Developing Hurricane Gordon Predicted 8-months Ago

/Developing Hurricane Gordon Predicted 8-months Ago

Developing Hurricane Gordon Predicted 8-months Ago

Good morning bloggers,

This may be argued to be the best weather prediction ever made, certainly the best long range weather prediction ever made.  Take a look at this comparison of developing Hurricane Gordon and the prediction made eight months ago in front of my peers at the big AMS conference in Austin last January:

Screen Shot 2018-09-04 at 7.33.58 AM

I shared this with NBC’s Al Roker over 3 months ago:

IMG_5023 (1)

IMG_5022

As many of you who know the LRC, once Alberto formed, we knew with high confidence that Gordon would form near the same spot, and it is almost perfect.  The LRC is down to this scale of precision.  Now, what is going to happen with this system?  Let’s take a look:

1

Look closely and you can clearly see Gordon intensifying on this RGEM model. This implies that it will be a strengthening hurricane in almost the exact spot as predicted by Weather2020 8 months ago applying the LRC.  Where will it go from here?

2

As you can see on this next map, a cold front, or more stationary front by this time frame on Thursday morning, will be bending around the tropical system with an outer band of showers and thunderstorms developing.  The location that end up in this outer band may see four inches of rain just from this system. And, the remnants of Gordon are tracking northwest into Arkansas from Louisiana.  Look at what may happen next:

3

Gordon will begin to be affected by the next LRC wave in the flow. This may begin the intensification of the remnants of Gordon as it tracks into Missouri and exits rapidly Friday night and Saturday.  How will this impact KC?  Will we be left dry once again, or will we break the ice and bring some badly needed rainfall.  As close as we have been to 5″ to 10″ rainfall amounts in the past two weeks, many spots are still ridiculously dry.  My pond has a huge beach around it out my back door.  Let’s see how this sets up.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

2018-09-05T23:36:46+00:00September 4th, 2018|General|66 Comments

66 Comments

  1. Anonymous September 4, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    Was going to offer congrats on the verified fcst, but he has already self congratulated so moving on-I said I would be impressed if this verified and it did and I am. Hope everyone in NOLA and Mobile make it through this alright. Someone yesterday mentioned a concern for rapid intensification like Katrina did so hope that does not happen. Also yesterday someone else was poo pooing the power of a strong TS or Cat 1, saying not a big deal. Obviously he’s never been through a tropical storm if he’s saying crap like that. I was in a Cat 1 typhoon in Japan and it was amazing what that storm did to the area I was in. (Yokosuka)

  2. Mason - Basehor September 4, 2018 at 9:11 am - Reply

    The whole premise of your forecast is that the weather cycles.

    Where was this system 47 days ago, in mid-July?!?

    • Three7s September 4, 2018 at 9:17 am - Reply

      Conditions aren’t as favorable for tropical development at that time of year. Fact is he made this prediction for early September and it happened. Period, end of story.

  3. Steve September 4, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

    Gary, With the morphing of this LRC will this in any way affect the new forming LRC? Thanks.

    • Gary September 4, 2018 at 10:16 am - Reply

      No, this will not have any impact at all on the developing pattern. The pattern develops strongly in around three to four weeks. Right now, it is still the current LRC. This storm will have an impact on the current set up this week, however.

  4. Michael September 4, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

    I recorded a whooping 3.69″ since Friday up here in Maryville, MO. I am going to mow today, as it might be the only chance this week! Things are definitely green up around here! #DroughtBusted!
    Michael

  5. Snow Miser September 4, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

    Looks like this thing popped up pretty quickly so I’ll rescind my criticism from a few days ago. That said, it’s a little farther west and probably a couple days later than Gary expected, so I’ll give it a B.

    Anyway, am I the only one who’s noticed the same corridor in KS seems to be getting all the rain the past few days?

    • KS Jones September 4, 2018 at 11:18 am - Reply

      No, you’re not the only one who has noticed. This is the third consecutive day of intermittent rain here. Have gotten only 0.3″ so far today, but it all adds up, and due to flooding on the Blue, the road 1/2 mile north of here is forecast to be under 1.5′ of water by 8 AM tomorrow. The 0.3″ we’ve gotten so far today brings our total since Sunday to 5.41″ and the forecast says we’ll snag another 1.5″ from now through Friday.
      An area 12 miles northwest of here (Alcove Spring) recorded 11″ Sunday, and that’s even more than the Donner party experienced there in 1846 (ha).
      Manhattan (25 miles directly south of here) got 10″ of rain Sunday. You might have seen some pictures of cars under water there.

  6. Bill in Lawrence September 4, 2018 at 9:56 am - Reply

    Gary:

    Happy Tuesday to you sir!!

