High Based Thunderstorms To Start The Week

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Good morning bloggers,

The week begins with high based thunderstorms on this Monday morning.  Sunny The Weather Dog posed for this picture with the altocumulus bases, around 9,000 feet up, and a few rain shafts, and even a little rainbow:

DSCN4979

The past few days have had a high of 93° Saturday, 90° Sunday, and today will likely reach 91° to  94° later this afternoon.  A cold front will then approach the area.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: The high based thunderstorms will weaken before noon and fall apart.  There is a 30% chance of one near you, which means there is a 70% chance you will stay dry.  Mostly sunny this afternoon and windy. South winds 15-30 mph. High: 93°
  • Tonight:  A few clouds with no chance of rain.  Breezy and warm conditions will continue with a low of 76°.
  • Tuesday: Partly cloudy, hot, and very humid.  There is a 30% chance of late afternoon thunderstorms. High:  91°
  • Tuesday Night:  Mostly cloudy with an 80% chance of thunderstorms. A few may be severe early in the evening around sunset.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. Low:  63°
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High:  80°

KCI Airport had 0.20″ of rain this morning. There is a good chance of heavy thunderstorms forming near a cold front Tuesday evening.  Here is a look at the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM Central Time Tuesday:

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The GFS has been the most aggressive with the rainfall generation from this set up. It is showing one to two inch totals in the area. The timing is good for the front to move through a very moist and unstable air mass, and it seems strongly likely that we will see some of our heavier thunderstorms of the year Tuesday evening.

day2otlk_0600

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.  From the Storm Prediction Center:  Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central plains through the upper midwest and Great Lakes region, into New England Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

3km NAM shows the storms hitting at 5 PM peak heating.

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

Is there a poof watch yet? 0z NAM and 18z GFS showing reduced QPF for the incoming front.

Weathermankumke
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Weathermankumke

No because the 3kNAM matched runs on the 00z runs the last two nights. Should get 1-2 inches in the metro as the line slammes into the metro. Probably some 75mph wind gusts and some quarter size hail with the stronger cells embedded along the wind shift

Aidan
Guest
Aidan

Is this a political blog ?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

TRUMP

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

And Kobach

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Do you know there is medication for your syndrome.
https://m.nasdaq.com/markets/soybean.aspx?timeframe=6m

Tdogg wannabe
Guest
Tdogg wannabe

Richard, I wanted to rewind a few blogs and comment on a few critical points. A number of times, you have criticized Gary for questioning why the NWS issued a STW for our area and when I mean criticized, I mean really criticized yet a competitor recently posted on his blog regarding this very subject and you screamed with delight. As a matter of fact, I believe it was something like ” Outstanding ! Exceptional ! 100% agree with you.. Quite the eye-opener. Wow Made my head spin to see those numbers. I hope inroads will be made for a… Read more »

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

Biggest snow in AUG HISTORY tomorrow. WalMartMike fire up the snowplows of you haven’t sold them in desperation yet!!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m surprised that there isn’t a wind advisory. We’ve got limbs coming down in PV KS.

Matt
Guest
Matt

At the moment the SPC has part of KS in Slight Risk.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Link ?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Tuesday.

Tdogg
Guest
Tdogg

LRC

Lonely
Richard
Clueless

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This link to the NWS in Topeka shows a map of where the severe weather is most likely to happen on Tuesday (as well as the timing).
comment image

Jill
Guest
Jill

Are the recent rain events a sign of what’s to come with the new LRC, or are we still too early for that?)

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

If you ask Doug Heady, he will say yes. Gary does not think so.

Lary Gezak
Guest
Lary Gezak

I think so myself, but I’m no meteorologist. We’ve had three events that have all looked different than anything else in this current LRC. I think the new pattern is having influences (which is good).

Richard
Guest
Richard

Logan Pass Montana first snow of the season today.
And on the other side of the continent Toronto has a heat warning.

North America = diverse climate

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

3 things continue to be magic:

1. LRC.
2. Mower Mike’s rain gauges around town.
3. Bigfoot.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Wow! Watch this a couple of times, and notice how the blues change to reds, starting, interestingly enough, more or less in the 1990s… and how the chart turns predominantly red only very recently…
The climate is indeed changing, and very rapidly now…

Temperature Anomalies by Country 1880-2017 based on NASA GISTEMP data.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/43350961005/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Propaganda. Not real.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

So did I see the old farmers almanac and the farmers almanac contradict each other? Lol. I don’t put much stock into those but they can be fun to read.

