Rare Morning Thunderstorms & A Look Into Possible Tropical Development Over The Gulf Of Mexico

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Good morning bloggers,

Well, we haven’t had many mornings like this one.  Here come some thunderstorms.  We will blog later this morning after this moves by.  Here is the radar as of 6:30 AM:

1

There are more thunderstorms behind the leading edge. This is an evolving complex of thunderstorms as a disturbance moves through this morning. A warm front is also approaching from the south. We will look ahead later today into the holiday weekend.

The part of the pattern that Weather2020 predicted to produce a tropical system is arriving in these next seven days as well. Five straight European Model runs have modeled a system in almost the exact spot as projected using the LRC 8 months ago.  The other models have not quite been producing this system like the European model.  Other sources have outlooks out that look just like the Weather2020 one from 8 months ago, an 8 month outlook as good or better than these five to seven day outlooks.  Let’s see how this trends.  Here is the forecast from last nights Euro:

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 6.33.39 AM

That system is almost exactly where Weather2020 projected it to be located.  The water temperatures are very warm, in the mid to upper 80s, so conditions may become quite favorable for rapid intensification.  It still needs to form first.  Let’s see how this trends.

Have a great morning. Let’s discuss these thunderstorms and then we will look ahead later today when we get the time to write up a full blog.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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j-ox
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j-ox

0.85″ in NW Lawrence.

Richard
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Richard
REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Too bad space force isn’t conceptualized to prevent interstellar disasters, not that humans could do anything about the placement of black holes. Space force is strictly for militarization of space, so we can fight our enemies from space. It wouldn’t be a bad idea if it was more about preventing an asteroid impact or interacting with possible hostile aliens ( hey, it could happen). But, those aren’t the goals of Space force, they just want to Balloon the military industrial complex even further.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

https://www.sciencealert.com/plane-fronted-gravitational-wave-collision-produce-black-holes

“To be clear, we can file this into the ‘very maybe probably not’ category of potential apocalypse scenarios. So don’t wave this study around as an excuse to avoid buying any Christmas cards this year.”

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Is it remotely possible that the shaping of this current weather pattern may be in part due to Hurricane Lane nudging underneath the Pacific High just enough to lodge it north enough to allow more tropical moisture to be displaced? Maybe these Pacific Hurricanes help in turn shape our next LRCs?

Skylar
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Skylar

Gary has always dismissed that idea with Atlantic hurricanes since they’re typically so small. Tropical cyclones are more similar to a supercharged MCS than anything that would shift the weather pattern across an entire hemisphere.

Tim
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Tim

True– but would this change when a system becomes extra/post tropical?

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

The 12Z euro appears to have all but dismissed a tropical system; it doesn’t even retain a closed low, let alone a tropical storm or hurricane, for the next 7 days in the gulf.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

POOF!

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

NHC gives it only a 10% chance of developing in 5 days in the GOM.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Tim
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Tim

Wow isnt that something…

Craig
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Craig

Gary, with all of these storm complexes pushing SE today, is this helping to keep the warm front farther SE, too?
If this is the case, would the possibility of more storms overnight and tomorrow morning be increasing?

MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

I just wish all these continuous rounds of precip was snow.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

This is now 2 events in a row we had a very good maturation of a thunderstorm complex right on top of the city. Tuesday the area of showers near Emporia markedly intensified into a QLCS right on top of the city with even the storm over WyCo at times showing a hook on it. This morning the storm as it was near Olathe/Gardner had a very distinct bow shape to it and relative velocity picked up on gustier winds along the edge.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

So I’m going to go out on a limb and if this is part of the next LRC peeking it’s head shaping the current LRC it looks good because there is a longwave right on top of us causing storms to peak out in strength just as they get to the KC metro area, and take a southwesterly track. If this persists, even if the storms are in completely different order or timing, as long as we have storms we should have a few good shots of snow.

