Look At The Euro Model For Next Weeks Hurricane & Extreme Humidity Will Fuel Thunderstorms

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Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with the title of this blog. How does the LRC help a forecast? Weather2020 knows what the weather pattern will look like hours, days, weeks, and months before it happens.  Conditions will become favorable for the Atlantic basin to become active next week.  Now, exactly what will happen is obviously just beginning to enter the conversations for those with tropical interests. Let’s see what happened while we were sleeping last night:

Euro Day 8 Forecast Valid September 5

This map shows the European model, while the GFS model did come in with a weaker, yet similar solution.  It is in the exact spot as predicted in January for this next week. Now what will really happen? Let’s keep our LRC feet up and keep watching closely.

Today’s Set Up:

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A cold front is approaching the area. It can be argued as being an early fall cold front. It is now that time of the year.  Ahead of this system will be a rich and deep tropical air mass with extreme humidity. A few 80 degree dew point readings may show up ahead of the front. This means that the rainfall rates would likely end up in the 3″ per hour rate and flooding is one of the risks tonight. This front is trying to target some of the driest regions in the current drought situation.

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Most of the thunderstorms will be near the front. Where the front is located between 8 PM and midnight will likely be the location that has the heaviest rainfall.

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By morning this system will be pushing south with cooler air moving in for Wednesday, then the chance of thunderstorms returns later in the week as the moisture tries to flow back north.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

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Real Humedude
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Real Humedude

Man, got very lucky this morning and got a solid 20 minute downpour right when I was thinking the front had blown through dry. 1.25″, had some runoff as well into creek and ponds which was sorely needed. Really hoping we get more tonight, still looking good on that setup as of 12Z

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Possible tropical development near Bahamas, Florida or GOM Labor Day weekend and next week…

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-29-tropical-development-possible-gulf-of-mexico-florida-bahamas?cm_ven=wu_videos

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

Several rain-snow mix events are showing up on the GFS for the far NW of country into Canada. The seasons are changing…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

^ the above being said, the 6z GFS really backs off

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Probably still the old LRC but the moisture pattern has definitely changed. No way in hell we would have even a shot at 6-14″ of rain in the next 7 days with the old moisture cycle.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Wow, the storm must have knocked out the instruments at the downtown airport. The last reading they are showing is at 5:16 pm and it is showing a heavy thunderstorm with west wind 40 gusting to 63!

Nick
Guest
Nick

Had some nice post frontal storms here in St. Joe. Missed the earlier stuff but got the second round.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Humidity on my Ambient is at 99. Temp is 75 dew point is 74.7.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

78 dewpoint in Lawrence….damn

Bobbie
Guest
Bobbie

This new LRC is acting like the old one today.

DaveC
Guest
DaveC

Humidity in GV (on my la crosse) went up to 74% after the rain. It’s like fuel spilled all over the place, just need a match to light some thunderstorms up and get some heavy rain.

Larry
Guest
Larry

No joy in NW Lawrence; just 0.01″. The storms that moved through the metro formed to my south and east. A weak wind shift line shows up on radar now, certainly not the forecast that Gary detailed at 6:30 PM. My uninformed opinion tells me the rain is over for tonight. I hope I’m wrong.

Nate
Guest
Nate

White Cessna’s at it again…poofed out about 3 miles west of Southern Lees Summit, just a little rain shower for more mowing

Jill
Guest
Jill

So is that it or might we see more tonight?

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

I think that was the heaviest storm of the year, at least for my location. Trees and street lights swaying and bending. Near whiteout conditions. Power flashed on and off. Very heavy storm!

Emaw
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Emaw

A quick .50″ in north Olathe earlier, nice. I’m having a hard time buying round 2 later though. Any of you mets out there have any thoughts on that?

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

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Anonymous
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Anonymous

Yeah right!

Not Neville miller
Guest
Not Neville miller

Crazy.. MT just kinda brushed rain chances off for the next five days.. couple of scattered showers Friday and Saturday.

Nam shows nada.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Nothing here

Weathermankumke
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Weathermankumke

Another good soaking for JoCo. I wonder how many idiots with 0 degrees will say it’s “the government” giving us the rain

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

We took a whacking here in Prairie Village – excessive winds, hail – looks like some trees are down.

