Very Active Hurricane Season: Weather Models Threatening The East Coast & KC’s Chance Of Rain

/Very Active Hurricane Season: Weather Models Threatening The East Coast & KC’s Chance Of Rain

Very Active Hurricane Season: Weather Models Threatening The East Coast & KC’s Chance Of Rain

Good morning bloggers,

Hurricane season is now in hyperdrive as we look at the bigger picture. We have Hurricanes Norman, Olivia, Florence, and more development.   And, here we go again with the models.  If you remember, the National Hurricane Center had a 0% chance of development for Tropical Storm Gordon, while our prediction was at 84% chance of storm development from months earlier.  This time, we aren’t concerned with development as this has obviously occurred. This time we are highly concerned on the track as there are major implications depending on whether Hurricane Florence will blast the coast or curve offshore. The computer models have some scary solutions for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.  Take a look at this:

Screen Shot 2018-09-06 at 7.52.15 AM

These are three of the models with two of them, the Canadian model and the European model bombarding populated areas of the United States, while the American GFS model showing it curving off shore after a major threat.  Remember, we have a tremendous insight using the LRC.  Based on the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, known as the LRC, I would place a 55% chance of it curving out to sea and a 45% chance of one of those other solutions of it making landfall happening.  This is the part of the pattern that ends up producing a big eastern storm, and when that happens, it will deflect the hurricane back out to sea.  The question is exactly when will this happen. If it is a day or so faster it may hit the coast, and if it is a day slower it will get deflected out to sea.

The National Hurricane Center Track:

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By Tuesday of next week Hurricane Florence will likely be a major hurricane and still be way off shore. The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and again, the speed of this storm is critical.  Let’s keep monitoring this.  Even though I am leaning in the curving out to sea as it approaches the eastern seaboard, it is definitely something that must be monitored day by day.

Screen Shot 2018-09-06 at 8.17.54 AM

The dark green areas show the Flask Flood Watches which include the KC metro area, yet we are on the edge of this watch.  Look at the red around Hawaii.  Are you kidding me?  Hurricane Norman is very close to Hawaii and Hurricane Olivia must be monitored closely.  Hawaii is obviously in a hot spot this year for activity as there have now been FOUR hurricanes throwing impacts on the islands already this season.  Surf will be up. Norman will track north of the islands bringing very high surf to Hawaii.

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Back west over the middle part of the nation, what is left of Tropical Storm Gordon is going to combine with another storm system to create some flooding rains.  Over 2″ of rain did fall in a few spots yesterday, and in areas that really needed it.

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The models have trended towards a storm developing, combining what is left of Gordon with the next storm on schedule in the cycling pattern. Yes, we are still in the same pattern for just four more weeks and then we will welcome the new LRC in October.  For now, it is still more of the same, but slightly different.

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The models have trended into the heaviest rain to be located over the eastern half of Missouri. Let’s see how this forms.  Expect cloudy and cooler conditions in KC with periods of rain or drizzle the next three days.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Join in the conversation over on the Weather 2020 blog.

Gary

2018-09-08T08:22:54+00:00September 6th, 2018|General|43 Comments

43 Comments

  1. Snow Miser September 6, 2018 at 8:37 am - Reply
    • Bill September 6, 2018 at 9:13 am - Reply

      Ewwww let me enjoy my last two weeks of summer!!

    • Heat Miser September 6, 2018 at 12:00 pm - Reply

      ROFL

  2. Mr. Pete September 6, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

    Is it me or does Gordon look like its pretty much fizzled out?

    • Ben September 6, 2018 at 9:28 am - Reply

      I was thinking the same thing this morning. It’s not really moving or producing rain like it was a couple days ago

    • Gary September 6, 2018 at 10:01 am - Reply

      Gordon is just barely there, is it is just a disturbance in the overall LRC. There is another system now movingginnto the plains and it is combining with what is left of Gordon to produce a storm system that will then move off to our east.

  3. hoopsA1 September 6, 2018 at 9:30 am - Reply

    looks like we going to get less and less rain from this combo system. smh

  4. Roguewar September 6, 2018 at 9:53 am - Reply

    What kind of precipitation has to fall for a flask flood watch to be issued. I may need to set out several rain barrels.

    • Adam September 6, 2018 at 4:52 pm - Reply

      A flask flood sounds enjoyable, until the next morning.

