A Massive Change In The Weather Pattern In Around Two Weeks

/A Massive Change In The Weather Pattern In Around Two Weeks

A Massive Change In The Weather Pattern In Around Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

What we have all been waiting for will arrive in around 15 more days. The pattern we are currently in is the old pattern that set up last October.  It was the worst pattern ever, in my opinion, for the Kansas City region for enjoying the results and fulfillment of our weather hobbies. Again, this is more objective and just my opinion, and yet I know many of you would agree with me. Oh, we were constantly entertained, as there were very few stretches where “nothing” was going on, and unfortunately we were left frustrated around 90% of the time, which is off the charts bad.  Look at this in 15 days:


This is a fantasy prediction where a computer model attempts to showcase a new pattern. It is just “fantasy”, until we experience reality.  This would be a perfect time for a big western trough, picking up a tropical storm.  I will patiently wait.


These next two maps above, show today and Saturday, the surface flow. Today will be cooler as drier air moves in from the north. Have a great day!


2018-09-22T08:43:06+00:00September 21st, 2018|General|25 Comments


  1. Michael Casteel September 21, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

    I recorded .45″ of rain up here in Maryville last night. The wind sure did blow too. Had a few smaller branches down around the yards at work. Love, love, love the cooler weather. Now all we need is a frost to kill off the pollen! Have a great weekend Bloggers!

  2. Snow Miser September 21, 2018 at 8:14 am - Reply

    I can tell there’s going to be a totally new, different and much more favorable pattern this cycle, because the Browns won.

    • Anonymous September 21, 2018 at 10:31 am - Reply


  3. Hockeynut69 September 21, 2018 at 8:15 am - Reply

    Same pattern still. Promising radar to the west and then a little over a tenth of an inch in reality. Hoping for a new pattern with more active weather that actually impacts our area.

    • MMike September 21, 2018 at 9:42 am - Reply


      We’ll forget about the back to back to back to back to back to back..(etc)rains from late July through earlier this month. We’ll forget about the week of rain two weeks ago when tropical storm Gordon was in the region.

      We’ll forget about the full dormancy of turf in late July to lush fast growing turf in mid August.

      Same ole pattern then, right?

      • KS Jones September 21, 2018 at 1:09 pm - Reply

        The drought map shows KC and the surrounding areas are still in extreme drought or worse. The drought was never that bad out this way, and despite our above average rainfall ytd the water table is still low and many of our spring-fed creeks are dry. We’ll need several gentle rains over an extended duration to bring the water table up to normal. Many of the rains we got this year were worthless gully washers.

      • Bill in Lawrence September 21, 2018 at 1:22 pm - Reply


        Happy Friday!!

        Good to see you back on the blog!!

        I have to respectfully disagree however on this pattern. Yes…some of the waves/energy produced more rain in cycle 7 than in cycle 6 and for sure, that rain brought my grass back and saved the Douglas County bean crop and yes, I was so happy to have it!!! However, I have had 8 rain events in the past month that totaled 2.5 inches; a pattern has to work hard for that in this area under this climate regime. That is darn reminiscent of 13 snow/ice/sleet events totaling 10 inches or less. The grass is fine, but Washington Creek has not ran since April; Clinton is close to 10 feet low and getting close to being below the water intakes for Lawrence water supply and the bodies of water on the property I share are close to 10 feet low. So while we have had the rain in the past month to save the grass and flower beds, the water table is in a very precarious situation here.

        Just a different perspective…

        All this said, in some weird way, I think you gotta give a hand to this LRC….I mean it can’t be easy for a pattern to have 13 frozen events tally less than 10 inches and have 8 events in one the wettest times of the year produce 2.5 inches….that is really quite some feat. As Bill Murray said in Caddy Shack….I have to laugh…..

        Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

        • Mike Holm September 21, 2018 at 3:09 pm - Reply

          Sorry Bill, but Clinton lake is less than 2 feet low. I am on that lake frequently. Here is the Corp of Engineers report.
          Lake Elevation: 873.67
          Normal Elevation: 875.50
          Outflow to Wakarusa: 21 CFS

          • Richard September 21, 2018 at 7:56 pm - Reply

            What about Perry.
            And Lone Star.
            Went to Lone Star years ago. Stayed in a cabin. Nice little lake. Away from the maddening crowds.

  4. Richard September 21, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

    Massive change in the pattern implies a massive change in our weather.
    Massive is a strong word.
    A pattern change will happen in 2 weeks.
    Remains to be seen how massive it is.
    Hopefully it will at least be a wetter pattern for KC.

    • Bill September 21, 2018 at 9:41 am - Reply

      That is exactly why he used the word massive. Ughhhhh I just can’t with you today, ma’am.

      Although I’m sad to see summer go, I’m ready for a true fall followed by a snowy winter.

  5. Lary Gezak September 21, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    I can’t tell… is that “fantasy” output of the GFS favorable for KC, or not? I see the huge trough to our west but we are on the backend of a ridge

    • Dustin TheWind September 21, 2018 at 10:00 am - Reply

      If we are still in this same pattern, it means Emporia or Omaha gets 5 inches of rain, and KC proper gets a trace. 🙂

      • KS Jones September 21, 2018 at 4:17 pm - Reply

        The rain we got last night should dampen the road to Alcove Spring (north of Blue Rapids) enough to suppress some of the Dust in the Wind for the gig tomorrow.
        Kansas has sold out arenas and stadiums in North America, Europe and Japan, released nine gold albums and three multi-platinum albums. On Saturday the band will add a concert at Alcove Spring Historic Park to its resume.

  6. MikeL September 21, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

    Over here on Drought Island in SW Topeka we received .20 overnight at my house. Yep, this result pretty much followed the old pattern.

    Far too early to tell on the “new” pattern, but I am guessing mostly northwest flow with systems missing us to the north and south for much of the winter. In other words, more of the same.

  7. Mike Holm September 21, 2018 at 10:27 am - Reply

    Gary, Does cycle length affect the type of weather we have? With my calculations I predict the next cycle length will be between 52-57 centering on 54.5 days, using the data from your research paper( it would help to know day one of each cycle over the past 15 years). We will hit the tipping point soon and will be able to verify the cycle length by finding the harmonics within the first cycle of the new pattern.
    So what do you think? Have you analyzed a connection between cycle length and weather?

  8. Mike September 21, 2018 at 10:56 am - Reply

    Gary always uses that sentence ” massive change to the pattern” during this time of the year. But it remains the same but different every year. 😄

  9. Anonymous September 21, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    You say objective but you mean subjective.

  10. Jordan September 21, 2018 at 12:29 pm - Reply

    I hope we’re in for a massive change, but the models are still showing pretty much every low pressure center over the next couple of weeks far to our north with a band of rain extending down through the middle of the country that falls apart as soon as it reaches our doorstep.

  11. KS Jones September 21, 2018 at 12:41 pm - Reply

    Got 0.61 of rain” before midnight, which brought our September rainfall to 7.1″; our ytd to 28.84″, and the forecast says we could get an additional 0.7″ before the end of the month.

  12. Snow Miser September 21, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply
  13. bench.warmer4 September 21, 2018 at 1:20 pm - Reply

    I don’t agree that a massive change in pattern equates with significant changes in results in a particular location. I can contemplate the possibility of widely differing patterns producing similar local results. Hopefully not, but I’d think it could be possible.

  14. j-ox September 21, 2018 at 1:50 pm - Reply

    Wave/trough patterns must tap Gulf or Pacific moisture to fuel precip events.
    Unlike 2012, we were quite humid this Summer, even during the drought.
    Lawrence airport: currently at 17.87″ = nearly 13″ below avg.

  15. Garrett September 21, 2018 at 6:42 pm - Reply

    Gary is this that kind of pattern we want to see for future storms? Just by visuals you mention the tilt? This seems to have that somewhat almost vertical movement, that brings that moisture from the southwest and west over us?

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