Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

/Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

Kansas City Is Up To 3″ of Rain Already & Tropical Storm Michael Is Forming

Good morning bloggers,

The fourth band of rain and thunderstorms from this current set up and storm moved through overnight into early this morning.  The rainfall total at KCI Airport is now up to close to 3″ of rain already and there there are three more days left for the main storm system to produce more bands of rain.

Screen Shot 2018-10-07 at 5.05.35 AM

As you can see, as I was preparing to head to the airport, there was a well defined break in the rain. Now, this is a moving target, so let’s see how the morning goes. There will likely be a break by around peak tailgating time.  New bands of rain are to the south, however. And, how many times did we say that in the past year. NONE!  Welcome to the new LRC.

The main storm comes out Tuesday, and this is when there is a severe weather risk in our area:

day3otlk_0730

1Tropical Storm Michael is forming in the northern Caribbean Sea this morning. Michael is now caught in the new LRC, as it began organizing in the past few days in the old LRC.  This system will be fascinating to watch as it tracks into the hot spot predicted by Weather2020 for this hurricane season.  Weather2020 put a press release out in May with the main point being that Florida has a 90% chance of a land falling hurricane this season.  It came close to verifying when Gordon formed, as predicted 8 months in advance, and fell just 4 miles per hour short of being a hurricane tracking just west of the Florida Panhandle. The Florida Panhandle still had the largest impacts from that system. Fort Walton Beach was our target city for a land falling hurricane, based on our proprietary weather prediction system, and it will be interesting to see how close this system comes to our target specific location.  Michael likely will become a strengthening hurricane and it is targeting Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast.

3

The above map shows the latest GFS model showing the Florida Panhandle landfall.  While this is going on, take a look at the bigger picture:

4

This map above shows Michael, now inland by Thursday morning, and Sergio approaching Baja.  Sergio needs to be monitored closely as well, as it may interact with a storm moving across the western United States and have impacts on the southern and central plains.  It now appears that the two systems will not join forces, and we just need to keep monitoring closely.  Here is the latest:

GFS Model Valid Friday Morning:

5

In the past two years, the LLTI (Lezak’s Leaving Town Index) has not been a factor, since storm systems have not targeted KC for a very long time.  Well, I am leaving this morning for Vegas, arriving in time for the Chiefs game.  I come back later in the week, and it does look like I will miss three days of thunderstorms.  Of course, you know I will be monitoring closely.  Have a great Sunday. Go Chiefs. And, thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-10-08T20:30:39+00:00October 7th, 2018|General|74 Comments

74 Comments

  1. Mike Holm October 7, 2018 at 6:50 am - Reply

    Good time to watch Manifest on your way to Vegas. Have a safe flight.

    • Gary October 7, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

      Except that they just announced No WiFi on this flight. Nap time! 2.99” at KCI already.

  2. f00dl3 October 7, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    3.5″ in Lenexa near Old Town / Santa Fe Trail Dr & 95th

  3. Lrcfan1 October 7, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    Bye bye drought!!

  4. Jason October 7, 2018 at 8:39 am - Reply

    3.5” total so far south of Lawrence

    • Bill in Lawrence October 7, 2018 at 10:41 am - Reply

      Jason…

      That is so interesting….. I’m just west of you by 10 miles ( 2 miles down the creek from Lone Star Lake) and am sitting at 2.1 inches…. Washington Creek is just barely at a trickle ( which eventhough a trickle is the first movement since May) and no water in the lakes or ponds here…..not complaining as we needed this so badly but am just a tad frustrated we haven’t been able to get a run here….oh well…. such is the way things line up….. love the set up we are seeing. Appears to be a set up to watch for in later cycles…

      Have a great day!!!

      Bill in Wasinginton Creek Valley in Lawrence

      • Three7s October 7, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

        Yeah, I was thinking about this too. With all of the moisture streaming up from the southwest with cold air in place, I wonder if this could have ice storm potential in the winter cycles. It’s hard for me to see snow with this due to all of that moisture from the southwest overriding the cold. Something to watch for.