    I have not been able to participate much lately and this will continue for quite some time (I’m sure many will not mind…no Gibbonesque Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire type posts to muddle through!! LOL)

    However, I had to briefly say major kudos and congrats on the Gordon forecast!!!! For me, it is not about the LRC as much as it is about how you and the team have so honed your skills using the LRC and have began to see all the nuances present. You have worked so hard and with such dedication that it is really fun to see all the work pay off!!! Of course there is still so much work to be done, but I really hope you can take a moment and reflect on all the work that has paid off and enjoy this moment.

    On a bit different topic….I would respectfully argue that this weekend shows that we are still predominantly in the same pattern….yes the front meandered 75 miles further south than in May (hence Manhattan’s rain) but it still stayed well north and west of the area like in May.

    Have a great day everyone…..Great Slave Lake is now seeing some lows in the upper 20’s (not Yellowknife but the lake area) the new LRC is not far away!!

    Bill in Washignton Creek Valley in Lawrence

  7. Heat Miser September 4, 2018 at 10:37 am - Reply

    All I know is for Lawrence, the “pattern” has been much wetter as of late. Congrats on the Hurricane forecast Gary. Near Florida…check. Close to Labor Day…check. Intensity…check. You are a weather God Sir! :-O

  8. Bill September 4, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

    I will say, I’ll offer a half-congratulations. I wouldn’t be a lawyer if I wasn’t cynical. On my extra day off, I thought I’d go back through the blogs. You predicted something around July 16th in the same January article. Yet there was no blog/statement re: the miss there. I’m not saying you don’t deserve credit, but it is difficult for me to give you a high-five when you only point out your successes and not your shortcomings.

    Moreover, I thought the pattern was supposed to change next month, not the end of August/early September. We have gotten more rain in the last few weeks than the previous 2 months (?-fact check me on this). It was also a cool July, but no mention of how that fell into the LRC. Now we’re talking extreme flooding and possible catastrophic flooding if these storms hit the same “drought” areas.

    I honestly think that you need to provide more thorough explanations on this as to how these different patterns fit into the LRC. Not trying to troll by any means, I just get annoyed when I’m trying to buy into a non-peer reviewed theory, but the source does not offer much in the way of explanation or show similarities to previous cycles.

    • hoopsA1 September 4, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

      who is predicting Catastrophic flooding in the drought regions? i havent heard that report from any mets in the area

      • Bill September 4, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

        That is what the NWS posted this morning.

        “Either way, this
        scenario needs to be watched closely as it could lead to a major
        flooding event with the primer mid week over the area and then the
        remnants of a tropical system overhead this weekend.”

    • KS Jones September 4, 2018 at 11:37 am - Reply

      “It was also a cool July”
      Huh?
      https://weather2020.com/2018/07/13/it-finally-reached-100-degrees-at-kci-airport/
      It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport . . . Downtown KC soared to 103° and Lawrence, KS got up to 104°.

      • Bill September 4, 2018 at 11:53 am - Reply

        Well we had several sub 90s and sub 80 days between 7/1 and 8/1.

        • JoeK September 4, 2018 at 3:32 pm - Reply

          We finished the month of July slightly above average, with one day below 80 at 76 degrees.

  9. LYITC41 September 4, 2018 at 10:55 am - Reply

    Oh brother…..! And so it begins. Undeniably a nice accomplishment though. Looks like 15% won out this time.

  10. Fred Souder September 4, 2018 at 10:58 am - Reply

    Hey Gary,
    I thought that the tropical system Alberto formed from am extra-tropical system that worked its way under a ridge into the gulf from the west, and then developed tropical characteristics as it sat over warm water. When you made your prediction, I thought “no way will a system come in from the west that low latitude in September.” I was sure your forecast would be a bust. I was wrong. Gratz!
    I would like to know this though:
    Gordan came in as a tropical wave from the east with different characteristics altogether. Was your prediction based on conditions in the gulf being Upper Level high with low wind shear so that if a disturbance tracked in this time of year (regardless if it came from cape verde, Caribbean, or gulf) it would quickly intensify in the region that showed promise? In other words, were you using the LRC to predict mid and upper level conditions, and figured a low level disturbance would come through the region? Thanks

    • Fred Souder September 4, 2018 at 10:59 am - Reply

      That should have read “non-tropical system”, not “extra-tropical system”

    • Richard September 4, 2018 at 11:25 am - Reply

      Gary says Alberto, but I think it was Nate. Nate was Oct 7-8
      He mentioned Nate in the January blog
      I stand corrected if I am wrong.

      https://weather2020.com/2018/01/10/a-200-day-forecast-for-a-hurricane-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

      • Fred Souder September 4, 2018 at 1:59 pm - Reply

        Yes, it was Nate. It developed from the remnants of a low pressure system that got pushed south around a ridge out west and then got stranded in the gulf. Gordon is from a tropical wave coming from the opposite direction.

