A Look Into The Next Few Chances Of Thunderstorms

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Good morning bloggers,

As August is inching towards its ending, we are finally getting some more consistent rainfalls.  Today’s thunderstorms had more organization than most complexes of thunderstorms that have struggled in our region this entire season.

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Kansas City was just north of the center of this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).  The thunderstorms continued into the late afternoon producing a cold pool of rain cooled air:

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This is likely going to be a factor for where thunderstorms redevelop tonight. If the cold pool washes away and the warm air is able to surge back in, the thunderstorms will form near the Iowa border.  If it holds together long enough, and the warmer air doesn’t take over, then the thunderstorms may form closer to KC.  It is something I should be able to identify by the 10 PM newscast tonight.

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And, then next week. The LRC forecast of a potential tropical system has already verified. The National Hurricane Center has a similar risk to the one that was made by Weather2020 8 months ago.  It is in the same spot for the same time frame. It does not mean there will be a tropical storm or hurricane, however. We will monitor this region closely.  It is quite obviously as forecast just by looking at the GFS model output for early next week.  And, there is a flow from this region to over Kansas City. This may lead to an increased chance of thunderstorms near KC. If a very organized storm forms, like a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely cause sinking air near KC. The impacts will be better defined in the next few days.

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This forecast map above shows the precipitation and  clouds forecast by the GFS model for Tuesday.  Let’s see how this evolves.

Have a great evening.

Gary

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J BrookMikeGaryBlue FlashREAL HUMEDUDE Recent comment authors
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J Brook
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J Brook

It’s important to remember that (good) theory is always developed from data and is a process, not an event. What we often see with the LRC is this emergent process—we should not expect it to be spot on. It’s supposed to move from general ideas to more refined as Gary and others learn more and build the theory from data and observation. The fact that Gary predicted a tropical feature as Real Humedude said, is remarkable and could have huge implications for public safety and planning once the theory is more refined. Patience is needed and expectations should stay in… Read more »

Mike
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Mike

How is a potential tropical system verified before it happens? Don’t forget Gary’s prediction for hurricane to happen near Florida is Sept 1.

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

I commented on yesterday’s blog , this morning, to someone saying that this mornings
Rain was not an MCS. I stand corrected and apologize.

Bobbie
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Bobbie

No storm next week is not a victory for the LRC. You seem to be grasping for straws

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Just that fact Gary predicted there would be a feature is pretty remarkable. There is a tropical feature, right where he said it would be, right when he said it would be there. The conditions probably wont come together for a hurricane, but that’s nearly impossibly to predict that far out. Next time Gary might be better served to just forecast a “tropical wave of any intensity” from months out with LRC, then nowcast them as they come to fruition as every met does. Gary will simply be prepared for them as they come along, that’s pretty remarkable. Now, it… Read more »

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

So it looks to me like in this case the LRC is doing a good job of predicting the fundamental weather pattern, but there are many other factors such as wind shear, sea surface temperatures, even Saharan dust, etc. that go into determining whether a hurricane will develop. So Gary can predict when the players will come to the dance, but whether they are in the mood to dance when they get there is asking too much.

Skylar
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Skylar

The rainfall today was amazing. After the first line of storms moved through it looked like we were done, but just driving around I could see rain shafts forming and darkening in the middle of the clouds. And up until about 2pm we had on and off periods of rain or very tiny thunderstorms moving through. And now it’s sunny and fresh outside. There could not have been a more perfect day. I got about 1.5” near downtown Lawrence.