Welcome To Day 1 Of The 2018-2019 LRC

/Welcome To Day 1 Of The 2018-2019 LRC

Welcome To Day 1 Of The 2018-2019 LRC

Good morning bloggers,

LRC Day 1 October 6 2018

Welcome to the 2018-2019 LRC day 1.  We are sharing something very special with you this morning while thunder, lightning, and heavy rain track across Kansas City early on this Saturday morning. We have identified that that old LRC has finally been wiped out and we are into the new pattern, day 1.  While we experience thunderstorms this morning, the tropics are also quite active.  Major Hurricane Sergio may actually impact Kansas City significantly next week, around Friday or Saturday, a week from now.  Tropical Storm Leslie has been swirling for over two weeks now, and there is a developing tropical storm in the northern Caribbean Sea.  These tropical systems are all caught in the new LRC, and something to pay close attention to.

Lightning

Thunderstorms were moving across the area this morning, and a second wave need to be watched for later in the day.

Screen Shot 2018-10-06 at 7.04.54 AM

The weather pattern has massively changed, and very different things are happening. This radar map alone is exhibit A to show a storm system that is producing wide spread rained thunderstorms over our area.  The rainfall rates were 1 to 2 inches per hour in these morning thunderstorms. Each thunderstorm has been only lasting a few minutes at each location, and they are lined up over the KC metro area with a large area of rain north and west of the heavier thunderstorms. This is just the first wave of rain from this storm system. Many more waves of energy will be tracking across the area through Tuesday, and then we get to monitor that late week system. Suddenly, it is different, in a great way for us weather enthusiasts in this part of the nation.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times this morning.  The rain may stop for a while, or reduce to drizzle.  There will be some lightning and thunder this morning. Temperatures dropping into the 50s
  • Tonight: Another round of rain arrives. Lows in the 50s.
  • Sunday:  Cool and wet with periods of rain and thunderstorms. There will likely be some breaks in the rain and one of those breaks is possible during the Chiefs game. Temperature warming into the 60s.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your Saturday morning reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Gary

2018-10-07T05:54:51+00:00October 6th, 2018|General|57 Comments

57 Comments

  1. NoBeachHere October 6, 2018 at 7:52 am - Reply

    I’m buying this
    Nice write up and welcome new LRC

    Thank You Gary!

  2. 2Doghouse October 6, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    Gary
    We were in the right spot yesterday morning as well. Got a few downpours. So between yesterday and this morning we’re at almost 4 inches. Out in west olathe near cedar creek

    • Gary October 6, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

      Nice! And, yesterday was the end of the old LRC and the beginning of the new. Today is the first full day of LRC 2018-2019. There is a lot more rain to come between now and Tuesday night.

    • Three7s October 6, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

      Some areas got rain yesterday, but by no means was it wide-spread. It was just like the old LRC. You can count on one hand how many times the scenario that is happening right now happened in the last LRC, and it’s happening on day 1!

      • MMike October 6, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

        Three7’s,

        “Some areas got rain yesterday, but by no means was it wide-spread. It was just like the old LRC” So if we give all the credit to the LRC for why KC missed all the rains(not true, we did have quite the wet period from late July through August, remember, fully dormant conditions to fully lush conditions) can we give the same credit to the LRC for the D4 drought that started last fall in Amarillo to Dodge City, to Salina and most of KS. Well, that same LRC that you speak of that caused our dry pattern for the most part here in KC turned wet and totally wiped out their drought over the summer. If the reason for our dry pattern was because of the LRC, what was the reason for their drought pattern to suddenly become a wet pattern or a pattern wet enough to erase the drought.

        If it was the LRC pattern like you say it is, how did we go from 4 months below average temps, record cold in April, to every month following April above average and way above average in some cases. If the pattern was cycling at 47 days, how could we have record cold April 1st and then record warmth 47 days later…or a much warmer pattern. The thought was based off the first 4 months this year that it would not be a hot spring and summer, well, we know how that went. We didn’t have a spring. Where were the cycling cool downs based of the first 4 months of below average.

        Another thing, the LRC did indeed have these wide spread rains to open up October 2017, so, is this for sure a totally different LRC or just a wet period like last October?

