A Tropical Storm Is Forming & It May Send Moisture To KC

/A Tropical Storm Is Forming & It May Send Moisture To KC

A Tropical Storm Is Forming & It May Send Moisture To KC

Good morning bloggers,

Happy Labor Day!  I will be working at KSHB-TV this evening and we will be tracking a developing tropical storm.  The national radar shows the developing tropical system just southeast of Miami, Fl. Also quite noticeable is a band of rain and thunderstorms extending across Kansas and Iowa and then east to near Chicago, IL.  This band of rain has been in a zone that has barely moved, and as a result a few spots have now received over 4″ of rain with another 4 to 8 inches of rain likely, which will lead to localized flooding. While all of this is going on, Kansas City continues to be in the shadow of the rain. This will be good news for Labor Day activities as the chance of rain will remain low today.

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.33.29 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.34.20 AM

Tracking The Developing Tropical Storm:

  • A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to New Orleans
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border west to Morgan City, LA

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.19.50 AM

Tropical Storm Gordon will be named within the next 24 hours or so.  Thunderstorms, convection, have developed over and near the center of this system. When thunderstorms form near the center, there is tremendous latent heat released and this heat is what will now begin to organize and spin up this system.  South Florida is the first target as you see above with the large area of rain, torrential rainfall in the brighter orange colors.  This system will move out over the Gulf of Mexico where the water is warmer than average.  The conditions will become favorable for strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours, so just as it approaches the coast it may form into a hurricane.

092142_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Later this week, the remnants of Gordon will approach KC from the southeast. Where will it track exactly? This developing track will have an influence on our weather farther north. It may end up west of the predicted track, so let’s monitor this closely, yet this European Model shows an increase in rainfall over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There are a few spots left that are still in drought conditions and this may be the week the finally wipes the drought out?

Screen Shot 2018-09-03 at 6.39.53 AM

For those of you paying close attention to our weather predictions, you will know this storm was predicted in January to develop now.  The LRC is applied (the peer reviewed technology proprietary to Weather2020), and this allows us to make these predictions, and also to “know” and predict the most likely path of these systems, winter storms, severe weather outbreaks, Arctic outbreaks, etc.  The National Hurricane Center is adjusting the path a bit east of yesterdays outlook and this is a more likely scenario as this will threaten the northern Gulf Coast states from new Orleans to Pensacola, FL.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A few morning clouds and staying dry in most areas.  High:  86°.  There is a 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm with southeast to south winds 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight, 20% chance, of a thunderstorm.  Low:  71°
  • Tuesday:  Periods of clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. The chance of rain is 30%.  High:  84°
  • Wednesday:  Thunderstorms likely with heavy rain.  A few spots may get 1 to 2 inches of rain.  High:  81°
  • Thursday:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  High:  74°

Have a great Labor Day, and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here and join in the conversation:

Gary

2018-09-05T08:23:51+00:00September 3rd, 2018|General|39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. Michael Casteel September 3, 2018 at 7:51 am - Reply

    I recorded 2.25″ at 7 this morning in Maryville with more on the way! We are finally going to beat this drought. Can’t wait to see what next drought monitor looks like on Thursday! However cutting grass this week will be a challenge! Have a great Labor Day Bloggers,
    Michael

  2. Baseball Mike September 3, 2018 at 8:19 am - Reply

    Good morning Gary

    Our Topeka meteorologists and NWS has had a horrible time with forecasts all this year. It was supposed to rain last week more than it did and the rain never happened here that was forecast over the past three days. Did the system slow down, stall? We never get explanations on the weather casts. They just rely on computer models. Thanks for any explanations.
    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • MikeL September 3, 2018 at 9:00 am - Reply

      Mike, your comment wasn’t being displayed when I posted, but I see you and me are thinking along the same lines. You pretty much said what I was thinking.

      • Baseball Mike September 3, 2018 at 9:26 am - Reply

        Yes Mike

        With the occasional exception of the WIBW radio met and I listen to KNZA and catch Bill Spencer who provides the best explanations of anyone. We just receive generalized weather coverage here.

