly? Do you think this validates your “wait and see” position? It doesn’t. As I stated above, if you believe in the LRC, statistical data is irrelevant. I am confident, based on numbers guy recent post, he understands this very thing as any statistician does. Statistics are a baseline that give us a general idea as to probabilities, not a glimpse of what is to come. Weather is its own beast. Remember, my thoughts will only make sense if you align with the LRC and if you don’t believe in or understand the LRC, statistics play a primary role… Read more »

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

One way to kind of track that and establish a baseline for precipitation totals would be to research barometric pressure, precip type and totals to our SW, including for corners. Although still suspect would be the track of storms which then brings in research to all cities to our SW. I think you could add in temps and temp difference after storms then get an idea of the intensity of storm, temp difference before, during and after storm, precip type during and after storm. That would probably make my head hurt but it’s doable. All that being said, that’s a… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

JoeK
Well pardon me for saying exactly.
No, it does not validate anything I said. For pete’s sake.
It was not meant to upset you or anyone.
Wait and see like Gary said. Thats all it meant.
I agree, Numbersguys stats do not mean squat !

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

As previously states, I know my numbers can’t be used to predict the future or this year’s outcome. I just think they are interesting to look at.

JoeK
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JoeK

Numbers Guy,

I realize that and also assumed you understood what I was communicating. I enjoy your posts as well as they provide a value. Hopefully, you read the literal meaning behind my response and understood that I was attempting to help those who aren’t as intimate with statistics, understand what they represent and how to interpret them. I am glad you provide them as they are very interesting and fun, to contemplate when attempting to get a handle on our crazy weather

Richard
Guest
Richard

I have always believed in the LRC. And I have stated it emphatically many many times

Richard
Guest
Richard

JoeK
Did you not see where I said the sw dig is enough to get excited about ?
But yet you pounced on the word exactly ?
I give up

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Richard,

I assume you are old enough to understand you can’t read tone in text. With that said, my response to you was not an attack nor was it a dig so take a deep breath and try to read beyond the surface. If you took my comments personally, apologies as that was not my intent

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

I have just done a quick crosscheck of ENSO during those years. Of all the 20+ snow events, and above, came from ENSO neutral years with one El Niño.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

How did October 1973 score?  On March 16, 2017, Gary asked: “I have to check, maybe someone can do this for me today, but I think the lowest annual total ever is still over 20″. This means we will still get 18 to 20 more inches of rain at least.” Gary To which f00dl3 replied: Based on CF6 data from Kansas City, dating to 1900: 1973: 55.26″ https://books.google.com/books?id=8DxSAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA289&lpg=PA289#v=onepage&q&f=true In 1973, a series of severe floods occurred on streams throughout the central and east-central parts of the State during 3 weeks from late September to mid-October. Abundant precipitation preceded the floods… Read more »

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

9.5 inches at 127th and Pflumm since Friday

MikeL
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MikeL

Sitting at 4.20″ storm total in SW Topeka…

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I have recorded 4.14″ of rain since Friday night. If this is what winter looks like I better get another Bobcat! Could be a white Winter! Have a great Monday Bloggers!
Michael

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Since Friday morning I have measured 10.0 inches of rain here at Somerset and Mission Road. When I dumped the gauge this AM it was overflowing so maybe there was more.

Jim
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Jim

10:1 snow ratio when/if this cycles back around in early December and late January, you do the math.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

I thought that too but since we are on the warm side of this system would it be ice? Sleet?

In any case, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a system this big covering such a protracted area.

Three7s
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Three7s

I don’t think we would get snow out of this unless it took a track much further south. There is a chance of ice with this in future cycles if there is cold air in place with a flood of warm moisture riding over the top. Depends on the setup.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Gary, repeating my post from this morning on previous blog before this new one came out. I dumped 6.5 inches out Sunday morning from my 7 inch rain gauge. That includes over an inch from Friday morning when a storm went through parts of Johnson County. This morning, Monday, my 7 inch rain gauge was near the top. From the looks of it, it had about a half inch of room from the 7 inch mark until it overflowed. So, I estimate it had 7.5 in it. It’s not catching water from gutters or leaning and catching extra water. Since… Read more »

Doug
Guest
Doug

I live in this area as well and I have had 8.1″ of rain since Friday and more has fallen since I left for work. Crazy!

Troy
Guest
Troy

wow

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Near I29 and 64th 7.5 total which includes a half inch Friday and 2.7 since midnight.

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good morning to you sir!! Hope you are having fun in Vegas!!!

We picked up 1.5 last night which brings my total from Saturday morning (did not rain Friday night) to 3.8 inches…it has been a wonderful beneficial much needed rain but not quite enough to get things running in my specific location. Not going to complain….we so needed this rain!!!

Have a great day everyone

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m up to 5.4″ just a few miles from you Bill (since Friday night/Saturday morning)

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Jason:

I know man…it is kind of crazy…I am kind of in a little area where the heavier cells just were short bursts. I am pretty confident in the location of my gauge etc so I really think this is just one of those situations where 10-15 miles can indeed make a difference. Of course, I am kind of splitting hairs…3.8 inches is still a fantastic rain…it just has not been enough to really run much. Washington Creek by my house was still just a trickle as of this morning…

Jason
Guest
Jason

I have 2 gauges about 200 feet apart and they were within .10″ of each other.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Jason:

I have no doubt you received 5.4 inches….I really think this is a case where one cell maximized one area and not another…..none of the smaller creeks nor Washington Creek are running at the moment in my area…same thing happened in August of 2017 bu tin reverse….I received close to 9 inches but in town was only around 3-4 inches…..Kansas weather for ya…..

Jason
Guest
Jason

I should have elaborated morning. I knew you weren’t questioning my amounts. Was just adding that I have 2 rain gauges of different types to verify results. Definitely one cell maximizing an area. Will be interesting to see how this pans out during the winter months.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Jason:

It will be interesting for sure in the winter….I think this set up in winter and early spring is going to be a tough one to track for our area…..serious warm air issues etc….models will have a tough time getting a handle on it all….

So great to finally have rain in Douglas County…been a rough summer moisture wise!!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

4.5 inches here near St Joseph, hoping this isn’t the only signature storm in this lrc. It’s s good start to getting out of our defucit. Hoping for more in the coming weeks after harvest is done. Thought we’d get much more but have been on the edge of heavier rains most of the weekend

Jim
Guest
Jim

Since this is a part of the “new LRC cycle”, I can’t wait for Gary’s 100″ of snow prediction.

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

In Eastern Shawnee, we have received 7.5″ of rain since Friday. Most of that fell yesterday and overnight.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Water in my MANCAVE!
OH NOOOOOOOOOOO

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I got very little sleep last night, kept getting awaken by thunder. Also had water in my garage this morning.