Mattinleavenworth
Guest
Mattinleavenworth

Good thing snow miser claimed poof for this evenings storms!

Kurt, it is a line of storms very long at that.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

But not here so doesn’t count lol

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

It worked!

Interesting thing, the NAM models from yesterday and this morning were more accurate than the last couple runs.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Actually, come to think of it I wrote POOF this morning in regards to Gary’s hurricane prediction, not today’s storms.

Mary
Guest
Mary

Heavy rain, big thunder and lightning, high winds, big branches down in Shawnee…haven’t seen anything like it in a while

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Where and when? I thought this was supposed to be a solid line around now, and nothing happened up here. It was all northwest and now the line/cluster down by KC. Is this it for us up near St. Joseph? No wonder we are over 11 inches behind YTD still lol.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Big storms down here in Lenexa, lots of lightning. Not much severe though. Right on my time prediction – 5PM sharp. Not midnight! Fix your powercast!

Matt
Guest
Matt

Watch possible.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

what happened to the line, there is a break around St. Joseph; really open for redevelopment to the west and that it fills in. Need a another good rain after a couple days of winds. Enjoyed not having to water for a few days.

Jsquibble
Guest
Jsquibble

A nice cluster of cells headed for the metro!

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Possible golfball sized hail with 70 mph winds?
comment image?d9e45160df1049cc083d8fd70cfead38

birdieman
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birdieman

I don’t know gents, but I’ve been looking at Brazilian models all day and it appears hot and wet….geez you guys😀

Ravi Kondapalli
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Ravi Kondapalli

Gary,

Whats the final story for tonight? Are we getting missed?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, I know someone at work going to a royals game tonight….what is the rain forecast for that?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I wouldn’t call this a fall front, we are in the 80s behind it. Not even going to be a widespread event, mainly NE of KC proper. First true fall cold front will blast through entire region with plenty cool air behind it, big solid line of storms, and dump us into 40s for lows with crisp dry air behind it. Until then it’s just more summer pattern

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Weather Underground predicts you’ll get 0.45″ between 11 PM & 4 AM. They’ve been fairly accurate for this zone, so let’s see how that pans out.
https://maps.wunderground.com/us/mo/hume/zmw:64752.1.99999

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Well, that forecast fizzled for your area. We picked up 1/4″ between 10 AM & 3 PM. For such measly rainfall, it was certainly accompanied by a lot of lightning and thunder, but the wind wasn’t bad.
We are now at 4.57″ for August and 21.71″ ytd.

Troy
Guest
Troy

The cool air is trailing the front by a ways for some reason. It was 74 here this morning about 8 when the front went through. It got up to 80 and was partly sunny and then about 2 pm the stratus deck rolled in and we are down to 68 with a definite fall feel to the North Breeze and drier air.

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

Gary, and others: So . . . I’m hoping your 12-week forecast rings true for the holiday weekend — mostly dry around here. But the models have me freaked out — a lot show quite a deluge of rain — perhaps our biggest soaking in months (biggest precip event of 2018?). Quite a contrast. Time will tell! Here’s the W2020 forecast for KC: Current 91°F / 71°F The weather for the great benefit event Head For The Cure looks to most likely be dry with a south breeze at 10-20 mph, and gusty. Expect temperatures in the lower 70s early… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Hard to tell in my Gravatar but thats a pick of one of out washouts. No trains on these tracks for prolly 4 days

Kathy G.
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Kathy G.

Gary…which of the three models do you prefer?

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Starting to think this event will totally bypass my area, mostly KC and points North. HRRR isn’t very encouraging, at least there are other chances showing up.

