The Same Things Just Keep Happening

/The Same Things Just Keep Happening

The Same Things Just Keep Happening

Good morning bloggers,

The drought ended over most of the western half of Kansas this summer down to Amarillo. This is pretty amazing when you think how dry it was out there as we moved into the late spring months.  Thunderstorm complexes tracked repeatedly over that region, and somehow the drought expanded and worsened farther east near Kansas City.  It has been one of the more frustrating weather patterns to describe. The good news:  A new pattern will set up in less than two weeks, uh I mean months.

Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 7.34.06 AM

The risk of severe weather today will be shifting over the northeastern USA:

day1otlk_1200

Today’s Weather Video:

The European Model, that had KC in the heavy rain, has also shifted away.  Maybe something different will happen Sunday night into Monday, but we have been through this every single time from our winter storms, to our spring storms, and now through our summer storms. There have been so many chances.

Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 7.30.57 AM

Have a great day!

Gary

2018-08-18T08:53:17+00:00August 17th, 2018|General|37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Lary Gezak August 17, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    Gary, using the LRC, what will Sept be like from a temperature standpoint. Will we eventually cool down and transition into fall? Or will we remain hot?

    • LYITC41 August 17, 2018 at 9:38 am - Reply

      If he doesn’t answer go to CPC, they’ll give you a very general idea about that. (not necessarily accurate)

      • Lary Gezak August 17, 2018 at 11:08 am - Reply

        I check the CPC and they’re usually very nonchalant with their forecasts. The only ones that validate are their short term forecasts.

  2. Mike August 17, 2018 at 8:23 am - Reply

    “A new pattern will set up in less than two weeks.” You mean two months? I thought the new LRC begins to evolve in October.

  3. NoBeachHere August 17, 2018 at 8:29 am - Reply

    I think you meant 2 months Gary but absolutely none of us would be unhappy if a new pattern did start in 2 weeks.

    • Gary August 17, 2018 at 10:11 am - Reply

      Yes, I meant two months, but I was hoping it would be faster. The latest NAM has almost no rain in spots for this next storm. Your assessments are correct. Here we go again. WE WILL KNOW when this pattern is over.

      Gary

      • Mr. Pete August 17, 2018 at 2:09 pm - Reply

        What storm?

  4. NoBeachHere August 17, 2018 at 8:40 am - Reply

    In a reflection of this LRC, we pretty much know what’s going to happen, 3 to 10 days out, storm looks good for us. Then event day and something happens and pooooof, hit and miss as far as precipitation goes. Temp wise, I’m still searching for other reviews and additional info as to why we went from cold/cool to hot. Only review I have found was posted in Science Daily. While, if that review holds weight, then as the northern latitude circulation reorganizes, we’ll stay warm but not hot. It’s possible we have a few hot days because of storm systems still cycling through, an extended heat wave I just don’t see happening. As an arm chair meteorologist, I’m holding on to hope that a subtle difference of a storm comes through to produce something of significance for our area. But absolutely if that RRR out west doesn’t move farther away from the West coast or morph into something that allows for SW digging, with no quasi permanent ridge, we can pretty much have a good idea as to what the next LRC will behave. Yes there will be or can possibly be a storm or two that will produce but unless the RRR breaks completely down, it’s possible we will see more of the same.

  5. Mr. Pete August 17, 2018 at 9:01 am - Reply

    Gary, what time will the rain move in on Sunday?

  6. Fred Nolan August 17, 2018 at 9:03 am - Reply

    Its crazy how those storms last night evolved. I watched several several lines that looked promising yet were so deceiving. Managed only a few sprinkles near K10 and K7 in Olathe. Luckily, managed to get close to an inch from the storms on Tuesday.

  7. Farmgirl August 17, 2018 at 9:08 am - Reply

    I’m still as dry as burnt toast in SE Miami county. Rain was all around except for the dome over the far southern part of the county. Pumpkins never developed which we use a fall fodder for the sheep. Looking forward to fall and maybe we will get some showers to help the pastures out for winter grass stocking.