        There are too many things that don’t match up to give your above statement any backing. I believe in the cycling pattern to some degree, however, I still believe that it cant be predicted accurately consistently and there are many forecasts to back that up. If we know the LRC so well, how came we didn’t get a forecast for a hot and dry spring, a hot and dry summer??? Well, the reason is that the first 4 months of very cold weather to start this year told us that cold fronts would be normal throughout the spring…per the LRC and the LRC forecast went with that with a prediction of average moisture and below average temps. No where was there a prediction of drought in KC, might have been discussed on here, but was never a strongly worded forecast. There was never a strongly worded forecast that the drought in northern Texas, Oklahoma, and most of KS would go from extreme drought to no drought, why, because it’s just really hard to predict future patterns. How did our dry, very warm winter of 2016-17 turn into a stormy, cooler spring and summer overall in 2017 if we knew the LRC so well??

        I still stand by that predicting long range weather is still less then 50 percent accurate and there are many forecasts to prove that. I think our pattern was full of bad timing and bad luck. With that being said, I hope we have more hits then misses moving forward as I love winter storms and changes in the weather.

        With yesterday’s thunderstorm and the heavy rain this morning, I have a total of 2.21 inches of rain so far west of Liberty. Much needed following the drier Sept.

        Go Chiefs!!!!

        • Richard October 6, 2018 at 3:31 pm - Reply

          MMike
          Wow. I agree with every. thing. you said above !
          Those have been my thoughts since May 1, but you expressed it more clearly than I could have. spot on.
          It seems to be a complete reversal though, I thought you were full onboard with the LRC ?
          The 2017-18 lrc was wacky ! Specially starting May 1 !! Complete opposite of what I thought would happen.

        • Three7s October 6, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

          Those would be questions to ask Gary, not me. All I know is that I don’t remember many of these types of rains over the past year. Maybe you do, but I sure don’t.

          • MMike October 6, 2018 at 5:36 pm - Reply

            Three7’s,

            I wasn’t tryng to say you were wrong or trying to be negative to you at all. I just have a problem when the cycling pattern doesn’t happen either here or somewhere else, there are just too many unknowns to claim “we know” I track weather every day as I love it! I still see so many troubles with predicting the future and strongly lean in the direction that weather will still do what weather wants to do. I’m certainly not denying that it was a frustrating and dry pattern, hoping for a better one, I think we all are.

            Anyhow, looking forward to the top offense against the top defense tomorrow, should be fun. Our defense made some stops last week when needed, lets hope they can make some tomorrow against an average offense.

            Richard,

            I am 100 percent on board with what Gary and team are doing,He’s a great forecaster!! The best that I know. However, there is just too much evidence that I have mentioned that show we still have a limited advantage on what the weather is going to do tomorrow, next week, and next month. I know the LRC team is getting better and better, there’s plenty of evidence on that. I’m just not the person that when something happens I say, well, the LRC knew this.

            • JoeK October 6, 2018 at 11:04 pm - Reply

              MMike,

              Think “bigger picture”. I will e-mail you and explain what I am talking about. I think you present some good questions and observations and believe there are explanations. Keep in mind that this past winter, Gary did state he believed the LRC was showing an impending drought, but allowed himself to be talked out of it. Now, I think it ends up being a lesson learned. Agreed that there are still challenges and learning opportunities.

              Richard, now you should be able to deduce that Mike and I are not the same as I am ALL in on the LRC as most on here know. After years of following and being a skeptic, I was able to finally see the LRC and once I did, it made it easier to understand some of the challenges

              • Richard October 7, 2018 at 12:21 pm

                Interesting how you can email him
                Is Gary in the business of providing emails to bloggers ?

          • Gary October 6, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

            There weren’t any. This is completely different and on day 1 of this years cycling pattern.

            Gary

        • Gary October 6, 2018 at 7:04 pm - Reply

          Mike,

          Spend a bit more time, and you will see that last October did not have these wide spread rains. Oh, they hit your garden, but ask Manhattan, KS where the rain was. Ask Salina, KS where the rain was. Ask Wichita? We did not have the wide spread rain. And, we got fooled. I won’t let this happen again.