      • Jason October 7, 2018 at 1:26 pm - Reply

        Very interesting. I am basically at Worden. Had 1.3” Friday night into Saturday and then another 2.2” overnight last night

  5. Three7s October 7, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    And we’ll be getting another 2 days of this? Wow!

  6. Mr. Pete October 7, 2018 at 8:47 am - Reply

    EOI is a strong 0.

  7. Adam October 7, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    I’m loving this weather. This is my favorite version of fall. Time for a big hot cup of coffee and a big bowel of chili later.

    • Funny One October 7, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

      Bowl or bowel, you are correct 🙂

  8. MMike October 7, 2018 at 9:16 am - Reply

    “The models suck and you all know it. Why does everyone wishcast based on them?

    It’s not going to rain 3-6 inches between now and Tuesday in the metro. You’re all just dreaming.”

    “MT on the other channel cut the rainfall totals in half for the weekend , sounds like the same ole same ole for KC”

    These posts were made a few days ago right here on this very blog.

    Gary, since Wednesday, went with 3-5 inches of rain in his forecast…100 percent right on his forecast. Fantastic job!!

    Heading towards 4 inches of rain currently west of Liberty with more rain in the forecast.

    GO CHIEFS!!!

  9. JoeK October 7, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Turd Ferguson,

    How’s that MT forecast working out for you?

  10. Frankie October 7, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Looking likely that more than a few locations locally will dip into the 30s this week. Bring it on.

  11. MMike October 7, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    JoeK,

    Lol

    • Joek October 7, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

      MMike

      :D……At times, I simply have to take a deep breath and remind myself, it is just a blog

  12. Hockeynut69 October 7, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    Adam- I am doing the same. I had my coffee and chili will be in the crockpot later. The ponds are filling up. Interested to see what the drought monitor shows on Thursday. Sad part is this was too late for growing season but great for fall lawn and landscaping that has been planted.

    • MMike October 7, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

      All major reporting sites are well over 3 inches of rain per the NWS, except Downtown KC’s rain gauge. I have mentioned this several times and emailed the NWS, it’s always the lowest and in some cases way low. Other sites that have rain gauges show over three inches right in that area.

      #bad rain gauge for years now

    • Adam October 7, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

      There’s next year. Just think of it as over with now. 🙂

  13. blue flash October 7, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    Storm total so far 3.45″ here in Independence.

  14. Heat Miser October 7, 2018 at 10:06 am - Reply

    2.38 inches in Lawrence so far

    • Heat Miser October 7, 2018 at 10:07 am - Reply

      Lawrence Airport

  15. Frankie October 7, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

    Wow I have not seen a radar that looked like this in a while. This is a true widespread rain event on LRC day 2. Sign of things to come.

  16. Mr. Pete October 7, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

    Approaching 4 inches in my gauge here in Prairie Village since this all started Friday morning.

  17. Tim in Lone Jack October 7, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    It’s been awhile since a home chiefs game was pouring like this lol!!

  18. Nick October 7, 2018 at 12:26 pm - Reply

    Its been so long since we have had a “forever storm” like this with multiple waves before the main storm, feels good, the cool air with the rain is awesome as well, my window is full open in the bedroom, and my room is nice and cool for sleeping 🙂 🙂 🙂 :).

  19. Nick October 7, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    Oh, and good luck on the trip to Vegas, Gary, stay away from the “dry slots”. 😉

  20. Richard October 7, 2018 at 12:43 pm - Reply

    Gary said don’t jump to conclusions yet.
    I’m not.

    But just saw a friend on facebook shared one of their posts from 2 yrs ago today.

    From Oct 7 2016
    “49 degrees here this morning. Strong storms blew through last night along with a cold front. And last night it was snowing in Nebraska”

    So, strong cold front, storms 2 yrs ago today, hich wouod have been the beginning of that LRC. We all know how much snow we got winter of 2016-17. And wet last year in October with same result of below norm snowfall. Gary said “we got fooled by that”

    Just sayin don’t get too excited for the possibility of a snowy winter this time either. Yet.

