The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

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Good morning bloggers,

The old pattern is almost over.  The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin.  Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be  quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.

Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 6.59.36 AM

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning.  Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern.  This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year.  The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance.  Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:

1

At 7 PM tonight Rosa will be crossing the coast and spreading some rain into the southwestern United States. The old LRC and new LRC are combining in last years last gasp at frustrating us in KC.  Look at what happens just a couple days later:

2

This strong cold front is being generated by the old LRC. The pattern is actually ending on the cold part of the 2017-2018 pattern, and something so incredibly different is developing.  A small storm system is forming near California and this storm gets kicked out as something much larger develops:

3

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds with a front near by.  South winds south of the front with northeast winds north of the front.  High: 80°
  • Tuesday:  A few clouds and warmer. South winds 10-20 mph.  High:  84°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with near record high temperatures.  High:  85°

4

So, with a different pattern, we will get very different results.  This rainfall forecast above shows 2 to 5 inch amounts by Sunday night near KC.  Let’s see how this sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation, or read the comments from other bloggers and have a great day:

Gary

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GaryKS JonesSnow MiserMike HolmKathy Recent comment authors
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Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

We should have a National LRC Day. 😀

Mike Holm
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Mike Holm

Gary, I want to learn more about the LRC. I know all of the basics and have successfully used the pattern to predict storms to plan ski trips. Do you ever have a workshop?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Is it the downward tilt in the jet stream from eastern Montana into the Dakotas that is getting everybody excited?
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The jet stream changed in the past hour and the dip I referred to earlier is no longer there.

Kathy
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Kathy

I always thought that JL and Gary were kind of on the same page…the other guy, not at all. In fact, I get depressed after hearing his forecasts, but JL presents a lot of insight and detail. Similarly, I really enjoy JL’s blog because he goes into depth with facts and figures and why things happen. I learn a lot from Gary’s and JL’s blog, which is why I read them….the debates and sarcasm on here…not so much. And, I might add, I would REALLY LIKE to see systems not form east of us and perhaps that the eastern U.S.… Read more »

Matt
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Matt

Who is ready for some thunder snow? The best weather event known to mankind.

Terry
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Terry

That’s what I want to happen this winter is Thundersnow I’m dreaming I want that .

Rod
Guest
Rod

Any chance that the trough will be negatively tilted or is it looking to be positively tilted? I know in winter having a negativity tilted storm often means it’s a stronger system. Thanks Rod (Ashland, MO)

BSMike
Member
BSMike

Joe is under the curse of MT, always loved JL but can do without the Dictator on the furry channel!!

Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

“There are increasingly strong indications of a significant change in the pattern heading towards the weekend and next week. A strong dip in the jet stream will occur across the western part of the country while an unusually strong ridge will occur across the eastern part of the country. Interestingly…somewhat the same thing happened last October during the 1st week as well.”

This is from Joe Lauria’s Fox 4 blog, he seems to be catching on to the LRC. He sees significant pattern change coming this first week of OCT.

Richard
Guest
Richard

But he says the same thing happened during first week of Oct last year as well ?
So in one paragraph he’s saying there is a change coming, but same as last year,
That makes no sense.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

We got 7.35″ of rain in September and have gotten 29.09″ year-to-date. There are conflicting climate data-sets for this area north of Manhattan, so the ytd amount is roughly average or slightly below average. The forecast from Weather Underground shows we could get 3.44″ of rain from Wednesday (10/03) through Wednesday (10/10), which is above our average for the whole month of October.
The WU forecast for Overland Park shows 3.24″ through that same eight-day time period.

craig
Guest
craig

The 2017-18 LRC is dead.
Long live the 2018-19 LRC!!!

Terry
Guest
Terry

Huge trough over the western United States ? Is that good for us here Gary ?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Was wondering the same

BSMike
Member
BSMike

🤘🏽🐂 sorry Gary now onto the weather 😄.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

And Accuweather is still predicting a white Christmas! 😛
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kansas-city-mo/64106/month/329441?monyr=12/01/2018

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Maybe by this time next year we’ll all be complaining about how wet the last year had been and all the catastrophic flooding and tornadoes we got. :-/

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Here we go… let’s hope that model verifies, as it would be huge for this new LRC

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

We had a fairly wet September up here in Maryville. I recorded 5.93″ total over 11 rain events. The biggest was on September 3rd with a recording of 2.25″ of rain. The least was on September 7th with just a trace. Things are looking pretty green again and we are finally out of the drought. Just the Southeast corner of Nodaway county is still in the drought.
Michael

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

excited that we are now finally a few days away from the new pattern developing and ready for the severe outbreak of modelitis season!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

If we really do get the influence of a western trough, that should be HUGE. Especially in that location.