          • MMike October 6, 2018 at 7:50 pm - Reply

            But, Salina and Manhatten went from extreme drought to no drought…

            I’m not denying this looks different, of course it does as it’s a new pattern. My argument is even know we think we know the pattern, it’s still extremely hard to predict..right? If it wasn’t, we would of had a forecast back in March that stated, “expect a record breaking cold April followed by a very hot mid to late spring, and a drought this summer. Expect the drought to ease up or totally go away from North Texas to most of Ks..etc) still hard to predict..no??

            Get packed, get on your flight in the morning and get to Vegas and have fun! I was there about a month ago, so, pick up the money they got from me. Lol

            • Gary October 6, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

              Exactly, as predicted! And, your assessment of less than 50% accurate is insane. We are over 50% on the 12-week forecasts you say are under 50%, and our bigger predictions of larger scale events are closer to 80% accurate, while the LRC itself is nearly 100%.

              Gary

              • Mike October 6, 2018 at 9:20 pm

                Gary. I think MMike mentioned some good points about the areas in drought at the beginning of the last year lrc but completely wiped out by this month. I wish you could address his several concerns of lrc instead of saying “as predicted”.

  3. Terry October 6, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    Great job Gary and I’m excited to see how this Winter will be

  4. Johnny October 6, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    I’m guessing there’s a mini hole over wyandotte and jordan has not got anything

    • Jordan October 6, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

      Nope, they actually got one right today.

      Look at the drought map. There’s been a mini “hole” over Wyandotte the whole year, so most of the time it did rain in the area, Wyandotte got nothing, which is why we’re the only county in the metro that’s still in D4 drought, which is why I’ve been pissed at the forecasting all summer.

    • Jordan October 6, 2018 at 12:14 pm - Reply

      Actually up to 1.2″ combined with yesterday morning’s rain.

  5. Mr. Pete October 6, 2018 at 8:21 am - Reply

    Rain has been fairly light in Prairie Village. Hardly a gauge buster. All the heavy stuff went north.

  6. Mike October 6, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Well the AO is showing going negative around October 16th…..

  7. Snow Miser October 6, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    There are 80 days until Christmas, so I’m hoping this new LRC cycle is 40 days. That would put this wet pattern right on Christmas day! Then it would just have to be cold enough to snow, then we would get a white Christmas!

    • snowflakeparkville October 6, 2018 at 5:04 pm - Reply

      Some people have apparently theorized based on hints of the cycle that showed up earlier that it may be 37 days, but it’s probably far too early to say anything that is any more than a tiny bit better than total guessing.

      • JoeK October 6, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

        My theory is that it will be a shorter cycle, between 38 and 44 days. Just my humble opinion as of this moment

  8. Heat Miser October 6, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply

    1.27 inches at Lawrence Airport so far

  9. MikeL October 6, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    Received 2.6 inches at my house in SW Topeka. The new LRC rocks! (For one day anyway…lol)

  10. Three7s October 6, 2018 at 8:47 am - Reply

    So, can we name this storm 1-A or something?

    • Adam October 6, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

      Let’s name it 1-Z

    • Mike Holm October 6, 2018 at 9:15 am - Reply

      Yes, lets call it exhibit 1-A

    • Snow Miser October 6, 2018 at 9:20 am - Reply

      I say we name it Patrick Mahomes. Or maybe Cuthbert Finkelheimer.

      • Three7s October 6, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

        I’m good with calling it Patrick Mahomes!

  11. Lrcfan1 October 6, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Interested to see how all these tropical systems affect us in this new lrc!

  12. Mike Holm October 6, 2018 at 9:21 am - Reply

    Here is the link to Day 1 hemisphere 5-day loop. Pretty cool
    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

  13. Matt Maisch October 6, 2018 at 9:22 am - Reply

    Hi Gary,

    Not enjoying the same benefits as many others out toward Odessa. Just .60″ total for the last few days. That includes everything that has fallen up to the moment. We are at exactly .75″ for the last month. Hope all is well.

    Matt

  14. Farmgirl October 6, 2018 at 9:23 am - Reply

    Same old, same old in La Cygne. Rain goes north or south. Got about 20 minutes of rain and now just spits.

  15. Melanie October 6, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

    In Eastern Shawnee we receive .25″ yesterday and .75″ so far for today.

  16. Mary October 6, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    2.3” so for here in Shawnee near 435

  17. Frankie October 6, 2018 at 9:48 am - Reply

    This is the best blog title to read. I’m so ready for a new pattern. We have had very few widespread rain events in the old LRC, and this new one starts with a bang… widespread rain event on Day 1. With the AO and maybe the NAO *possibly* dipping negative in 10 days according to the CPC, there is some optimism in the air.

