A Front, Tropical Moisture and Gordon?

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Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope your Labor day weekend is going well. We are tracking three main weather features the next 5-7 days that will have an impact on our weather. Those features are a front, tropical moisture and the chance of a named tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

First let’s talk about the front.

This has been the focus for very heavy rain and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa the last two days with amounts of 2″-7″. Eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri have been on the southern edge of these main rain areas. This will be the case today and for Labor day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around both days with the most coverage northwest of KC.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The front will sag south a bit, so the main thunderstorms will be a bit farther south into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These will have a chance to drift into the KC area before they fall apart.

2

LABOR DAY: The front will lift back north a bit, but we add in a flow of tropical moisture from the south. So, this means scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for all locations. We are also watching for the chance of a named system in the Caribbean Sea.

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TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will be the focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets intertwined with the front. Could Gordon form and track to between New Orleans and Fort Walton beach? It could, and whatever it becomes, the moisture will head north and may be a factor in our weather at the end of the week.

4

RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS: The location of the three features mentioned above will determine who sees the most rainfall. Right now it looks like northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and Iowa will have the best chance to see 4″-6″ of rain or more.

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Locations to the southeast of KC may see under .25″-.50″ of rain. This is, needless to say, a tight gradient and makes for a tough forecast.

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This gradient could easily shift northwest or southeast by 50-100 miles. It is going to depend, mostly on the location of the front. If Gordon forms, it would not be a factor until around or after day 5.

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Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

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TdoggKS JonesPsychotic AardvarkGaryJoeK Recent comment authors
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Tdogg
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Tdogg

It’s the same pattern, but different this time!

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

The computer model Gary uses on air keeps showing my area in Leavenworth with 2 to 3 inches of rain in the next few days. If it keeps staying out west like it is I don’t see how we get that.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

I hope the storm system drifts farther east too. It has moved a bit east, but keeps training over much of the same area out this way. When I went to bed at midnight our rain gauge had 3.05″. I got up at 6 AM to see if it was still raining (can’t hear it in the house), and yep, it’s still raining. We now have 4.2″ in the gauge (25 miles north of Manhattan). Estimated rainfall south of Marysville since 6:30 PM yesterday shows they’ve gotten 10″ (according to Hastings radar) or 12″ (Omaha radar). The Big Blue River… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=LSR&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1 Storm Report ..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON… ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE…. ..REMARKS.. 1121 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N MARYSVILLE 39.85N 96.65W 09/02/2018 E5.66 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL SINCE 6:30 PM CDT.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The estimated rainfall between Marysville & Blue Rapids was 10″ at 11:45 PM. The storm stalled out in that area for a long time before it hit here, and we’ve gotten 2.7″, which is close to the Omaha radar estimate. At this time, it is still raining here as well as in Marysville.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=oax&product=NTP&loop=no

Richard
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Richard

Saw this interesting statement about the tropical system.

“Tropical moisture and rain from this system could cause, soon to be named, Tropical Storm Gordon to undergo a “ Brown Ocean” effect AFTER making projected landfall on Louisiana Coast and intensify.
Sometimes when it rains a lot on hot flat dirt and one of these goes over it they strengthen because the spirit of the hurricane gets confused and thinks it is over water. they’ve done some experiments. the spirit shows up in electrical dirt form.”

Brown Ocean. never heard that term before

Psychotic Aardvark
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Psychotic Aardvark

It seems like rain is forming all around us. Is it supposed to fill in at all?

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

By the way, those who despise me (esp. ClassyCat who can’t resist mouthing off), I have resurfaced only because Gary made such an incredible prediction back in January and needs to be held accountable if it’s wrong. It may turn out to be pretty close, though I can not for the life of me understand how. We’ll see what actually happens. What I still can’t understand is why the LRC did not predict the May storm, or why there was absolutely nothing in July. We are now only days from the climatological peak of hurricane season, so tropical activity was… Read more »

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

The moral of the story is, don’t make bold predictions unless you are prepared to face the heat if it’s wrong. Gary obviously has the stones to take the criticism or deflect it to his followers to answer, so good for him.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Nothing wrong with that. However, accusing Gary of posting under a pseudonym to enrich himself, and paying people to make favorable posts….well, you lost my respect there friend.