    • Real Humedude August 17, 2018 at 9:39 am - Reply

      I’m in same boat Farmgirl, we missed the rain yesterday too. I was certain we couldn’t get missed, but it keep running into a wall at state line and never made it east. Only got some dinky showers to settle dust, about .1″ this morning form a few little showers. Ft. Scott and Nevada have been getting huge rains this year, they get them every time! Storms have tended to train this year like no other, they refuse to move progressively, just dump in one spot, die, and redevelop elsewhere in very frustrating fashion.

      • Troy August 17, 2018 at 12:46 pm - Reply

        How much of that do you think is due to the dry ground? Do the storms with not much steering flow just follow the path of the most low level moisture which is not in your direction?

  8. Heat Miser August 17, 2018 at 10:40 am - Reply

    I thought this next storm was supposed to be widespread rain.

    • Anonymous August 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

      Another bright light heard from.

    • Jordan August 17, 2018 at 12:23 pm - Reply

      The storm this past weekend was supposed to be as well (well, up until the day of the storm, when they changed the forecast.) I was supposed to get 1″-1.5″, and ended up with .3″.

      • Heat Miser August 17, 2018 at 12:37 pm - Reply

        but Gary expecting more out of this next one…didn’t seem to have much question about it

        • Jordan August 17, 2018 at 5:53 pm - Reply

          Ahh, gotcha.

          • Heat Miser August 17, 2018 at 8:27 pm - Reply

            D’OH!

  9. Mason - Basehor August 17, 2018 at 11:34 am - Reply

    Gary —

    You briefly mentioned Amarillo in this post. Earlier in the year, you frequently highlighted their drought as a touchstone of this year’s pattern. In the winter and spring — the first half of this pattern (per your theory), Amarillo was remarkably dry. You showed them in posts many times. They went something like a hundred days with little more than traces of precip.

    But then you stopped mentioning them this summer. In the last few months, they’ve had wave after wave of heavy rain, entirely erasing their winter/spring deficit. It was like night and day; a switch was flipped.

    How do you explain this with your theory?

    Here, in the KC region, you said your theory is supported by our drought; it is the same cycle as last winter and spring that has continued.

    But if that same winter/spring pattern has continued; how did Amarillo go from record drought to drenched in the middle of your cycle?

    • NoBeachHere August 17, 2018 at 12:10 pm - Reply

      Mason, I agree with your assessment but to a degree. Remember last year in the KC region we were kind of dry then May or so it just started to rain and rain prolifically. If you also remember, that 45 to 65 miles outside of the KC region, it was really dry. I have no idea of all the dynamics involved that lead to KC proper getting swamped but outside of the proper, crispy. I know your comment was towards Gary and I’m not backing him up or bashing him but Amarillo just was in the right for all the players to come together for good rain where as this year, not for KC and surrounding region.

  10. Jon Behle August 17, 2018 at 11:43 am - Reply

    Simple,

    The center of the drought or where areas miss can still wonder around but be the same pattern. There’s a reason many heavy snows in a more active pattern will hit Central Iowa in part of a winter then maybe SE Iowa and Illinois for another.

    • Mason - Basehor August 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm - Reply

      So…if the theory allows the drought to ‘wonder around,’ then does that mean it still would have fit the theory of KC, in the spring (right in the middle of this LRC), had suddenly wound up in record-wet territory rather than exceptional drought territory?

      So in summary, in the spring, the LRC would have supported a forecast for exceptional drought or for a wet summer; either would have fit the theory?

      • f00dl3 August 17, 2018 at 2:39 pm - Reply

        The drought wandered around due to the fact of the jet stream retreating allowing the southern branch to take over in areas that were in drought, and causing the ridge to be trapped between the branches of the jet stream.

