The Same Pattern Has Four Weeks Left

/The Same Pattern Has Four Weeks Left

The Same Pattern Has Four Weeks Left

Good morning bloggers,

6

A steadily growing area of rain is drifting northeast across Kansas.  It will be a wet and rainy day in KC with a few spots receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain.  The heaviest rain early this morning was located over southern Kansas with a disturbance spinning around.  The same pattern continues to cycle, and we can go all the way back to the beginning of this pattern in cycle 1. Look at the satellite picture from that day:

image2

And, look at our forecast from this October 10th day:

image1

These pictures were taken from what I wrote 342 days ago, or exactly on cycle from the 47-48 day cycle, and remember, Hurricane Nate had just come inland a few days earlier in almost the exact spot the Tropical Storm Gordon tracked.

A new and unique pattern will be setting up in a few weeks, and for now, it is still the same, just the September version.  The rain was increasing as I was writing this. Here is the KC timeline:

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy with rain likely 1″ is also likely with local amounts up to 2 inches possible.  Temperatures will be dropping to 65°.
  • Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle or rain likely.  Low:  59°
  • Saturday: Cloudy and cool with some drizzle or very light rain. High:  63°

This forecast looks rather similar to the cycle 1 version of the pattern. Pretty fascinating, right?  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-09-08T08:23:08+00:00September 7th, 2018|General|37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Snow Miser September 7, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    There’s only 109 days until Christmas.

    • Johnny September 7, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

      Stop

      • Snow Miser September 7, 2018 at 9:25 am - Reply

        You’d better start your Christmas shopping now before it’s too late.

        • Heat Miser September 7, 2018 at 8:13 pm - Reply

          lol

    • Bill September 7, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

      OMG it is still summmmmmer! Plus I still have 7 weeks to find my adult Halloween costume!

  2. Three7 September 7, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    I’m assuming the rain will get heavier as the day goes along?

  3. Mr. Pete September 7, 2018 at 8:55 am - Reply

    The remnants of Gordo aren’t even coming close to KC at all.

    • NoBeachHere September 7, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

      It does not need to be an influence

  4. Michael September 7, 2018 at 9:02 am - Reply

    SO I have recorded 4.61 inches of rain in Maryville since last Friday! The lawns are green, we are out of the drought on the latest Drought Monitor from NOAA. I was mowing at work yesterday and making one heck of a mess! Need a little sunshine and dry weather. Have a great weekend Bloggers!
    Michael

  5. Nick September 7, 2018 at 9:24 am - Reply

    At KCI getting ready to go to Toronto, looks like a winter day with low stratus and light rain.

  6. Craig September 7, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

    GFS now showing Cat3 hurricane over the Delmarva and heading into Washington DC next Friday.
    Will be very interesting to watch the model trends!
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

    • Heat Miser September 7, 2018 at 8:15 pm - Reply

      Is it realistic for a CAT 3 to hit that far north? If so, evacuate Trump from D.C. and I’m good with it.

  7. Michael Garner September 7, 2018 at 9:51 am - Reply

    Gary you mentioned on the radio that we may be back in the 90’s late next week. Will it be like near 90 or mid 90’s? Always love the last push of summer in September but thankful that many times that kind of heat is short lived compared to July typically!

  8. Heat Miser September 7, 2018 at 10:32 am - Reply

    I don’t know about that, but in Lawrence our pattern changed from dry to wet weeks ago.

  9. Michael September 7, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    Is it really supposed to be 42 tonight? That seems cold for this time of year?

  10. Michael September 7, 2018 at 10:52 am - Reply

    Ooops… Ignore me.

    • Gary September 7, 2018 at 2:19 pm - Reply

      Michael, LOL after I posted the past prediction, I knew it may look like this forecast. That’s one of the beauty’s of the LRC.

      Gary

  11. Bill in Lawrence September 7, 2018 at 11:46 am - Reply

    Gary:
    Happy Friday to you sir!!!

    Looking at the current radar, it appears the heavier rain will miss Lawrence to the south and east; looks like mainly drizzle and light rain for this area….maybe we pick up .30 of drips and drizzle from this event but that may be a stretch. I picked up .9 on Wednesday as well.

    I am extremely happy that these waves have produced moisture in cycles 7 and 8 as compared to 5 and 6. I now cannot keep up with the mowing (I am mowing our neighbors as well) and the beans are doing great!!! That said, it is interesting to me that we have had 7 rain events in Lawrence since August 10th and not one of them produced over an inch..7 rain events totaling 3 inches. It is not easy to have 7 rain events in this area under this climate regime in August/early September and not have one go over an inch. So while the grass, flowerbeds, and trees have mostly recovered the lakes, creeks and ponds are still in very bad shape. Washington Creek has not run since May. We could get lucky with the new LRC and have a decent fall cyclone develop but since we are now progressing back into the dry part of the cycle the chances of having one in September are extremely low.

