Welcome To Day 1 Of The 2018-2019 LRC

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Good morning bloggers,

LRC Day 1 October 6 2018

Welcome to the 2018-2019 LRC day 1.  We are sharing something very special with you this morning while thunder, lightning, and heavy rain track across Kansas City early on this Saturday morning. We have identified that that old LRC has finally been wiped out and we are into the new pattern, day 1.  While we experience thunderstorms this morning, the tropics are also quite active.  Major Hurricane Sergio may actually impact Kansas City significantly next week, around Friday or Saturday, a week from now.  Tropical Storm Leslie has been swirling for over two weeks now, and there is a developing tropical storm in the northern Caribbean Sea.  These tropical systems are all caught in the new LRC, and something to pay close attention to.

Lightning

Thunderstorms were moving across the area this morning, and a second wave need to be watched for later in the day.

Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 7.04.54 AM

The weather pattern has massively changed, and very different things are happening. This radar map alone is exhibit A to show a storm system that is producing wide spread rained thunderstorms over our area.  The rainfall rates were 1 to 2 inches per hour in these morning thunderstorms. Each thunderstorm has been only lasting a few minutes at each location, and they are lined up over the KC metro area with a large area of rain north and west of the heavier thunderstorms. This is just the first wave of rain from this storm system. Many more waves of energy will be tracking across the area through Tuesday, and then we get to monitor that late week system. Suddenly, it is different, in a great way for us weather enthusiasts in this part of the nation.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times this morning.  The rain may stop for a while, or reduce to drizzle.  There will be some lightning and thunder this morning. Temperatures dropping into the 50s
  • Tonight: Another round of rain arrives. Lows in the 50s.
  • Sunday:  Cool and wet with periods of rain and thunderstorms. There will likely be some breaks in the rain and one of those breaks is possible during the Chiefs game. Temperature warming into the 60s.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your Saturday morning reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Gary

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RickMcKC
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RickMcKC

Here at my house near I-29 & 64th I recorded 1.52 today plus .51 yesterday afternoon for 2.03 total. Still raining with more on the way.

Long live the new LRC!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

NWS Weather Prediction Center Valid 00Z Sun Oct 07 2018 – 00Z Tue Oct 09 2018 The multi day Heavy rain/Flash Flooding event will continue across the Southern to central Plains into the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region…Early Season Heavy snow possible across the Wasatch into the Central to Northern Rockies and portions of the Northern High Plains. This frontal boundary will be the dividing line between much below average temperatures that will persist Saturday-Sunday and Monday over the Central to Northern Plains and Central to Northern Rockies region…and much above average temperatures from the Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio… Read more »

blue flash
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blue flash

Looks like another batch of rain coming in from the southwest for late evening. 1.35″ overnight and this morning in Independence.

Richard
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Richard

Looked at radar accuweather. Says rain starting in 33 min for Olathe.

Richard
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Richard

The off and on rain has been mostly off today. Is it done for the day ?

Southwest Blvd had flooding issues this morning….again. There were water rescues. Several cars submerged.
I thought they fixed that problem area

Dobber
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Dobber

They’ve spent tens of millions trying to fix it Richard.

Nate
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Nate

Nearly every event in the area was cancelled, I couldn’t even drop off my old paint cans to the haz mat facility. I didn’t know cloud and colder temps was so alarming.

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

What are the chances they expand the flash flood watch up this way to include KC?

John R. Hill
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John R. Hill

Nearly 2 1/2 inches near Powell Gardens – Oakshire subdivision

Brittany
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Brittany

The stupid rain completely canceled the Missouri Town Fall Festival this year!! Ugh! Of course it just had to pick this weekend to dump 5 inches of rain on us.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

2.13” since Wednesday just north of Liberty . Nice soaking rains.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

I wonder if the Louisburg Cider Mill planner is wondering where the all day rain is. Hardly enough fallen rain has occured to cancel the event.

I turned the horses back out, so now it will pour. 🙂

Roger
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Roger

Yesterday, The Weather Channel ran a segment about Kansas City. They showed a graphic that the downtown airport is over 18 inches below normal for the calendar year! Bring on the rain!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Ok so Sunday now looks like a all day rain event?

Heat MIser
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Heat MIser

1.4 inches at Lawrence Airport in first wave of rain…thumbs up!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The first wave that began here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) at 10:10 PM lasted 7.5 hours and dumped 2.7″ of rain, which brought us to just 0.92″ below our total yearly average. Currently, it is 45° with light rain. The forecast shows we could pick up an additional 3.36″ from now until Wednesday morning and another 0.74″ from Friday (10/12) through Sunday (10/14).

Nick
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Nick

At 12:00 am CDT, Oct. 6th 2018, LRC 2017-18’s Rossby waves officially flatlined, and was pronounced OUTTA here 😉 last night/this morning has been a good rainy morning, and, not only that but it looks like it is part of a “forever storm” ( where you have a storm in the west that gives us multiple days of wet shortwaves/ set ups, before the main storm kicks out, been such a long time. 😀

Frankie
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Frankie

This is the best blog title to read. I’m so ready for a new pattern. We have had very few widespread rain events in the old LRC, and this new one starts with a bang… widespread rain event on Day 1. With the AO and maybe the NAO *possibly* dipping negative in 10 days according to the CPC, there is some optimism in the air.