  18. Nick October 6, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    At 12:00 am CDT, Oct. 6th 2018, LRC 2017-18’s Rossby waves officially flatlined, and was pronounced OUTTA here 😉 last night/this morning has been a good rainy morning, and, not only that but it looks like it is part of a “forever storm” ( where you have a storm in the west that gives us multiple days of wet shortwaves/ set ups, before the main storm kicks out, been such a long time. 😀

  19. KS Jones October 6, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    The first wave that began here (midway between Manhattan & Marysville) at 10:10 PM lasted 7.5 hours and dumped 2.7″ of rain, which brought us to just 0.92″ below our total yearly average. Currently, it is 45° with light rain. The forecast shows we could pick up an additional 3.36″ from now until Wednesday morning and another 0.74″ from Friday (10/12) through Sunday (10/14).

  20. Heat MIser October 6, 2018 at 10:54 am - Reply

    1.4 inches at Lawrence Airport in first wave of rain…thumbs up!

  21. Mr. Pete October 6, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Ok so Sunday now looks like a all day rain event?

  22. Roger October 6, 2018 at 11:11 am - Reply

    Yesterday, The Weather Channel ran a segment about Kansas City. They showed a graphic that the downtown airport is over 18 inches below normal for the calendar year! Bring on the rain!

  23. Farmgirl October 6, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

    I wonder if the Louisburg Cider Mill planner is wondering where the all day rain is. Hardly enough fallen rain has occured to cancel the event.

    I turned the horses back out, so now it will pour. 🙂

  24. Hockeynut69 October 6, 2018 at 1:06 pm - Reply

    2.13” since Wednesday just north of Liberty . Nice soaking rains.

  25. Brittany October 6, 2018 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    The stupid rain completely canceled the Missouri Town Fall Festival this year!! Ugh! Of course it just had to pick this weekend to dump 5 inches of rain on us.

  26. John R. Hill October 6, 2018 at 2:55 pm - Reply

    Nearly 2 1/2 inches near Powell Gardens – Oakshire subdivision

  27. Psychotic Aardvark October 6, 2018 at 3:31 pm - Reply

    What are the chances they expand the flash flood watch up this way to include KC?

  28. Nate October 6, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

    Nearly every event in the area was cancelled, I couldn’t even drop off my old paint cans to the haz mat facility. I didn’t know cloud and colder temps was so alarming.

  29. Richard October 6, 2018 at 3:38 pm - Reply

    The off and on rain has been mostly off today. Is it done for the day ?

    Southwest Blvd had flooding issues this morning….again. There were water rescues. Several cars submerged.
    I thought they fixed that problem area

    • Dobber October 6, 2018 at 8:44 pm - Reply

      They’ve spent tens of millions trying to fix it Richard.

  30. blue flash October 6, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    Looks like another batch of rain coming in from the southwest for late evening. 1.35″ overnight and this morning in Independence.

    • Richard October 6, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      Looked at radar accuweather. Says rain starting in 33 min for Olathe.

  31. KS Jones October 6, 2018 at 4:59 pm - Reply

    NWS Weather Prediction Center
    Valid 00Z Sun Oct 07 2018 – 00Z Tue Oct 09 2018
    The multi day Heavy rain/Flash Flooding event will continue across the Southern to central Plains into the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region…Early Season Heavy snow possible across the Wasatch into the Central to Northern Rockies and portions of the Northern High Plains. This frontal boundary will be the dividing line between much below average temperatures that will persist Saturday-Sunday and Monday over the Central to Northern Plains and Central to Northern Rockies region…and much above average temperatures from the Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and into portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The amplifying mid to upper level trof over the Great Basin and Southwest will support early season heavy snows from the Wasatch of Utah into the Central to Northern Rockies. Accumulating snows may push eastward into the Northern High Plains Sunday from northeast Wyoming into
    western South Dakota.
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/bndrys1.gif

  32. RickMcKC October 6, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

    Here at my house near I-29 & 64th I recorded 1.52 today plus .51 yesterday afternoon for 2.03 total. Still raining with more on the way.

    Long live the new LRC!

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