Thunderstorm Chances Thursday-Labor Day, but There is a Trend

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Good Wednesday bloggers,

Some locations can say that the drought has been seriously dented. Others, well, the same old story.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals for the last two days, since Monday August 27th. Northern Missouri and southeast Iowa were the big winners with rainfall amounts of 2″ to 5″. Eastern Kansas and west central Missouri were the big losers.

1

When you zoom in on northern Missouri you can see there was a band from around Trenton-Chillicothe to the Iowa and Illinois borders that saw many amounts between 2″ and 4″ of rain. These are areas that can say the drought is dented. There were some nice amounts around Maryville, MO as well.

2

Rainfall was still mostly paltry in KC, despite a major line of thunderstorms crossing most of the city Tuesday evening. The line was moving very fast and there were some very thin parts to the line. Amounts ranged from under .05″ to 1.50″ with the heaviest across northern sections of Platte and Clay counties. This mostly came from Tuesday night thunderstorms.

3

Now, let’s take a look at the next few days.

TODAY: The clearing line is located between Kansas City and St. Joseph. This line will drift south through the day, leading to a near perfect evening. Highs will be in the 70s, dropping to around 70° this evening along with a light east to northeast wind.

4

THURSDAY MORNING: The cold front from today will begin lifting north as a warm front. So, the low clouds will return and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri with KC on the northern edge. Lows will be 60°-65°.

5

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The afternoon will be mostly dry under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs will be 75° to 85°. The warm front will be drifting north and during the evening new T-Storms will form from southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas. The best chance will be after 9-10 PM, mostly after the Chiefs game.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: Where will the main thunderstorms track? The 12z GFS and 12z NAM have it tracking mostly into northern Missouri and southern Iowa as the southern extension falls apart. This would leave KC with paltry rainfall totals. This is not set in stone as these can sometimes turn hard south. Data from earlier in the week was suggesting this. 1″ to 4″ of rain will occur where the main area tracks with amounts none to 0.25″ where it does not track.

7

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LABOR DAY: The warm front will be heading north and it will stall then begin wavering back and forth through the weekend. The heaviest rain will be along and mostly north of the front. The data has been trending for the front to be mostly across Nebraska and Iowa, but this is not set in stone. Thunderstorm clusters will play a huge role on the daily location of the front.  Highs will be in the 90s south of the front and 70s/80s to the north. We will have to take the forecast one day at a time.

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Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

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NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

That’s not an MCS, at least from a radars vantage point. No circulation to it.
Unless that clust decides to make a hard right turn or just push, looks like another drink coming in.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

LOL – guess what direction this morning’s MCS is approaching from?

The Southwest!

rofl… Never happened in the LRC and all of a sudden the last 5 all come in this way.

That 4% Gary said is the new LRC must be the direction the storms are coming from, and how much moisture they have.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Perfectly timed rains to fill bean pods!

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Not yours! Unless your backyard has green beans!

RealShawneeDude

TDogg
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TDogg

The
Douchebag
On
gary’s
Blog

KirksvilleDave
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KirksvilleDave

Our rain gauge in Kirksville said 2.49”. We’re now ahead for the month, but 10” behind for the year.

StephenSJOCO
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StephenSJOCO

18z Nam Looks promising for tonight/tomorrow

Kurt
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Kurt

1.5 inches of rain well after the front blew through from about 11:00 pm to 1:30 am on Tuesday night/Wed am. Much needed up here just south of St. Joseph, to continue the green up and get things growing again. Hard to believe St. Joseph officially reported on .7, they are still down over 10 inches at the official reporting station year to date. Hopefully we keep getting rains like this every 5 – 7 days to chip away at our two year deficit and get the sub soil recharge and any ponds that are low filled up. Beans hopefully… Read more »

JoeK
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JoeK

Kurt,

Glad to hear you are finally getting much needed rain up your way. Definitely makes life a little less stressful and will make for a beautiful fall!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

WITCH!!!! :-O

StephenSJOCO
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StephenSJOCO

This seems familiar…stalled front Ia/Mo Border with clusters of heavy rain north and really hot south….smells like May

Roger
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Roger

San Francisco, CA, will hold the Global Climate Action Summit from September 12-14. https://globalclimateactionsummit.org/

California’s latest climate report (August 27, 2018). http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-StatewideSummary.pdf

California Gov. Jerry Brown recently posted on Twitter that the climate report warns of “the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change.” https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/08/28/warning-more-extreme-wildfires-and-coastal-floods-new-report-details-apocalyptic

From Chris Hedges, a former foreign correspondent for 15 years at The New York Times.
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/08/20/saying-goodbye-planet-earth

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

I believe in attempting to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, but some of the stories coming out are totally bogus. Blaming every wildfire on climate change, every flood is now directly related to C.C., NONSENSE We recently learned the Mayan civilization was ultimately upended by an epic drought, possibly a 200 year long duration of 30-50% of the normal precip fell in that span. Can we blame C.C. on that drought, a drought the Likes we’ve never seen? The history of earth showcases many extreme events before man could influence climate. We need to address the issue and reduce carbon emissions… Read more »

Roger
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Roger

I’ve always been a proponent that humans can’t change the climate as much as the sun or other natural cosmic events. Of course not every wildfire is caused from climate change. However, I have seen report after report of fire officials trying to explain what they are witnessing with the Redding and Carr wildfires. They are dumbfounded of their ferocity and unpredictable behaviors.

Jordan
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Jordan
Bill
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Bill

To be honest (and I’ll get slammed for this), but to predict a hurricane in the gulf during September (the beginning of the peak time for hurricane season) isn’t sorcery.

If I made a prediction that a hurricane would occur in the gulf during the first two weeks of September, I’d like my odds of being right.

Tim
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Tim

To give Gary credit– from what I remember his forecast was for it to affect Florida.. which is a little more precise than just affecting the gulf,

JoeK
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JoeK

Bill, I will not “slam” you for your comment. With that said, there is on average, .07 hurricanes each year in or around the Gulf and East coast. There is about a 5% chance a hurricane will impact the state of Florida and that includes the Gulf and Eastern Coast. There have only been 37 hurricanes make landfall in Florida since 1851.There is less than 1% chance a major hurricane impacts the panhandle on any given year. Taking that into consideration, do you still like those odds? These statistics can be fact checked through NASA/NOAA. The reality is this, if… Read more »

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Especially true in this year of below normal hurricane propogation, nothing in the month of August, and all factors pulling against the formation of any system.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser
Dustin TheWind
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Dustin TheWind

Gross.