As The Pattern Changes

/As The Pattern Changes

As The Pattern Changes

Good morning bloggers,

Rain and a few thunderstorms area tracking across today.  Temperatures will be jumping into the 80s as a warm front moves through.  Today is likely the true finale to the old pattern, as the new LRC begins on Saturday morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and a few thunderstorms likely this morning. Some sun breaking out with a temperature surge to near or above 80 degrees. The chance of rain goes from 90% this morning to 10% this afternoon.
  • Tonight: Dry for Friday Night Lights. Temperatures dropping later tonight into the 50s
  • Saturday: A 100% chance of rain, possibly heavy at times during the morning. There may be a break in the rain by later in the day.  Temperatures falling  into the 50s and staying there.
  • Sunday:  Southeast winds return with a 100% chance of rain and a few thunderstorms. There may be a break in the rain for a few hours. High: 73°

Rainfall totals of 1″ to 5″ likely by Tuesday.

Have a great Friday. Go Chiefs! Go Patrick Mahomes! And, go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-10-06T07:39:55+00:00October 5th, 2018|General|70 Comments

70 Comments

  1. A1hoops October 5, 2018 at 8:28 am - Reply

    Gary since the new pattern is about to begin can we naming these systems so the bloggers can keep up when you say the storms match up? Maybe chiefs players names? Or storm A,B, etc

    • Frankie October 5, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

      I’m on board with this idea

    • Three7s October 5, 2018 at 8:38 am - Reply

      Yes please.

    • Snow Miser October 5, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

      What would be really neat would be to post the current 500mb height pattern map for every blog post, that way we can see the pattern for any day we want to going back through the whole pattern just by going back through the blog archives.

      • A1hoops October 5, 2018 at 8:53 am - Reply

        That would be too perfect lol

    • Clint October 5, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

      GREAT IDEA!

    • Numb3rsGuy October 5, 2018 at 1:42 pm - Reply

      I also like this idea! I think we need a way to keep track of the LRC# (like 2018/2019 LRC), the cycle number (1, 2, 3…), and the storm name (A, B, C…) or something like that. That way in March when we talk about “the Thanksgiving week storm” people actually know what we are talking about.

  2. Anonymous October 5, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    Jordan!

    • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 9:58 am - Reply

      Hey! We can start with today’s warm front that Gary says has a 90% chance of rain this morning, but hasn’t given me a single drop yet! He’s knocking these predictions out of the park!

      • Gary October 5, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

        Where do you live. It rained over most of KC. 0.70″ on the Plaza.

        Gary

        • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm - Reply

          Northern Wyandotte County, in the worst part of the drought.

          • Gary October 5, 2018 at 4:00 pm - Reply

            Maybe this is the stretch of days that will end the drought. It seems like it is!

        • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 2:43 pm - Reply

          Ended up with just over .25″, so still over 13″ below normal.

    • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 11:12 am - Reply

      Actually, don’t name it after me, because we actually got some rain out of a cell today.we’re inching that sub-50% accuracy up!

  3. BSMike October 5, 2018 at 8:43 am - Reply

    or use bloggers names

  4. Terry October 5, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

    Yes use bloggers names.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE October 5, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

      Been saying this for years! Each and every system needs a name to identify it, and Gary needs to develop a simple nomenclature system that ties the each storm to each cycle so it makes sense. A-1 in the first cycle, A-2 in the second cycle, A-3 in the third cycle and so on. It could be set up a number of ways, but the LRC needs an identification system without question.

  5. Mike October 5, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Use Presidents last names….

  6. Snow Miser October 5, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    It’s pouring out in downtown Independence.

  7. Three7s October 5, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    I don’t remember it raining this hard for this long. Sidewalks are starting to flood in downtown Independence.