JoeK
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JoeK

The LRC DID predict the May system that hit the panhandle if that was in fact the storm you were referring to and for the record, my family took a trip to Pensacola and planned around that system using the LRC. If memory serves, Gary presented on that system at his conference. Either way, that was another system that floored my friends and family.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Outflow boundary headed down from the Northland. Maybe that will finally kick off some storms for the Metro?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It looks like Troy got drenched from the storm system that trained through his area yesterday afternoon & night. The NWS has flood warnings for the Republican & Big Blue rivers. Neither are currently at flood stage and only minor flooding is predicted, but . . . https://books.google.com/books?id=oXbxAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA239&lpg=PA239#v=onepage&q&f=true Significant flooding occurred in September and October 1973. This flood affected south-central, north-central, and east-central Kansas. The flood was a result of abundant precipitation that continued for several weeks. During this period, as much as 11 in. of rain fell in the Solomon, Smoky Hill, and Big Blue River Basins in the 4 days from September 25-28. Some… Read more »

Tim
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Tim

It’s looking like I just might need to eat my own words on Gordon lol…

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

What I am not able to understand is how seeing a cold core upper low in the eastern GOM that moved there from the mainland US in early January somehow predicts a warm core tropical system in the same area in September whose origins were in Africa. That is the crux of my issue with Gary’s prediction. How is that a later cycle of the same pattern? Here is the 500 mb pattern from Jan. 8, 2018:comment image
Here is the 500 mb pattern GFS forecast for Sept. 4: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2018090212&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt= I don’t see the resemblance.

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

JoeK, are you on Gary’s payroll? If not, you should be. Or are you actually Gary using a pseudonym so he can turn attack dog on those who detract his precious (literally, since he wants to enrich himself using it) hypothesis? Gary’s words are his words and he can’t take them back. If he is wrong he has to own it, not twist it around somehow to somehow show the LRC was right.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Professional scientist Seds showing his professionalism once again.

JoeK
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JoeK

Seds, No, I am not Gary. I actually use my real name. Not sure what your background is, but if you are a scientist, your presentation is unprofessional and as much as I hate to say it, juvenile. Scientist don’t attack a theory or person with a statement like “Or are you actually Gary using a pseudonym so he can turn attack dog on those who detract his precious (literally, since he wants to enrich himself using it) hypothesis?” If you disagree with the LRC great, but do it in an intelligent manner and debate it based off of facts… Read more »

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

Hey JoeK I posted two legitimate maps with a legitimate question about how the pattern on Jan. 8 resembles the pattern today in any way. Gary responded with a long-winded answer that was, to me, a dodge of my question though I appreciate its tone. I used to think there was something solid to the LRC, but I’ve seen too many situations where the LRC was flat wrong, like predicting a cold wave here in Feb. 2017 and it turned out to be very warm or predicting a late frost here in May 2018 when it was again very warm… Read more »

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

BTW, you never said whether you are on Gary’s payroll or not. An accidental omission, or intentional?

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

TROLL

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

🙂 You made a funny. haha. Can you write complete sentences?

JoeK
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JoeK

Seriously? I did respond in general. I am not Gary and am not on his payroll. I haven’t ever met Gary. As for what made me change from a skeptic into a believer in the LRC, I began using it myself and did so for 3 years. Although I did experience systems and fronts that I was unable to account for, I also used it with a high degree of success. I won’t pretend to know all the variables and dynamics at play, what I do know is this, I have been able to use the LRC to identify a… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

Does anybody know what this is on this satellite loop? Look over South America (bottom of page)
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=car&band=02&length=24

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I looked…not sure what you are referring to?

Roger
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Roger

It looks like a smoke, sand, or dust plume crossing from east to west. But, it seems to be traversing way too fast in a 6 hour loop.

j-ox
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j-ox

‘Gordon’? A missed opportunity to have named this tropical system ‘Gary’.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

First! Love love love the new rainy pattern! WOOT!!!!