    Based upon the above, I will continue to respectfully argue that this is the exact same pattern and there is very little if any influence from the new pattern. Every one of these waves of energy has been present and right on schedule and they all came through in the dry cycles as well. Some did benefit as some places in KC proper picked up 4 inches..i.e. Atchison, Leavenworth, OP, KCI…all had some 2 plus inch rains over this summer. For here they were .05, .10 or just come clouds. Now they are 1 inch; .75; .50 etc….same underperforming spotty systems we have seen since October. 13 snow/ice/sleet events that added up to a massive 10 inches of frozen precip…..I am sitting here looking at this past month and it is dejavu….yes…the waves have produced measurable precip this past 30 days (and it is so so welcomed!!!) but all have been underperformance for most areas….some areas hit the jackpot as has been the case in all this LRC.

    I am not complaining….I am so happy to have this moisture…it is wonderful. I am just throwing out the thoughts/argument that this is the same pattern. I know many will disagree with me and that is great and how it should be!! 🙂

    Time to start watching Yellowknife and NW Territories to see how cold they get in the next 30-50 days.

    Have a great day everyone….back to school and mowing…

    Bill in Washignton Creek Valley in Lawrence

    • Roger September 7, 2018 at 12:09 pm - Reply

      I am greatful and happy that most areas are getting wetter. However, I really hope we can get a new pattern that won’t be as dry and boring as the last 3-4 Fall and Winter seasons around these neck of the woods. These have extended into Spring as well. I can only imagine the stress put on plants and vegetation year after year.

      • Roger September 7, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

        Sorry, I meant grateful.

  12. REAL HUMEDUDE September 7, 2018 at 11:51 am - Reply

    Still waiting for the rain shield to make it into NW Vernon Co. Still sitting in same places that got multiple Inches earlier this week, still refusing to come near my farm as has been case all week. It is not really moving east much at all, seems like repeat of what’s happened all week long

  13. NoBeachHere September 7, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

    Very interesting radar returns. Looks like an easterly flow running into and against a south westerly flow aloft. Either way, looks like a I-35 corridor rain and getting one of last spots in KS that was hard hit by the drought.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE September 7, 2018 at 1:39 pm - Reply

      It’s hitting the impenetrable force field around my farm, it refuses to move east. I thought I was going to get a flood out of this event a week ago, turns out I might not even get a measurable rain at this point.

  14. Anonymous September 7, 2018 at 12:25 pm - Reply

    Hmmm…..flash flood warnings for Miami and Linn counties in KS in an area that wasn’t in the FF watch. I’m right on the verge of the heaviest training and I am grateful we aren’t getting the deluge of rain, at least not yet.

  15. MikeL September 7, 2018 at 12:33 pm - Reply

    Looking at the radar, the heavy precip has set up just southeast of me (in SW Topeka) and reminds me of how the snow just misses me so often in the winter in the same way. So I’m glad to hear this is the same LRC and hope the coming new LRC gives better results.

  16. f00dl3 September 7, 2018 at 12:47 pm - Reply

    Funny your targeted advertisements! Headypattern.com is now available to purchase!

    Conspiracy???

  17. Snow Miser September 7, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    OMG look at the rainfall totals for this weather station:
    https://www.wunderground.com/weather/pws%3AKKSSPRIN10

    • Richard September 7, 2018 at 1:54 pm - Reply

      Flash flood warning Miami and Linn counties

  18. Mr. Pete September 7, 2018 at 2:20 pm - Reply

    This isn’t going to fill any ponds. At least in the metro…

    • ClassyCat September 7, 2018 at 2:34 pm - Reply

      I don’t know Pete. I’m in the metro and received as of right now 4.5 inches since Tuesday. That’s a pond filler to me.
      .3 Tuesday
      2.70 Wednesday
      .25 Thursday
      1.25 Friday…still raining

      • Mr. Pete September 7, 2018 at 4:37 pm - Reply

        Lucky!

  19. Kurt September 7, 2018 at 4:44 pm - Reply

    I am puzzled why St. Joseph has a reporting station for precipitation totals if it is wrong or what? YTD is only 12.9 inches on the NWS site. That can’t be right…now way St. Joseph is 14.9 inches down YTD that’s incredible, yet this is a hit or miss pattern, but wow.

  20. Hockeynut69 September 8, 2018 at 5:27 am - Reply

    The storm this week did appear to be the old LRC. We heard 1-3” most of the week and in my area received .5” at best over the last 72 hours. Not quite poof, but certainly underperformed compared to the forecasts of all the local forecasts.

Leave A Comment