  8. Mike Holm October 5, 2018 at 9:19 am - Reply

    Gary, I would like a summary of how you believe the switch between patterns happens. So a while back we started with 2% new/old pattern—tomorrow 100% new.
    Does the pattern change like a big bucket of water at a water park, where it gradually fills and then tips, or is it more like once it’s a little past halfway it tips? Is twilight at the North Pole the tipping point,, if so what percentage is the old/new cycle at this point?
    I’m curious as to how the cycling pattern morphs.

    OK second question. Last year you put out a blog that suggested cycles with in a cycle (mini cycles), or harmonics of the overall pattern. Does this part of the LRC verify?
    Thanks Gary

    • Richard October 5, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

      Yesterday I asked Gary if the autumnal equinox and the jet stream strengthening play a part in the new LRC forming.
      No answer.

    • JoeK October 5, 2018 at 11:00 am - Reply

      Mike,’

      Great observation with the North Pole. I believe that is what signals the change in the overall pattern

  9. Jordan October 5, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

    90% chance of rain before 10am, yet my rain gauge is still bone dry. This is really shaping up to be a wet pattern! Combined with all the rain I got Wednesday night, I’m going to need to build an ark!

    • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply

      Also, I thought we were 3.5″ on the low end with this storm. It’s down to 1″ now?

    • Three7s October 5, 2018 at 10:33 am - Reply

      There’s a storm approaching you just to your south.

      • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 10:47 am - Reply

        Wow, a rain prediction might actually pan out for northern Wyandotte? I’m… shocked, to say the least.

      • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

        I will firmly plant my foot in my mouth on this one, but we’re still well under 50% on precipitation predictions more than 24 hours out for the year.

  10. Richard October 5, 2018 at 10:22 am - Reply

    I think this rainy period is different, even though it rained last October too.
    I think we will have a snowy winter !!

    Good luck in Vegas on Sunday Gary.

    Sunny must be confused what with vacations and moving into an apartment,
    Big dogs need yards to run. How is she doing.

  11. Psychotic Aardvark October 5, 2018 at 10:51 am - Reply

    Any ideas on if they could issue a flash flood watch for the area?

  12. Terry October 5, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    Big thunder storm I. WYCO now

  13. NoBeachHere October 5, 2018 at 11:05 am - Reply

    Nice t storm in Gladstone

    I’m all for naming storms.

    Let’s come to a consensus and then we can all enjoy the evolution of this lrc together and on the same page.

  14. Anthony October 5, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

    Use the date of the system/storm as its name so that it is easy to reference and track

    • KS Jones October 5, 2018 at 11:20 pm - Reply

      Yes, dates would be better than random names.

  15. birdieman October 5, 2018 at 12:05 pm - Reply

    Please weather engineering black helicopter folks, set up a deluge over Jordan’s lawn/farm so he can peel himself off the ceiling…

    • Jordan October 5, 2018 at 12:58 pm - Reply

      Those black ops a-holes have something against Wyandotte County and precipitation prediction accuracy.

      • KS Jones October 5, 2018 at 1:23 pm - Reply

        “Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
        Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
        Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting,
        Lizard’s leg, and howlet’s wing,–
        For a charm of powerful trouble,
        Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.”

        https://newint.org/features/special/2008/08/01/technofixes
        2 August 2008
         Nowhere is that talisman more apparent than in the new strategies emerging from the US right wing. Newt Gingrich, a prominent Republican strategist and former climate sceptic, is now a ‘believer’ in climate change but is choosing an election year to fight against carbon dioxide emission reductions. He claims he has a better proposal: namely ‘geo-engineering’, the large-scale intentional manipulation of the atmosphere, oceans and soils to ‘fix’ climate change. Gingrich’s think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute, appears to favour a scheme of polluting the upper atmosphere with tiny sulphur particles in order to reflect heat, cooling the climate in the process.

        • Roger October 5, 2018 at 2:25 pm - Reply

          Unfortunately, that has been going on for a long time. Spraying nano-particulates in the stratosphere causes health issues due to the fact that they are absorbed into any living creature and cause respiratory problems.