        Michael/BerrytonTopeka

      • KS Jones September 3, 2018 at 9:27 am - Reply

        Topeka always has a problem with their estimated rainfall amounts that have occurred too, whereas Hastings and Omaha usually get it right.
        Topeka’s webpage shows we’ve gotten only 1″ of rain since Friday (east of the Blue River on the Pottawatomie-Marshall County line), but we’ve actually gotten 4.85″ since 8 PM yesterday.
        https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=twx&product=NTP&loop=no

    • Anonymous September 3, 2018 at 9:44 am - Reply

      I agree totally with your comment. The forecast from the NWS in Topeka for Lawrence this past week and Labor Day weekend has been awful. Forecast rain predictions of 90% down to 20% for today. I look at my own blends of models and follow this blog to get a more accurate picture of what might happen.

  3. MikeL September 3, 2018 at 8:26 am - Reply

    Over here in SW Topeka we have not received a drop of rain even though the NWS had a 50% chance of rain yesterday and an 80% chance last night. I followed the HRRR and radar trends yesterday and knew it wasn’t going to rain during those times. Rain can be just a few miles to the west and never make it here in this LRC. We have had some decent rain lately but the drought really hasn’t been broken here yet.

  4. Tim September 3, 2018 at 8:30 am - Reply

    Gary you know I’m a straight shooter. Your LRC tropical prediction verified although a couple days late. Your LRC was right and I was wrong. What is amazing is 3 days ago the NHC had 10% chance, almost zero models had even a closed low– but the LRC showed different. Now some of the current models are indicating this could be CAT 2. I am more concerned the chances of rapid intensification..

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/031227.shtml

    • JoeK September 3, 2018 at 10:29 am - Reply

      Tim,

      This is the reason I turned from skeptic to believer, being able to predict systems such as this is astonishing! As you stated, NHC gave this almost a zero chance and the models never sniffed it out with an consistency until now. regarding the few days off, not sure I agree with you on that, but understand why you see it that way. The ability to identify a potential tropical system down to a week and geographic location is going to have major implications within the weather community. Have a good Labor Day!

  5. DanT September 3, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Gary, congratulations on the prediction and verification of the tropical system. I have family near Manhattan Ks who were having a significant drought in the spring and summer. In 24-48 hours they have received close 7.75” of rain with flooding.

  6. Mr. Pete September 3, 2018 at 9:57 am - Reply

    Hi Gary – nice job on the prediction of that storm. Do I understand you correctly that the remnants are moving up and over KC?

    • Three7s September 3, 2018 at 12:12 pm - Reply

      I hope so. This could finish off the drought for the time being.

  7. JoeK September 3, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply

    Mason – Basehor

    Based on what you posted on August 31st, what are your thoughts now?

    • Tdogg September 3, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

      Ask SEDS

      • JoeK September 3, 2018 at 2:27 pm - Reply

        tdogg,

        That doesn’t make sense. I had some good dialogue with Seds yesterday. The system came together and is there. I asked Mason as he stated that there was zero chance of a hurricane on the 31st and now, looks to become a hurricane. Happy trolling K.B.

        • Richard September 3, 2018 at 4:47 pm - Reply

          Heat Miser said “no big deal” and zero chance

          Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
          First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S.. Nope, tropical storms are common on the coast and usual don’t do much damage at all. Flash flooding is the main culprit, but again, these aren’t that unusual down there…..

  8. Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

    Let it rain!!!!

  9. NoBeachHere September 3, 2018 at 1:40 pm - Reply

    I like these broad areas of low pressure that keep spinning up around the gulf coast and move west then nw inland. They have been there the previous 2 cycles. One is currently almost on top of Dallas.

  10. Nick September 3, 2018 at 1:51 pm - Reply

    Have a flight out of KCI at 11 am on Friday to Toronto (stopping at LaGuardia) I hope this thing doesn’t give me any issues.

    • MattinLeavenworth September 3, 2018 at 3:22 pm - Reply

      I don’t see why rain would cause delays if it even does rain Friday.

  11. JoeK September 3, 2018 at 4:29 pm - Reply

    NHC just upgraded to a hurricane warning. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/032038.shtml

    • Richard September 3, 2018 at 4:48 pm - Reply

      Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
      First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S.. Nope, tropical storms are common on the coast and usual don’t do much damage at all. Flash flooding is the main culprit, but again, these aren’t that unusual down there…..

      • Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

        Oh Richard….a strong tropical storm, a weak CAT 1…very little difference and no big deal. Stay away from low lying areas and large trees and its fine. You point was that New Orleans was doomed to suffer. My point is no, New Orleans will be just fine…its no big deal. LoL…nice try, but same argument.

