Here We Go Again, One Last Time

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Good morning bloggers,

While the east coast has yet another major rain event, after a lot of snow events this past winter, Kansas City is likely again in the “wrong spot” for the end of the week wet system. Just yesterday I argued that it would bring us some badly needed rain, since it has been dry this month in a few spots again (KCI Airport is sitting at 0.88″ in September).  And now, it appears the system is going to target areas farther south.  There is still a pretty decent chance of rain Thursday night as a front moves through, and then a heavy rain event will set up well south of KC on Friday into Saturday.  Take a look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS model ending Sunday morning:

gfs_apcpn_us_21

As it is easily seen, our region near KC is in a drier spot. There are 2″+ amounts over northern Nebraska and Iowa, and also over Oklahoma and Texas.  It is only Tuesday, so let’s see if that system forms near Baja, CA.

The Remnants of CAT 4 Hurricane Florence are moving off into the Atlantic Ocean today. This wet system weakened to a CAT 1 storm as it drifted along the North Carolina coast south into South Carolina. This system produced rainfall estimates in the over 30″ range in a few spots, and it is reminiscent of what happened with Harvey last year.  Let’s take a look. These graphics are from the Weather Underground Blog:

state-tc-precip-records

The North Carolina record was likely just broken with over 30″ in spots.

7

Last years Harvey was a bit different, yet also a stalling and slow moving system that set records.  The track of Harvey is also shown on this map.

harvey-est-rainfall

It will be another hot day in KC with high humidity.  It will be close to 90 degrees each day until the cold front moves through Thursday night.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Anonymous
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Anonymous

Nah, get a 15 minute hail storm on the morning of the 4th and bingo! “White” 4th :p

Anonymous
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Anonymous

It’s the same but different. Pay no attention to the 3+ inches we got. Think more like O.J.’s lawyer: If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

We haven’t had any snow in October since 2002. I think we’re due.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

We had a “trace” in some spots on Halloween last year! Crazy…

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Do you have 3 different accounts? Jesus

Lary
Guest
Lary

We had a “trace” in some spots on Halloween last year! Crazy

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

We had a “trace” in some spots last year on Halloween! Crazy

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I remember it was cold last Halloween but we didn’t get any snow where I am.

I’d like a trace of snow on Halloween, and then maybe an inch or half-inch on Thanksgiving. Just for the heck of it.

Last year we had snow on the ground on Christmas from the previous day. Then we had a white Easter. So to round it off I want a white Halloween and Thanksgiving.

I suppose it would be too much to ask for a white Forth of July.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Gary let me get your thoughts on Mahomes!!!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

96 here in St. Joseph now, heat index of 101. We are 12.92 inches ytd, normal is 28.47 and down 15.55 inches for the year. At least at the official NWS reporting station. I think the St. Joseph News-Press reporting has us at about 16.4 inches year-to-date, still over 12 inches below normal.

Yikes

Larry
Guest
Larry

Gary,
We typically have a second severe weather season from around mid-September to mid-October. Is there any chance of that occurring this year? Lawrence is 12.51″ below normal YTD.
Thanks, Larry

Craig
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Craig
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

This one is better:
comment image

Richard
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Richard

What is the normal temp for KC for Sept 17- 20 ?

Richard
Guest
Richard

*normal highs

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kansas-city-mo/64106/month/329441?view=table

Highs in the upper 70’s, lows in the upper 50’s.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Looks like it says average highs mid-upper 80’s ….? right side

Richard
Guest
Richard

Oops ok, i needed to scroll down. Thanks Snow

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Radar addiction-a new and potentially serious disorder along the lines of gambling, gaming, opioid, tobacco and cell phone addiction. To avoid withdrawal I look at radars elsewhere, like the recent tropical storm on the east coast.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Yeah, I was doing that. But it’s still not the same as watching a blob on the radar that might be headed toward you. Much more excitement involved that way!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Now I’ve got something to watch. Not much, but something.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’m starting to go into Radar Deprivation. There hasn’t been anything to watch on the radar around here for several days, so I’m starting to go into withdrawal.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I don’t think you can say in the wrong spot once again anymore…its been in the right spot a lot lately.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

certainly for Lawrence that is true anyway

KS Jones
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KS Jones
Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

This month is only 2.5 weeks old. I’m talking the last couple of months. Try to keep up, know it’s difficult for you. We’ve been hit by a number of systems and multiple inches of rain…the pattern changed a while back…it was much much drier before that.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat
“Try to keep up, know it’s difficult for you.”
Really not necessary to belittle anyone on here. But for you I guess it is.
Jesus
Lawrence is still 12.51 ” below YTD

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Putting “alternative facts” aside, the Lawrence airport has had only 2 rain events that exceeded 1″ since July 1st (1.99″ on July 14th & 1.59″ on August 19th), so there is no need to book a ticket on Heat Miser’s arc just yet.

https://maps.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLWC/2018/7/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=18&monthend=9&yearend=2018&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

Richard
Guest
Richard

Heat doesn’t really know how much rain his part of town has gotten. Lawrence covers a huge area.
He just sees that everything is greener than it was. Which is possible.
I would say he does not have a rain gauge.
I don’t have one either.

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

Gary, I can’t remember if you were in Norman in 1986, but if so, you may remember the floods of 1986 in NE Oklahoma. That map says that the max rainfall in oklahoma from tropical cyclones was 18 inches, which is not correct. There were two tropical systems that came from the pacific, Opal and Payne, that brought tremendous amounts of moisture to the region. Both systems kept most of their water vapor content until they interacted with weak disturbances in NE Ok and SE Ks., where they exploded. Areas around Bartlesville received over 30 inches in 2 weeks. Osage… Read more »

Jim
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Jim

Except when it rained for like 5 straight days here recently. Let’s gloss over that.

Bill
Guest
Bill

Even when it did rain for five days straight, the totals were pitiful compared to the amounts west and north of us.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Wow. By the looks of the recent GFS models from the last few days, these three days of the 90s looks like the last of the summer heat. The cold front Thursday will usher in seasonable, cool air, and from then on, it never really shows us warming up too much into early oct. I hope this holds, and I’m ready for the new pattern

Bill
Guest
Bill

Although I’m sad pool season is over, I’m really excited to not sweat when I’m outside in a full suit. Also, selfishly, I’m excited to see the rain dwindling for the Plaza Art Fair.