    • heat miser October 7, 2018 at 1:48 pm - Reply

      nobody really knows, we can’t forecast snowfall for the winter with any accuracy. But its looking very promising.

      • Richard October 7, 2018 at 1:58 pm - Reply

        Lol
        Exactly ! That’s why I said what I did. Nobody really knows.
        So how can YOU say, at this EARLY stage of the new LRC, that it’s looking VERY promising !
        You take the cake with that head spinning comment

        • Joek October 7, 2018 at 3:04 pm - Reply

          it is in fact, looking promising. I too, believe the LRC is releasing some subtle signs. Understanding what occurred last year and applying it to this years LRC, gives one hope due to the different dynamics at play. I think we learned from what happened last year

        • Adam October 7, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

          First of all the rains last fall came in a couple of torrential one day passes. This is a multi day event. Second, storms blowing through and snow in Nebraska sounds like a Northwest flow.

        • Heat Miser October 7, 2018 at 4:06 pm - Reply

          lol..Richard, you are such a drama queen. It’s promising in that we haven’t see a weather pattern like this in four years…multiple days of widespread rain, lows forming or sinking into the SW part of the country before coming out in the plains (great set up for snow in the winter). Nothing is guaranteed, but it’s great to see finally. Mabye you might try paying attention a little more than trying to a cynic…that’s just lazy. Very exciting for us weather freaks.

  21. Patti October 7, 2018 at 1:30 pm - Reply

    I just emptied my rain gauge for the second time this weekend. I’m at 4.2 inches in NE Lee’s Summit. Wow.

  22. JohnS October 7, 2018 at 1:34 pm - Reply

    Just emptied my rain gauge in Greenwood and we are over 5.5″ so far since Friday. Standing water all over the yard.

  23. Rod October 7, 2018 at 1:52 pm - Reply

    Getting pounded right now with very heavy rain with strong storms in Ashland, MO. Loving this new weather pattern, off to a great start. Fingers crossed October & November continue to be active and we have an exciting winter.

    Rod (Ashland, MO)

  24. Nick October 7, 2018 at 2:49 pm - Reply

    It is really early to jump to conclusions, BUT this is a whole different animal that what happened last October, last October it was a front that fired up as it was moving in with storms and then became a much bigger rain event to the east of the region, without a major storm in the jet stream digging to our west and hanging out for awhile spitting out disturbances riding over a front giving “waves of rain”, the strong cold front last year was actually a good indicator imo of what was to come as we had VERY strong cold fronts last winter and a winter that lasted 5 months even though it was hyper dry, it did snow three times last April( along with the latest day in recorded history of having a temp that failed to get above 32F in mid april, actually if you look at the whole of what happened last October in St. Joe( just on the right side of getting a line of storms), but no major upper level storm systems, and a cold blast at the end of the month with flurries on Halloween, it actually again (imo) wasn’t a bad overall indicator of the LRC year that followed.

    • Anonymous October 7, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

      Nick-
      Love the post. That was one sentence.

  25. Mr. Pete October 7, 2018 at 3:10 pm - Reply

    Flash Flood Watch issued

  26. HEAT MISER October 7, 2018 at 5:24 pm - Reply

    That radar looks awesome…so much rain headed our way.

  27. disbelief October 7, 2018 at 5:26 pm - Reply

    Richard = BOORISH . I would almost bet he is a useless brit

    • Johnny October 7, 2018 at 6:03 pm - Reply

      He’s awful. Worst person on the board and it’s not close

  28. Mr. Pete October 7, 2018 at 5:27 pm - Reply

    Chiefs!!!!

    • Heat Miser October 7, 2018 at 9:57 pm - Reply

      Trump!!!!

      • Mr. Pete October 7, 2018 at 11:28 pm - Reply

        Kobach!

  29. Jordan October 7, 2018 at 5:40 pm - Reply

    I see it, I believe it. We’re up to 3″, and it looks like more rounds this evening/overnight. FINALLY putting a dent in the D4 area of the drought.