  16. RossBo October 5, 2018 at 12:16 pm - Reply

    Seeing the snow pics from North Dakota is getting this snow lover excited!

  17. Frankie October 5, 2018 at 1:25 pm - Reply

    FV3 GFS is hinting at some serious cold air in roughly 2 weeks. Could be looking at our first frost here soon and possibly our first freeze within 20 days

  18. f00dl3 October 5, 2018 at 2:25 pm - Reply

    Shocked Gary is not talking about the LRC Hurricane Hotspot right now offshore Panama City Beach. Models have been teasing at it now for several days, right on par with where the Rocky trough / eastern US High is too. GFS 12z shows a storm taking same track as Gordon, Sept 4 – Oct 10 ==> 36 days later. Coincidence? It gets stuck in the flow differences that the 2nd “New LRC’s” storm causes as it kicks out from the “Old LRC’s ” Rocky mountain trough, but it’s still there.

    • A1hoops October 5, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

      Are you saying the new cycle is around 36 days?

      • f00dl3 October 5, 2018 at 3:51 pm - Reply

        Maybe. Would be a short pattern length though for sure if that’s the case.

        The Western Trough is definitely a new feature. All summer we had a ridge where this trough was both in late August/early Sept and now.

        FH 111 vs 8/31 @ 00z. Look how the trough out west is in place as the storm ejects out of the trough. On 8/31 that storm was a notch while the main trough stayed out west over the Rockies. This time because the jet stream is stronger the storm actually pulls a larger trough up with it and briefly retreats / rotates back around and another storm forms in the syphon action left by the displacement of air.
        Look at FH204 of the 12z GFS vs 500 mb map on the 9/7 at 00z

        https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_180907_00.gif

        That little notch over SD / NE near Rushmore area… due to stronger jet stream in the GFS shows to dip into Oklahoma as a deep carved out trough.

        Let’s see if this materializes. If so, in winter this 2nd storm that forms around Oct 13 would be a perfect winter storm candidate as it would dip down to Amarillo w/ this same pattern in December/Jan/Feb.

        • A1hoops October 5, 2018 at 4:25 pm - Reply

          This would be interesting if indeed the pattern has already started. Not sure if I’m excited though about a short cycle length if it’s only 35 days

        • f00dl3 October 5, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

          Just saw Gary just put a video on this. I think things are blending in right now so we will see a mix of both LRCs for a few months. In reality we may have already seen a mix of both LRCs for the past few months. Like Gary previously said, we may have been 2% new 98% old LRC. Maybe it’s more like from August – October we are 20% new/80% old LRC. From October to December we are 50% old/50% new, December to February we are 20% old/80% new LRC, and February to August we are 100% new LRC. We should maybe not try to think of the LRCs as a night and day cut-over date and more as a at first gradual but then rapid transition when the Jet stream picks up between October and March?

          In some ways that could explain why also we were so darn cold the first half of Winter last year, and after mid January, we never got all that cold again? And that happens more often than just last year, too! Maybe just *** just *** enough of the past LRC plays a part early Winter until February where the Jet stream is at it’s peak strength.

          • f00dl3 October 5, 2018 at 5:07 pm - Reply

            Would also explain years where we have no snow until mid January than we get dumped on 3 times in a row like Winter 2011. And also explains the whole EPBI / old “FRMC” theory I have, where it takes until February for the moisture pattern to synch with the upper levels. I mean the LRC in it’s heart is a pattern based off the 500 millibar level. All you have to do is see how water reacts to wind to know that it could take a while for things to equalize through the 3D atmosphere to a at first gradual than abrupt change to a new flow, and overturn the temperature differences remaining at the surface / moisture content of the subsurface of different areas influencing the flow.

          • Gary October 5, 2018 at 7:01 pm - Reply

            Once we get past around October 5th, then it becomes around 95% and 5%, so goodbye old pattern, and by mid November it is 100% new LRC through mid – late August, then it may morph to around 95% old and 5% new until around the Autumnal equinox.

