Florence Update and Our Next Chance of Rain

/Florence Update and Our Next Chance of Rain

Florence Update and Our Next Chance of Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

Florence made landfall Friday morning around 7 AM near Wilmington, NC as a category 1. As we have been saying, wind has been an issue, but the rain is going to be a huge problem.

These are the wind observations from 8 AM Saturday. On land the wind was 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Look at the 40-50 mph wind gusts offshore on the buoys. The wind is always higher on the water as the surface has less friction. Now, the sea-land difference is less now as Florence is much weaker.

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This is a very colorful map and it represents radar estimated rainfall totals  since Wednesday morning. How much rain do these colors represent?  See below.

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The highest totals we can find, so far, are between Swansboro,NC and northwest of Maysville, NC. They have seen a staggering 2 feet of rain! They are easily on their way to 30″-40″ of rain.

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Wilmington, NC has seen around 11″-12″ of rain as of 8 AM Saturday. Their rainfall total could easily reach 20″-25″. Raleigh, NC is on the edge of the heaviest rain, but they could easily end up with 5″ to 10″ of rain.

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Where does Florence go from here?

SATURDAY MORNING: Florence is about 100 miles southwest of Wilmington, NC. It is moving west at 2 mph. Keep in mind, on average, we walk at 3-4 mph. So, the slow movement is going to cause the catastrophic flooding. It looks like southeast North Carolina will be the hardest hit as the persistent heavy rain bands are northeast of the center. That heavy rain band is right over the locations that have seen 2 feet of rain!

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Florence is still wreaking havoc on the Carolinas. We are dry, very warm and humid with highs 85°-90°.  Also, the Chiefs play in Pittsburgh on Sunday and Florence will affect that area, but most likely on Monday.

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SUNDAY NOON: Florence will be well south of Pittsburgh, so the Chiefs will not have to deal with the storm. Florence will affect western Pennsylvania Monday, but after the Chiefs fly back home on a victory flight. We will be in for another very warm and humid day. There is a 5% chance for an isolated T-Storm.

The Ohio and eastern Tennessee Valley’s and New England will see .25″ to 2″ of rain from Florence as it will be moving faster and be much weaker.

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All of a sudden it has been a week since we have seen rain. When is our next chance?

MONDAY: A few T-Storms may pop up during the afternoon, but most will stay dry with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. We are watching a cold front to the north.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The cold front will head to around I-80, then stall and lift back north as a warm front. So, we will stay very warm and humid with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. Each day there will be a slight chance of an isolated T-Storm. The organized T-Storms will be across Nebraska and Iowa.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A new cold front will approach from the west and this will be our next decent chance of organized T-Storms. So, if you are seeding and/or fertilizing your yard you will have to drag out the sprinkler as we are a week away from any meaningful rain.

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

2018-09-16T08:43:03+00:00September 15th, 2018|General|12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Richard September 15, 2018 at 10:12 am - Reply

    Jeff
    Thanks for the blog and our local forecast !
    Question…
    Florence is a SLOW mover. What will cause it to suddenly move faster, to reach PA by Monday ?

    • Three7s September 15, 2018 at 6:39 pm - Reply

      The jet stream will dip a bit and pick up Florence and move it out. At the moment, the jet stream is up way north in Canada, so there’s no steering current to move Florence, so it’s just sitting there until then really.

      • Richard September 15, 2018 at 8:25 pm - Reply

        Three7s
        Got it. Thanks
        Will be interesting to see if Flo does move north that fast.

  2. Matt September 15, 2018 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    Anyone in need of a good laugh do a internet search for “weather channel busted”.

    • Richard September 15, 2018 at 3:20 pm - Reply

      Yeah, its all over the place.
      Snow Miser posted link to the vid on yesterdays blog.
      TWC defended it by saying Seidel was having trouble keeping his footing due to standing on grass vs concrete.

      • Heat Miser September 15, 2018 at 5:17 pm - Reply

        lol…yeah, with concrete a couple of feet away. Busted.

        • Bluetooth September 15, 2018 at 7:26 pm - Reply

          Yep, totally fake….

  3. Mike September 15, 2018 at 4:35 pm - Reply

    No comparison between Hurricane Florence and Super Typhoon Mangkhut.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/world/asia/ompong-typhoon-philippines-mangkhut.html

    • Heat Miser September 15, 2018 at 5:18 pm - Reply

      Florence hit land as a very weak hurricane…its all about the flooding since it’s hardly moving.

  4. Richard September 15, 2018 at 8:23 pm - Reply

    Lezak just posted on facebook of himself, Andy and Sunny.
    Says it will be the last pic in front of their OP house. They are moving to the Plaza this week.
    Sunrises/sunsets won’t be the same. Like seeing pics of Sunny posing on that rock out in back.

  5. Snow Miser September 15, 2018 at 10:09 pm - Reply

    Some of the rainfall totals in the hard hit areas of NC are nothing short of unbelievable.

    Caswell Beach: 13.92 inches
    Watha: 11.76 inches
    Jacksonville: 12.86 inches
    Turkey: 11.06 inches

    And that’s just today. In addition to whatever they had yesterday.

  6. Rockdoc September 16, 2018 at 1:17 am - Reply

    Don’t worry, Trump will save all of the people and infrastructure in NC/SC. Only he can save them, just like in PR. The only difference is that Puerto Ricans are not white and they did not vote for Trump. He will claim a win, how about those rolls of paper towels, yet the people who perished didn’t win nor received a roll of paper towels.

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