Where Will Powerful Hurricane Florence Track?

/Where Will Powerful Hurricane Florence Track?

Where Will Powerful Hurricane Florence Track?

Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane Florence is still a CAT 4 hurricane this morning.  It will be moving over very warm waters and as it approaches the coast on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night it may slow down a bit. The steering currents weaken considerably by Thursday. The momentum of the west-norwest movement will likely still take this system and blast the Carolina coast. The track shifted a bit south on the last model runs. Let’s look at these first two pictures that show last night at 10 PM and this morning:

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Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 7.50.13 AM

As shown above, there are three tropical storms in the Atlantic, and there is another one approaching Hawaii.  There is also a disturbed area near the Yucatan Peninsula.  We are at the peak of hurricane season, and this year it is living up to its reputation. It is ridiculously active right now.  The track of each of these systems is challenging.  The exact track is rather important as the impacts will be significant.  Look at all of the tracks from ensemble runs of the computer models:

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Most of the models slow down the system and try to loop it around. This hurricane is going to have some fascinating twists that will have high impacts on effects on the ground.  I will be doing a Facebook Live tonight around 8 PM.  Join in if you would like.

Florence

Olivia

While Maui is in the path of a weakening tropical storm Olivia, North and South Carolina are in mandatory evacuation orders from Major Hurricane Florence.  Let’s see how the models trend today.

In Kansas City, there is no chance of rain for quite some time. The LRC has three weeks left, and then we will welcome a brand new pattern. I am so ready.  Have a great day.  You can join in the conversation on the Weather2020.com blog.

Gary

2018-09-12T17:11:25+00:00September 11th, 2018|General|27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. Richard September 11, 2018 at 9:49 am - Reply

    ” The GFS model is likely to be replaced to start 2019 by a model called the FV3…which has been more consistent and seemingly more realistic with it’s portrayal of intensity etc with this storm. One meteorologist took a deeper dive into WHY the GFS model may be performing poorly with it’s forecast. It all comes down to microphysics. “

    • Snow Miser September 11, 2018 at 10:15 am - Reply
      • Richard September 11, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

        Thanks Snow !

      • Snow Miser September 11, 2018 at 7:15 pm - Reply

        The latest version of that has it hanging out just off – and right along – both the NC and SC cost for over 50 hours. That’s more than 2 days. If that comes true, imagine what a Category 3-4 hurricane lasting two days will do to the coast there?

        • Richard September 11, 2018 at 7:24 pm - Reply

          Catostrophic coastal erosion.
          That sucker is 400 miles across ! Will it still be that big if it indeed ends up stalling that long ?

  2. Heat Miser September 11, 2018 at 10:44 am - Reply

    COOL…Facebook Live!

  3. Craig September 11, 2018 at 11:24 am - Reply
  4. Heat Miser September 11, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

    looking at the most recent radar….colors are deepening around the eye A LOT!!!! I do believe it is intensifying.

  5. hoopsA1 September 11, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    so what is the LRC prediction for the storm thats headed into the gulf of mexico? will it turn into a hurricane? will it hit teaxs?

  6. Lary Gezak September 11, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    We are so lucky to have local meteorologists who will go into great depth talking about major weather events happening elsewhere. The hurricane coverage by Gary and Joe L of Fox 4 have been unbelievable!

    • Richard September 11, 2018 at 7:20 pm - Reply

      Yes, we are lucky.
      As for blogs, JL has gone into greater depth. I think he has more time than Gary. And he is a statistics nerd. (In a good way)

  7. Richard September 11, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

    Gary on facebook live. “The models have varying solutions for Florence, but the models don’t know, because they are based on the weather pattern of today. But I have a good idea what is going to happen, because the pattern changes daily. The pattern on Thurs/Friday will be different than today”
    Ok, Gary, so, what IS going to happen with Florence, according o the LRC ? I was hoping you would tell us facebook viewers.

    • Mason - Basehor September 11, 2018 at 8:58 pm - Reply

      Gary already said the other day that the LRC forecast is 55% likely that Florence curves back out to sea rather than making landfall.

      If you believe the LRC, then maybe all these horrific forecasts indicating doom and gloom are just hype?

      • Richard September 11, 2018 at 9:20 pm - Reply

        This close to the event, and doing a facebook live, I thought he would tell his fb viewers. Maybe not everyone on there reads the blog.
        And yesterday/today he has not told us on the blog what he thinks. Unless I missed something ?
        I hope it goes back out to sea !

      • Mike September 11, 2018 at 10:45 pm - Reply

        LRC forecast is 55%? We can forecast it almost the same chance by flipping the coin.

        • Blue Flash September 12, 2018 at 11:42 am - Reply

          But according to the models, such a scenario is probably less than 10% likely, a significant difference from 55%. If it did curve back to sea, that would be another significant accomplishment for the LRC.

  8. KS Jones September 11, 2018 at 10:11 pm - Reply

    A photo of Florence from outerspace
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmvHy-hXgAEetlR.jpg

    • Richard September 12, 2018 at 8:44 am - Reply

      Snow
      I got a popup that says
      This is page and its data are currently undergoing active development. This interface is currently meant to be use on a DESKTOP PC ONLY, with a preferred resolution of 1920×1080 or greater. A mobile friendly version will be developed at a later time.

      • Snow Miser September 12, 2018 at 8:50 am - Reply

        Well, that’s what you get for trying to view stuff on your phone. 😛

      • Adam September 12, 2018 at 9:47 am - Reply

        It’s not mobile friendly. Comments are easier to read when there’s a long chain of replies in landscape on a phone.

        • Adam September 12, 2018 at 9:52 am - Reply

          Lol, I meant weather 2020 then I clicked the above link.

  9. Richard September 12, 2018 at 8:46 am - Reply

    In recent days the blog writeup comes later and is shorter.
    Gary is a busy man.

  10. Rockdoc September 12, 2018 at 12:32 pm - Reply

    Excellent writeup on the effects of the steering winds and track of the storm. Still uncertainties beyond Friday into Saturday.

    https://blog.weather.us/major-hurricane-florence-set-to-arrive-in-north-carolina-tomorrow-longer-term-track-remains-uncertain/

    National Hurricane Center not willing to call track beyond Friday in terms of where the track goes. They’re pretty sure it will slow down and spin dumping massive amounts of rain, wind with huge storm surge on top of several high tides.

    They’re waiting for new data later this afternoon. Maybe there will be more consensus with the ensembles.

    I think models are having issues resolving the high pressure area over the midwest and timing/strength of when it (steering currents) starts to interact with the hurricane.

  11. Richard September 12, 2018 at 4:14 pm - Reply

    Hmm….Gary being conspicuously quiet.

    • Richard September 12, 2018 at 4:41 pm - Reply

      Because he is gone. As in not working tonight on air.

  12. Rockdoc September 12, 2018 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    Got a response on my tweet earlier today and Gary said the hurricane would not stall longer than 6-8 hours, which is contrary to current model guidance and NHC. Me, I think it sits and spins for 24 to 36 hours before moving down SC coast and then turning inland. Four to five day event possible.

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