            Gary

            • Richard October 5, 2018 at 8:03 pm - Reply

              Gary
              I asked about the autumnal equinox twice. You never answered. But now you bring it up here.
              Does it have a connection to the new LRC forming ?

              And mid-late August it might morph to 5% new ? I thought it was 100% OLD until late Sept. that is what you have been telling us.

              • Gary October 5, 2018 at 9:21 pm

                I already answered it many times, Richard. It is just my hypothesis that there is a connection to the beginning. We don’t know for sure. It has to be more than a coincidence that once the sun sets at the North Pole, twilight ends and it goes dark tonight, on the 5th into the 7th, and the new pattern begins. Now, if you ask again, I likely won’t answer again.

                Gary

            • Richard October 6, 2018 at 8:49 am - Reply

              Wrong Gary
              I asked twice. You did not answer until now.
              But thanks for answering

    • Richard October 5, 2018 at 4:54 pm - Reply

      f00dl3
      Gary just now mentioned the possible hurricane in the Gulf next week on air. He said “targeting nw Fl. “again”
      So wouldn’t that mean its still the old LRC, by him saying “again?”
      And also another one in the Pacific that might bring us rain.

  19. Kathy October 5, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

    I am currently in the UP of Michigan at Whitefish Point where it is cold and rainy. Locals tell me this is even too cold for early Oct. They said their summer was dry with spotty heavy rain just like us.. Wonder if this cold wet weather is the type of weather we will have in two weeks.

    • Bluetooth October 6, 2018 at 7:42 am - Reply

      Yes…very cold and wet.

  20. Roger October 5, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Silicon Valley and its Ice911 project.
    http://www.ice911.org/

  21. Roger October 5, 2018 at 3:34 pm - Reply

    That warm front did wonders for Garden City, KS. Temperature spiked from 60 degrees at noon to 91 degrees at 3:00!

  22. KirksvilleDave October 5, 2018 at 3:41 pm - Reply

    We got 1.60” of rain up in Kirksville since early morning!

  23. Turd Ferguson October 5, 2018 at 5:25 pm - Reply

    Mt on 4 just shredded rain totals thru Sunday to “inch, maybe inch and a half. Not as aggressive as what we were looking at yesterday”. Hmm. Sounds familiar.. Like every other system??? Gary will spin this “new system”

    And you all eat it up.

    • Heat Miser October 5, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

      LoL…if you don’t believe the models were accurate yesterday, why do you believe they are accurate today? OOpss.

    • Gary October 5, 2018 at 7:02 pm - Reply

      Only on the models. My forecast doesn’t change.

    • Terry October 5, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

      I smell a troll

  24. Hockeynut69 October 5, 2018 at 7:18 pm - Reply

    I got .7” this morning and had .25 from Wednesday. Looks like plenty more the next few days.

  25. Nate October 5, 2018 at 9:24 pm - Reply

    Just pounded the last nails into my Ark, now patiently waiting on the new pattern

  26. Dan L October 5, 2018 at 9:34 pm - Reply

    Lol

  27. KS Jones October 5, 2018 at 11:07 pm - Reply

    Got clipped at 10:10 PM by the leading edge as it slipped by north of here. Now we’re getting steady rain, lightning and thunder, but not much wind, and the line of storm cells southwest of here looks like it will train over us for awhile. Radar estimates of rainfall show 2.5″ has already fallen in the Little Blue River watershed.
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default&region=sln&animate=true

    • KS Jones October 6, 2018 at 12:44 am - Reply

      Have gotten slightly more than an inch of rain since it began steadily raining at 10:30. We’re now on the northern fringe of the line of storm cells as it slowly drifts east.

  28. Adam October 6, 2018 at 5:46 am - Reply

    Yeah…this is definitely different. There’s a giant wall of rain moving in right now. Wow

  29. My Keystone October 6, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

    Mahomes is finally going to see a credible DEFENSE! GO JAGS!!!

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