Tdogg
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Tdogg

Your yard (what you call pasture) in Shawnee will be just fine.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Well here’s the thing.. the models always show some type of tropical system forming somewhere in the Atlantic 5+ days out this time of year– but this isn’t shown here unless it fits the LRC. The LRC in late 2017.. in winter..has zero to do with the summer ITCZ in summer. I chalk up the models to coincidence at this point. Although I have no problem bowing down to Gary and eating my words if indeed this does happen.. as this would have happened twice.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

On your knees serf, and bow down to the Great Lezak. LoL 😉

Tim
Guest
Tim

Lol!!!

matt
Guest
matt

High Dew Points and in 90’s means flew for Severe or Strong Storms.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

I’m actually somewhat impressed that the models are showing signals for tropical development, as he said we’ll wait and see what happens regarding actual development. JoeK, I was enjoying our debate as well, I’m sorry your feelings get hurt whenever someone even remotely challenges your hero’s theory, or “throws darts” as you put it. I will be truly impressed, as I’ve said before, if this does verify as it appears it might. I hope it does, almost more for you than for GL.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Not sure why you have to say things like “your hero’s theory”. How do you know Gary is that guys’ hero simply because he agrees with his theory? I don’t agree with all Gary says, but a lot of it I do. Is there a need to get a little dig in with comments like that just because someone challenges you? If everyone keeps it professional, it’s all good. Disagree, give individual opinions…..I’m all for that. Why the need to quasi name call? Most of your posts are done very well.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Don’t think it’s that big a deal, but I hear what you’re saying. He (JoeK) seems to be the biggest proponent of the theory, more power to him. He seems truly offended when someone dares to challenge it and can be pretty snarky about it. No sweat though, unless the Russians lob a few our way or Yellowstone blows tonight we’re all gonna be fine.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Thanks for the reply. Yellowstone…….I wish we had that crystal ball to know. 10,000 years away? 1,000 or less?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

I am not snarky nor am I offended. I simply challenge opposing opinions to a factual or scientific debate rather than somebody posting subjective perspectives.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

LYITC41, First, I absolutely did not get my feelings hurt. I appreciate intellectual debate versus the typical name calling and absolute denial without analysis. Yes, do believe in the LRC and gladly make that known AND will always challenge others to a healthy debate. Regarding the throwing darts, let’s be honest, you attempted to correct me on something very insignificant ” born from Africa vs. the coast of Africa” really? AND the 15% statistic was just that, a statistic and is why I stated it amounts to a very low chance, almost zero as it basically is. Just in case… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Also to point out, 80 degree dewpoints in turn with a cold front and lift approaching never happened with this LRC.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Storms already firing up like the HRRR suggested out west. Sure it’s gonna be Midnight, Gary? Looks more like 5-6 PM for the heaviest rain in KC based on 3 KM NAM and radar trends.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Already getting loud thunder here north of Manhattan, so it looks like the NWS shouldn’t have changed yesterday’s estimate on the timing from 10 AM to 3 PM.
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Three7
Guest
Three7

Are we still under a severe weather risk here?

matt
Guest
matt

Enhanced Risk WI/IL.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

NAM seems to be going POOF.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I take that back, it’s just delaying it instead by a few hours. Which is fine with me, will let me do some yard work when I get home today.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Do you have any links to model forecasts to rain totals for tonight?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

This is the 3km NAM through 7am tomorrow:
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You should learn to use the model maps at tropicaltidbits.com and/or pivotalweather.com, really comes in handy to learn them.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Rain seems to be forming out west pretty early unless that stuff is supposed to die down before storms reform.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

The GFS looks like the only model that was hinting at those storms popping up nearby. All the others have the area dry this morning.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

What’s the GFS showing for rain totals?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I’m headed to our washout sites now hopefully I can take some pics and send to Gary

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Absolutely Gary, and more on the way!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Early estimates of 12 to 14 inches of rain overnight wow

Three7
Guest
Three7

Well, they do say a picture is worth 1000 words.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Up here in Minnesota we have washouts everywhere. Numerous locations where our railroad tracks are gone. We will have several days of constant work before our trains are moving again. More rain is on the way too! Rainfall rates of 7 in an HR being reported!!

Michael
Guest
Michael

Send it down here and bust are drought! We’ll take it off your hands!
Michael

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Our not are.

Looks like it might be coming down our (not are) way anyway:
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Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

And the new GFS too:
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Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

And yet again. This time it looks like more than 12 inches over KC the next two weeks:
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