  5. Real Humedude September 6, 2018 at 10:10 am - Reply

    I have been left with only a few hundredths since last weekend somehow!?!?! I saw precip maps showing my area with 3-5″ of rain, can’t even get a tenth! HRRR is not impressive today (maybe a few pop up showers), Gordon goes too far east and takes the precip with it, how in the world can I get missed out of this setup that has produced all these huge floods in the region?
    Oh yeah, I’ve been getting missed all year, its the LRC dummy!!

  6. Bill September 6, 2018 at 10:23 am - Reply

    Gary,

    I have a question about your percentages on whether Florence makes landfall or not. 55% no, 45% yes. What is this based off of? You say the LRC, but from what exactly? Would you mind posting maps and a more detailed analysis tomorrow/whenever you have time?

    Also a suggestion going into the 18-19 LRC, would you be able to post a chart that shows the different cycles and what they produced so its easier to follow for us bloggers(i.e., Column 1: Cycle 1: Row 1: Dates: Produced Noreaster Row 2: Produced second noreaster)? I think a lot of the naysayers (like me on occasion) get lost in the weeds. Thanks.

    • LYITC41 September 6, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

      After regaining my composure from hysterical laughter I now tell you this-ain’t happening!! It would make the misses easier to spot (to his advantage it would make the hits easier to spot too) but nice try.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE September 6, 2018 at 11:23 am - Reply

      Indeed, we need to label each system in each cycle so we can follow them. The very first system in the new LRC would be 1-A, the next storm , 2-A, 3-A and so on. The next cycle would be 1-B, 2-B and so on. That way we would follow them and instead of saying this storm is connected to some random date period nobody can Remember, we could say storm #6 is due in and we could all follow that Alot easier. A nomenclature system is all we need here, but it’s imperative to label and name them or they are just floating around and gets very complicated counting out days and whatnot for each cycle

      • Gary September 6, 2018 at 11:27 am - Reply

        This is what we did do for our customers. It’s an evolving solution.

  7. Craig September 6, 2018 at 10:39 am - Reply

    The 12z NAM makes for a rainy Friday but that’s about it.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=ref_frzn

  8. Richard September 6, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Gary
    So, the 90% chance of rain for tomorrow ( what you told the 810 guys yesterday) is now pretty much not going to happen here ?
    That’s a good thing. A lot of outdoor activities going on. Olathe has Old Settlers starting today – Sat.

    • Gary September 6, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

      100% chance

      • Heat Miser September 6, 2018 at 12:01 pm - Reply

        OHHH…a rare 100% rain prediction

  9. Ravi Kondapalli September 6, 2018 at 11:14 am - Reply

    Gary,

    Your comments on the LRC continue to puzzle. You mentioned that we are in the same pattern for 4 more weeks. We have had more rain this week than several others combined. I may be missing something but I cant understand how the same pattern that produces close to zero precip in one cycles ends up with more than 3 inches?

    • Gary September 6, 2018 at 11:26 am - Reply

      The pattern began wet in October over these same areas. We are in the October part of the cycling pattern now, and it’s almost October again. Hmmmm

      • Bill September 6, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

        Apparently my last comment did not post…

        Anyway, I don’t appreciate the sarcastic replies to people who are questioning the LRC. I mean we legitimately are trying to understand the LRC. But with no published paper and little explanations in the blog and replies (see previous comment), it is hard to wrap our heads around this conceptually. Until this happens, it will be difficult to buy into the LRC. I will say I do appreciate your 7-10 day forecasts as they are the most accurate in the metro.

        • Gary September 6, 2018 at 2:24 pm - Reply

          Bill, there is no sarcasm. I’m not sure why you took it that way. And do you know there is a published paper? Let’s move on and discuss the LRC if you would like. If any of you would like to email me, to keep the blog positive, then please do. Gary@Weather2020.com. I am an open book. This blog is meant for a positive experience. You just stated there was not a published paper, yet there is.

          Here is the link to the published peer reviewed paper on the LRC: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VtYWRvubT82p4LDd5vsEVr9oF4JWWCVb/view?userstoinvite=jst242@msstate.edu&ts=5b27c404

          Gary

        • ClassyCat September 6, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

          This is why electronic forms of communication are sometimes great for what you can do, but also SUCK because they take the human element out of communication when we aren’t face to face…..or even on a phone. You assumed there were sarcastic replies when you don’t know. How could you know? You can’t interpret sarcasm in written words unless it is painfully obvious. Sure, there are times when you can tell that a person is flat out being a jerk, or is kidding, but again, those are usually very obvious. I believe you interpreted something that wasn’t there. Perhaps you should have asked if there was sarcasm instead of saying you don’t appreciate the sarcasm (that isn’t there according to Gary). It seems you’ve made no attempt to know that there is a published paper out there as well. Certainly question away on the LRC. That’s how we all learn. I certainly don’t have it figured out and discussion is good. If everyone would just quit letting their emotions turn on a few written words when we can’t know for sure what was meant, this world sure would be a better place.