Mary
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Mary

2.3” so for here in Shawnee near 435

Melanie
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Melanie

In Eastern Shawnee we receive .25″ yesterday and .75″ so far for today.

Farmgirl
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Farmgirl

Same old, same old in La Cygne. Rain goes north or south. Got about 20 minutes of rain and now just spits.

Matt Maisch
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Matt Maisch

Hi Gary,

Not enjoying the same benefits as many others out toward Odessa. Just .60″ total for the last few days. That includes everything that has fallen up to the moment. We are at exactly .75″ for the last month. Hope all is well.

Matt

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

Here is the link to Day 1 hemisphere 5-day loop. Pretty cool
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Interested to see how all these tropical systems affect us in this new lrc!

Three7s
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Three7s

So, can we name this storm 1-A or something?

Adam
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Adam

Let’s name it 1-Z

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

Yes, lets call it exhibit 1-A

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I say we name it Patrick Mahomes. Or maybe Cuthbert Finkelheimer.

Three7s
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Three7s

I’m good with calling it Patrick Mahomes!

MikeL
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MikeL

Received 2.6 inches at my house in SW Topeka. The new LRC rocks! (For one day anyway…lol)

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

1.27 inches at Lawrence Airport so far

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

There are 80 days until Christmas, so I’m hoping this new LRC cycle is 40 days. That would put this wet pattern right on Christmas day! Then it would just have to be cold enough to snow, then we would get a white Christmas!

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Some people have apparently theorized based on hints of the cycle that showed up earlier that it may be 37 days, but it’s probably far too early to say anything that is any more than a tiny bit better than total guessing.

JoeK
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JoeK

My theory is that it will be a shorter cycle, between 38 and 44 days. Just my humble opinion as of this moment

Mike
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Mike

Well the AO is showing going negative around October 16th…..

Terry
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Terry

Mike how do you look at the AO ? I forgot

Mike
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Mike
Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Rain has been fairly light in Prairie Village. Hardly a gauge buster. All the heavy stuff went north.

Johnny
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Johnny

I’m guessing there’s a mini hole over wyandotte and jordan has not got anything

Jordan
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Jordan

Nope, they actually got one right today.

Look at the drought map. There’s been a mini “hole” over Wyandotte the whole year, so most of the time it did rain in the area, Wyandotte got nothing, which is why we’re the only county in the metro that’s still in D4 drought, which is why I’ve been pissed at the forecasting all summer.

Jordan
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Jordan

Actually up to 1.2″ combined with yesterday morning’s rain.

Terry
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Terry

Great job Gary and I’m excited to see how this Winter will be

2Doghouse
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2Doghouse

Gary
We were in the right spot yesterday morning as well. Got a few downpours. So between yesterday and this morning we’re at almost 4 inches. Out in west olathe near cedar creek

Three7s
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Three7s

Some areas got rain yesterday, but by no means was it wide-spread. It was just like the old LRC. You can count on one hand how many times the scenario that is happening right now happened in the last LRC, and it’s happening on day 1!

MMike
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MMike

Three7’s, “Some areas got rain yesterday, but by no means was it wide-spread. It was just like the old LRC” So if we give all the credit to the LRC for why KC missed all the rains(not true, we did have quite the wet period from late July through August, remember, fully dormant conditions to fully lush conditions) can we give the same credit to the LRC for the D4 drought that started last fall in Amarillo to Dodge City, to Salina and most of KS. Well, that same LRC that you speak of that caused our dry pattern for… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

MMike
Wow. I agree with every. thing. you said above !
Those have been my thoughts since May 1, but you expressed it more clearly than I could have. spot on.
It seems to be a complete reversal though, I thought you were full onboard with the LRC ?
The 2017-18 lrc was wacky ! Specially starting May 1 !! Complete opposite of what I thought would happen.

Three7s
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Three7s

Those would be questions to ask Gary, not me. All I know is that I don’t remember many of these types of rains over the past year. Maybe you do, but I sure don’t.

MMike
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MMike

Three7’s, I wasn’t tryng to say you were wrong or trying to be negative to you at all. I just have a problem when the cycling pattern doesn’t happen either here or somewhere else, there are just too many unknowns to claim “we know” I track weather every day as I love it! I still see so many troubles with predicting the future and strongly lean in the direction that weather will still do what weather wants to do. I’m certainly not denying that it was a frustrating and dry pattern, hoping for a better one, I think we all… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

MMike, Think “bigger picture”. I will e-mail you and explain what I am talking about. I think you present some good questions and observations and believe there are explanations. Keep in mind that this past winter, Gary did state he believed the LRC was showing an impending drought, but allowed himself to be talked out of it. Now, I think it ends up being a lesson learned. Agreed that there are still challenges and learning opportunities. Richard, now you should be able to deduce that Mike and I are not the same as I am ALL in on the LRC… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Interesting how you can email him
Is Gary in the business of providing emails to bloggers ?

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

I’m buying this
Nice write up and welcome new LRC

Thank You Gary!