        • Richard September 3, 2018 at 10:16 pm - Reply

          # 1. You said zero chance of it becoming a hurricane. You were wrong
          # 2. Stay away from low lying areas and trees. Have you ever been along the gulf coast ? It is all low lying areas. And trees ? They are everywhere.
          No more to say on this matter to you.
          You continue to act like a jerk
          Back off.

  12. Richard September 3, 2018 at 4:51 pm - Reply

    Heat Miser
    eat your words !

    Heat Miser September 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm
    “First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S”

    • Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 8:46 pm - Reply

      LoL…no words to eat…my point about your point remains exactly the same.

  13. j-ox September 3, 2018 at 4:55 pm - Reply

    Crow..it’s what for dinner at The Skeptics Trough.

  14. Three7s September 3, 2018 at 5:19 pm - Reply

    Yeah, a lot of people just assumed this hurricane wouldn’t happen, even LRC believers. Own up to it, guys.

    • Tim September 3, 2018 at 8:49 pm - Reply

      Yup..

  15. KS Jones September 3, 2018 at 5:22 pm - Reply

    Got another burst of rain at 4:30 PM, bringing our total since yesterday afternoon to 5.02″, which puts us well above our average for the whole month of September. Our average rainfall for January to the end of September is 27.79″. Our ytd total is now 26.76″, and the forecast says we could pick up another 2″ from now through Friday. 

  16. Stl78(winon,mn) September 3, 2018 at 6:38 pm - Reply

    Plz someone explain to me why tdog is allowed to continue and post!! It is absolutely rediculous. I have held out hope that he would bring something of substance to this blog but no it’s the same BS, attacking the same people.

  17. Richard September 3, 2018 at 6:55 pm - Reply

    I was a believer from the get-go when Gary made that bold prediction. Never doubted it.
    I don’t troll.
    But there are those who continue to troll and are given a pass. I ask why.
    Heat Miser has an elitist attitude and likes to belittle.
    Tdogg…well Tdogg just likes to troll and is a broken record. Yawn

    Gary has said no trolling. But turns a deaf ear/blind eye to those two.
    Gary comes out to defend his hypothesis when it is challenged.
    But does not seem to care as much about the integrity of the blog, of what actually goes on here between bloggers.
    I, and others, have asked him to step up. I am asking again.
    With winter and a new LRC coming we hopefully will have some great duscussions and dialogue.
    But not if we are attacked at every turn and being accused of making silly comments, or being told it is nonsense.

    Heat Miser needs to back off. So does Tdogg.

    Now, I pray for those in the path of the storm. I hope it is downgraded as fast as it was upgraded.
    And prayers for those folks in Manhattan who have been affected by the flash flood today.

    • Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 8:50 pm - Reply

      And…Richard just likes to be dramatic and whine and complain a lot whether its about Gary being off by two degrees on his temperature forecast, or forecasting doom for New Orleans due to a T.S. There really isnt much difference at all between a strong T.S. and a minimal CAT 1 hurricane, and New Orleans will be just fine. That was my only point about your point, and it remains the same point. LoL..nice try.

    • Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 8:54 pm - Reply

      ..and by the way Richard…challenging a comment you made isnt’ trolling, its challenging your comment. Try putting on your big boy pants and man up a bit. LoL And yes, you tend to way over dramatize things sometimes, which was my only point.

  18. Stl78(winon,mn) September 3, 2018 at 6:59 pm - Reply

    I see tdoggs comment was removed. Hopefully, he will b as well! Sitting at 70 degrees with rain falling once again here in MN. Another 2 to 4 expected tues/wed. Nice to have Windows open at least.

    • Richard September 3, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

      And we need more rain. Feast or famine. We are not at the famine stage anymore here in JoCo, but need more.
      This heat has been unrelenting since May 1. I saw 90 again tomorrow, and mid-upper 80’s into the weekend.
      Sultry as all get out too.
      70’s sounds real nice.

      • Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 8:52 pm - Reply

        It was actually much much drier in Lawrence today Humidity wise…thank goodness…tired of all the humidity of past days. Looks like lots of potential rain from the incoming T.S. that should hit the coast and ride right on up here.

  19. Bobbie September 3, 2018 at 7:56 pm - Reply

    How much rain are you expecting for Odessa?

  20. Heat Miser September 3, 2018 at 9:02 pm - Reply

    Now that I’m done dealing with Richards tantrum….I must say that Gary’s hurricane near Florida around Labor Day….WOW…not bad Gary!!!! Must give you props on that!

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