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Good morning bloggers,

Rain and a few thunderstorms area tracking across today.  Temperatures will be jumping into the 80s as a warm front moves through.  Today is likely the true finale to the old pattern, as the new LRC begins on Saturday morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain and a few thunderstorms likely this morning. Some sun breaking out with a temperature surge to near or above 80 degrees. The chance of rain goes from 90% this morning to 10% this afternoon.
  • Tonight: Dry for Friday Night Lights. Temperatures dropping later tonight into the 50s
  • Saturday: A 100% chance of rain, possibly heavy at times during the morning. There may be a break in the rain by later in the day.  Temperatures falling  into the 50s and staying there.
  • Sunday:  Southeast winds return with a 100% chance of rain and a few thunderstorms. There may be a break in the rain for a few hours. High: 73°

Rainfall totals of 1″ to 5″ likely by Tuesday.

Have a great Friday. Go Chiefs! Go Patrick Mahomes! And, go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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My Keystone
Guest
My Keystone

Mahomes is finally going to see a credible DEFENSE! GO JAGS!!!

Adam
Guest
Adam

Yeah…this is definitely different. There’s a giant wall of rain moving in right now. Wow

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Got clipped at 10:10 PM by the leading edge as it slipped by north of here. Now we’re getting steady rain, lightning and thunder, but not much wind, and the line of storm cells southwest of here looks like it will train over us for awhile. Radar estimates of rainfall show 2.5″ has already fallen in the Little Blue River watershed.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default&region=sln&animate=true

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Have gotten slightly more than an inch of rain since it began steadily raining at 10:30. We’re now on the northern fringe of the line of storm cells as it slowly drifts east.

Dan L
Guest
Dan L

Lol

Nate
Guest
Nate

Just pounded the last nails into my Ark, now patiently waiting on the new pattern

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I got .7” this morning and had .25 from Wednesday. Looks like plenty more the next few days.

Turd Ferguson
Guest
Turd Ferguson

Mt on 4 just shredded rain totals thru Sunday to “inch, maybe inch and a half. Not as aggressive as what we were looking at yesterday”. Hmm. Sounds familiar.. Like every other system??? Gary will spin this “new system”

And you all eat it up.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…if you don’t believe the models were accurate yesterday, why do you believe they are accurate today? OOpss.

Terry
Guest
Terry

I smell a troll

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

We got 1.60” of rain up in Kirksville since early morning!

Roger
Guest
Roger

That warm front did wonders for Garden City, KS. Temperature spiked from 60 degrees at noon to 91 degrees at 3:00!

Roger
Guest
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Rather than adding things into the atmosphere – with possible side effects we may not currently be aware of – I prefer the idea of sucking the offending extra CO2 out of the air and turning it into something useful. Like this:
https://www.businessinsider.com/carbon-capture-co2-plant-2017-6

Roger
Guest
Roger

Some people have taken illegal geoengineering measures into their own hands.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/15/pacific-iron-fertilisation-geoengineering

Roger
Guest
Roger

Silicon Valley and its Ice911 project.
http://www.ice911.org/

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

I am currently in the UP of Michigan at Whitefish Point where it is cold and rainy. Locals tell me this is even too cold for early Oct. They said their summer was dry with spotty heavy rain just like us.. Wonder if this cold wet weather is the type of weather we will have in two weeks.

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Yes…very cold and wet.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Shocked Gary is not talking about the LRC Hurricane Hotspot right now offshore Panama City Beach. Models have been teasing at it now for several days, right on par with where the Rocky trough / eastern US High is too. GFS 12z shows a storm taking same track as Gordon, Sept 4 – Oct 10 ==> 36 days later. Coincidence? It gets stuck in the flow differences that the 2nd “New LRC’s” storm causes as it kicks out from the “Old LRC’s ” Rocky mountain trough, but it’s still there.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Are you saying the new cycle is around 36 days?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Maybe. Would be a short pattern length though for sure if that’s the case. The Western Trough is definitely a new feature. All summer we had a ridge where this trough was both in late August/early Sept and now. FH 111 vs 8/31 @ 00z. Look how the trough out west is in place as the storm ejects out of the trough. On 8/31 that storm was a notch while the main trough stayed out west over the Rockies. This time because the jet stream is stronger the storm actually pulls a larger trough up with it and briefly retreats… Read more »

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

This would be interesting if indeed the pattern has already started. Not sure if I’m excited though about a short cycle length if it’s only 35 days

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Just saw Gary just put a video on this. I think things are blending in right now so we will see a mix of both LRCs for a few months. In reality we may have already seen a mix of both LRCs for the past few months. Like Gary previously said, we may have been 2% new 98% old LRC. Maybe it’s more like from August – October we are 20% new/80% old LRC. From October to December we are 50% old/50% new, December to February we are 20% old/80% new LRC, and February to August we are 100% new… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Would also explain years where we have no snow until mid January than we get dumped on 3 times in a row like Winter 2011. And also explains the whole EPBI / old “FRMC” theory I have, where it takes until February for the moisture pattern to synch with the upper levels. I mean the LRC in it’s heart is a pattern based off the 500 millibar level. All you have to do is see how water reacts to wind to know that it could take a while for things to equalize through the 3D atmosphere to a at first… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

f00dl3
Gary just now mentioned the possible hurricane in the Gulf next week on air. He said “targeting nw Fl. “again”
So wouldn’t that mean its still the old LRC, by him saying “again?”
And also another one in the Pacific that might bring us rain.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