  30. f00dl3 October 7, 2018 at 8:09 pm - Reply

    I have not seen a long duration rain event like this in quite some time. 10 years at least for KC metro? I know we had some days where most of the day was rainy, but 3-4 day on/off rainfall event at this magnitude… very rare. This storm alone is a drought buster for many.

  31. Bill in Lawrence October 7, 2018 at 8:39 pm - Reply

    Gary and the wonderful 20/20 Blog:
    Happy Sunday to you sir!! Hope your flight to Vegas was good!!

    We have picked up 2.1 inches since Friday….have had 2-3 showers this afternoon but nothing big enough to add to the rain gauge. This rain was so needed and so wonderful; until this weekend we have only had .20 since September 5th. Will be interesting to see what that wall of water to the SW actually does. It is noteworthy that Douglas County is in the small sliver not in the flash flood watch.

    Just a few random thoughts this evening that hopefully will make sense!!

    I agree with many of the posts above that what we are seeing this weekend is much different than any of the previous 2 LRC beginnings. Last year for example the troughs in October only dug to northern Colorado or even southern Wyoming. This year, this trough is digging almost to the 4 corners if not further south…a much different animal indeed. This will for sure be an interesting set up for cycles 2, 3 and 4. One thing I think to watch for in the winter months is that f this comes out in pieces like we are seeing now it could bring in warm air and we could end up with quite the mix bag. Look at tonight…we were cool all day yesterday and even this morning but this 3rd wave has pumped some warmer air. There is for sure cold sir with this set up but how strong will it be in the later cycles. Cycle 4 in early spring could really be interesting!! One thing for sure, the models are going to have a terrible time with this set up especially the early spring/late winter version of it. Every run will have a different solution with the cold air and how it ejects out….Oh what fun that will be!!!! The wave coming out Thursday and Friday morning looks more interesting for winter….maybe???

    At the end of the day though, this is just 5 days in what could be a 50-70 day cycle….just one set up; this will not make or break this LRC. We have had LRC’s where there was just one signature storm/set up (2006-2007 if memory serves) and the remaining times were pretty benign. However, we have for sure have one in the boat and on the stringer and it is a darn nice one….but we do have many hours left of fishing….fun times ahead!!!!

    Have a great evening everyone

    Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

  32. Brandon Aubrey October 7, 2018 at 9:45 pm - Reply

    Wasn’t so fruitful for everyone. In Sedalia we have been largely missed by the heavier bands of rain. Maybe we will be lucky Tuesday!

  33. Supercell October 7, 2018 at 9:56 pm - Reply

    Rain gauge from midnight to 9:50 measured 2.65 for today at 165th & Quivira south OP. Friday, Saturday Sunday rain total now just shy of 5”. Good soaking rain but yard is now like walking on a sponge. We are at total saturation. Tstorms tomorrow and Tuesday could spell flooding trouble. But hey, after the summer we just had I have zero complaints.

  34. Heat Miser October 7, 2018 at 9:59 pm - Reply

    Wall of water has hit Lawrence..Thunderdstorm currently

  35. Mr. Pete October 8, 2018 at 12:09 am - Reply

    Heavy rains now. Most I’ve seen all year.

  36. Mr. Pete October 8, 2018 at 1:04 am - Reply

    Flash Flood WARNING issued. My cell phone just went off and woke me up.

    • Anonymous October 8, 2018 at 1:11 am - Reply

      Mine as well

  37. Hockeynut69 October 8, 2018 at 3:31 am - Reply

    Since Wednesday we are now at 6.50” just north of Liberty. Incredible! Could use some sunshine and drying now.

  38. f00dl3 October 8, 2018 at 4:22 am - Reply

    7.5″ since FRI AM near Old Town Lenexa/95th & Santa Fe Trail Dr. 0.3″ FRI, 3.5″ SAT, 0.9″ SUN to 4PM, 2.8″ overnight.

