Increasing Rain and Tropical System Chances

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Good Saturday bloggers,

We will see rain chances increase each day for the next 5 days as tropical moisture increases from the south and a front drifts in from the north.

We had a few showers and thunderstorms this morning, mostly north of I-70. These were a southern extension of much bigger rain and thunderstorms across Iowa. These small and brief downpours will end by noon. There will be a 10% chance for a few new thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be around 90°.

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This is the map for Labor day. You can see we are in a flow from the Caribbean Sea. This flow will become increasingly more moisture laden as it tracks into our region. As this flow increases, a front will drop in from the north. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms will be along the front across Nebraska and Iowa through Labor day. Then, we will see the higher chances drift south.

Also, look that the red text. Yes, a tropical system is looking more likely according to the models and National Hurricane Center for early next week across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Now, we have been saying this location and timing for a tropical system since January. If one forms, it would likely be named Gordon.

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You can really see the tropical flow in the 5 day rainfall forecast. The bulls eye near New Orleans is showing where the tropical system may occur.

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When we zoom in to our area you can see the 5 day rainfall forecast ranges from around 1″ to 3″ with the heaviest northwest, closer to the front. Some locations may see locally higher rainfall depending on the extent of the tropical downpours.

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LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST: The chances increase each day as moisture from the tropics increases, increasing the coverage of the downpours.

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Here is the latest drought monitor. We are now officially surrounded. This week there should be some serious dents in the drought, not only here, but across Texas and Oklahoma.

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When we zoom in, you can see the areas of severe to exceptional drought across northern Missouri and around Kansas City. This came out on Thursday. Thursday night and Friday morning saw some big rain in northern Missouri.

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Wow! Look at this. 4″ to 7″ of rain occurred in the very areas that needed it. So, there is no doubt that when you add this plus what is yet to come, that the drought is waning over northern Missouri. Rainfall around KC has been piddly in comparison, so the one remaining drought area seems to be the KC area, which is the exact opposite of last summer. KC was one of the only locations in the region, not in a drought. During the next 5 days even the KC area should see a reduction in drought conditions.

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Have  a great, happy and safe Labor day weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

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sedsinkcRichardTdoggHeat Miser Recent comment authors
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Anonymous
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Anonymous

How does storm shield have 80% chance of rain and NWS only have a 30% of rain tomorrow 🤦🏼‍♂️🤷🏼‍♂️🤔

Tdogg
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Tdogg

It’s the same but different!

Adam
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Adam

Here’s the latest on the wave over the Bahamas. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located about a couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. Cloudiness and showers over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas have increased a little bit today. This activity is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to spread westward… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

Sounds more and more likely that it will happen.
This is huge for Gary and the 2020 team.
NHC needs to take notice !

Adam
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Adam

Agreed. Even if it doesn’t go full blown hurricane I would say this is amazing.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The Wunderground forecast shows we could get 4.25″ of rain from tonight through next Friday, with rain coming on 7 consecutive days and no amounts greater than one inch per day. The latest drought monitor shows we’ve gone from D2 to D1 in the past week, and if that forecast holds true, we won’t be in any drought category next week.

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

Let’s review what Gary actually wrote about his forecasted hurricane “within a few days” (whatever that means, he never defined it) of September 1. Here is the link to the blog entry he wrote on January 10, 2018. These are his actual words against which whatever happens in the coming “few days” in the eastern GOM must be compared. No BS’ing allowed in legitimate science. https://weather2020.com/2018/01/10/a-200-day-forecast-for-a-hurricane-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/

Bobbie
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Bobbie

A hurricane will hit Florida in 200 days….ouch!!!

Adam
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Adam

From the referenced blog:

Forecasting A Likely Hurricane Using The LRC

As shown in the first map of this blog, we are predicting a hurricane within a few days of September 1st to be affecting, most likely somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida west coast.

Adam
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Adam

Posted that so those who are too lazy to read would know Bobbie’s above post wasn’t accurate.

JoeK
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JoeK

Seds, Just curious., what is your point? Forecasting a tropical system to develop in a specific geographic location and specific time frame has only been done by the LRC. “within a few days” is narrowing a system down to within a few days before/after the first. Name one other source that has done it with success. Also, interview the folks and cities impacted by hurricanes and ask them if they would be happy knowing each year, an approximate week that would be the most likely week for a hurricane to hit them and I would bet I know the answer… Read more »

Mike
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Mike

According to the CNN report as of 2017, Florida has sustained 117 direct hits by hurricanes in recorded history. The NOAA link is within the link.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/us/hurricanes-landfall-by-state-trnd/index.html

JoeK
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JoeK

Tim,

I left out a key word, 37 MAJOR hurricanes have hit the coast of Florida. Since 1851, 56 hurricanes have made landfall somewhere around the NW coast line ( Panhandle) 12 of them Major hurricanes. That is on average, 1 hurricane to hit the Panhandle area every 3 years. Thanks for catching that.

sedsinkc
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sedsinkc

JoeK, are you on Gary’s payroll? If not, you should be. Or are you actually Gary using a pseudonym so he can turn attack dog on those who detract his precious (literally, since he wants to enrich himself using it) hypothesis? Gary’s words are his words and he can’t take them back. If he is wrong he has to own it, not twist it around somehow to somehow show the LRC was right.

Richard
Guest
Richard

So if that tropical system forms, NO might be the target ?
Hope not. Unlucky 13. 13 years after Katrina

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…how is that unlucky…a tropic storm hits LA is no big deal.

Richard
Guest
Richard

” No big deal ”
If it becomes a hurricane and hits NO, or anywhere, it is a big deal if you live there.
Even a T.S. can wreak havoc. Sounds like you think LA folks don’t matter.

Sounds like the sentiment of your idol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

First of all, pay attention…there is zero chance of it becoming a hurricane…it may not even make a T.S.. Nope, tropical storms are common on the coast and usual don’t do much damage at all. Flash flooding is the main culprit, but again, these aren’t that unusual down there. Of course, you are a drama queen, so enough said there. My “idiol” always helps, so that point didn’t even make any sense. LoL

Richard
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Richard

Pay attention ? Who the hell do you think you are.
You trolled my comment, as usual, then you tell ME to pay attention ?
Back to your mom’s basement Bobby

Tdogg
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Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Richard/Robert Racy
Combat

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Because your comment was silly. New Orleans can handle a possible T.S….its not a big deal. Sometimes you just like drama.

Richard
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Richard

Who are you to judge what is silly.
My first comment was simply I hope NO is not the target
You pompous ass.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Only if your superstitious 😒lol

Ben
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Ben

It takes 10 months to build a drought and about a week to break it. Gotta love Missouri weather

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Here in se MN we really need a break from the rain. Picked up another .70 over night and another 2 to 5 + expected by thur. This on the heels of 13 in or so last WK! looking fwd to fall. Enjoy your holiday everyone and b safe!

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

I recorded .78″ up in Maryville, MO this morning! Things are really getting green. Hoping to mow yard before next shot of rain. NOAA got us getting over 2 inches by Monday night! Ponds will be filling up! #DroughtBusted! Have a great weekend Bloggers!
Michael