FV3 GFS is hinting at some serious cold air in roughly 2 weeks. Could be looking at our first frost here soon and possibly our first freeze within 20 days

RossBo
Guest
RossBo

Seeing the snow pics from North Dakota is getting this snow lover excited!

birdieman
Guest
birdieman

Please weather engineering black helicopter folks, set up a deluge over Jordan’s lawn/farm so he can peel himself off the ceiling…

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Those black ops a-holes have something against Wyandotte County and precipitation prediction accuracy.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

“Eye of newt, and toe of frog, Wool of bat, and tongue of dog, Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting, Lizard’s leg, and howlet’s wing,– For a charm of powerful trouble, Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.” https://newint.org/features/special/2008/08/01/technofixes 2 August 2008  Nowhere is that talisman more apparent than in the new strategies emerging from the US right wing. Newt Gingrich, a prominent Republican strategist and former climate sceptic, is now a ‘believer’ in climate change but is choosing an election year to fight against carbon dioxide emission reductions. He claims he has a better proposal: namely ‘geo-engineering’, the large-scale intentional manipulation… Read more »

Roger
Guest
Roger

Unfortunately, that has been going on for a long time. Spraying nano-particulates in the stratosphere causes health issues due to the fact that they are absorbed into any living creature and cause respiratory problems.

Anthony
Guest
Anthony

Use the date of the system/storm as its name so that it is easy to reference and track

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yes, dates would be better than random names.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Nice t storm in Gladstone

I’m all for naming storms.

Let’s come to a consensus and then we can all enjoy the evolution of this lrc together and on the same page.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Big thunder storm I. WYCO now

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Any ideas on if they could issue a flash flood watch for the area?

Richard
Guest
Richard

I think this rainy period is different, even though it rained last October too.
I think we will have a snowy winter !!

Good luck in Vegas on Sunday Gary.

Sunny must be confused what with vacations and moving into an apartment,
Big dogs need yards to run. How is she doing.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

90% chance of rain before 10am, yet my rain gauge is still bone dry. This is really shaping up to be a wet pattern! Combined with all the rain I got Wednesday night, I’m going to need to build an ark!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Also, I thought we were 3.5″ on the low end with this storm. It’s down to 1″ now?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

There’s a storm approaching you just to your south.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Wow, a rain prediction might actually pan out for northern Wyandotte? I’m… shocked, to say the least.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

I will firmly plant my foot in my mouth on this one, but we’re still well under 50% on precipitation predictions more than 24 hours out for the year.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

Gary, I would like a summary of how you believe the switch between patterns happens. So a while back we started with 2% new/old pattern—tomorrow 100% new. Does the pattern change like a big bucket of water at a water park, where it gradually fills and then tips, or is it more like once it’s a little past halfway it tips? Is twilight at the North Pole the tipping point,, if so what percentage is the old/new cycle at this point? I’m curious as to how the cycling pattern morphs. OK second question. Last year you put out a blog… Read more »

Richard
Guest
Richard

Yesterday I asked Gary if the autumnal equinox and the jet stream strengthening play a part in the new LRC forming.
No answer.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Mike,’

Great observation with the North Pole. I believe that is what signals the change in the overall pattern

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I don’t remember it raining this hard for this long. Sidewalks are starting to flood in downtown Independence.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

It’s pouring out in downtown Independence.

Mike
Guest
Mike

Use Presidents last names….

Terry
Guest
Terry

Yes use bloggers names.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Been saying this for years! Each and every system needs a name to identify it, and Gary needs to develop a simple nomenclature system that ties the each storm to each cycle so it makes sense. A-1 in the first cycle, A-2 in the second cycle, A-3 in the third cycle and so on. It could be set up a number of ways, but the LRC needs an identification system without question.

BSMike
Member
BSMike

or use bloggers names

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Jordan!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Hey! We can start with today’s warm front that Gary says has a 90% chance of rain this morning, but hasn’t given me a single drop yet! He’s knocking these predictions out of the park!

Jordan
Guest
Jordan

Actually, don’t name it after me, because we actually got some rain out of a cell today.we’re inching that sub-50% accuracy up!

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Gary since the new pattern is about to begin can we naming these systems so the bloggers can keep up when you say the storms match up? Maybe chiefs players names? Or storm A,B, etc

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

I’m on board with this idea

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yes please.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

What would be really neat would be to post the current 500mb height pattern map for every blog post, that way we can see the pattern for any day we want to going back through the whole pattern just by going back through the blog archives.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

That would be too perfect lol

Clint
Guest
Clint

GREAT IDEA!

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I also like this idea! I think we need a way to keep track of the LRC# (like 2018/2019 LRC), the cycle number (1, 2, 3…), and the storm name (A, B, C…) or something like that. That way in March when we talk about “the Thanksgiving week storm” people actually know what we are talking about.