The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

/The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

Good morning bloggers,

The old pattern is almost over.  The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin.  Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be  quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.

Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 6.59.36 AM

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning.  Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern.  This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year.  The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance.  Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:

1

At 7 PM tonight Rosa will be crossing the coast and spreading some rain into the southwestern United States. The old LRC and new LRC are combining in last years last gasp at frustrating us in KC.  Look at what happens just a couple days later:

2

This strong cold front is being generated by the old LRC. The pattern is actually ending on the cold part of the 2017-2018 pattern, and something so incredibly different is developing.  A small storm system is forming near California and this storm gets kicked out as something much larger develops:

3

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds with a front near by.  South winds south of the front with northeast winds north of the front.  High: 80°
  • Tuesday:  A few clouds and warmer. South winds 10-20 mph.  High:  84°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with near record high temperatures.  High:  85°

4

So, with a different pattern, we will get very different results.  This rainfall forecast above shows 2 to 5 inch amounts by Sunday night near KC.  Let’s see how this sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation, or read the comments from other bloggers and have a great day:

Gary

2018-10-03T07:40:00+00:00October 1st, 2018|General|29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Three7s October 1, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    If we really do get the influence of a western trough, that should be HUGE. Especially in that location.

  2. A1hoops October 1, 2018 at 7:59 am - Reply

    excited that we are now finally a few days away from the new pattern developing and ready for the severe outbreak of modelitis season!

  3. Michael Casteel October 1, 2018 at 8:00 am - Reply

    We had a fairly wet September up here in Maryville. I recorded 5.93″ total over 11 rain events. The biggest was on September 3rd with a recording of 2.25″ of rain. The least was on September 7th with just a trace. Things are looking pretty green again and we are finally out of the drought. Just the Southeast corner of Nodaway county is still in the drought.
    Michael

  4. Lary Gezak October 1, 2018 at 8:03 am - Reply

    Here we go… let’s hope that model verifies, as it would be huge for this new LRC

  5. Snow Miser October 1, 2018 at 8:08 am - Reply

    Maybe by this time next year we’ll all be complaining about how wet the last year had been and all the catastrophic flooding and tornadoes we got. :-/

  6. Snow Miser October 1, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    And Accuweather is still predicting a white Christmas! 😛
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kansas-city-mo/64106/month/329441?monyr=12/01/2018

  7. BSMike October 1, 2018 at 8:13 am - Reply

    🤘🏽🐂 sorry Gary now onto the weather 😄.

  8. Terry October 1, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    Huge trough over the western United States ? Is that good for us here Gary ?

    • Anonymous October 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

      Was wondering the same

  9. craig October 1, 2018 at 9:33 am - Reply

    The 2017-18 LRC is dead.
    Long live the 2018-19 LRC!!!

  10. KS Jones October 1, 2018 at 9:37 am - Reply

    We got 7.35″ of rain in September and have gotten 29.09″ year-to-date. There are conflicting climate data-sets for this area north of Manhattan, so the ytd amount is roughly average or slightly below average. The forecast from Weather Underground shows we could get 3.44″ of rain from Wednesday (10/03) through Wednesday (10/10), which is above our average for the whole month of October.
    The WU forecast for Overland Park shows 3.24″ through that same eight-day time period.

  11. Lary Gezak October 1, 2018 at 9:46 am - Reply

    “There are increasingly strong indications of a significant change in the pattern heading towards the weekend and next week. A strong dip in the jet stream will occur across the western part of the country while an unusually strong ridge will occur across the eastern part of the country. Interestingly…somewhat the same thing happened last October during the 1st week as well.”

    This is from Joe Lauria’s Fox 4 blog, he seems to be catching on to the LRC. He sees significant pattern change coming this first week of OCT.

    • Richard October 1, 2018 at 10:08 am - Reply

      But he says the same thing happened during first week of Oct last year as well ?
      So in one paragraph he’s saying there is a change coming, but same as last year,
      That makes no sense.

      • Gary October 1, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

        Richard,

        That’s how it seems to you, and this is not I feel he is saying, and who cares anyway. He is stating, that just like last October, he is seeing something he has not seen. This is the first basic premise of the LRC. He isn’t saying, I don’t believe, that he is seeing the same thing as last year.

        Gary

        • Richard October 1, 2018 at 11:07 am - Reply

          Gary
          Ok, I got confused by that. Seems he was saying same thing happened last year. As in strong dip in jet stream out west.

    • Gary October 1, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

      I have been sharing this with Joe for 24 years, when he was my coworker, to this point. The LRC is that difficult of a concept for my peers. Joe understands, like many of you understand, and seeing the puzzle is beyond the incredible. It is still very difficult to see the puzzle, the solution that will change the face of meteorology some day.

      Gary

      • Urbanity October 1, 2018 at 11:30 am - Reply

        If precipitation dates and amounts are relevant then you could say that this early October is the same as last year AND the year before. So what do we look at, where the precipitation producing event originated from? With the fall air mass from the north impeding on the warmth to the south it doesn’t take much of a disturbance to produce modest rainfall, that same disturbance might not produce at all during the winter. What I am looking for is at least one but hopefully two negatively tilted troughs to come out of the west, preferably the southwest, during October 10 – 31. If we see that then I believe we could be in for a helluva ride this year.

        • Richard October 1, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

          Urbanity,
          You are right. We had a rainy Oct last year. Until we didn’t.
          And negatively tilted trough is what we need. Which I don’t think happened in the old lrc.
          That’s one thing I remember being talked about the last 2 yrs. The troughs not tilting negatively.
          So much has to fall into place.
          (And are we in El Nino or La Nina ?)

  12. BSMike October 1, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    Joe is under the curse of MT, always loved JL but can do without the Dictator on the furry channel!!

  13. Rod October 1, 2018 at 11:55 am - Reply

    Any chance that the trough will be negatively tilted or is it looking to be positively tilted? I know in winter having a negativity tilted storm often means it’s a stronger system. Thanks Rod (Ashland, MO)

  14. Matt October 1, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

    Who is ready for some thunder snow? The best weather event known to mankind.

    • Terry October 1, 2018 at 1:57 pm - Reply

      That’s what I want to happen this winter is Thundersnow I’m dreaming I want that .

  15. Kathy October 1, 2018 at 2:35 pm - Reply

    I always thought that JL and Gary were kind of on the same page…the other guy, not at all. In fact, I get depressed after hearing his forecasts, but JL presents a lot of insight and detail. Similarly, I really enjoy JL’s blog because he goes into depth with facts and figures and why things happen. I learn a lot from Gary’s and JL’s blog, which is why I read them….the debates and sarcasm on here…not so much. And, I might add, I would REALLY LIKE to see systems not form east of us and perhaps that the eastern U.S. and us switch weather patterns for a change. Guess we’ll see what happens.

  16. KS Jones October 1, 2018 at 3:36 pm - Reply

    Is it the downward tilt in the jet stream from eastern Montana into the Dakotas that is getting everybody excited?
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

    • KS Jones October 1, 2018 at 4:39 pm - Reply

      The jet stream changed in the past hour and the dip I referred to earlier is no longer there.

  17. Mike Holm October 1, 2018 at 4:54 pm - Reply

    Gary, I want to learn more about the LRC. I know all of the basics and have successfully used the pattern to predict storms to plan ski trips. Do you ever have a workshop?

    • Gary October 1, 2018 at 11:23 pm - Reply

      I’m sure there will be one someday.

  18. Snow Miser October 1, 2018 at 5:18 pm - Reply

    We should have a National LRC Day. 😀

Leave A Comment