Craig
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Craig
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

WOOT!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

It rains like every other day these days, wow…

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Wow this storm is like nothing seen in the past year. It’s literally just regenerating right on top of us right now.

hoopsA1
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hoopsA1

this was likely what the GFS long range precip map was predicting with those 9+ inch rain totals the other day. Southern KS and Mo is currently under flood warnings

Troy
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Troy

It reminds me of 1992. We had been in a drought for a couple years then in July it just started raining all of a sudden and didn’t stop until 1995. (Well not literally). It snowed a bunch that winter and led into the 1993 floods.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Absolutly, positively new pattern influencing now. 2 of these warm front systems in 2 weeks, with the storms on back end vs front end? Yeah, hasn’t happened all year till now and then we get 2 of them ?
#NEWPATTERNISEVIDENT

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

NO…it shows it from Montana to Minnesota, south to missouri, then west to colorado. Not that I give much credence to the Farmers Almanac….but we certainly are due for a snowy winter, that’s for sure.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Farmer’s Almanac for our entire area: Bone chattering cold, plentiful snow. LOL

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Farmers Almanac for our area this winter: Teeth-Chattering Cold, Plentiful Snow. LOL

Troy
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Troy

I have seen that several places from here to CT. Is it just supposed to be cold and snowy everywhere?

Craig
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Craig

Gary, you take a lot of crap when you miss a forecast so you should be complimented when you get it right.
You were adamant yesterday that there would be thunderstorms this morning and that even some training was possible. (Have you seen the new line approaching from the west with a warning near Topeka?)
Seeking confirmation, I turned on Mr. Calm at 9:45 last evening and he forecasted “a 30% chances of some showers but maybe just drizzle”.
Nice job, Gary.

Lisa Lu
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Lisa Lu

What a nice morning thunderstorm! It’s been raining here in OP (119th/Antioch) for quite a while now with thunder/lightning! Great way to start the day!

Tim
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Tim

I have to hand it to Gary for his persistence of this currently non-existent storm. Even the experts at NHC show not a thing in the next 5 days in the Gulf. It would be unbelievable if a system developed there, as he would get all the credit for attributing it to his LRC. BUT Gary– I’m going to point this out now. That tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa– if this “happens” to find its way near Florida in the next 2 weeks– has 0 to do with LRC. If you can show me one instance in… Read more »

Troy
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Troy

Euro has had a tropical storm in the gulf for 7 straight runs though. One that develops close in.

Tim
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Tim

Troy, That is definitely true, but there are other weather models that typically have a better handling of tropical systems which show nothing or inconsistent regarding a FL tropical system. It is strange though why Euro keeps picking up on this, and in my opinion the past couple of years the Euro has had a better handling of storms near the US in forecasting within 3-4 days or so— although the last 24-36 hour of runs have shown this Low above 1000mb , which would barely even make that a depression. lets see how it pans out. For me being… Read more »

Troy
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Troy

It seems its hard for the Pacific and Atlantic to be active at the same time. Maybe its my imagination but it seems to be that way.

Tim
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Tim

What is crazy in the Pacific this year is that the storms that are forming– are in atypical locations. Normally they form a few hundred miles off central america, head W and die out, or head NW/NNW and die– due to cooler waters, dry air, or shear. Seems more than normal are forming futher away in the E Pacfic and then making it out to the central pacific putting Hawaii at risk. I can remember many years would go by and not a single storm would ever be a remote threat to Hawaii. Even Norman’s path is close enough to… Read more »

Mason - Basehor
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Mason - Basehor

FYI: none of the models – the euro or others – show a tropical storm in the gulf. Some show an area of clouds and a low pressure center, but none show a “tropical storm”.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

The pattern seems to have changed a little while back…rain after rain after rain here in Lawrence

Jsquibble
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Jsquibble

I thought the rain was suppose to stay over southern ks according to the maps posted yesterday? I guess you can’t rely on Models 24 hours out from an event

Bobbie
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Bobbie

I’m loving this new LRC! My soybeans will fill their pods now.

Three7
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Three7

GFS continues to not show signs of any tropical development.

Bsmike
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Bsmike

I think the new pattern is starting up. This has not happened one time this year. Hope it continues.