  39. My Keystone October 8, 2018 at 6:01 am - Reply

    Congrats to the Chief’s fans. My Jags didn’t bring the A game on offense but you surely did. KC has a very talented team with a great coach. Hope to see you again in the AFC Championship game

  40. f00dl3 October 8, 2018 at 6:02 am - Reply

    It’s amazing how the models are not handling this morning’s rain at all. The latest 10z HRRR model shows this rain over us right now lifting up in 1 hour. I do not see how that is even remotely possible when it extends all the way to the KS/OK border.

    • Snow Miser October 8, 2018 at 6:37 am - Reply

      It seems to be heading mostly north and we’re close to the southern edge, so I think maybe those models should be OK.

  41. RossBo October 8, 2018 at 7:23 am - Reply

    Snow on the NW side of this storm.

  42. Hockeynut69 October 8, 2018 at 7:26 am - Reply

    Found out my wife dumped the rain gauge once and didn’t tell me. According to the rainfall reporting from another station, we are approaching 12″ since last week. I believe we are now ahead for the year. Simply amazing and some hints of a possible frost or freeze next week. What a stretch of weather. In the long range models, it looks like a possible tropical storm headed toward East Coast around October 25th. If this is a repeat of Florence, that could put the cycle around 40-41 days. I know Florence was in the “old LRC”, but as someone else mentioned, if the cycle is near that range (40 days), that could have an impact of a wet Christmas. Question is will it be white or will it be wet?

  43. 2Doghouse October 8, 2018 at 7:27 am - Reply

    From Friday morning til now my gauge has shown just short of 13”. It’s not tilting, leaning or skewed in anyway. I have dumped it every day so I know that’s accurate. We’re out in west olathe

    • ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

      I believe you. I’m at 143rd and Switzer. I went to Chiefs game yesterday morning around 6:15. I had right at 6.5 inches in my gauge. That included over an inch from Friday morning when a small storm went through parts of JoCo and downtown. I dumped the gauge before going to game. This morning, Monday, I’m about to go dump my 8 inch rain gauge. It’s is almost to the top. I haven’t read yet to see if it’s at 8, but that would put me at slightly over 14 inches since Friday morning. I’m glad you reported yours. I was beginning to think something was wrong with mine. Gary, can you check estimated radar returns and make sure we aren’t crazy?

      • ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 7:48 am - Reply

        Apologies. I have a 7 inch rain gauge not 8. Just dumped it. It has some room at top so I estimate it had 7.5 in it. That would put me right at 14 since Friday morning, not over 14.

        • 2doghouse October 8, 2018 at 7:58 am - Reply

          Whew! That makes me feel better. I even showed my husband and took pics. I was feeling a little crazy. But it has legit poured here!

          • ClassyCat October 8, 2018 at 8:02 am - Reply

            My back yard is a swamp, literally.

  44. blue flash October 8, 2018 at 7:49 am - Reply

    Overnight rain of 3.85″ in Independence, so we are now up to storm total of 7.65″.

  45. Stl78(winon,mn) October 8, 2018 at 7:57 am - Reply

    Glad u guys are getting the moisture. Up here we need it to stop. I’m up to 44 in on the yr already and rain expected through wed….sigh.

    • Snow Miser October 8, 2018 at 8:06 am - Reply

      Actually, at this point I want it to stop here, too. Had some water in my garage when I left for work. Hope it doesn’t get much worse.

  46. Heat Miser October 8, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    Storm total at Lawrence Airport is right about at 4 inches, with another 2-4 inches expected by Wednesday morning. Crazy!

  47. JohnS October 8, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

    Just dumped it again since yesterday and here in Greenwood I’m at 4.2” plus the 5.7” that I dumped yesterday. Almost 10” of rain and we aren’t done yet.

  48. JohnS October 8, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    I am wondering how accurate my gauge is though. Springfield Instruments gauge, nothing fancy.

  49. Ed October 9, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

    Why do these weather people repeat over and over.I’m missing jeopardy while these two yak and yak

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