Three7
Guest
Three7

LRC****

Stupid typist!

Mason - Basehor
Guest
Mason - Basehor

This is this big week – the week the LRC has been waiting for all year.

It was back in January that Gary made his bold forecast at a meteorologist conference and here online for a Gulf of Mexico hurricane—and possibly a major one—to impact Florida September 1.

There was much debate here about that forecast, but Gary has stuck with it, and now the week has finally arrived. Whew!

I’m not seeing much on the models yet, but am sure curious to see if Gary can pull this one off. If so, it’s gonna be EPIC!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

The NHC recently said it’s downgrading its hurricane forecast due to excessive Sahara dust storms, so I’d say there’s a good chance his prediction will go poof.

Can the LRC predict Sahara dust storms? :-/

Three7
Guest
Three7

Well, Gary seems to think the LC>all other variables, or at least that’s what I got from some of his posts about this last week.

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Sahara dust should have no effect on a GULF forming tropical system, Cape Verde systems yes,not a gulf born system. Dust should not be an excuse if the system does not materialize, but he did say there would be no excuses if this is the case.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

LYITC41…You may want to tell NASA and NOAA that Sahara dust doesn’t impact Atlantic hurricanes https://earthdata.nasa.gov/user-resources/sensing-our-planet/saharan-dust-versus-atlantic-hurricanes

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Read what I said: GULF BORN HURRICANES. Cape Verde storms for sure, but your article, while interesting, says nothing about Saharan dust affecting hurricanes born in the Gulf. Thanks for it though, very informative.

Richard
Guest
Richard

What percentage of hurricanes are Gulf born
Or major hurricanes ?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

you could probably Google search and find that stat.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Richard,

Approximately 15% of major hurricanes come from other than Africa-Cape Verde. So basically, it is rare to have Gulf born Major hurricanes.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

LYITC41….I read what you wrote originally. You do understand the majority of major hurricanes come from Africa right? I believe 85% to be more precise. Sahara dust storm is a very rare event and last time it occurred was is 2006. Not sure how and if they can be predicted. Think about the above statistic, 85% of all major hurricanes are born in africa ( Cape Verde systems) so taking that into consideration, you effectively reduce any chance of a major hurricane in the Gulf to almost zero. Sahara dust can act as a major impact factor and disrupt atmospheric… Read more »

LYITC41
Guest
LYITC41

Actually they’re born off Africa, but hair splitting aside, I’m no math whiz but 15, 10, or even 5 percent, doesn’t equal zero chance. Looking back through the years quite a few hurricanes have actually formed in the Gulf, but the lion’s share do form in the eastern tropical Atlantic, where, yes, Saharan dust can have a significant impact. Was the prediction for a Gulf born system or a system from anywhere? Looking back at the Jan prediction, he wasn’t clear about that, possibly covering his rear.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

LYITC41…Statistically speaking, when only a 15% exists, it is typically seen as a very low or almost zero chance. I was attempting to have an intelligent debate with you regarding this subject however, you lost me with your closing comment. I can’t debate something with somebody that searches for any reason to throw darts rather than view objectively. Now, the system is still trying to come together in the Gulf so dust or no dust, it sure will be interesting to see what happens.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Latest GFS shows a veritable deluge of rain the next couple weeks:
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Lary Gezak
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Lary Gezak

Seems like a subtle changing in patterns to me… hmm.

Three7
Guest
Three7

I don’t think there’s any question at this point. I mean, I’m sure there’s some seasonal differences in there, but it shouldn’t change the fact that “the ridge” isn’t making our rain just vanish into thin air anymore.

Not Neville miller
Guest
Not Neville miller

But, but, but.. the LRC

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

GFS should be GES. Because that’s what it is, a wild guess.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

And the new run shows a deluge, just within the next week:
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Jsquibble
Guest
Jsquibble

If this was to verify, the drought region will be the wettest part in the entire country

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Looks like it just moved the deluge from Missouri to Kansas. Next run, who knows?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

And now 3 runs in a row show a deluge for our general area:
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Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It just keeps coming and coming…gotta love it!