A Tropical System In The Pacific To Monitor

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Good morning bloggers,

The National Hurricane Center has placed a 70% chance of tropical storm development near Baja California in the next five days.  This is a system that we will be paying close attention to as well, as the pattern becomes favorable for bringing moisture from this systems and spreading it our way this weekend.  The big Plaza Art Fair is this weekend, so this is something that has my attention.  Here is the 5-day prediction for formation from the NHC:

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.24.53 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.20.19 AM

This next map above shows what may be a tropical storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of California.  While this system develops and tracks northeast, Kansas City is going to have a rather warm week with a cold front still located far to the north on Wednesday night.    This next map, below, shows the prediction from the European Model valid Saturday morning. This model may or may not be over predicting the organization to this system coming in from the tropics.  The GFS model has another solution, and it is still a bit similar to this one in the production of rain.  The GFS may be a bit more realistic with less surface development and it would have us in the colder air.  This will sort itself out in the next few days.

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.20.56 AM

Now, look closely. Do you see the purple line in Canada on these forecast maps?  The purple line shows the 540 thickness line, which is the 50/50 snow line, and there will be significant snow in Canada. Last winter, that 540 thickness line was rarely ever discussed because we had very few chances for significant snowfalls, and when we did have chances, this line was not a major factor.  Let’s hope we have to discuss this 540 line in the next few months.  Okay, I got on a tangent, let’s get back to this map below.  This forecast map from the Euro model shows heavy rainfall on Saturday. Again, this is the weekend of the Plaza Art Fair, and it appears we have a weather forecast problem.

Screen Shot 2018-09-17 at 7.21.33 AM

Fall begins at 8:54 PM Saturday night. This is when the sun sets at the North Pole, and as discussed in the peer reviewed paper on the LRC this is when the pattern may truly begin developing.  We are still in the old pattern now, the 2017-2018 LRC continues for just two to three more weeks.  Let’s see how this all sets up.

And, HOW ABOUT PATRICK MAHOMES for the Kansas City Chiefs?  He set the record for the most touchdowns by any quarterback in NFL history in the first two NFL games of a season with TEN TDs.  Wow!  He had to be almost perfect yesterday, or the Chiefs would have lost. Hopefully the defense gets a bit better, as I am convinced the offense will be GREAT.  Speaking of great, have a GREAT day!  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Dan MBubbaRichardStl78(winon,mn) Recent comment authors
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Anonymous
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Anonymous

How’s the weather look for Columbia on Sat?

Dan M
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Dan M

Gary – how about the forecast for Friday night for the Billy Joel concert at Kauffman Stadium? Thanks.

Bubba
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Bubba

What is your forecast for this weekend? I am supposed to go camping near KC. Will it be soggy?

The only thing you have forecast so far was a map, but didn’t provide any details.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

As a non chiefs fan I will say that offense has sure been impressive! However, if u want to make a long run u better do something about the defense! Go vikes!

Richard
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Richard

Those Vikes are hot
No losses yet. They came so close last season.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

How about the CHIEFS!

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Hey Richard!👋
Speaking of quarterbacks, that Bama QB Tua T. , oh man, lookout!! Lol

Roll Tide!!

Richard
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Richard

Lol hey Nobeach !
👋🏻

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Keep in mind that purple line was too far south in the last LRC to give us good snows. We had BITTER cold air for the first 1/2 of Winter – esp around Jan 1st. Remember our coldest New Years Eve like ever? -11F I believe it was. We had a stretch of 15 days from Dec. 23rd to Jan 6th below freezing. We had numerous snow events but never alot of snow – remember we had like 10 or 15 snowfalls with a average snowfall of 0.7″ per event if I recall, max 2.1″ at KCI. To say the… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Hey f00d 👋🏻
Makes sense. I think.
But farce ? Strong word

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Don’t forget we had that quasi permanent ridge in place jacking the storms up. I hope that thing has died and don’t to weather heaven and never resurrected.

Richard
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Richard

The blog has been eerily quiet for days now. Everybody leave ?
And Gary.
Roll call 😄

Terry
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Terry

Gary or someone you was talking about the purple line 50/50;snow line in maps ? I’m a little Confused what dose this have to do with us in the winter time ?

Richard
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Richard

Hi Terry
I was going to ask the same thing. It confuses me because we are still in the old LRC. So is Canada, right ?
So, a purple line up there now might jot be there with the new LRC.
Anyone have thoughts about it ?

Richard
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Richard

might *not* be there
fat finger typos !

Tery
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Tery

Gary or someone you was talking the purple line 50/50 snow line in Map ? I’m a little confused what does this got to do with us ?

Craig
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Craig

One comment to PH…He had more TDs yesterday than incompletions. That’s a pretty rare feat!

Michael
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Michael

I was a little suspect of Mahomes before the season, and hearing about how bad camp was going for him. However, I think he is the “Real Deal”! Best QB since Trent Green, and might even be better than Trent. Time will tell but so far, so good! GO CHIEFS!!!!!
Michael

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Speaking of snow, while it’s to be taken with the obligatory grain of salt, check out what the FV3 is showing for early October:
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