    • Gary September 4, 2018 at 2:45 pm - Reply

      Subtropical storm Alberto, likely became Tropical Storm Alberto, yet the NHC decided not to change the official title as it moved onshore. The prediction is based on a 17-year research project and study that concluded a high probability of a hurricane forming right where it is forming. The LRC does provide tremendous insight on where these systems will track, once they form. For example, if you look back to last years predictio of Harvey, made 55 days before, the stalling of the hurricane was predictable. As, it was left behind, and had to wait for the next LRC wave.

  11. Jordan September 4, 2018 at 11:09 am - Reply

    What happened to all the rain we were supposed to get this past weekend?

  12. Richard September 4, 2018 at 11:15 am - Reply

    Gary
    When did Alberto occur ?
    I thought Gordon was the part of the pattern that produced Nate (Oct 7-8)

    https://weather2020.com/2018/01/10/a-200-day-forecast-for-a-hurricane-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

    Oh, and congrats !! I never doubted it. Those bold predictions are really adding up.
    The Super Bowl in NJ, and the Masters were 2 big ones. But this one, by far, has more reaching implications.

  13. Weatherby Tom September 4, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

    Jordan, I was wondering the same thing, got a brief shower Saturday morning, other than than, bone dry. Maybe some decent rain in here by tomorrow morning??

    • Jordan September 4, 2018 at 3:32 pm - Reply

      I hope so, but it looks like the front we were supposed to get this weekend that is finally drifting toward the metro is going POOF in a hurry. Hopefully, there’s some redevelopment.

  14. Baseball Mike September 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm - Reply

    Good afternoon Gary

    Well our noon met just threw in the towel and committed to just isolated rain here in SE Shawnee County including Topeka/Berryton through the rest of the week. So sad that this LRC has been cruel to the small region here. It has amazed me the rain amounts to the west and NW whereas these amounts used to be common nature for here. So our drought continues. I know the new LRC is here soon but will it make a difference in the precipitation?

    • Gary September 4, 2018 at 2:35 pm - Reply

      Mike,

      This LRC is almost over. We have to just be patient for one more month, and then we will say goodbye to this “horrible pattern”. Now, the next few days will still be interesting.

      The Tropical Storm is close to hurricane strength. It may just barely do it. It is trending farther east to a spot almost exactly predicted landfall months ago.

      Gary

      • Chiefs September 4, 2018 at 2:37 pm - Reply

        Gary, does that mean it will track further east of KC as well when it gets up ere?

      • Baseball Mike September 4, 2018 at 2:54 pm - Reply

        Thanks Gary and good work using the LRC forecasting the disturbance in the gulf. Can’t wait for the new LRC.

        Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  15. Lary Gezak September 4, 2018 at 12:30 pm - Reply

    40s showing up in mid-Sept on the latest GFS

    • LYITC41 September 4, 2018 at 12:51 pm - Reply

      Not.

  16. Craig September 4, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply
  17. Tdogg September 4, 2018 at 12:55 pm - Reply

    It’s the same pattern, just different!

    • Bill September 4, 2018 at 1:14 pm - Reply

      Lmao. This summarizes my frustration with the LRC and how it is presented.

  18. Larry Arnold September 4, 2018 at 1:36 pm - Reply

    Gary, Congratulations on the prediction for Gordon! I’m afraid that those of us in Lawrence are going to missed again with the remnants of TS Gordon. If I am looking at the latest modeling data correctly, the trend is for Gordon to move into Missouri with rain developing on the east side to KCMO and points east. It looks like Eastern Kansas and Lawrence will miss out again on any tropical moisture. Larry

  19. deleted September 4, 2018 at 2:04 pm - Reply

    6 inches of rain..still coming down. sc nebr

    you the man GARY

  20. JoeK September 4, 2018 at 2:35 pm - Reply

    Without responding to any one person, I must say I find it comical, the number of people that obviously cannot stand the fact the LRC was right. The lack of objectivity should amaze me, but with the current societal climate, I can’t say that I am surprised. I guess the RESIST movement extends to that which we don’t understand. Bottom line, there is validity to the LRC and its ability to identify weather patterns. No amount of criticism nor trolling can change that.