          • Bill September 6, 2018 at 2:59 pm - Reply

            Emailed you Gary. I appreciate it.

  10. ClassyCat September 6, 2018 at 12:08 pm - Reply

    143rd and Switzer in Overland Park….now at 3.25 inches of rain since Tuesday afternoon.

    .3 Tuesday
    2.7 Wednesday
    .25 Thursday

    What has everyone else got in this time frame? Can you share with location? Always fun to see how precipitation gets distributed, or not distributed in some cases over a relatively small area.

  11. Craig September 6, 2018 at 12:18 pm - Reply

    12z GFS coming into line bringing hurricane closer to the coast late next week.
    If it has to hit somewhere, Washington DC would be OK.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112106&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

    • Lisa Lu September 6, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

      Hahahaha!!!

  12. Roguewar September 6, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    95th & Antioch in Overland Park. Only had 1.39 inches since Tuesday.

    .33 Tuesday
    1.04 Wednesday
    .02 Thursday

    • REAL HUMEDUDE September 6, 2018 at 1:13 pm - Reply

      ONLY 1.39″? That woulda been one of biggest rains of the year down here

      how about .01 since last week! Somehow a flood warning for southern end of my county, they got 2-3″ but nada in NW corner of Vernon Co. This LRC sucks

  13. Richard September 6, 2018 at 2:12 pm - Reply

    Burt Reynolds R.I.P.

    • Gary September 6, 2018 at 2:36 pm - Reply

      Very sad news! Thanks for letting us know. I just googled it.

  14. Weatherby Tom September 6, 2018 at 2:28 pm - Reply

    1.12″ at Weatherby Lake since yesterday morning. Was hoping for more, maybe a little rain late tonight and tomorrow?? Sure am liking the cooler temps!

  15. Heat Miser September 6, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    RIP Burt Reynolds!!!! American icon.

  16. Richard September 6, 2018 at 4:28 pm - Reply

    Correct me if I am wrong.
    With the current LRC, it should in transition now. And we should be seeing subtle changes soon ?
    I have heard that rain, in the few weeks before fall, helps with colors. Should be vibrant if we continue to get rain.

    We are all ready for SNOW ! Hopefully a lot of it !

    • Gary September 6, 2018 at 4:45 pm - Reply

      The new LRC will be setting up by around October 5-7 and not before.

      Gary

      • Richard September 6, 2018 at 6:19 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary
        I thought you/2020 pegged the first day of the current LRC as Oct 10 last year ?

        Thats why I said we should be seeing subtle changes soon. The transition.
        The new one sets up by Oct 5-7, but doesn’t the old start transitioning/dying a couple of weeks before ?

      • Richard September 6, 2018 at 6:32 pm - Reply

        https://weather2020.com/2017/10/26/the-changing-pattern-three-weeks-into-this/

        “A unique weather pattern sets up every year between around October 1st and November 30th. The first day of the new pattern is around the end of the first week of October or around October 7th give or take a few days. We have identified a possible caused of this beginning to the cycle as the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, and then it is twilight for almost two weeks and this twilight ends around October 5th to 7th each year. This is about the same time that the LRC begins.”

  17. Adam September 6, 2018 at 4:58 pm - Reply

    Look at what I just ran across. Who was talking about this a few months back?
    http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-wind-solar-farms-precipitation-20180906-story.html

    • LYITC41 September 7, 2018 at 6:25 am - Reply

      This is saying the opposite of what some have claimed here-that wind farms inhibit precip formation, I still believe the effects of wind farms, if there are any, are local and negligible at best either way.

  18. Michael Garner September 6, 2018 at 5:47 pm - Reply

    I am always amazed at how another local channel is always so quick to get 90’s in forecast. I do check them to see if there is a chance they will be right but man they seem to always be 5-7 degrees to warm. Now and again they will be right but come on and give up the warm bias predictions. With that said I am liking the cloudy days but so ready for highs in the upper 50’s then bring on winter!

  19. f00dl3 September 7, 2018 at 6:42 am - Reply

    Looks like the other competing LRC-like pattern wasn’t so successful. They forgot to pay their domain name and now no longer exist.

    • Richard September 7, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

      What ?

  20. LYITC41 September 7, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Heady maybe.

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