Here We Go Again, One Last Time

/Here We Go Again, One Last Time

Here We Go Again, One Last Time

Good morning bloggers,

While the east coast has yet another major rain event, after a lot of snow events this past winter, Kansas City is likely again in the “wrong spot” for the end of the week wet system. Just yesterday I argued that it would bring us some badly needed rain, since it has been dry this month in a few spots again (KCI Airport is sitting at 0.88″ in September).  And now, it appears the system is going to target areas farther south.  There is still a pretty decent chance of rain Thursday night as a front moves through, and then a heavy rain event will set up well south of KC on Friday into Saturday.  Take a look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS model ending Sunday morning:

gfs_apcpn_us_21

As it is easily seen, our region near KC is in a drier spot. There are 2″+ amounts over northern Nebraska and Iowa, and also over Oklahoma and Texas.  It is only Tuesday, so let’s see if that system forms near Baja, CA.

The Remnants of CAT 4 Hurricane Florence are moving off into the Atlantic Ocean today. This wet system weakened to a CAT 1 storm as it drifted along the North Carolina coast south into South Carolina. This system produced rainfall estimates in the over 30″ range in a few spots, and it is reminiscent of what happened with Harvey last year.  Let’s take a look. These graphics are from the Weather Underground Blog:

state-tc-precip-records

The North Carolina record was likely just broken with over 30″ in spots.

7

Last years Harvey was a bit different, yet also a stalling and slow moving system that set records.  The track of Harvey is also shown on this map.

harvey-est-rainfall

It will be another hot day in KC with high humidity.  It will be close to 90 degrees each day until the cold front moves through Thursday night.  Have a great day.

Gary

2018-09-19T08:06:06+00:00September 18th, 2018|General|35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. Lary Gezak September 18, 2018 at 7:38 am - Reply

    Wow. By the looks of the recent GFS models from the last few days, these three days of the 90s looks like the last of the summer heat. The cold front Thursday will usher in seasonable, cool air, and from then on, it never really shows us warming up too much into early oct. I hope this holds, and I’m ready for the new pattern

    • Bill September 18, 2018 at 8:34 am - Reply

      Although I’m sad pool season is over, I’m really excited to not sweat when I’m outside in a full suit. Also, selfishly, I’m excited to see the rain dwindling for the Plaza Art Fair.

  2. Jim September 18, 2018 at 8:33 am - Reply

    Except when it rained for like 5 straight days here recently. Let’s gloss over that.

    • Bill September 18, 2018 at 8:35 am - Reply

      Even when it did rain for five days straight, the totals were pitiful compared to the amounts west and north of us.

  3. Fred Souder September 18, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    Gary,
    I can’t remember if you were in Norman in 1986, but if so, you may remember the floods of 1986 in NE Oklahoma. That map says that the max rainfall in oklahoma from tropical cyclones was 18 inches, which is not correct. There were two tropical systems that came from the pacific, Opal and Payne, that brought tremendous amounts of moisture to the region. Both systems kept most of their water vapor content until they interacted with weak disturbances in NE Ok and SE Ks., where they exploded. Areas around Bartlesville received over 30 inches in 2 weeks. Osage county reported 17 inches in a three hour period during a night time training event. The Caney river, which reaches flood stage at 11 feet, was at 37 feet. Think about that. Two-story buildings in the flood plain were completely submerged, and the Caney river was over five miles wide in places. This is with the flood mitigation made possible by the Hula and Copan reservoires, or the river would have been even higher.
    It stands as one of the most anomalous rainfall events in recorded history, but it was a rural region so it never got a lot of pub. Billed as a “1000 year flood”, or a “5000 year flood”, but I find those claims laughable. Since I lived in Bartlesville from 1970 to 1990, there were two 50 year floods, a 100 year flood, a 500 year flood, and the big one in ’86.

  4. Heat Miser September 18, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    I don’t think you can say in the wrong spot once again anymore…its been in the right spot a lot lately.

  5. Snow Miser September 18, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    I’m starting to go into Radar Deprivation. There hasn’t been anything to watch on the radar around here for several days, so I’m starting to go into withdrawal.

  6. LYITC41 September 18, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    Radar addiction-a new and potentially serious disorder along the lines of gambling, gaming, opioid, tobacco and cell phone addiction. To avoid withdrawal I look at radars elsewhere, like the recent tropical storm on the east coast.

    • Snow Miser September 18, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

      Yeah, I was doing that. But it’s still not the same as watching a blob on the radar that might be headed toward you. Much more excitement involved that way!

      • Snow Miser September 18, 2018 at 2:26 pm - Reply

        Now I’ve got something to watch. Not much, but something.

  7. Richard September 18, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    What is the normal temp for KC for Sept 17- 20 ?

  8. Larry September 18, 2018 at 1:43 pm - Reply

    Gary,
    We typically have a second severe weather season from around mid-September to mid-October. Is there any chance of that occurring this year? Lawrence is 12.51″ below normal YTD.
    Thanks, Larry

    • Gary September 19, 2018 at 7:13 am - Reply

      Larry,

      We are already into this first week of the “second” season. For KC, there was very little of a first season. The new pattern is setting up in just two weeks from right about now. The energy in the flow is getting stronger, so any system will be capable of producing some risks.

      Gary

  9. Kurt September 18, 2018 at 2:29 pm - Reply

    96 here in St. Joseph now, heat index of 101. We are 12.92 inches ytd, normal is 28.47 and down 15.55 inches for the year. At least at the official NWS reporting station. I think the St. Joseph News-Press reporting has us at about 16.4 inches year-to-date, still over 12 inches below normal.

    Yikes

  10. Josh September 18, 2018 at 2:31 pm - Reply

    Gary let me get your thoughts on Mahomes!!!

  11. Snow Miser September 18, 2018 at 3:17 pm - Reply

    We haven’t had any snow in October since 2002. I think we’re due.

    • Anonymous September 18, 2018 at 3:44 pm - Reply

      We had a “trace” in some spots on Halloween last year! Crazy…

      • Anonymous September 19, 2018 at 7:41 am - Reply

        Do you have 3 different accounts? Jesus

    • Lary September 18, 2018 at 3:45 pm - Reply

      We had a “trace” in some spots on Halloween last year! Crazy

    • Lary Gezak September 18, 2018 at 3:46 pm - Reply

      We had a “trace” in some spots last year on Halloween! Crazy

      • Snow Miser September 18, 2018 at 3:57 pm - Reply

        I remember it was cold last Halloween but we didn’t get any snow where I am.

        I’d like a trace of snow on Halloween, and then maybe an inch or half-inch on Thanksgiving. Just for the heck of it.

        Last year we had snow on the ground on Christmas from the previous day. Then we had a white Easter. So to round it off I want a white Halloween and Thanksgiving.

        I suppose it would be too much to ask for a white Forth of July.

  12. Anonymous September 18, 2018 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    It’s the same but different. Pay no attention to the 3+ inches we got. Think more like O.J.’s lawyer: If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit!

  13. Anonymous September 18, 2018 at 7:19 pm - Reply

    Nah, get a 15 minute hail storm on the morning of the 4th and bingo! “White” 4th :p

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