  11. Jordan August 17, 2018 at 12:35 pm - Reply

    I thought that 70% prediction for the rain Sunday/Monday was a little… preemptive. This weather pattern can swallow the business end of a shotgun.

  12. Anonymous August 17, 2018 at 1:07 pm - Reply

    Don’t point out obvious contradictions to the LRC, Mason. You’ll get no answer from Gary and you’ll bring on the wrath of Mower Mike and the other LRC disciples. “It’s the same, but different”, “seasonal differences”, etc. allow for the theory to be shoe-horned into virtually any discussion. It’s MAGIC, I tells ya!

  13. Mike Holm August 17, 2018 at 1:28 pm - Reply

    There is no doubt that the weather cycles. How could anybody dispute this pattern that were in. I explain to people this way, The LRC works where it works. I use the LRC to predict where the snowfall is going to occur for skiing. Last year the weather pattern for the Pacific Northwest cycled perfectly. It was working great and I was able to time 2 separate storms (trips) of 15+ inches. It also works great on the East Coast resorts. Colorado resorts are a little shaky. They didn’t start to become regular until February of last year.

    I don’t understand all the dynamics, especially where we are this year in Kansas City. It seems storms come to die here but are also born here. It’s like there’s a big jet wash above us. But the LRC definitely works—where it works.

  14. Jordan August 17, 2018 at 1:47 pm - Reply

    GFS has us bone dry through the beginning of September. If this system doesn’t produce, soybeans and other fall crops are going to suffer just like the corn did this summer. We going to plant an acre or so of some different brassicas for a fall harvest, but there’s no point this year.

    • REAL HUMEDUDE August 17, 2018 at 3:25 pm - Reply

      Can’t trust GFS that far out. Back in late July the GFS was bone dry though mid August, but it quickly changed and I’ve had about 3″ this month so far. Not outta the drought yet, but the grass is at least greened up and growing ever so slowly. Ponds could use a heavy run off but nothing is on verge of drying up down here.
      Now,Sundays storm is doing it’s same LRC routine. Looked great yesterday, now NAM has big dry slot and we get screwed again. Alot of time for more solutions there but you get the drift, expect the lesser amounts

      • Jordan August 17, 2018 at 3:54 pm - Reply

        I know the GFS sucks more than a few days out, it just looks like a bad omen for my neck of the woods. I’m still getting missed for the most part up here. The Drought monitor has me listed in D4 now, which seems about right. We got about .1″ yesterday, .3″ out of the weekend storm, and are sitting at just over 1.7″ over the past 30 days. If you wouldn’t mind sending some of that moisture my way, I would appreciate it lol.

        • REAL HUMEDUDE August 17, 2018 at 4:01 pm - Reply

          Poured in Shawnee last night, you keep missing it by smallest margin. Now that I think about it, I have been missing in same fashion. Very weird drought

          • Jordan August 17, 2018 at 4:07 pm - Reply

            I got hit with the thinnest part of that small line that formed just northwest of the city yesterday evening. We had the bottom edge of a decent-looking cell heading right for us, and on radar it looked like it jumped over us. We were literally missed by blocks (again).

        • Heat Miser August 17, 2018 at 4:21 pm - Reply

          sometimes it sucks a day out

          • Jordan August 17, 2018 at 5:55 pm - Reply

            LOL especially this summer.

  15. Jay August 18, 2018 at 8:31 am - Reply

    Gary, in order for this next storm system to bring us the best chance of widespread rain, I assume we are needing the low to track south of the KC area?

    • Gary August 18, 2018 at 9:07 am - Reply

      Jay,

      That would be the case during the winter. At this time of the year, it is not necessarily the case, but since most systems track way to our north, other things must happen. Let’s see how it sets up.

  16. Fred Nolan August 18, 2018 at 10:17 am - Reply

    “The same things keep happening”…
    Like getting up in the morning and reading the same blog for a second day…

    Things are turning a little greener around parts of KC so thats a good sign. Ready for a nice long stretch of fall for sure.

Leave A Comment