    • Bill September 4, 2018 at 2:56 pm - Reply

      No one is saying that they can’t stand the LRC was right. There just has not been much, if any, explanation about the pattern. The way I look at it is that Gary made a prediction that a system would hit in July and September. If it hit in July, I would be more than excited because a) hurricanes are rare in July in the gulf and b) he would be able to explain that this is a pattern. I would appreciate that he explain why it didn’t happen in July, but just September.

      PS – Way to bring politics into a weather blog, Mr. Trump.

      • JoeK September 4, 2018 at 3:03 pm - Reply

        Bill,

        My statement was not political, if that is how you perceived it. You are either not an attorney, or not a very good one. I simply addressed how we are in a time of folks resisting, denying and refusing to be objective when it conflicts with their own views. And yes, plenty of folks are in fact expressing dissatisfaction that this system verified.

        • JoeK September 4, 2018 at 3:06 pm - Reply

          Bill,

          What system in July? The tropical system that hit in the same spot in May/June was accurately predicted by the LRC. There has been more than adequate explanation for those that care to take the time to perform open analysis, should be easy to do for an attorney?

          • Bill September 4, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

            If you go back to the same blog in January, it references a system to form in the gulf in July. That’s all I was talking about.

            Also, please stop with the personal attacks dude.

            • Gary September 4, 2018 at 6:12 pm - Reply

              Bill,

              When Alberto formed, this indicates a great chance of another named storm in a future cycle, so that would apply to July or September. If nothing formed in May, then I would expected it in July.

              Gary

              • Bill September 4, 2018 at 6:41 pm

                I think I understand what you’re getting at now.

                Thanks. 🙂

      • Gary September 4, 2018 at 3:53 pm - Reply

        Bill, the prediction was not for there to be a hurricane in both cycles. The prediction was for there to be a hurricane in at least one of the cycles with an 84% probability. Now, this is just 6 mph away from hurricane status. It may make it to that strength. We will see in the next 12 hours.

        And, good news bloggers. I like the trend and the interaction of the tropical system with our chance for rain. There are areas near Kansas City that are still left in this extreme drought situation, and it is one of the last locations to be left out of the recent rain “party” as it was anything but a party in Manhattan, KS this week. 2 to 4 inches of rain on most models would do it, and yet we have been through this before. The old LRC is still 90% in control, so we will see. five weeks to a new LRC.

        • Bill September 4, 2018 at 4:08 pm - Reply

          I guess I interpreted your January blog differently than you intended when you wrote it. My apologies.

  21. Heat Miser September 4, 2018 at 3:33 pm - Reply

    TRUMP

  22. Bobbie September 4, 2018 at 4:27 pm - Reply

    This has to be the new LRC. When have we have this set up previously?

    • Jordan September 4, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

      With the exception of the hurricane, I’d say this storm is behaving very much like other fronts this summer that have tried to reach the metro area. The models show us getting dumped on, over 1″ is predicted for the area, then the front arrives and falls apart. It happened again this afternoon (although the front took a couple of extra days to get here compared to what was forecasted).

  23. Nate September 4, 2018 at 5:52 pm - Reply

    So when is all of this Algae going to get washed out of my pond?

  24. Emaw September 4, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    Some decent soaking rains out of this front would be nice, I’m not counting on the tropical system I think it’s going to turn northeast too quick. Comments today by the way have been top notch, always enjoy the banter as long as it doesn’t get personal because that’s chicken sh**.
    Imo

  25. Stl78(winon,mn) September 4, 2018 at 9:21 pm - Reply

    Rare tornado warning for me here in Winona mn…been awhile since I’ve heard the sirens!

  26. REAL HUMEDUDE September 4, 2018 at 10:15 pm - Reply

    Looks look we will get into the rain train tomorrow in the metro and points south. Models are hinting at training, could be flash flooding as heavy as these downpours have been. Let’s break the drought, I saw a few ponds out by De Soto last week at 50% or less, a big rain won’t hurt a thing around here

    • Gary September 4, 2018 at 11:50 pm - Reply

      Yes it does! By the time I write the blog in the morning it may be about as an exciting of radar I have seen in a long time.

      Gary

      • Mr. Pete September 5, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

        Except it is not…

        =(

      • Craig September 5, 2018 at 8:10 am - Reply

        Maybe not so much…

  27. Hockeynut69 September 5, 2018 at 6:43 am - Reply

    So far the radar is unimpressive. Rain is in the same location as yesterday. West to northwest of the metro.

  28. Bill September 5, 2018 at 8:42 am - Reply

    The rain seems pretty impressive so far. These cells are extremely efficient due to the high PW index which is like 2.1 or something. It almost feels tropical!

  29. wxfreak September 5, 2018 at 10:45 am - Reply

    Gary thought you may want to see this
    https://youtu.be/ZHKKKNCOWFY?t=4970

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